Alcaraz generational talent : will win 4+ Roland Garros

nolefam_2024

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
Carlos Alcaraz has perfect game for clay. His serve is good enough on clay with great kicker out wide. For his height, he can put enough juice to generate 220+ mph on occasion ala Wawrinka.

His forehand is very versatile. Breaking the sidelines on will and creating angles. As well as able to disguise the forehand dropshot and completely catch opponents off guard.

His speed is incredible. Probably fastest player since Rafa Nadal in early days. He can track down almost any shot.

Alcaraz is turned 21 now. Lendl won his first RG at age 24. But later on went to finish at 3, could have gone to win 4 if not for his obsession with Wimbledon.

This year his results will depend deeply on how fit he is but if fit, he becomes the top favorite for rg. Despite not playing at his best this year on clay, his skillset will make him a huge success on this surface..


 
Dominic Thiem reached major finals on clay and beaten Nadal 4 times on this surface. But Thiem return of serve did put distinct disadvantage for him. Similar to Wawrinka, at best Thiem would win 1/2 RG even if he never got injured.

Alcaraz on the other hand has huge leg up in return rates.
 
nolefam_2024 said:
Carlos Alcaraz has perfect game for clay. His serve is good enough on clay with great kicker out wide. For his height, he can put enough juice to generate 220+ mph on occasion ala Wawrinka.

His forehand is very versatile. Breaking the sidelines on will and creating angles. As well as able to disguise the forehand dropshot and completely catch opponents off guard.

His speed is incredible. Probably fastest player since Rafa Nadal in early days. He can track down almost any shot.

Alcaraz is turned 21 now. Lendl won his first RG at age 24. But later on went to finish at 3, could have gone to win 4 if not for his obsession with Wimbledon.

This year his results will depend deeply on how fit he is but if fit, he becomes the top favorite for rg. Despite not playing at his best this year on clay, his skillset will make him a huge success on this surface..


Click to expand...
I want to see him win one before hoping or predicting 4 of them.
 
nolefam_2024 said:
Carlos Alcaraz has perfect game for clay. His serve is good enough on clay with great kicker out wide. For his height, he can put enough juice to generate 220+ mph on occasion ala Wawrinka.

His forehand is very versatile. Breaking the sidelines on will and creating angles. As well as able to disguise the forehand dropshot and completely catch opponents off guard.

His speed is incredible. Probably fastest player since Rafa Nadal in early days. He can track down almost any shot.

Alcaraz is turned 21 now. Lendl won his first RG at age 24. But later on went to finish at 3, could have gone to win 4 if not for his obsession with Wimbledon.

This year his results will depend deeply on how fit he is but if fit, he becomes the top favorite for rg. Despite not playing at his best this year on clay, his skillset will make him a huge success on this surface..


Click to expand...
Wow talk about an explosive athlete
 
Gary Duane said:
I want to see him win one before hoping or predicting 4 of them.
Click to expand...
Yes. Let's see.

QF in 2022.
SF in 2023.

He said his priority is going at least 1 step ahead. So let's see.

Just for reference.
Djokovic first rg final came at age 25.1
Federer age 24.10
Wawrinka 30
Thiem aged 24.9
Tsitsipas aged 22.9
Murray 29.1
Ruud 23.6
Ferrer 31.2
Coria 22.5
Soderling 25 or something.

No finalist in last 20 years reached RG final at age 21. Except Nadal of course.
 
nolefam_2024 said:
Yes. Let's see.

QF in 2022.
SF in 2023.

He said his priority is going at least 1 step ahead. So let's see.

Just for reference.
Djokovic first rg final came at age 25.1
Federer age 24.10
Wawrinka 30
Thiem aged 24.9
Tsitsipas aged 22.9
Murray 29.1
Ruud 23.6
Ferrer 31.2
Coria 22.5
Soderling 25 or something.

No finalist in last 20 years reached RG final at age 21. Except Nadal of course.
Click to expand...
Young success does not always lead to an all time great career. I have two worries about Carlos. The first is whether or not his service game is going to improve. He does not as yet win enough service games. To me his body is also a question. He is having a lot of problems for someone so young.
 
Gary Duane said:
Young success does not always lead to an all time great career. I have two worries about Carlos. The first is whether or not his service game is going to improve. He does not as yet win enough service games. To me his body is also a question. He is having a lot of problems for someone so young.
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I agree about second pt. Alcaraz body has failed him a lot of times. My hope is as he gets older he will stop having such issues. Unless he is super unlucky like Delpo.

On service games this is clay. You can't get 88/90% holds anyway. His brk % is pretty high.
 
He's my favorite young player by far, even though I think Sinner may have a slightly higher ceiling but my worries for clay is that he can get impatient, which is not great for clay if you're playing a guy who's playing well. Having said that, maybe I'm just comparing him to Nadal, who in the 20 years I've watched him, has made maybe 2 mistakes on clay. I mean, Nadal knows where to stand, where the next shot will go, what angle he should hit, how aggressive or defensive he should be. I've just never seen a more strategically perfect player, especially on clay
 
TheRed said:
He's my favorite young player by far, even though I think Sinner may have a slightly higher ceiling but my worries for clay is that he can get impatient, which is not great for clay if you're playing a guy who's playing well. Having said that, maybe I'm just comparing him to Nadal, who in the 20 years I've watched him, has made maybe 2 mistakes on clay. I mean, Nadal knows where to stand, where the next shot will go, what angle he should hit, how aggressive or defensive he should be. I've just never seen a more strategically perfect player, especially on clay
Click to expand...
Yes maybe people are comparing him to Nadal.

