Active players with a better clay resume than Jannik Sinner

[Kralingen]

Seen a ton of Sinner clay hype recently, some even penciling him in as the favourite (!) for Roland Garros. I understand that he’s still young and after the AO win is on a star trajectory. He is playing amazing this year. I even believe that he will win RG one day and win many clay titles.

However, we are getting ahead of ourselves to put him as the RG favourite on a surface where he’s done very little so far.

His current clay resume:
- one clay title (a 250 in Umag).
- One RG QF
- 2 appearances in Masters SFs on the surface. Only 3 total QFs in clay Masters.
- just one top 5 win, 4 top 10 wins total
He has done very little on clay.

List of active players with a better clay resume:

Old guys:
Rafael Nadal (no introduction needed)
Novak Djokovic (3x RG champion)
Stan Wawrinka (RG champion)
Andy Murray (2x Masters winner, RG finalist)
Dominic Thiem (3x RG Finalist)
Dusan Lajovic (Masters final, win over Djokovic)
Fabio Fognini (Masters title, win over Nadal)
Diego Schwartzman (RG SF, Masters final)
Kei Nishikori (2 Masters finals)
Gael Monfils (Masters final, RG SF)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas (Masters final, 4 clay titles)
Richie Gasquet (Masters final, 3 clay titles)
JL Struff (Masters final, clay title)
Benoit Paire (3 clay titles, Masters SF)
Marco Cecchinato (RG SF, 3 clay titles)
Marin Cilic (RG SF, 2 clay titles)

Under 30s:
Matteo Berrettini (Masters final, 3 clay titles)
Christian Garin (5 clay titles)
Alexander Zverev (3x Masters winner)
Casper Ruud (2x RG finalist)
Stefanos Tsitsipas (RG finalist, 3x Masters winner)
Andrey Rublev (Masters winner, beat Nadal/Djokovic)
Daniil Medvedev (Masters winner)
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (2x Masters winner, RG SF)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Masters finalist, beat Djokovic)
Holger Rune (Masters finalist, 3 clay titles, beat Djokovic)

This is not to put Sinner down as he is still young and learning the surface. He may well get himself above some of these players this season. However, as it currently stands, he has done nothing on clay to be considered the RG favourite.

 

[Sport]

Why wouldn't Nadal need an introduction? He needs an introduction like everyone else.

You act as if Nadal had won 14 RG or something...

 

[nolefam_2024]

Seen a ton of Sinner clay hype recently, some even penciling him in as the favourite (!) for Roland Garros. I understand that he’s still young and after the AO win is on a star trajectory. He is playing amazing this year. I even believe that he will win RG one day and win many clay titles.

However, we are getting ahead of ourselves to put him as the RG favourite on a surface where he’s done very little so far.

His current clay resume:
- one clay title (a 250 in Umag).
- One RG QF
- 2 appearances in Masters SFs on the surface. Only 3 total QFs in clay Masters.
- just one top 5 win, 4 top 10 wins total
He has done very little on clay.

List of active players with a better clay resume:

Old guys:
Rafael Nadal (no introduction needed)
Novak Djokovic (3x RG champion)
Stan Wawrinka (RG champion)
Andy Murray (2x Masters winner, RG finalist)
Dominic Thiem (3x RG Finalist)
Dusan Lajovic (Masters final, win over Djokovic)
Fabio Fognini (Masters title, win over Nadal)
Diego Schwartzman (RG SF, Masters final)
Kei Nishikori (2 Masters finals)
Gael Monfils (Masters final, RG SF)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas (Masters final, 4 clay titles)
Richie Gasquet (Masters final, 3 clay titles)
JL Struff (Masters final, clay title)
Benoit Paire (3 clay titles, Masters SF)
Marco Cecchinato (RG SF, 3 clay titles)
Marin Cilic (RG SF, 2 clay titles)

Under 30s:
Matteo Berrettini (Masters final, 3 clay titles)
Christian Garin (5 clay titles)
Alexander Zverev (3x Masters winner)
Casper Ruud (2x RG finalist)
Stefanos Tsitsipas (RG finalist, 3x Masters winner)
Andrey Rublev (Masters winner, beat Nadal/Djokovic)
Daniil Medvedev (Masters winner)
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (2x Masters winner, RG SF)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Masters finalist, beat Djokovic)
Holger Rune (Masters finalist, 3 clay titles, beat Djokovic)

This is not to put Sinner down as he is still young and learning the surface. He may well get himself above some of these players this season. However, as it currently stands, he has done nothing on clay to be considered the RG favourite.

