Age distribution of all Open Era major finalists

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by falstaff78, Feb 2, 2013.

  1. Hitman

    Hitman G.O.A.T.

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    I have said this a few times, but when Djokovic finally is dethroned as the worlds heavyweight champion, that is when the curtain will ultimately come down on the spectacular period that pretty much began at TMC 2003, when Federer truly arrived and ushered in this era, it will end when Djokovic's time as the very best comes to an end. I do feel once this unique period in tennis is over, things will go back to the way they were, and younger players will start making their strides.
     
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  2. RedFoe

    RedFoe Semi-Pro

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    We shall see. That is the big question.
     
  3. reaper

    reaper Hall of Fame

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    I'd be very surprised if there aren't a lot of young finalists in a few years. There simply aren't the players to hold them off. Nishikori, Cilic and Del Potro are perenially injury prone, Tomic is too slow, which leaves Raonic and Jack Sock as the two players to stop the young brigade. If those guys hold off young players, they should simply abolish tennis as a professional sport.
     
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  4. helterskelter

    helterskelter Hall of Fame

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    @falstaff78

    Please update these tables when you can! I'm useless with charts, but here's the raw numbers for Slam finalists since you posted it in February 2013 (15 slams played):

    RG 2013: 27 v 31
    WI 2013: 26 v 26
    UO 2013: 26 v 27
    AO 2014: 27 v 28
    RG 2014: 28 v 27
    WI 2014: 27 v 32
    UO 2014: 24 v 25
    AO 2015: 27 v 27
    RG 2015: 28 v 30
    WI 2015: 28 v 33
    UO 2015: 28 v 34
    AO 2016: 28 v 28
    RG 2016: 29 v 29
    WI 2016: 25 v 29
    UO 2016: 29 v 31

    Overall:
    24: 1
    25: 2
    26: 3
    27: 7
    28: 7
    29: 4
    30: 1
    31: 2
    32: 1
    33: 1
    34: 1

    I'm curious to what extent such a small sample size changes the long-term charts. Although the bump has certainly moved upwards, it still seems that there's a drop-off at 29 and an even bigger one at 30, but the next few years will tell us whether that continues to be the case.

    EDIT:

    Okay, so I input the overall numbers, and here they are! Not in tabular form, for which my apologies.

    17: 3
    18: 4
    19: 8
    20: 26
    21: 34
    22: 50
    23: 51
    24: 65
    25: 66
    26: 42
    27: 34
    28: 22
    29: 26
    30: 14
    31: 10
    32: 3
    33: 4
    34: 3
    35: 4
    36: 2
    37: 1
    38: 0
    39: 2
     
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2016
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  5. helterskelter

    helterskelter Hall of Fame

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    He didn't "explode" in the first of those two years, and with his knee surgery coming up, it doesn't look like he will do so in the next few months, either, so he'll be pushing the last few months of your time span. At this point, Alexander Zverev (just won his first title at 19 years, 5 months) is a better bet to be the next sensation. But neither of them has yet even reached a Slam 4th round. Coric will be 20 by the time of the next Slam, while Zverev only has one more Slam before his 20th birthday. Perhaps Kyrgios could still breakthrough if he can get his head together. He showed he has the potential with the two Slam quarter-finals aged 19. That he hasn't progressed since then is probably more mental than physical - except insofar as the lack of interest prevents him from progressing physically.

    There are currently four teenagers in the top 100 (Fritz, Zverev, Coric, Donaldson), which is more than there have been in a while. But the latter two turn 20 by mid-November, so it looks like, unless Francis Tiafoe breaks through quickly, the year-end rankings will contain just two teenagers in the top 100.
     
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2016
  6. falstaff78

    falstaff78 Hall of Fame

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    Okay will do when I get a chance!!!
     
  7. Goosehead

    Goosehead Hall of Fame

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    uso 2016 should be 29 v 31.
     
  8. helterskelter

    helterskelter Hall of Fame

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    Good point. Thanks. I'll edit the post.
     
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  9. helterskelter

    helterskelter Hall of Fame

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    Thank you! When you do, could you please let me know which stat it is that has 29 being a marked drop off from 28? I know that several posters talked about 28.5 as an age where players had less success, but the chart for GS finalists in the Open Era doesn't bear that out: 29 year olds have actually done better than 28 year olds, although much less well than 24-26 year olds. Is it that those at 28 have had more luck in winning the final than those at 29?
     
  10. falstaff78

    falstaff78 Hall of Fame

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  11. falstaff78

    falstaff78 Hall of Fame

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    I suspect the 28.5 number results from only looking at Federer and Nadal.

    It comes from the fact that Federer was 28.5 around the time of the Australian Open in 2010. Prior to that he was still on his amazing run of having reached 18 / 19 consecutive major finals. And since then he has only reached 5 / 27.

    Nadal's career reached a similiar turning point at the age of 27.5, which was around the time of his fateful defeat to Stan in the Aus 2014 final. The difference of 1 year is explained in this thread. If you look at win totals by age, it becomes clear that Nadal's career is weirdly off-set from Federer's by exactly 1 year. That is to say, whatever you expect to see happen to Federer at a certain age, you would expect to see the same happen to Nadal a year earlier.

    But you are right, the larger dataset suggests that there is a drop off around 30....
     
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  12. helterskelter

    helterskelter Hall of Fame

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  13. helterskelter

    helterskelter Hall of Fame

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    That's a good point. Nadal also started winning a year or two before Federer did. But Federer won one final (so far) Slam at 30, and unless Nadal performs heroics in Australia, he won't even have made a Slam quarter-final at age 30! His decline was certainly deeper in his late 20s, as Federer didn't even dip below #3 until he was ~ 31.5, and didn't lose prior to a Slam quarter-final until he was five or six weeks shy of 32. Plus he went on to make a Slam final at 32, another at 33, and yet another at 34.

    If Djokovic doesn't get his act together, he might dip about a year after Federer did. But we'll see in the coming months and years.
     
  14. Jackuar

    Jackuar Rookie

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    On OP... So that looks like Fed has 3 more finals, <Edit> statistically <Edit>, in the next 2 years and two more GS, taking it to 19. Not bad... I'll be happy :)
     
    Last edited: Oct 4, 2016
  15. Jonas78

    Jonas78 Hall of Fame

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    Interesting stats, and i do think they will hold up with Djoko. If he wins Aussie2017 ill give him a small chance to reach Fed, but stats are definetly against him. In other words, he might push the stats a bit, but he wont turn them upside down.

    That being said, the average age has increased among the top players, and you have Serena turning all WTA stats upside down. I do not think the Serena-phenomenon will happen in ATP, mainly because:
    • 5 sets vs 3
    • Competition
    • She is something very extraordinary.
    If Federer had gone through his 30+ without facing other ATG's like Djoko and Nadal, and even Murray, his 30+ career would probably also look extraordinary, still not like Serenas. Serena has had the privilege of not facing female ATG's in her thirties.
     
    Last edited: Oct 4, 2016
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