Alcaraz already surpassed Federer's career strength on clay

[Rovesciarete]

Forgot to write than one. Roger's weakest surface was clay, despite being one of the very best on it in the last decades, while being Charlie's strongest. So not surprising that thus a member of Sinneraz overtakes the career performance stats of one of the big three.

FEDERER Career Tour-Level Splits Top​

Split​	M​	W​	L​	Win%​	SPW​	RPW​	TPW​	DR​
Hard	953​	794​	159​	83.3%​	69.7%​	40.0%​	54.3%​	1.32​
Clay	300​	227​	73​	75.7%​	67.1%​	40.6%​	53.5%​	1.24​
Grass	223​	194​	29​	87.0%​	72.3%​	38.2%​	54.6%​	1.38​

ALCARAZ Tour-Level Splits Top​

Split​	M​	W​	L​	Win%​	SPW​	RPW​	TPW​	DR​
Hard	146​	109​	37​	74.7%​	67.0%​	40.7%​	53.2%​	1.23​
Clay	93​	76​	17​	81.7%​	64.3%​	43.8%​	53.7%​	1.23​
Grass	27​	24​	3​	88.9%​	67.3%​	39.5%​	53.0%​	1.21​

The current trend on clay is quite clear and running well above the career numbers. Still below in hardcourt and grass.

ALCARAZ Last 52 Weeks Tour-Level Splits Top​

Split​	M​	W​	L​	Win%​	SPW​	RPW​	TPW​	DR​
Hard	39​	30​	9​	76.9%​	69.7%​	41.4%​	54.5%​	1.37​
Clay	15​	12​	3​	80.0%​	63.7%​	44.8%​	54.1%​	1.24​
Grass	9​	8​	1​	88.9%​	67.6%​	40.0%​	53.7%​	1.2​

 

[NatF]

LOL

 

[Racquet_smash]

The guy who has a losing record on clay against retirement age Djo?

 

[GRASScaraz]

Federer would have won the last 4 French with his 2019 form

 

[kangaroo1973]

Lol no. Even 2015 clay Fed was a formidable opponent and would be a top 3 clay court player nowadays.
And Alcaraz did not have to face peak Rafa, last year he lost to 36 y.o. Djokovic in straight sets.
Fed beat peakiest version of Novaxx and played 3 competitive finals against the greatest clay court player world has ever seen.
Even older Fed would beat Alcaraz in 4 sets.

 

[kangaroo1973]

Federer would have won the last 4 French with his 2019 form

That seems possible and realistic. He played hell on clay in 2019 given his advanced age.

 

[RS]

Needs to do more I think.

3 RG's would be minimum requirement for me.

 

[jl809]

Anything is possible in the Casper Ruud era

 

[thrust]

Forgot to write than one. Roger's weakest surface was clay, despite being one of the very best on it in the last decades, while being Charlie's strongest. So not surprising that thus a member of Sinneraz overtakes the career performance stats of one of the big three.

FEDERER Career Tour-Level Splits Top​

Split​	M​	W​	L​	Win%​	SPW​	RPW​	TPW​	DR​
Hard	953​	794​	159​	83.3%​	69.7%​	40.0%​	54.3%​	1.32​
Clay	300​	227​	73​	75.7%​	67.1%​	40.6%​	53.5%​	1.24​
Grass	223​	194​	29​	87.0%​	72.3%​	38.2%​	54.6%​	1.38​

ALCARAZ Tour-Level Splits Top​

Split​	M​	W​	L​	Win%​	SPW​	RPW​	TPW​	DR​
Hard	146​	109​	37​	74.7%​	67.0%​	40.7%​	53.2%​	1.23​
Clay	93​	76​	17​	81.7%​	64.3%​	43.8%​	53.7%​	1.23​
Grass	27​	24​	3​	88.9%​	67.3%​	39.5%​	53.0%​	1.21​

The current trend on clay is quite clear and running well above the career numbers. Still below in hardcourt and grass.

