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https://uk.sports.yahoo.com/news/es...adal-upset-odds-australia-072633699--ten.html
After Roger Federer’s shock win at the Australian Open – five years after his previous major title – the top of the men’s game seems to be in a state of flux.
Remember folks this is a British Eurosport/Yahoo article so if there's any bias towards Muzz ignore it.
Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal after the Australian Open final
Rafa Nadal also showed a return to his best and came within a set of taking the title in Melbourne, while the top two ranked players – Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic – fell in the fourth and second rounds respectively.
The Serb was replaced by Murray as world No 1 at the end of last year after a six-month dip in form and admitted to struggling with personal problems. But the Scot has yet to really cement his position at the top for the long term after Djokovic spent more than 100 weeks at the summit of the rankings.
So, after the form book was turned upside down in Melbourne, which of the Big Four (if any) will win at Roland Garros? We take a look at all of their chances, as well as some of the other contenders and outsiders...
Andy Murray
World ranking: No 1
Pros: Last year was the peak of Murray’s career so far. He won the Olympics, Wimbledon and became world No 1. He was clearly the dominant player and looked set for a stay – or at least an epic struggle with Djokovic – at the top of the rankings. Despite the end-of-season break it is certainly possible that he was fatigued at the Australian Open, after having Davis Cup commitments to add to his workload in 2016 and his usually brutal winter training camp in Miami. One loss to Mischa Zverev, however surprising, doesn’t mean he is no longer the top dog.
Cons: Only really proved that he is a realistic contender on clay last year when he beat Novak Djokovic – for the first time on the surface – in Rome. However, he then lost to the Serb in the French Open final to hand his great rival a career Slam.
Odds: 7/2
Novak Djokovic
World ranking: 2
Pros: Like Murray, he will be well rested after a tough last year and early exit in Melbourne. However, he also has the knowledge that he can triumph in Paris after taking the title in 2016 – his first at the event. If he can get back to his best mentally, the Serb is still arguably the best player on the planet. But that is a big ‘if’.
Cons: Has looked a shadow of his former self at recent tournaments. Made a cluster of unforced errors against Murray in the World Tour Finals showdown and was then knocked out by world No 117 Denis Istomin in the first major of 2017. No matter how well the 30-year-old from Uzbekistan played, there is no chance Djokovic would have lost a year previously en route to his sixth Australian Open title.
Odds: 13/5
Rafael Nadal
World ranking: 6
Pros: He is ‘The King of Clay’. Sure, the past couple of years have not backed this up but he has not been fit. Last time around in Paris he was forced to withdraw with a wrist problem and has also struggled with tendonitis in his knees. But the 30-year-old he proved he is healthy again in Melbourne and also has Carlos Moya, a former world No 1 and clay-court specialist, now in his corner adding new ideas. His fellow Majorcan led Milos Raonic to the No 3 spot and clearly had an impact at the Australian Open too.
Cons: Can his fitness last? His technique is based on brute force and heavy top-spin groundstrokes which take a bigger toll on the body than a more fluid style such as Federer’s. He lasted more than 20 hours on court in Melbourne, but the clay saps strength even quicker.
Odds: 13/5
Roger Federer
World ranking: 10
Pros: Do not be fooled by his ranking. The Swiss maestro was back to his best in Australia. He is fit again and armed with an attacking brand of tennis that dispensed with Rafa Nadal in the final and two other top-five players – Stan Wawrinka and Kei Nishikori. The 35-year-old also has the advantage of knowing how to win at Roland Garros and has taken the pressure off himself by claiming the elusive 18th major over the weekend.
Cons: His strategy of keeping the points short to minimise energy output and blunt the strategy of baseline bludgeoners such as Nadal will not work anywhere near as well on clay, with the high, and slower, bounce of the Paris courts. He may need another tactical tweak, or at least to have a good draw and blitz opponents in the opening rounds.
Odds: 20/1
Other contenders and outside bets
Stan Wawrinka cannot be ruled out. After all the Swiss is the world No 4 and reached the semi-finals in Melbourne. He is also a former champion at Roland Garros and so at the very least could end up taking out one of the Big Four.
Argentina's Juan Martin del Potro in action against Croatia's Marin Cilic.
Kei Nishikori and Milos Raonic have been edging closer to major wins over the past 12 months, as shown by their rankings of 5 and 4, with the Canadian probably less of a threat given that the clay will neutralise his huge serve more than on hard courts or grass.
Outside of the top 10, Martin Del Potro could trouble the latter stages, fitness permitting, after his epic battles with Andy Murray at the Olympics and Davis Cup showed he is still a huge talent when healthy. Grigor Dimitrov also showed in Melbourne he is finally fulfilling his talent and could spring a surprise.
Our view - (Yahoo's not mine)
There is a long way to go until May, but, all things being equal, Rafa Nadal has to be the man to beat. He is going for an unprecedented 10th title and, when playing at his best and completely healthy – which he now is – the Spaniard is almost unbeatable on clay. The defeat to his great rival Federer will have hurt and he will be looking to make amends immediately at his favourite Slam. Nadal seems to have a new lease of life and, with smart schemer Moya in his corner, Murray, Djokovic and Federer will all be hoping he is not in their side of the draw.
