Age distribution of all Open Era major finalists

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by falstaff78, Feb 2, 2013.

  1. Hitman

    Hitman Talk Tennis Guru

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    I have said this a few times, but when Djokovic finally is dethroned as the worlds heavyweight champion, that is when the curtain will ultimately come down on the spectacular period that pretty much began at TMC 2003, when Federer truly arrived and ushered in this era, it will end when Djokovic's time as the very best comes to an end. I do feel once this unique period in tennis is over, things will go back to the way they were, and younger players will start making their strides.
     
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  2. RedFoe

    RedFoe Semi-Pro

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    We shall see. That is the big question.
     
  3. reaper

    reaper Hall of Fame

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    I'd be very surprised if there aren't a lot of young finalists in a few years. There simply aren't the players to hold them off. Nishikori, Cilic and Del Potro are perenially injury prone, Tomic is too slow, which leaves Raonic and Jack Sock as the two players to stop the young brigade. If those guys hold off young players, they should simply abolish tennis as a professional sport.
     
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  4. helterskelter

    helterskelter Legend

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    @falstaff78

    Please update these tables when you can! I'm useless with charts, but here's the raw numbers for Slam finalists since you posted it in February 2013 (15 slams played):

    RG 2013: 27 v 31
    WI 2013: 26 v 26
    UO 2013: 26 v 27
    AO 2014: 27 v 28
    RG 2014: 28 v 27
    WI 2014: 27 v 32
    UO 2014: 24 v 25
    AO 2015: 27 v 27
    RG 2015: 28 v 30
    WI 2015: 28 v 33
    UO 2015: 28 v 34
    AO 2016: 28 v 28
    RG 2016: 29 v 29
    WI 2016: 25 v 29
    UO 2016: 29 v 31

    Overall:
    24: 1
    25: 2
    26: 3
    27: 7
    28: 7
    29: 4
    30: 1
    31: 2
    32: 1
    33: 1
    34: 1

    I'm curious to what extent such a small sample size changes the long-term charts. Although the bump has certainly moved upwards, it still seems that there's a drop-off at 29 and an even bigger one at 30, but the next few years will tell us whether that continues to be the case.

    EDIT:

    Okay, so I input the overall numbers, and here they are! Not in tabular form, for which my apologies.

    17: 3
    18: 4
    19: 8
    20: 26
    21: 34
    22: 50
    23: 51
    24: 65
    25: 66
    26: 42
    27: 34
    28: 22
    29: 26
    30: 14
    31: 10
    32: 3
    33: 4
    34: 3
    35: 4
    36: 2
    37: 1
    38: 0
    39: 2
     
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2016
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  5. helterskelter

    helterskelter Legend

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    He didn't "explode" in the first of those two years, and with his knee surgery coming up, it doesn't look like he will do so in the next few months, either, so he'll be pushing the last few months of your time span. At this point, Alexander Zverev (just won his first title at 19 years, 5 months) is a better bet to be the next sensation. But neither of them has yet even reached a Slam 4th round. Coric will be 20 by the time of the next Slam, while Zverev only has one more Slam before his 20th birthday. Perhaps Kyrgios could still breakthrough if he can get his head together. He showed he has the potential with the two Slam quarter-finals aged 19. That he hasn't progressed since then is probably more mental than physical - except insofar as the lack of interest prevents him from progressing physically.

    There are currently four teenagers in the top 100 (Fritz, Zverev, Coric, Donaldson), which is more than there have been in a while. But the latter two turn 20 by mid-November, so it looks like, unless Francis Tiafoe breaks through quickly, the year-end rankings will contain just two teenagers in the top 100.
     
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2016
  6. falstaff78

    falstaff78 Hall of Fame

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    Okay will do when I get a chance!!!
     
  7. Goosehead

    Goosehead Hall of Fame

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    uso 2016 should be 29 v 31.
     
  8. helterskelter

    helterskelter Legend

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    Good point. Thanks. I'll edit the post.
     