ALCARAZ Last 52 Weeks Tour-Level Splits Top​

Split​	M​	W​	L​	Win%​	SPW​	RPW​	TPW​	DR​
Hard	39​	30​	9​	76.9%​	69.7%​	41.4%​	54.5%​	1.37​
Clay	15​	12​	3​	80.0%​	63.7%​	44.8%​	54.1%​	1.24​
Grass	9​	8​	1​	88.9%​	67.6%​	40.0%​	53.7%​	1.2​

NONSENSE!

 

[junior74]

Taylor Swift is better than The Beatles.

 

[Tennfan123]

Not the ragebait!

 

[kangaroo1973]

Taylor Swift is better than The Beatles.

Whaaaaaaatttttt?????????? Lol. No.
Beatles the greatest band in history. Ever heard of beatlemania? Gals were literally fainting when they caught a glimpse of the Beatles. Taylor Swift is good, but nowhere near close to Beatles.

 

[Poisoned Slice]

Whaaaaaaatttttt?????????? Lol. No.
Beatles the greatest band in history. Ever heard of beatlemania? Gals were literally fainting when they caught a glimpse of the Beatles. Taylor Swift is good, but nowhere near close to Beatles.

Turn on your sarcasm detector please.

 

[jl809]

Whaaaaaaatttttt?????????? Lol. No.
Beatles the greatest band in history. Ever heard of beatlemania? Gals were literally fainting when they caught a glimpse of the Beatles. Taylor Swift is good, but nowhere near close to Beatles.

I faint when I listen to Bad Blood or Who’s Afraid of Little Old Me, but that’s because my body is trying to save me from them

 

[Aabye5]

Whaaaaaaatttttt?????????? Lol. No.
Beatles the greatest band in history. Ever heard of beatlemania? Gals were literally fainting when they caught a glimpse of the Beatles. Taylor Swift is good, but nowhere near close to Beatles.

But she sold so many more records

 

[wang07]

Wonder how Carlos' formidable 1.23 DR would hold up against 06-08 Dal. Incredible resume already. Losing H2H to geriatric Djoker, 1-2 down to Zverev in RG final, Carlitos in straights in a hypothetical vs prime Rafa sounds like a sure bet.

 

[Aabye5]

Forgot to write than one. Roger's weakest surface was clay, despite being one of the very best on it in the last decades, while being Charlie's strongest. So not surprising that thus a member of Sinneraz overtakes the career performance stats of one of the big three.

FEDERER Career Tour-Level Splits Top​

Split​	M​	W​	L​	Win%​	SPW​	RPW​	TPW​	DR​
Hard	953​	794​	159​	83.3%​	69.7%​	40.0%​	54.3%​	1.32​
Clay	300​	227​	73​	75.7%​	67.1%​	40.6%​	53.5%​	1.24​
Grass	223​	194​	29​	87.0%​	72.3%​	38.2%​	54.6%​	1.38​

ALCARAZ Tour-Level Splits Top​

Split​	M​	W​	L​	Win%​	SPW​	RPW​	TPW​	DR​
Hard	146​	109​	37​	74.7%​	67.0%​	40.7%​	53.2%​	1.23​
Clay	93​	76​	17​	81.7%​	64.3%​	43.8%​	53.7%​	1.23​
Grass	27​	24​	3​	88.9%​	67.3%​	39.5%​	53.0%​	1.21​

The current trend on clay is quite clear and running well above the career numbers. Still below in hardcourt and grass.

ALCARAZ Last 52 Weeks Tour-Level Splits Top​

Split​	M​	W​	L​	Win%​	SPW​	RPW​	TPW​	DR​
Hard	39​	30​	9​	76.9%​	69.7%​	41.4%​	54.5%​	1.37​
Clay	15​	12​	3​	80.0%​	63.7%​	44.8%​	54.1%​	1.24​
Grass	9​	8​	1​	88.9%​	67.6%​	40.0%​	53.7%​	1.2​

It's an interesting insight. I do think Carlitos is stronger than Fed on clay, but...

This why there are limitations to stats. Context here is weak era. During Fed's heyday there was Guga, Djokovic, Soderling, Delpo...not to mention the whole Spanish Armada and their pirate king. What was his name again?


Carlitos has Oldovic, Tsitsipas, and Zverev. Medvedev made a quarterfinal for goodness sake!

