Alcaraz 2024 vs Djokovic 2017

[Meles]

Djokovic's Grandmother's stocking returns to the tennis court in 2024, but will it be another tale of woe, but for Carlos this time?

I was bit shocked when I looked at the Alcaraz Hard Court numbers in 2024 versus the last few years (see the table below). 2023 was definitely not great at the end of the year and he may have just been a bit worn out from the giant Djokovic matches of the Summer. It was a bit disappointing that his serve numbers in particular continued to lag since improvement in that area was part of the 2022 success and at 2021 Milan I saw him bombing 220 kph serves at will like he was Pete Sampras reborn. Now in 2024 suddenly his serve number are delivering (return very strong so far this year as well). 70% serve points won is a Federer like number. For comparison sake so far this year Sinner is 71.5% on serve points won which is exceptionally high and right around 56% points won on hard courts. Djokovic 2011-2016 might be a touch weaker than both on serve, but around 44% return points won and alway right at the 56% hard court points won (Federer and Nadal never really got above 55% in their best years). Djokovic may need to get a full body stocking for 2024 since he'll have to deal with both of these players. I suspect the Alcaraz sleeve is something to help him to continue to serve much harder and I've seen a few 220 kph bombs in Madrid when his back was against the wall. Unprecedented numbers from both players and Djokovic is fully capable of coming out on top in the 2024 race, but this field is no joke. Alcaraz may own slow hard courts and Sinner the faster ones. I've always viewed Alcaraz as a better hard court player than clay, but his indoor results etc. have made me a bit gun shy on his prospects. With these numbers in 2024 this is amazing and completely unprecedented for such a fresh poking youngster.

DR is dominance ratio. 1st% and 2nd% are points won numbers like SPW, which is total serve points won.

TOTALS	Match	Tiebreak	Ace%	1stIn	1st%	2nd%	Hld%	SPW	Brk%	RPW	TPW	DR
[x] Time Span: 2024; Surfa...	13-2 (87%)​	4-2 (67%)​	5.9%​	66.4%​	75.8%​	59.3%​	89.4%​	70.3%​	34.1%​	43.3%​	55.9%​	1.45​
[x] Time Span: 2023; Surfa...	28-9 (76%)​	12-5 (71%)​	5.5%​	65.1%​	72.3%​	56.9%​	85.3%​	66.9%​	26.2%​	40.3%​	52.9%​	1.22​
[x] Time Span: 2022; Surfa...	27-8 (77%)​	9-9 (50%)​	4.9%​	67.3%​	71.3%​	54.9%​	84.3%​	66.0%​	31.8%​	41.4%​	53.3%​	1.22​

 

[nolefam_2024]

Djokovic's Grandmother's stocking returns to the tennis court in 2024, but will it be another tale of woe, but for Carlos this time?

I was bit shocked when I looked at the Alcaraz Hard Court numbers in 2024 versus the last few years (see the table below). 2023 was definitely not great at the end of the year and he may have just been a bit worn out from the giant Djokovic matches of the Summer. It was a bit disappointing that his serve numbers in particular continued to lag since improvement in that area was part of the 2022 success and at 2021 Milan I saw him bombing 220 kph serves at will like he was Pete Sampras reborn. Now in 2024 suddenly his serve number are delivering (return very strong so far this year as well). 70% serve points won is a Federer like number. For comparison sake so far this year Sinner is 71.5% on serve points won which is exceptionally high and right around 56% points won on hard courts. Djokovic 2011-2016 might be a touch weaker than both on serve, but around 44% return points won and alway right at the 56% hard court points won (Federer and Nadal never really got above 55% in their best years). Djokovic may need to get a full body stocking for 2024 since he'll have to deal with both of these players. I suspect the Alcaraz sleeve is something to help him to continue to serve much harder and I've seen a few 220 kph bombs in Madrid when his back was against the wall. Unprecedented numbers from both players and Djokovic is fully capable of coming out on top in the 2024 race, but this field is no joke. Alcaraz may own slow hard courts and Sinner the faster ones. I've always viewed Alcaraz as a better hard court player than clay, but his indoor results etc. have made be a bit gun shy on his prospects. With these numbers in 2024 this is amazing and completely unprecedented for such a young player.

DR is dominance ratio. 1st% and 2nd% are points won numbers lie SPW which is total serve points won.