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  9. helterskelter

    helterskelter Legend

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    Thank you! When you do, could you please let me know which stat it is that has 29 being a marked drop off from 28? I know that several posters talked about 28.5 as an age where players had less success, but the chart for GS finalists in the Open Era doesn't bear that out: 29 year olds have actually done better than 28 year olds, although much less well than 24-26 year olds. Is it that those at 28 have had more luck in winning the final than those at 29?
     
  10. falstaff78

    falstaff78 Hall of Fame

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  11. falstaff78

    falstaff78 Hall of Fame

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    I suspect the 28.5 number results from only looking at Federer and Nadal.

    It comes from the fact that Federer was 28.5 around the time of the Australian Open in 2010. Prior to that he was still on his amazing run of having reached 18 / 19 consecutive major finals. And since then he has only reached 5 / 27.

    Nadal's career reached a similiar turning point at the age of 27.5, which was around the time of his fateful defeat to Stan in the Aus 2014 final. The difference of 1 year is explained in this thread. If you look at win totals by age, it becomes clear that Nadal's career is weirdly off-set from Federer's by exactly 1 year. That is to say, whatever you expect to see happen to Federer at a certain age, you would expect to see the same happen to Nadal a year earlier.

    But you are right, the larger dataset suggests that there is a drop off around 30....
     
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  12. helterskelter

    helterskelter Legend

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  13. helterskelter

    helterskelter Legend

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    That's a good point. Nadal also started winning a year or two before Federer did. But Federer won one final (so far) Slam at 30, and unless Nadal performs heroics in Australia, he won't even have made a Slam quarter-final at age 30! His decline was certainly deeper in his late 20s, as Federer didn't even dip below #3 until he was ~ 31.5, and didn't lose prior to a Slam quarter-final until he was five or six weeks shy of 32. Plus he went on to make a Slam final at 32, another at 33, and yet another at 34.

    If Djokovic doesn't get his act together, he might dip about a year after Federer did. But we'll see in the coming months and years.
     
  14. Jackuar

    Jackuar Professional

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    On OP... So that looks like Fed has 3 more finals, <Edit> statistically <Edit>, in the next 2 years and two more GS, taking it to 19. Not bad... I'll be happy :)
     
    Last edited: Oct 4, 2016
  15. Jonas78

    Jonas78 Hall of Fame

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    Interesting stats, and i do think they will hold up with Djoko. If he wins Aussie2017 ill give him a small chance to reach Fed, but stats are definetly against him. In other words, he might push the stats a bit, but he wont turn them upside down.

    That being said, the average age has increased among the top players, and you have Serena turning all WTA stats upside down. I do not think the Serena-phenomenon will happen in ATP, mainly because:
    • 5 sets vs 3
    • Competition
    • She is something very extraordinary.
    If Federer had gone through his 30+ without facing other ATG's like Djoko and Nadal, and even Murray, his 30+ career would probably also look extraordinary, still not like Serenas. Serena has had the privilege of not facing female ATG's in her thirties.
     
    Last edited: Oct 4, 2016
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  16. abmk

    abmk Talk Tennis Guru

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  17. Chanwan

    Chanwan G.O.A.T.

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    That's a massive factor and one of the reasons why, I think Novak can still be dangerous if he gets his act together.

    Fed's lost 11 times to Rafole in slams since the AO 2010. Serena has added 11 slams since the AO 2010.....
    Not saying Fed would have won all 11, but he would be severely favored to win 7-8 of them, all things being equal. He could also have lost his motivation and stopped playing of course.
     
  18. -NN-

    -NN- Legend

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    Of course, the competition is a big deal. In absolute terms, Federer is playing drastically superior competition. In relative terms, his competition on the ATP tour has been much sterner than Serena's has been on the WTA tour. He's had to deal with two other legit all-time greats.
     