 

[NatF]

Carlos has a higher win rate on grass as well, looks like HC is the only fortress Fed has left

 

[ForehandCross]

The only times charlie boi faced remotely the kind of competition Fred met at RG in the form Rafael and Novak, he ended up getting his behind handed to him.

Gave Fraud the clay field charlie boi has and he will win either the same number of RGs or 1 more.

 

[Racquet_smash]

2019 Fred wins 2024 RG. He straight setted the superstar of the last 3 editions after all.

 

[wang07]

Anything is possible in the Casper Ruud era

Heavy stats (against Fritz & Zverev) -> Heavy career -> Heavyweight champion

That's the way it goes now.

 

[Angrybirdstar]

please stick to setting up Sinner, don't set up Hewitt 2.0 for bullying

 

[nolefam_2024]

Forgot to write than one. Roger's weakest surface was clay, despite being one of the very best on it in the last decades, while being Charlie's strongest. So not surprising that thus a member of Sinneraz overtakes the career performance stats of one of the big three.

FEDERER Career Tour-Level Splits Top​

Split​	M​	W​	L​	Win%​	SPW​	RPW​	TPW​	DR​
Hard	953​	794​	159​	83.3%​	69.7%​	40.0%​	54.3%​	1.32​
Clay	300​	227​	73​	75.7%​	67.1%​	40.6%​	53.5%​	1.24​
Grass	223​	194​	29​	87.0%​	72.3%​	38.2%​	54.6%​	1.38​

ALCARAZ Tour-Level Splits Top​

Split​	M​	W​	L​	Win%​	SPW​	RPW​	TPW​	DR​
Hard	146​	109​	37​	74.7%​	67.0%​	40.7%​	53.2%​	1.23​
Clay	93​	76​	17​	81.7%​	64.3%​	43.8%​	53.7%​	1.23​
Grass	27​	24​	3​	88.9%​	67.3%​	39.5%​	53.0%​	1.21​

The current trend on clay is quite clear and running well above the career numbers. Still below in hardcourt and grass.

ALCARAZ Last 52 Weeks Tour-Level Splits Top​

Split​	M​	W​	L​	Win%​	SPW​	RPW​	TPW​	DR​
Hard	39​	30​	9​	76.9%​	69.7%​	41.4%​	54.5%​	1.37​
Clay	15​	12​	3​	80.0%​	63.7%​	44.8%​	54.1%​	1.24​
Grass	9​	8​	1​	88.9%​	67.6%​	40.0%​	53.7%​	1.2​

This makes sense. Federer was not clay specialist. His backhand was weak and would break down under constant pressure.

Carlos on clay is a natural. He would play game with a lot of baseline bullying. The way he dismantles a player on clay is incredible. This is where tpw comes from

 

[nolefam_2024]

As always Federer fans are clueless. The raz guy career is just started and they are giving us how Rogergod at his prime was better than Raz. Raz is just entered the prime. He is going to be a lot better with achievements and statistics between Nadal and DJOKOVIC who is much stronger than Roger on clay.

Barring injuries because let's face it I am not god, Alcaraz will win 4+ Roland Garros titles while federergod fans will be left saying if not for Nadal this guy is better than borg or such ********

 

[Jonesy]

No surprise here, 1 more RG and Carlos already surpasses Fed. His game is indeed more suited for clay than Fed.

 

[nolefam_2024]

No surprise here, 1 more RG and Carlos already surpasses Fed. His game is indeed more suited for clay than Fed.

I don't think he surpasses fed with 2 rg but all fed has left then are longevity records which will be easy for Raz to get to.

It's like sinner and Murray. 1 more slam doesn't put sinner ahead of Murray but then it's just matter of time that Murray created this resume. Sinner would most likely get past it.

 

[Rovesciarete]

This makes sense. Federer was not clay specialist. His backhand was weak and would break down under constant pressure.

Carlos on clay is a natural. He would play game with a lot of baseline bullying. The way he dismantles a player on clay is incredible. This is where tpw comes from

I think this tread works well as a litmus test, most posts just focus on outcome and only few on process. This is quite typical for the tennis fandom.