Let's take context also in here.
In Under 30 players only Alcaraz and Rune are younger than Sinner who achieved more on clays stuff. Sinner can make it just Alcaraz by Sunday. All others are far above 30.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Guys Sinner will surely beat in direct confrontation at RG.

Old guys:
Rafael Nadal (no introduction needed)
Novak Djokovic (3x RG champion)
Stan Wawrinka (RG champion)
Andy Murray (2x Masters winner, RG finalist)
Dominic Thiem (3x RG Finalist)
Dusan Lajovic (Masters final, win over Djokovic)
Fabio Fognini (Masters title, win over Nadal)
Diego Schwartzman (RG SF, Masters final)
Kei Nishikori (2 Masters finals)
Gael Monfils (Masters final, RG SF)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas (Masters final, 4 clay titles)
Richie Gasquet (Masters final, 3 clay titles)
JL Struff (Masters final, clay title)
Benoit Paire (3 clay titles, Masters SF)
Marco Cecchinato (RG SF, 3 clay titles)
Marin Cilic (RG SF, 2 clay titles)

Under 30s:
Matteo Berrettini (Masters final, 3 clay titles)
Christian Garin (5 clay titles)
Alexander Zverev (3x Masters winner)
Casper Ruud (2x RG finalist)
Stefanos Tsitsipas (RG finalist, 3x Masters winner)
Andrey Rublev (Masters winner, beat Nadal/Djokovic)
Daniil Medvedev (Masters winner)
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (2x Masters winner, RG SF)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Masters finalist, beat Djokovic)
Holger Rune (Masters finalist, 3 clay titles, beat Djokovic)


The old players are not scary at all. Only Djokovic Struff and Lajovic can even do much at this stage.

Under 30 guys can beat Sinner but would need to play extremely well.

 

[NeutralFan]

As a sinner fan I can relax now since OP has not made him favourite. Anyway, I would like to refute him

1- Sinner has just entered his prime and this is his first year on clay in prime an he almost won his first masters at MC ( was robbed by umpire )

2- He had Rafa on ropes in first set and served for the set when he was a baby , that means he had the game and now he's in his prime

3-Players who have better resume than him ( on clay) are consistent player , and don't have big game like Sinner , also they have had more time to do so.

 

[malbaker86]

It’s almost like players can’t get better.

 

[ALCARAZWON]

Sinner's not worthy of a clay-related thread, and will probably never win a clay masters in his entire career.
Nadal is about to beat Sinner for the 4th time on clay... and it will be 10 sets in a row too.

 

[Kralingen]

It’s almost like players can’t get better.

Clearly you didn’t read my OP at all.

 

[aldeayeah]

Why wouldn't Nadal need an introduction? He needs an introduction like everyone else.

You act as if Nadal had won 14 RG or something...

Deux mille cinq, deux mille six, deux mille sept...

his RG intros are Daenerys Targaryen-esque

 

[Kralingen]

The thing in Sinner’s favour, though, is that RG has actually traditionally had more “surprise” winners or players who win ahead of schedule on their career. The Nadal era has distracted from that fact, but:

Gaudio 2004 (not only was RG his first Slam, it was his first time making it past a slam 4R, ever)
Wawrinka 2015 (had never made it past QFs of RG and only recently won a Masters in MC)
Kuerten 1997 (famously RG was his first ever title)
Michael Chang 1989 (at age 17)
Andres Gomez 1990 (had made RG QFs but struggled in the late 80s and was viewed as over the hill)

Puerta and Soderling as well had no record of great clay success before their finals in the 2000s.

 

[The Blond Blur]

Seen a ton of Sinner clay hype recently, some even penciling him in as the favourite (!) for Roland Garros. I understand that he’s still young and after the AO win is on a star trajectory. He is playing amazing this year. I even believe that he will win RG one day and win many clay titles.

However, we are getting ahead of ourselves to put him as the RG favourite on a surface where he’s done very little so far.

