Alcaraz already surpassed Federer's career strength on clay

[dking68]

Absolutely. It's grass by a landslide as of now.

He should've lost to Tiafoe last year. If Joker had won the second set at WB 2023, it likely would've been a straight set drumming against the Spaniard.

 

[Hitman]

He should've lost to Tiafoe last year. If Joker had won the second set at WB 2023, it likely would've been a straight set drumming against the Spaniard.

Yep. People forget how close he was to losing Wimbledon events.

 

[FedForGOAT]

As always Federer fans are clueless. The raz guy career is just started and they are giving us how Rogergod at his prime was better than Raz. Raz is just entered the prime. He is going to be a lot better with achievements and statistics between Nadal and DJOKOVIC who is much stronger than Roger on clay.

Barring injuries because let's face it I am not god, Alcaraz will win 4+ Roland Garros titles while federergod fans will be left saying if not for Nadal this guy is better than borg or such ********

No, Federer fans can read. Shall I read the title, literally the first line of this thread to you?

“Alcaraz ALREADY surpassed Federer’s career strength in clay”
This means that arguments about Alcaraz just entering his prime are irrelevant to this claim. So are predictions about his future prowess or 4 RG titles.

-2/10 Trolling attempt. Find better stuff to do.

 

[FedForGOAT]

Forgot to write than one. Roger's weakest surface was clay, despite being one of the very best on it in the last decades, while being Charlie's strongest. So not surprising that thus a member of Sinneraz overtakes the career performance stats of one of the big three.

FEDERER Career Tour-Level Splits Top​

Split​	M​	W​	L​	Win%​	SPW​	RPW​	TPW​	DR​
Hard	953​	794​	159​	83.3%​	69.7%​	40.0%​	54.3%​	1.32​
Clay	300​	227​	73​	75.7%​	67.1%​	40.6%​	53.5%​	1.24​
Grass	223​	194​	29​	87.0%​	72.3%​	38.2%​	54.6%​	1.38​

ALCARAZ Tour-Level Splits Top​

Split​	M​	W​	L​	Win%​	SPW​	RPW​	TPW​	DR​
Hard	146​	109​	37​	74.7%​	67.0%​	40.7%​	53.2%​	1.23​
Clay	93​	76​	17​	81.7%​	64.3%​	43.8%​	53.7%​	1.23​
Grass	27​	24​	3​	88.9%​	67.3%​	39.5%​	53.0%​	1.21​

The current trend on clay is quite clear and running well above the career numbers. Still below in hardcourt and grass.

ALCARAZ Last 52 Weeks Tour-Level Splits Top​

Split​	M​	W​	L​	Win%​	SPW​	RPW​	TPW​	DR​
Hard	39​	30​	9​	76.9%​	69.7%​	41.4%​	54.5%​	1.37​
Clay	15​	12​	3​	80.0%​	63.7%​	44.8%​	54.1%​	1.24​
Grass	9​	8​	1​	88.9%​	67.6%​	40.0%​	53.7%​	1.2​

Remove matches against Nadal from both sets and rerun the numbers. I wonder what you’ll see

 

[timnz]

Achievement vs player strength. One just looks at the past, the other compares the rare performance so far of a young ATG with a past great.

Currently the stats like TPW and DR indicate that the Carlos plays at a higher level than Roger.

Everybody is free to find reasons for it like the roughly 16 out of 300 clay matches against Nadal, a supposed weak era, the fall of tennis…

Ultimately it is all about achievement though, correct? If someone is playing at a higher level but doesn’t achieve as much then the higher level doesn’t mean as much, yes?

 

[nolefam_2024]

Ultimately it is all about achievement though, correct? If someone is playing at a higher level but doesn’t achieve as much then the higher level doesn’t mean as much, yes?

Not really a point at all when we are talking about 21 year old.
Right now we measure STRENGTH and when he is geezer we measure achievements.

 

[timnz]

Not really a point at all when we are talking about 21 year old.
Right now we measure STRENGTH and when he is geezer we measure achievements.

