A tale of two finals


AO19 and FO20 finals share a lot of similarities

  • A Nadalovic final held at the favorite slam of one of the players
  • Prior to the final the losing player was generally playing well and most expected a tight match
  • in both cases one of the players was going for the DCGS
  • Both were three set beat downs

hard to say that one was clearly more dominant than the other although I give A019 a slight edge
  • Nadal won more games in total when losing than Novak (8 to 7)
  • nadal also delivered a bagel, which Novak did not
  • but Novak came closer to forcing a fourth set at FO20 than Nadal at AO19. Novak came 3 points from a fourth set. The closest Nadal came was 12 points
  • Novak’s lows were lower but his highs were higher in FO20 than Nadal in AO19. Novak was getting better each set and was 5-4 0-15 with Nadal serving. Nadal never won more than 3 games in any set.
  • novak beat Nadal at AO19 keeping him at 53 points. In contrast Novak won 77 points in the FO20

some lessons from AO19 that likely will apply to FO20

  • for all the talk of surface homogenization the reality is that there are but differences in results by surface
  • and that means you can’t extrapolate from the final win in one surface to others. Novak did not have it easier at the FO19 because he won convincingly the AO19. The same will likely happen to Nadal and the AO21

finally, there‘s a good chance we will have more of these Nadalovc finals. They have utterly dominated the last 10 slams (Novak winning 5 snd Nadal winning 4) and I think they will continue to dominate the next 10 slams as well