His current clay resume:
- one clay title (a 250 in Umag).
- One RG QF
- 2 appearances in Masters SFs on the surface. Only 3 total QFs in clay Masters.
- just one top 5 win, 4 top 10 wins total
He has done very little on clay.

List of active players with a better clay resume:

Old guys:
Rafael Nadal (no introduction needed)
Novak Djokovic (3x RG champion)
Stan Wawrinka (RG champion)
Andy Murray (2x Masters winner, RG finalist)
Dominic Thiem (3x RG Finalist)
Dusan Lajovic (Masters final, win over Djokovic)
Fabio Fognini (Masters title, win over Nadal)
Diego Schwartzman (RG SF, Masters final)
Kei Nishikori (2 Masters finals)
Gael Monfils (Masters final, RG SF)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas (Masters final, 4 clay titles)
Richie Gasquet (Masters final, 3 clay titles)
JL Struff (Masters final, clay title)
Benoit Paire (3 clay titles, Masters SF)
Marco Cecchinato (RG SF, 3 clay titles)
Marin Cilic (RG SF, 2 clay titles)

Under 30s:
Matteo Berrettini (Masters final, 3 clay titles)
Christian Garin (5 clay titles)
Alexander Zverev (3x Masters winner)
Casper Ruud (2x RG finalist)
Stefanos Tsitsipas (RG finalist, 3x Masters winner)
Andrey Rublev (Masters winner, beat Nadal/Djokovic)
Daniil Medvedev (Masters winner)
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (2x Masters winner, RG SF)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Masters finalist, beat Djokovic)
Holger Rune (Masters finalist, 3 clay titles, beat Djokovic)

This is not to put Sinner down as he is still young and learning the surface. He may well get himself above some of these players this season. However, as it currently stands, he has done nothing on clay to be considered the RG favourite.

 

[GAS]

Seen a ton of Sinner clay hype recently, some even penciling him in as the favourite (!) for Roland Garros. I understand that he’s still young and after the AO win is on a star trajectory. He is playing amazing this year. I even believe that he will win RG one day and win many clay titles.

However, we are getting ahead of ourselves to put him as the RG favourite on a surface where he’s done very little so far.

His current clay resume:
- one clay title (a 250 in Umag).
- One RG QF
- 2 appearances in Masters SFs on the surface. Only 3 total QFs in clay Masters.
- just one top 5 win, 4 top 10 wins total
He has done very little on clay.

List of active players with a better clay resume:

Old guys:
Rafael Nadal (no introduction needed)
Novak Djokovic (3x RG champion)
Stan Wawrinka (RG champion)
Andy Murray (2x Masters winner, RG finalist)
Dominic Thiem (3x RG Finalist)
Dusan Lajovic (Masters final, win over Djokovic)
Fabio Fognini (Masters title, win over Nadal)
Diego Schwartzman (RG SF, Masters final)
Kei Nishikori (2 Masters finals)
Gael Monfils (Masters final, RG SF)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas (Masters final, 4 clay titles)
Richie Gasquet (Masters final, 3 clay titles)
JL Struff (Masters final, clay title)
Benoit Paire (3 clay titles, Masters SF)
Marco Cecchinato (RG SF, 3 clay titles)
Marin Cilic (RG SF, 2 clay titles)

Under 30s:
Matteo Berrettini (Masters final, 3 clay titles)
Christian Garin (5 clay titles)
Alexander Zverev (3x Masters winner)
Casper Ruud (2x RG finalist)
Stefanos Tsitsipas (RG finalist, 3x Masters winner)
Andrey Rublev (Masters winner, beat Nadal/Djokovic)
Daniil Medvedev (Masters winner)
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (2x Masters winner, RG SF)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Masters finalist, beat Djokovic)
Holger Rune (Masters finalist, 3 clay titles, beat Djokovic)

This is not to put Sinner down as he is still young and learning the surface. He may well get himself above some of these players this season. However, as it currently stands, he has done nothing on clay to be considered the RG favourite.

Don't let Sinner idiot fan base bring you down. They have no impact on who Sinner is as a player.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Sinner is 28-2 on the season. This is the kind of records only Federer and Djokovic can achieve in 2000s. Supernormal. In this, he saved MP 0 times, and came back from the brink just once in AO final. If line judges were not present, he possibly would be at 30-1 this time of the year.