That’s a measure of potential and yes Alcatraz’s potential is sky high. But the player has to deliver, which Alcaraz in time will no doubt do

 

[nolefam_2024]

That’s a measure of potential and yes Alcatraz’s potential is sky high. But the player has to deliver, which Alcaraz in time will no doubt do

Yes and he will be better than federer on clay as the bar is not highest. Djokovic is higher bar but he will very likely cross it.

 

[Racquet_smash]

His best slam win by level was Wimbledon last year IMO.

Wimbledon 2023 was way better before the final. He just didn't face a ghost in the final.

 

[timnz]

Yes and he will be better than federer on clay as the bar is not highest. Djokovic is higher bar but he will very likely cross it.

The title of the thread is “

Alcaraz already surpassed Federer's career strength on clay”​

Potential is thinner than actual achievement . Anyway, good to talk about it - obviously we have a different view

 

[mike danny]

Ultimately it is all about achievement though, correct? If someone is playing at a higher level but doesn’t achieve as much then the higher level doesn’t mean as much, yes?

It doesn't always depend on you though.

 

[DSH]

Federer would have won the last 4 French with his 2019 form

Nah, he is not beating 2022 Nadal.

 

[DSH]

That seems possible and realistic. He played hell on clay in 2019 given his advanced age.

No, nothing possible and realistic, he beat an exhausted Wawrinka in the quarterfinals of RG 2019, otherwise he wouldn't have reached the semi-finals.

 

[DSH]

Carlos can’t even beat a geriatric Djokovic. A prime Federer would mop the floor with Carlos. Federer would have 6 RG titles without Nadal. Get a clue.

RG 2008 is a toss up against Joker, really.

 

[DSH]

TTW a place outside of reality where Federer wins all hypotheticals.

Federer always wins in hypotheticals, even on his worst surface.

 

[Hitman]

Nah, he is not beating 2022 Nadal.

FAA nearly beat him...had Federer played that drunken hangover version of Nadal, I wouldn't be surprised to see Federer beat him.

 

[TheFifthSet]

Another thread where people act like tennis stats have baseball-level explanatory power lol.

(Not OP, he’s solid.)

 

[DSH]

FAA nearly beat him...had Federer played that drunken hangover version of Nadal, I wouldn't be surprised to see Federer beat him.

No, Nadal's best match of RG 2022 was against your idol in the quarterfinals, that version is enough to defeat the 2019 RG version of Federer.
And you have to remember that players with one-handed backhands have no chance against Nadal in a best of five sets at Roland Garros.

 

[Hitman]

No, Nadal's best match of RG 2022 was against your idol in the quarterfinals, that version is enough to defeat the 2019 RG version of Federer.
And you have to remember that players with one-handed backhands have no chance against Nadal in a best of five sets at Roland Garros.

I am speaking specifically about the 4th round version. Nadal was clearly suffering from hangover and was ripe for the pickings. Had Federer played that version I would not be surprised at all if he won. Nadal was crap in that match. FAA pushed him to the brink with his limited game.

 

[DSH]

I am speaking specifically about the 4th round version. Nadal was clearly suffering from hangover and was ripe for the pickings. Had Federer played that version I would not be surprised at all if he won. Nadal was crap in that match. FAA pushed him to the brink with his limited game.

Due to ranking, they would not have been able to face each other in the fourth round.

 

[Ray Mercer]

I am not being harsh. I am pointing out that simply saying Nadal was the reason is wrong.

Come on Hitman. Federer would likely have won 5 straight RG titles without Nadal. How can you just ignore this because he lost to Kuerten in 04? I like Alcaraz but he barely scraped by Zverev to win last year. Alcaraz is about as streaky as it gets. He’s losing to a crippled Djokovic and bums like Botic right now. I think the second he loses a step athletically he’s toast. He doesn’t have the serve, ability to take it early or the IQ to compensate.

 

[Sudacafan]

Taylor Swift is better than The Beatles.

And ABBA?