  19. chut

    chut Rookie

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    That's a great thread. Btw i'm using it to publicly call for an update on tennis28.com
    It's an amazing place to get data, some of it could be used better but most importantly, it's not updated at all since USO2015 and certain parts of it since 2014... If anyone knows someone...
     
  20. Jonas78

    Jonas78 Hall of Fame

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    Sure Novak can have another run, but 7 slams in BO5 in his thirties? I feel pretty safe;). Just thinking out loud, but one of his biggest strengths is court coverage, and speed/explosiveness is probably what declines first. I dont know how a minor loss of speed/explosiveness will affect his game, but i certainly think this is one of the reasons for Rafas decline.
     
  21. Chanwan

    Chanwan G.O.A.T.

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    All good points and yes, court coverage/defense is one of his main strengths. But he can also, when at his offensive best, redirect the balls Agassi-style and make his opponent run from corner to corner as he's often done to Murray.
    Also, when his first serve is on, he's probably got the best serve+return combo in tennis. And those two strokes will keep him relevant even when his movement ain't as quick.
    Anyhow, I don't expect another 6-7 either, but given the lack of obvious ATG's or even HoF'ers among the 89+ generation (and, when at his best, him owning Lendl-less Murray), I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility if he can work out his issues.
     
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2017
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  22. vive le beau jeu !

    vive le beau jeu ! G.O.A.T.

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    there are also some nice plots on tennis28.com @Hops (although needing to be updated) :

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  23. Jonas78

    Jonas78 Hall of Fame

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    Agassi definetly a good example. His game was not dependent on court coverage, and he did very well in his thirties. Novak has almost no weaknesses, so if can adjust his game and little and find the motivation, i think he can age well.

    When the records after Aussie17 was 18-12 instead of 17-13 it became a whole lot harder:). But it seems he wont be challenged by a very tough younger generation like Rafa, Delpo, Andy and Novak were for Federer, so:eek:.

    Novak sure can make Andy run, i remember the FO16 final, Murray was almost out of gas after first set.
     
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  24. Jonas78

    Jonas78 Hall of Fame

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    If i read this correct the average will probably stay a little higher than in the 80's and 90's. That is natural because of improvements in surgery, nutriton, rehabilitation etc. But it is reason to believe the average age will fall a bit when the very strong 85-88 generation doesnt win slams anymore.
     
  25. Russeljones

    Russeljones G.O.A.T.

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    Brilliant.
     
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  26. Chanwan

    Chanwan G.O.A.T.

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    yeah, still - regardless of the lost boys generation it will be hard. And yes, 18-12 is very different from 17-13, so that makes it a lot tougher now. I guess we'll know a lot more in a year's time. Is Novak just in a funk or is he in true and permanent decline? See also falstaff's post just above this one in RJ's post.

    I expect Novak to age somewhere between Rafa and Fed, leaning towards a decline closer to Fed's.
     
  27. MasturB

    MasturB Legend

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    It's really sad we lost a generation of players.

    Nishi. Raonic. Dimitrov. All looked so promising
     
  28. falstaff78

    falstaff78 Hall of Fame

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    your wish is my command sir. I'll take care of this in the next day or two.
     
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  29. falstaff78

    falstaff78 Hall of Fame

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  30. abmk

    abmk Talk Tennis Guru

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  31. falstaff78

    falstaff78 Hall of Fame

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    done!
     
  32. abmk

    abmk Talk Tennis Guru

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    thank you !
     
  33. The_18th_Slam

    The_18th_Slam Hall of Fame

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    Maybe you've mentioned this already, but I just wanted a clarification. For you to add something in the "aged 25" category, the player will have to have completed 25 and going on 26, right? Or are you doing something else?

    I often feel going 24.5-25.5 is more accurate than going 25-26 when you consider someone's success at the age of 25.
     
  34. falstaff78

    falstaff78 Hall of Fame

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    Yep. Rounded down following everyday convention!
     
  35. Jackuar

    Jackuar Professional

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    I'm surprised that turned out to be...

    Oops, what did I do? That means no USO!! :(
     
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