Him winning is no "surprise" if he wins. He is not the top contender just because he didn't have great clay results before but he is easily top 3 and possibly top 2. Let's see by Rome.

It's 28-2. Wawrinka, Kuerten, Chang and Gomez are surprises. Gaudio is downright fluke.


Wawrinka started the 40-1. Sinner is starting 3-1. They are not even in same galaxy.
If I remember correctly Wawrinka went 8-1 even in the final vs Djokovic or something crazy. Sinner outright odds are better than Wawrinka final odds. Its no surprise whatever he does in RG.

 

[Rosstour]

The thing in Sinner’s favour, though, is that RG has actually traditionally had more “surprise” winners or players who win ahead of schedule on their career. The Nadal era has distracted from that fact, but:

Gaudio 2004 (not only was RG his first Slam, it was his first time making it past a slam 4R, ever)
Wawrinka 2015 (had never made it past QFs of RG and only recently won a Masters in MC)
Kuerten 1997 (famously RG was his first ever title)
Michael Chang 1989 (at age 17)
Andres Gomez 1990 (had made RG QFs but struggled in the late 80s and was viewed as over the hill)

Puerta and Soderling as well had no record of great clay success before their finals in the 2000s.

Great observation

Before Nadal it was a Slam for younger guys with tons of stamina. Thalassampras never had a chance

 

[nolefam_2024]

Great observation

Before Nadal it was a Slam for younger guys with tons of stamina. Thalassampras never had a chance

Last 10 years winners of RG are aged

28
31
29
31
32
33
34
34
36
36

 

[Rosstour]

Last 10 years winners of RG are aged

28
31
29
31
32
33
34
34
36
36

I clearly said "before Nadal" lol

So, go back 20 years not 10

 

[nolefam_2024]

I clearly said "before Nadal" lol

So, go back 20 years not 10

20 years ago tennis is not comparable to current tennis. Its far more homogenous today than in those days. Possibly why only grinders won in Sampras era but today everyone can grind. But the best win on all surfaces.

Andy Murray has made RG final.

 

[Spin Diesel]

Imo he‘s surely not a favourite for RG. But I think he will be a force on clay in the future, because he‘s consistently trying to improve and adapt and it‘s working well so far. Remember the time when he was pretty much just a ball basher with a subpar serve and not the best movement - he‘s come really far since then!

 

[nolefam_2024]

Imo he‘s surely not a favourite for RG. But I think he will be a force on clay in the future, because he‘s consistently trying to improve and adapt and it‘s working well so far. Remember the time when he was pretty much just a ball basher with a subpar serve and not the best movement - he‘s come really far since then!

I don't think he is the favorite, but is he not top 3?
And is the top favorite so far ahead? Who is your top 3 ?

 

[GAS]

I don't think he is the favorite, but is he not top 3?
And is the top favorite so far ahead? Who is your top 3 ?

A guy that has only one clay title (a 250!) can't be a favorite to RG. Having won AO doesn't really change that.

 

[Rosstour]

20 years ago tennis is not comparable to current tennis. Its far more homogenous today than in those days. Possibly why only grinders won in Sampras era but today everyone can grind. But the best win on all surfaces.

Andy Murray has made RG final.

Murray, Nadal, Djokovic are all grinders. In some way, clay/grinding took over the tour. Now that's the standard.

Even Federer is much more of a grinder than the old S&V crew.

No one outside the B3 + Wawrinka has won a French since Gaudio in 2024. It cannot be won without stamina and maybe a little help from the physio

 

[Rosstour]

A guy that has only one clay title (a 250!) can't be a favorite to RG. Having won AO doesn't really change that.

Right. Until I see that he's mastered this surface the way he has with HC, I can't say he's a bigger favorite than Alcaraz, TPas, Zverev...let alone if he meets Nadal or Djoko in a SF/F

 

[nolefam_2024]

Murray, Nadal, Djokovic are all grinders. In some way, clay/grinding took over the tour. Now that's the standard.

Even Federer is much more of a grinder than the old S&V crew.

No one outside the B3 + Wawrinka has won a French since Gaudio in 2024. It cannot be won without stamina and maybe a little help from the physio

Agreed. Except Fed is no grinder.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Sinner has played 22 clay events.