When people think about Fed on clay they can summon many magnificent matches, while having fewer of Alcaraz in mind and that lost gold too. It is very likely that Roger had a higher clay peak so far but Charlie is still improving fast.

Already Carlos has been winning last year a considerably higher percentage of clay points than Roger did over his career. Just for the latter they are roughly even. The future is bright indeed for the Spaniard.

 

[nolefam_2024]

I think this tread works well as a litmus test, most posts just focus on outcome and only few on process. This is quite typical for the tennis fandom.

When people think about Fed on clay they can summon many magnificent matches, while having fewer of Alcaraz in mind and that lost gold too. It is very likely that Roger had a higher clay peak so far but Charlie is still improving fast.

Already Carlos has been winning last year a considerably higher percentage of clay matches than Roger did over his career. Just for the latter they are roughly even. The future is bright indeed for the Spaniard.

Exactly.

I remember the same posters were so pessimistic last year for Roland Garros as all 3 Carlos Djokovic and Sinner were coming from injury. Carlos barely played a tournament on clay. Lost in Rio within a game? And in Madrid with hand injury.

Still he went to rg and beat 5 seeds. Korda.
FAA
Finalist tsitsipas
Sinner
Zverev

He is just guaranteed to be far better player than Federer on clay. Very likely better than Djokovic himself who is surely top 5 on clay himself .

 

[RaulRamirez]

Whaaaaaaatttttt?????????? Lol. No.
Beatles the greatest band in history. Ever heard of beatlemania? Gals were literally fainting when they caught a glimpse of the Beatles. Taylor Swift is good, but nowhere near close to Beatles.

Methinks that's the point he was making by analogy, fortified by sarcasm.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Exactly.

I remember the same posters were so pessimistic last year for Roland Garros as all 3 Carlos Djokovic and Sinner were coming from injury. Carlos barely played a tournament on clay. Lost in Rio within a game? And in Madrid with hand injury.

I actually wrote in that pessimism spring that his stats were actually looking very good. As so often judgement based on data beats pure opinion...

DJOKOVIC Career Tour-Level Splits Top​

Split​	M​	W​	L​	Win%​	Set%​	Game%​	TB%​	MS​	Hld%​	Brk%​	A%​	DF%​	1stIn​	1st%​	2nd%​	SPW​	RPW​	TPW​	DR​
Clay	355​	285​	70​	80.3%​	73.9%​	58.9%​	65.7%​	335​	81.9%​	35.5%​	4.9%​	2.5%​	65.8%​	70.7%​	54.1%​	65.0%​	43.8%​	54.2%​	1.25​

Interestingly last year he was roughly at the level of Nole's career numbers. Novak doing better with his serve, of course...

 

[M4tchP0int]

Federer issues on clay don't only come from Nadal.
If you withdraw the 16 encounters on clay between them , Roger is more or less in the 80% win club
Roger is slightly better than Coria but worse than Kuerten (got Str8 setted by Guga during his golden era of 04-07)
Not only that but only 300 matches on clay means Roger decided to skip a lot of grueling clay tournaments which allowed him to be fresh and marginally increase his win% because if he had decided to play a full clay schedule like Nadal , his win% would have likely dropped
Saying Carlos is better on Clay than Federer is a bit premature but imo it's just a matter of time before he surpass Federer on clay

 

[nolefam_2024]

I actually wrote in that pessimism spring that his stats were actually looking very good. As so often judgement based on data beats pure opinion...

DJOKOVIC Career Tour-Level Splits Top​

Split​	M​	W​	L​	Win%​	Set%​	Game%​	TB%​	MS​	Hld%​	Brk%​	A%​	DF%​	1stIn​	1st%​	2nd%​	SPW​	RPW​	TPW​	DR​
Clay	355​	285​	70​	80.3%​	73.9%​	58.9%​	65.7%​	335​	81.9%​	35.5%​	4.9%​	2.5%​	65.8%​	70.7%​	54.1%​	65.0%​	43.8%​	54.2%​	1.25​

Interestingly last year he was roughly at the level of Nole's career numbers. Novak doing better with his serve, of course...

Nadal followed by Djokovic is top 2 on clay post 1990 since when stats are available. It makes sense as I don't see anyone else better than Djokovic in this time. Lendl pre 90s is better by a hair.