After Roger Federer’s shock win at the Australian Open – five years after his previous major title – the top of the men’s game seems to be in a state of flux.
Remember folks this is a British Eurosport/Yahoo article so if there's any bias towards Muzz ignore it.
Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal after the Australian Open final
Rafa Nadal also showed a return to his best and came within a set of taking the title in Melbourne, while the top two ranked players – Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic – fell in the fourth and second rounds respectively.
The Serb was replaced by Murray as world No 1 at the end of last year after a six-month dip in form and admitted to struggling with personal problems. But the Scot has yet to really cement his position at the top for the long term after Djokovic spent more than 100 weeks at the summit of the rankings.
So, after the form book was turned upside down in Melbourne, which of the Big Four (if any) will win at Roland Garros? We take a look at all of their chances, as well as some of the other contenders and outsiders...
Andy Murray
World ranking: No 1
Pros: Last year was the peak of Murray’s career so far. He won the Olympics, Wimbledon and became world No 1. He was clearly the dominant player and looked set for a stay – or at least an epic struggle with Djokovic – at the top of the rankings. Despite the end-of-season break it is certainly possible that he was fatigued at the Australian Open, after having Davis Cup commitments to add to his workload in 2016 and his usually brutal winter training camp in Miami. One loss to Mischa Zverev, however surprising, doesn’t mean he is no longer the top dog.
Cons: Only really proved that he is a realistic contender on clay last year when he beat Novak Djokovic – for the first time on the surface – in Rome. However, he then lost to the Serb in the French Open final to hand his great rival a career Slam.
Odds: 7/2
Novak Djokovic
World ranking: 2
Pros: Like Murray, he will be well rested after a tough last year and early exit in Melbourne. However, he also has the knowledge that he can triumph in Paris after taking the title in 2016 – his first at the event. If he can get back to his best mentally, the Serb is still arguably the best player on the planet. But that is a big ‘if’.
Cons: Has looked a shadow of his former self at recent tournaments. Made a cluster of unforced errors against Murray in the World Tour Finals showdown and was then knocked out by world No 117 Denis Istomin in the first major of 2017. No matter how well the 30-year-old from Uzbekistan played, there is no chance Djokovic would have lost a year previously en route to his sixth Australian Open title.
Odds: 13/5
Rafael Nadal
World ranking: 6
Pros: He is ‘The King of Clay’. Sure, the past couple of years have not backed this up but he has not been fit. Last time around in Paris he was forced to withdraw with a wrist problem and has also struggled with tendonitis in his knees. But the 30-year-old he proved he is healthy again in Melbourne and also has Carlos Moya, a former world No 1 and clay-court specialist, now in his corner adding new ideas. His fellow Majorcan led Milos Raonic to the No 3 spot and clearly had an impact at the Australian Open too.
Cons: Can his fitness last? His technique is based on brute force and heavy top-spin groundstrokes which take a bigger toll on the body than a more fluid style such as Federer’s. He lasted more than 20 hours on court in Melbourne, but the clay saps strength even quicker.
Odds: 13/5
Roger Federer
World ranking: 10
Pros: Do not be fooled by his ranking. The Swiss maestro was back to his best in Australia. He is fit again and armed with an attacking brand of tennis that dispensed with Rafa Nadal in the final and two other top-five players – Stan Wawrinka and Kei Nishikori. The 35-year-old also has the advantage of knowing how to win at Roland Garros and has taken the pressure off himself by claiming the elusive 18th major over the weekend.
Cons: His strategy of keeping the points short to minimise energy output and blunt the strategy of baseline bludgeoners such as Nadal will not work anywhere near as well on clay, with the high, and slower, bounce of the Paris courts. He may need another tactical tweak, or at least to have a good draw and blitz opponents in the opening rounds.
Odds: 20/1
Other contenders and outside bets
Stan Wawrinka cannot be ruled out. After all the Swiss is the world No 4 and reached the semi-finals in Melbourne. He is also a former champion at Roland Garros and so at the very least could end up taking out one of the Big Four.
Argentina's Juan Martin del Potro in action against Croatia's Marin Cilic.
Kei Nishikori and Milos Raonic have been edging closer to major wins over the past 12 months, as shown by their rankings of 5 and 4, with the Canadian probably less of a threat given that the clay will neutralise his huge serve more than on hard courts or grass.
Outside of the top 10, Martin Del Potro could trouble the latter stages, fitness permitting, after his epic battles with Andy Murray at the Olympics and Davis Cup showed he is still a huge talent when healthy. Grigor Dimitrov also showed in Melbourne he is finally fulfilling his talent and could spring a surprise.
Our view - (Yahoo's not mine)
There is a long way to go until May, but, all things being equal, Rafa Nadal has to be the man to beat. He is going for an unprecedented 10th title and, when playing at his best and completely healthy – which he now is – the Spaniard is almost unbeatable on clay. The defeat to his great rival Federer will have hurt and he will be looking to make amends immediately at his favourite Slam. Nadal seems to have a new lease of life and, with smart schemer Moya in his corner, Murray, Djokovic and Federer will all be hoping he is not in their side of the draw.
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