6 250s all long ago, when he was a teenager, won 1 in Umag. He don't play these 250s.

2 500 in Barcelona, out of which he W/O last year and before that was just 20.
11 masters. Lost in 2 MC semis.

He doesn't play small events on clay anymore. 250s and 500s.

 

[Sport]

Murray, Nadal, Djokovic are all grinders. In some way, clay/grinding took over the tour. Now that's the standard.

Even Federer is much more of a grinder than the old S&V crew.

No one outside the B3 + Wawrinka has won a French since Gaudio in 2024. It cannot be won without stamina and maybe a little help from the physio

Federer and grinder are incompatible terms. That's my logico-methodological conclusion after rewatching the USO 2015 inal highlights that @Hitman posted this week.

Federer played as risky as it gets. Ultra-offensive game with relatively low percentage shots. That "kamikaze" style got obsolete for today's standards. I mean, playing higher percentage shots with a less risky style is more rewarding for today's court and conditions. In a sense, you can't criticize Roger for this, as he grew up modeling his steps on starts like Sampras who played that old-school game (one-handed backhand, big serve, risky shots, etc.). Federer is a product of his generation.

Crazy to think Roger won 20 Slams (which is a monstruosity) with a one-handed backhand and such "low-percentage" risky shots. He's insanely talented. His GOAT serve also helped him a lot.

 

[Rosstour]

Agreed. Except Fed is no grinder.

It's all relative right? Fed's stamina was better than almost any player ever outside of Rafito and Djokito. Early in his career he could just run around all day, slicing guys to death and waiting for a short ball to crush.

 

[nolefam_2024]

At Sinner's age 2 time RG finalist Thiem had this stat.

1 Kitzbuel final - whatever this is
1 Nice Title - Aged 21 and in most depleted field a day before RG
1 Umag and 1 Gstaad post Wimbledon. Highest seeds Monfils and Goffin respectively.

If Sinner played clay court tier 3 tournaments like Dominic, he would get even more wins seeing how only player who beat him this year is Tsitsipas on clay and that too might be umpire's fault.

 

[nolefam_2024]

It's all relative right? Fed's stamina was better than almost any player ever outside of Rafito and Djokito. Early in his career he could just run around all day, slicing guys to death and waiting for a short ball to crush.

I don't think even on clay Fed would be a grinder. Grinders are guys with huge patience. Rune, Nole, Rafa, Murray, Stan, Zverev for sure.

 

[ojo rojo]

He might end up with a better record on the red stuff than his Czech doppelganger

Munich '09
Palermo '04 (lol)

 

[nolefam_2024]

Federer and grinder are compatible terms. That's my logico-methodological conclusion after rewatching the USO 2015 inal highlights that @Hitman posted this week.

Federer played as risky as it gets. Ultra-offensive game with relatively low percentage shots. That "kamikaze" style got obsolete for today's standards. I mean, playing higher percentage shots with a less risky style is more rewarding for today's court and conditions. In a sense, you can't criticize Roger for this, as he grew up modeling his steps on starts like Sampras who played that old-school game (one-handed backhand, big serve, risky shots, etc.). Federer is a product of his generation.

Crazy to think Roger won 20 Slams (which is a monstruosity) with a one-handed backhand and such "low-percentage" risky shots. He's insanely talented. His GOAT serve also helped him a lot.

Federer would have suffered if Rafole came up earlier. Because the surfaces were already changed and racket too. Rafole are too physically gifted players, best athletes I have seen in tennis. They could make every match vs fed a grindfest. He won 20 but in very small period he racked up 16 slams. Let's not forget.

 

[Rosstour]

I don't think even on clay Fed would be a grinder. Grinders are guys with huge patience. Rune, Nole, Rafa, Murray, Stan, Zverev for sure.

You are thinking modern standards

Federer was a "grinder" in the sense that he could outlast any of the other players physically while also having the power to put shots away and end points quickly. In the early part of his career he used his legs a LOT

Not saying he was the same kind of player as those actual grinders--he's not. But he had enough fitness to be enough of a grinder to stay with the best grinders in history

 

[BeatlesFan]

OP, this is a bit disingenuous:

Holger Rune (Masters finalist, 3 clay titles, beat Djokovic)

He's a two-time Masters finalist on clay, he made the finals of both MC and Rome last year. You also omit he's twice made the QF's at RG. So clearly he has the better clay resume than Sinner. That won't last long, but it's true right now. So there's your answer of a current player with a superior clay resume to Sinner.