Alcaraz third and Federer right there at number 4 makes sense as well as he was pretty good himself. But the gap between Federer and Djokovic is one percentage point which is huge. And Raz will likely go past Djokovic by end of his career.

 

[RS]

The Beatles are untouchable.

 

[nolefam_2024]

The Beatles are untouchable.

Beatles may be untouchable but Federer is not. Because in sports we have stats.

 

[RS]

Beatles may be untouchable but Federer is not. Because in sports we have stats.

I agree Federer isn't

 

[Rovesciarete]

But the gap between Federer and Djokovic is one percentage point which is huge.

It is difficult to overstate what a single percentage point in TPW means in elite tennis...

 

[RS]

Seriously though the Beatles are timeless.

 

[inflation_era]

Alky is winning 0 FO if peak Nadal in the way.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Alky is winning 0 FO if peak Nadal in the way.

Your Federer won 0 as well.

 

[inflation_era]

Your Federer won 0 as well.

0 = 0

 

[nolefam_2024]

0 = 0

Except raz is your opinion which has zero value and fed is a fact which has all value.

 

[inflation_era]

Except raz is your opinion which has zero value and fed is a fact which has all value.

Huh? It's a fact that Raz won 0 slams facing peak Nadal. It's also a fact that Djokovic won 0 FO facing peak Nadal.

 

[MeatTornado]

while being Charlie's strongest.

People can keep saying this, but I've yet to see anything that actually supports it.

 

[nolefam_2024]

People can keep saying this, but I've yet to see anything that actually supports it.

Of course it is his strongest. Beating Nadal Djokovic and Zverev at 19, winning Madrid again at 20 and Roland Garros. He will achieve massively

 

[MeatTornado]

Of course it is his strongest. Beating Nadal Djokovic and Zverev at 19, winning Madrid again at 20 and Roland Garros. He will achieve massively

Madrid being his best clay tourny is part of the problem.

On the slower clay of RG, MC and Rome he hasn't shown much. I know it's nitpicking, but RG 24 was easily the "worst" of his 4 major wins. He was still playing through an arm injury at the time, so I understand why, but he has a lot more to prove. His level on grass has been much higher, while he's been so much more vulnerable on Chatrier. Handed Zverev his first ever top 10 win, and nearly lost to him in the final last year. 0-2 against Djokovic compared to 2-0 at Wimbledon.

He could potentially be one of the greatest ever clay courters for all I know. But as of right now, there's very little to support it being his best surface by results or form. It just seems like an assumption because his initial breakout for people to notice him came on clay (and also the Spanish factor).

 

[Ray Mercer]

Carlos can’t even beat a geriatric Djokovic. A prime Federer would mop the floor with Carlos. Federer would have 6 RG titles without Nadal. Get a clue.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Madrid being his best clay tourny is part of the problem.

On the slower clay of RG, MC and Rome he hasn't shown much. I know it's nitpicking, but RG 24 was easily the "worst" of his 4 major wins. He was still playing through an arm injury at the time, so I understand why, but he has a lot more to prove. His level on grass has been much higher, while he's been so much more vulnerable on Chatrier. Handed Zverev his first ever top 10 win, and nearly lost to him in the final last year. 0-2 against Djokovic compared to 2-0 at Wimbledon.

He could potentially be one of the greatest ever clay courters for all I know. But as of right now, there's very little to support it being his best surface by results or form. It just seems like an assumption because his initial breakout for people to notice him came on clay (and also the Spanish factor).

You know its nitpicking. He has not even played MC in last 2 years. But he played Barcelona 3 times and won 2.
Total 8 titles already despite missing a lot of time due to injuries.

 

[Berrettini_Fan]

Alcaraz is actually pretty weak on Clay, relatively speaking. He has not shown to be the next coming of Kuerten or even Muster, much less the next coming of Nadal or Borg.

 

[a10best]

Measuring 4 years (from May 2021) against 20 years.
What could be wrong with that calculation? Everything.

 

[mike danny]

He's better on clay at a young age than Fed was at a young age. But overall? Not even close. The fact that he has a losing record to Oldovic doesn't help his case.