 

[Hitman]

Come on Hitman. Federer would likely have won 5 straight RG titles without Nadal. How can you just ignore this because he lost to Kuerten in 04? I like Alcaraz but he barely scraped by Zverev to win last year. Alcaraz is about as streaky as it gets. He’s losing to a crippled Djokovic and bums like Botic right now. I think the second he loses a step athletically he’s toast. He doesn’t have the serve, ability to take it early or the IQ to compensate.

Firstly, regarding Federer winning five straight RG titles. I will have to disagree with that, I don't see him beating Djokovic at RG 2008. You can disagree, but that is how I see it. Even in 2005, he would be facing a drug enhanced Puerta in the final, who really made Nadal work. Would Federer have a few titles without Nadal? Yes, I would safely assume he would, but not the numbers you are saying. We will need to agree to disagree on that.

And we have yet to see peak Alcaraz, we don't know where he will be three or four years from now level wise. He is only 21 right now, and he has a RG title, so he is on course, if we run their careers side by side, at this moment in time to overtake. Where was Federer at 21? He started getting it all together about two months before his 22nd birthday, so Alcaraz deserves at least the time to show us what his absolute level is.

 

[Hitman]

Due to ranking, they would not have been able to face each other in the fourth round.

Just take Nadal out the night before and get him drunk again. Simple.

 

[junior74]

And ABBA?

Everything evolves.

 

[Sudacafan]

Everything evolves.

So Bad Bunny is better than Michael Jackson.

 

[junior74]

So Bad Bunny is better than Michael Jackson.

Barbie > Godfather

 

[MichaelNadal]

Its because of Nadal.

A lot of things are

 

[Jonas78]

A lot of things are

Yup. Like Alcaraz would have the La Coupe des Mousquetaires in his closet if he played Nadal 2005-2008...

 

[RS]

But that match wasn’t much good.

I liked it

 

[Djokovic2011]

And ABBA?

Arrival is one of the best pop albums ever.

 

[Sudacafan]

Arrival is one of the best pop albums ever.

Can’t choose one of their 70’s albums with hits.
Maybe Arrival has more than others.

 

[Ray Mercer]

Firstly, regarding Federer winning five straight RG titles. I will have to disagree with that, I don't see him beating Djokovic at RG 2008. You can disagree, but that is how I see it. Even in 2005, he would be facing a drug enhanced Puerta in the final, who really made Nadal work. Would Federer have a few titles without Nadal? Yes, I would safely assume he would, but not the numbers you are saying. We will need to agree to disagree on that.

And we have yet to see peak Alcaraz, we don't know where he will be three or four years from now level wise. He is only 21 right now, and he has a RG title, so he is on course, if we run their careers side by side, at this moment in time to overtake. Where was Federer at 21? He started getting it all together about two months before his 22nd birthday, so Alcaraz deserves at least the time to show us what his absolute level is.

I strongly disagree that Federer would have only a “few more” titles. He’s absolutely winning in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2011. That puts him at 5 RG titles. 2008 is debatable even though I’m going Federer. That is a tremendous clay career. That’s not even including all of the Masters finals Federer lost to Nadal.

As for Alcaraz, he is ahead of Federer at the same age but he is way more dependant on speed and retrieving than Federer ever was. Those skill sets will not age well. His height will never allow him to compensate with an elite serve and he can’t rely on the lefty spin advantage that Nadal had. Alcaraz is losing to way too many different opponents right now. If Sinner improves on clay and grass he’s in big trouble.

 

[Hitman]

I strongly disagree that Federer would have only a “few more” titles. He’s absolutely winning in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2011. That puts him at 5 RG titles. 2008 is debatable even though I’m going Federer. That is a tremendous clay career. That’s not even including all of the Masters finals Federer lost to Nadal.

As for Alcaraz, he is ahead of Federer at the same age but he is way more dependant on speed and retrieving than Federer ever was. Those skill sets will not age well. His height will never allow him to compensate with an elite serve and he can’t rely on the lefty spin advantage that Nadal had. Alcaraz is losing to way too many different opponents right now. If Sinner improves on clay and grass he’s in big trouble.

OK we strongly disagree with each other.