 

[Kralingen]

All this hot air from Nole fan 2024

The truth is Daniil Medvedev has a larger Clay resume than Sinner and he’s my least favorite player of all time.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Truth is Medvedev reached his first clay final at age 23 in Barcelona and Sinner at age 22 is not only having title on clay, but has reached RG QF and has a slam. And is world number 2.

 

[Kralingen]

Truth is Medvedev reached his first clay final at age 23 in Barcelona and Sinner at age 22 is not only having title on clay, but has reached RG QF and has a slam. And is world number 2.

We are not talking about who’s better for their age we’re talking about what each player has achieved. You keep twisting the argument and ignoring what I’m actually saying.

 

[nolefam_2024]

We are not talking about who’s better for their age we’re talking about what each player has achieved. You keep twisting the argument and ignoring what I’m actually saying.

@Kralingen tell us how in a direct encounter can Medvedev beat Sinner at RG.
Not using age as an excuse. Just envision Meddy beating Sinner in RG BO5.

 

[Kralingen]

@Kralingen tell us how in a direct encounter can Medvedev beat Sinner at RG.
Not using age as an excuse. Just envision Meddy beating Sinner in RG BO5.

Sinner gets injured or fatigued and falls apart just like he did vs Altmaier or Rublev the previous two years

 

[BeatlesFan]

We are not talking about who’s better for their age we’re talking about what each player has achieved. Y

I already gave you the answer: Holger Rune and a slew of others too. But again, much of this will vanish as Sinner gets older and wins clay titles, which is pretty much guaranteed.

 

[Sport]

Federer would have suffered if Rafole came up earlier. Because the surfaces were already changed and racket too. Rafole are too physically gifted players, best athletes I have seen in tennis. They could make every match vs fed a grindfest. He won 20 but in very small period he racked up 16 slams. Let's not forget.

By that logic, if Federer had emerged later, he likely gets coached differently and, who knows, maybe he'd used a two-handed backhand and more of a "grinder" style, thus possibly having different results.

The beauty (and also the Acuilles heel) of Roger is that he represents the most perfect paradigm of a transitional player. He's an hybrid, a unicorn He doesn't fix on any specific cagegory of a player because he has alements from both previous and current generations. Roger uses a une-handed backhand, big serve, risky shots with accelerated aggression... but can also win the point with patience and resiliance, he possesses great touch and creativity from the baseline. Trapped in the middle of this transition between eras, his gamestyle became a quasi-mythological manifestation: he belongs to a "unicorn zone", for he's the only tennis legend with such a unique game.

 

[nolefam_2024]

A tangent from this thread, @Sport how much do the small titles matter in tennis ?
A player like Garin has 5 clay titles, all pretty small but he loses badly vs Medvedev in RG 2021.

How much quantity is enough to outweigh quality?

 

[FeroBango]

Sinner 2.0 shall never be written off.

 

[Pheasant]

This all being said, it's tough to pick a favorite now at RG. I'd probably go:
1. Djoker -- This guy manages to stay incredibly healthy for majors and he has nerves of steel. His top gear isn't what it used to be. But in my book, he's still the slight favorite
2. Alcaraz-- his peak level is likely the highest now on dirt. But he's also very prone to injuries. How banged up will he be?
3. Sinner- This guy is close. But I don't think that he's quite ready yet. I could be wrong and wouldn't be shocked if he won. The difference among the top-3 here is very small.

There's a big dip to get to #4.

4. Tsitsipas- he's found his clay form. Granted, he got bumped early in this tourney, likely due to being very tried from going to back-to-back finals. But he's back.
5. Nadal--shocker. But he's improved a lot more than I figured that he would. A Nadal clicking on only 5 of his 8 cylinders is still top-5 on the dirt. Hopefully, he stays healthy while continuing to improve.

As for the rest, I don't give them much of a chance. Ruud can get blasted off the court by far too many players. Zverev doesn't have the nerves to get past the semis. Rune still doesn't have the endurance. And lastly, Med isn't quite ready, although he might be the best bet out of this bunch.