TOTALS	Match	Tiebreak	Ace%	1stIn	1st%	2nd%	Hld%	SPW	Brk%	RPW	TPW	DR
[x] Time Span: 2024; Surfa...	13-2 (87%)​	4-2 (67%)​	5.9%​	66.4%​	75.8%​	59.3%​	89.4%​	70.3%​	34.1%​	43.3%​	55.9%​	1.45​
[x] Time Span: 2023; Surfa...	28-9 (76%)​	12-5 (71%)​	5.5%​	65.1%​	72.3%​	56.9%​	85.3%​	66.9%​	26.2%​	40.3%​	52.9%​	1.22​
[x] Time Span: 2022; Surfa...	27-8 (77%)​	9-9 (50%)​	4.9%​	67.3%​	71.3%​	54.9%​	84.3%​	66.0%​	31.8%​	41.4%​	53.3%​	1.22​

No idea what these numbers are showing, is it just for hc?

Carlos was swept off the court 2 times this year. Once by Dimitrov and another time by Zverev. He basically turned into dust in both matches. While vs Sinner he did improve to win it but first set was 1-6.

I see very little reason his HLD % will remain 89.4. Already on clay this week, its dropped to 84. Carlos is breakable. His RPW is actually amazing this year. And he seems to have improved on it.

 

[NatF]

 

[Meles]

No idea what these numbers are showing, is it just for hc?

Carlos was swept off the court 2 times this year. Once by Dimitrov and another time by Zverev. He basically turned into dust in both matches. While vs Sinner he did improve to win it but first set was 1-6.

I see very little reason his HLD % will remain 89.4. Already on clay this week, its dropped to 84. Carlos is breakable. His RPW is actually amazing this year. And he seems to have improved on it.

Hard court numbers is what I only use or Clay if doing those numbers. They never should be mixed since for the relevant players they should have enough matches to get a good picture. It is early in 2024 so not a ton of matches. Australian Open would be fast hard courts. Miami probably average.

Stats are stats and I've never seen anyone this young this high including Djokovic or Federer at the same age.

To be clear Carlos is not in his hard court prime. And typically players will make a big jump the year they turn age 23, 24, or 25. Return numbers typically get a notch better and peak at this age (see Djoko 2011 and Nadal 2010). Sinner hit his prime this year at age 23. Even if these number back down some (and they probably will especially once indoor hard happens) they still are scary good.

I think the best compare might be Djokovic in 2007 early hard court swing when he had his early jump in level and I'll throw in 2008 early hard court season numbers (whole seasons from 2007-2010 Djoko is around the low 53%):

TOTALS	Match	Tiebreak	Ace%	1stIn	1st%	2nd%	Hld%	SPW	Brk%	RPW	TPW	DR
[x] Time Span: 14-Jan-2008...	17-4 (81%)​	7-2 (78%)​	9.5%​	63.2%​	76.1%​	56.9%​	89.2%​	69.1%​	33.2%​	42.6%​	55.3%​	1.38​
[x] Time Span: 01-Jan-2007...	24-5 (83%)​	4-4 (50%)​	8.3%​	65.5%​	73.6%​	56.6%​	87.9%​	67.8%​	34.7%​	42.5%​	55.0%​	1.32​

 

[Meles]

Here are the Carlos hard court starts from 2022 and 2023 (through Miami), so the jump/numbers aren't that out of line, 2024 is better serving than the same period in 2023.

TOTALS	Match	Tiebreak	Ace%	1stIn	1st%	2nd%	Hld%	SPW	Brk%	RPW	TPW	DR
[x] Time Span: 13-Feb-2023...	10-1 (91%)​	4-0 (100%)​	4.9%​	64.6%​	75.5%​	57.4%​	90.5%​	69.1%​	32.4%​	42.9%​	55.5%​	1.39​
[x] Time Span: 17-Jan-2022...	12-2 (86%)​	3-3 (50%)​	5.2%​	66.4%​	74.1%​	56.1%​	87.6%​	68.0%​	33.9%​	42.1%​	54.5%​	1.32​

and just for fun since 2023 was the sunshine double, here are the 2024 from the sunshine double only (Indian Wells and Miami):

TOTALS	Match	Tiebreak	Ace%	1stIn	1st%	2nd%	Hld%	SPW	Brk%	RPW	TPW	DR
[x] Time Span: 12-Feb-2024...	9-1 (90%)​	1-1 (50%)​	4.4%​	66.2%​	76.4%​	56.5%​	89.4%​	69.7%​	39.4%​	45.3%​	56.7%​	1.50​

The return jump in 2024 probably means that Carlos was playing against players who did not serve as well as a group and generally these players return better. So the 56.7% still is a jump and I'd guess the serve numbers for 2024 Sunshine double were kept a bit lower due to the number of better returners he faced. Overall the serve numbers are in fact getting betterer each year which is to be expected since Carlos nowhere near his serving prime based on age.