 

[Jonas78]

Firstly, regarding Federer winning five straight RG titles. I will have to disagree with that, I don't see him beating Djokovic at RG 2008. You can disagree, but that is how I see it. Even in 2005, he would be facing a drug enhanced Puerta in the final, who really made Nadal work. Would Federer have a few titles without Nadal? Yes, I would safely assume he would, but not the numbers you are saying. We will need to agree to disagree on that.

And we have yet to see peak Alcaraz, we don't know where he will be three or four years from now level wise. He is only 21 right now, and he has a RG title, so he is on course, if we run their careers side by side, at this moment in time to overtake. Where was Federer at 21? He started getting it all together about two months before his 22nd birthday, so Alcaraz deserves at least the time to show us what his absolute level is.

If im correct, Federer only lost to 3 non-Nadals on clay in the years 2005-2008. He lost to Nadal 9 times, including 8 finals and one SF. Im not saying he wins all those titles, but i think "a few titles" without Nadal is an understatement .

Ofc we wont know how Alcaraz would do against the Nadal of 2005-2008, but i have a feeling he wouldnt do much better than Federer did.

 

[TheFifthSet]

If im correct, Federer only lost to 3 non-Nadals on clay in the years 2005-2008. He lost to Nadal 9 times, including 8 finals and one SF. Im not saying he wins all those titles, but i think "a few titles" without Nadal is an understatement .

Ofc we wont know how Alcaraz would do against the Nadal of 2005-2008, but i have a feeling he wouldnt do much better than Federer did.

What’s also frequently overlooked is that Fed punted clay for much of his post-prime period. I don’t mean only skipping the tournament (that happened twice), I’m talking about him very clearly not prioritizing clay as much as other surfaces, not tailoring his game to it, etc. We all know why that was, and most would agreed it was justifiable. I don’t think he should receive unearned credit for it but it feels silly to not recognize the huge difference in competition between the two. It’ll take a lot more than a second RG title for Alcaraz to be the better player on the surface.

 

[Jonas78]

What’s also frequently overlooked is that Fed punted clay for much of his post-prime period. I don’t mean just skipping the tournament, I’m talking about him very clearly not prioritizing clay as much as other surfaces, not tailoring his game to it, etc. We all know why that was, and most would agreed it was justifiable. I don’t think he should receive unearned credit for it but it feels silly to not recognize the huge difference in competition between the two. It’ll take a lot more than a second RG title for Alcaraz to be the better player on the surface.

Federers prime was 2004-2012 with a few slumps. Nadals strongest period on clay was 2005-2013. Its almost entirely overlapping. The level of competiton Nadal gave in this period is unmatched, and made Federer a huge underachiever. I will always see it this way.

 

[Rovesciarete]

What’s also frequently overlooked is that Fed punted clay for much of his post-prime period. I don’t mean only skipping the tournament (that happened twice), I’m talking about him very clearly not prioritizing clay as much as other surfaces, not tailoring his game to it, etc. We all know why that was, and most would agreed it was justifiable. I don’t think he should receive unearned credit for it but it feels silly to not recognize the huge difference in competition between the two. It’ll take a lot more than a second RG title for Alcaraz to be the better player on the surface.

There was a bit of a vicious cycle for Roger during his prime years on clay. How much effort do you want to put into your game on a surface, where you will face in the end the goat of clay, which is additionally on it also a terrible matchup...

Big opportunity costs and Fed remained likely below his possibilities, especially after 2009. That doesn't make him a better player on clay than Alcaraz, but he could have been better in different circumstances than he was.

 

[Jonas78]

There was a bit of a vicious cycle for Roger during his prime years on clay. How much effort do you want to put into your game on a surface, where you will face in the end the goat of clay, which is additionally on it also a terrible matchup...

Big opportunity costs and Fed remained likely below his possibilities, especially after 2009. That doesn't make him a better player on clay than Alcaraz, but he could have been better in different circumstances than he was.

2005-2014 clay was vicious for everyone...

 

[Incognito]

Only if he wins another FO.

Id still contend Fed had the second or third highest peak on clay ever.

Credit to Carlos, as good as he is on clay, he could have been as great Rafa on the surface if he had Rafa’s brain.