 

[Purestriker]

I clearly said "before Nadal" lol

So, go back 20 years not 10

Yeah, two of those guys make up 9 of the 10. Nadal - 6 and Novak 3.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Sinner 2.0 shall never be written off.

With hold % 92.9 and brk % 31.6, he is still top of this world. 124.5 combined.

This week it has been good as well.
88% hold and 40% break. Today I thought he would get broken a lot more but he saved 5/6 bp.

Alcaraz is close
hold % 87.5 and brk % 35.5. so 123 combined.
This week he has been

85% and 40%. Today he saved 8/10 bp.

In crunch time I think Sinner will make less mistakes and Carlos will be able to pull off crazy shots. Let's see both are going solid in Madrid. Sinner slightly better on serve.

 

[nolefam_2024]

And Djokovic is pretty bad at 84.6 and 29.7 respectively. At 116.5. Still far above the rest.
I think just Djokovic Sinner and Raz are above 115 but Sinner and Raz are better.

 

[nolefam_2024]

For top contenders let's see hold and brk % this year.

Player	Hold	Brk	Total
Sinner	92.9	31.6	124.5
Alcaraz	87.2	35.5	122.7
Djokovic	84.6	29.7	115.3
Ruud	87.4	27.6	115
Tsitsipas	85.5	26.3	111.8
Zverev	89.6	19	108.6
Nadal	83.1	39	122.1
Medvedev	80.3	28.5	108.8
Rublev	90.8	17.3	100.1

Clearly even after playing 2 clay tournaments, Sinner's hold % is so high it doesn't change much. Alcaraz is very close.
But rest of the tour is sharply behind this year. We can assume Djokovic was not playing on high gear but he would need to increase his hold% to something ridiculous very soon.

Zverev has totally flopped in return games this year and it is showing in his results. Barely breaking anyone. He has servebot type numbers. While Ruud has improved his serve a lot and is now near Djokovic in numbers. Nadal despite playing only few matches has shown his level can be high but I think that 83% hold will drop if he faced better players.

 

[malbaker86]

Clearly you didn’t read my OP at all.

I read it. Just because his past seasons on clay wouldn’t suggest he is named the favorite by a lot of folks, it’s the eye test that’s leading a lot of folks to say that. I don’t agree, but’s not an outrageous claim

 

[nolefam_2024]

I think people are basically waiting to see if Sinner can hold physically. Apart from that there is no doubt why he should not be top 2 contender on clay right now. If Djokovic gets to that high gear, even then top 3 and he would not meet Djokovic until the final.

If someone figures out how to break sinner constantly, until that happens, it is looking very tough. Tsitsipas was able to do so. But barely. Tsitsipas was 1/9 on BP until Sinner started cramping and then won 2 of the 6 in last 2 return games.

 

[socallefty]

The oddsmakers seem to have a good handle on the chances of players winning taking into account their clay resume, current form and health. Depending on the results of Madrid and Rome, the picture might change dramatically especially for Sinner and Nadal. Also we will see if Djokovic looks healthy at Rome or his odds will drop.

2024 MEN'S FRENCH OPEN ODDS​

• Carlos Alcaraz +162
• Novak Djokovic +250
• Jannik Sinner +300
• Rafael Nadal +600
• Casper Ruud +1000
• Stefanos Tsitsipas +1100
• Holger Rune +1400
• Alexander Zverev +1600
• Daniil Medvedev +2000
• Andrey Rublev +4000

 

[nolefam_2024]

The oddsmakers seem to have a good handle on the chances of players winning taking into account their clay resume, current form and health. Depending on the results of Madrid and Rome, the picture might change dramatically especially for Sinner and Nadal. Also we will see if Djokovic looks healthy at Rome or his odds will drop.

2024 MEN'S FRENCH OPEN ODDS​

• Carlos Alcaraz +162
• Novak Djokovic +250
• Jannik Sinner +300
• Rafael Nadal +600
• Casper Ruud +1000
• Stefanos Tsitsipas +1100
• Holger Rune +1400
• Alexander Zverev +1600
• Daniil Medvedev +2000
• Andrey Rublev +4000

Djokovic skipping any tournament till Rome means we don't know if he is going to be in top gear at RG. Hopefully he should be but no idea. Even then Sinner is at very high level.