Last year I was not afraid of Carlos because he is not Nadal on clay. He is definitely lesser player. But his ceiling is very high on this surface. Last year he won 61% of total games. Even in 2021 at age of 17/18 he was in top 8 clay players on total games won %.

His return stats are incredible and service does hold up on clay. He might be Djokovic+ on this surface so I think 4+.
 
UnforcedTerror said:
6+ imo. Barring injuries, it's hard to see him not dominating RG for the next decade.
Click to expand...
Only few players won 6+ slams in open era.

Federer at AO and Wimbledon
Nadal at rg
Djokovic at AO and Wimbledon
Sampras at Wimbledon
Borg at RG

It's pretty ambitious target. Let's see..
 
nolefam_2024 said:
I agree about second pt. Alcaraz body has failed him a lot of times. My hope is as he gets older he will stop having such issues. Unless he is super unlucky like Delpo.

On service games this is clay. You can't get 88/90% holds anyway. His brk % is pretty high.
Click to expand...
The total numbers on clay are the highest. Hardcourt is lower. And grass is even lower. It's always been that way. So look at total games in percentage and total points in percentage.

Nadal is the gold standard obviously. He has won about 64% of his games for his career on clay. Right below him in second place is Borg, at almost 63%. Lendl is almost exactly 60%. The reason games are so important is that this is the only metric we have for all of the open era. Other stats we have today are not available before around 1991.

Carlos is 13th on this list and that is very good.

For games on return he's in a good spot. I will mention to you it almost all players decline in this stat after around age 24. Djokovic hit his peak in 2011. Seen from that perspective everything after that has declined. But Djokovic had a relatively weak serve for an all time great when he peaked on defense. So his serve and his service game by continuing to improve allowed him to keep his total numbers in an excellent place. That's why he is still winning.

Carlos is way down the list for career service games on clay. Unlike returning, this stat can go up and up and up almost for a whole career just like Djokovic. And a career stat on serving for such a young player is going to be much lower because that's how it works. So if he is going to become an all time great on clay, this one stat has to come up quite a bit. It was up a good deal last year.

See if you can find this stat for 2024. It used to be really easy to find on the atp site but they have changed it and everything is a mess now. If Carlos raises his percentage of games on clay to close to 60% or above and he stays healthy then he is going to be an absolute monster. But I don't think he is there there yet.
 
Gary Duane said:
The total numbers on clay are the highest. Hardcourt is lower. And grass is even lower. It's always been that way. So look at total games in percentage and total points in percentage.

Nadal is the gold standard obviously. He has won about 64% of his games for his career on clay. Right below him in second place is Borg, at almost 63%. Lendl is almost exactly 60%. The reason games are so important is that this is the only metric we have for all of the open era. Other stats we have today are not available before around 1991.

Carlos is 13th on this list and that is very good.

For games on return he's in a good spot. I will mention to you it almost all players decline in this stat after around age 24. Djokovic hit his peak in 2011. Seen from that perspective everything after that has declined. But Djokovic had a relatively weak serve for an all time great when he peaked on defense. So his serve and his service game by continuing to improve allowed him to keep his total numbers in an excellent place. That's why he is still winning.

Carlos is way down the list for career service games on clay. Unlike returning, this stat can go up and up and up almost for a whole career just like Djokovic. And a career stat on serving for such a young player is going to be much lower because that's how it works. So if he is going to become an all time great on clay, this one stat has to come up quite a bit. It was up a good deal last year.

See if you can find this stat for 2024. It used to be really easy to find on the atp site but they have changed it and everything is a mess now. If Carlos raises his percentage of games on clay to close to 60% or above and he stays healthy then he is going to be an absolute monster. But I don't think he is there there yet.
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Yes I can find it for 2024. On tennis abstract.

Carlos in last 52 weeks on clay is at around 59.7 on games won % on clay. For 2024 would be just removing rg.

Like you said his hold % is lower but brk % is great.

I think Lendl and Djokovic are total peers on clay. Alcaraz may be at their level or just a bit higher.
 
@Gary Duane disagree on total numbers on clay are highest then hc and then grass. That's only applicable for clay players imo.

Look at Roddick's numbers. Or medvedev's.

Both have highest numbers on hc and lowest on clay.

It depends on how much you lose on serve vs how much you gain on return. A player like Rublev gains almost nothing on return on clay but loses massively on serve. So it's actually bad to move to clay for him.

While someone like Tsitsipas loses a bit on serve but gains massively on return on clay.

In the end it's groundstrokers heaven.
 
nolefam_2024 said:
@Gary Duane disagree on total numbers on clay are highest then hc and then grass. That's only applicable for clay players imo.

Look at Roddick's numbers. Or medvedev's.

Both have highest numbers on hc and lowest on clay.

It depends on how much you lose on serve vs how much you gain on return. A player like Rublev gains almost nothing on return on clay but loses massively on serve. So it's actually bad to move to clay for him.

While someone like Tsitsipas loses a bit on serve but gains massively on return on clay.

In the end it's groundstrokers heaven.
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Look at all players. Look at the very best on each surface. Compare the greatest records on grass, hard courts, and clay. Those numbers are highest on clay and lowest on grass.
 
I found it...

Individual Match Stats | ATP Tour | Tennis

www.atptour.com www.atptour.com

This stat is way too low. It absolutely has to come up if he is going to win Roland Garros.

Individual Match Stats | ATP Tour | Tennis

www.atptour.com www.atptour.com

This is good. But keep in mind that in 2008 Nadal won around 50% of his return games on clay. A good ballpark way to get an idea of where a player, is is to add these two percentages.

33.33+80.52

Then divide in half. It's a little bit more complicated than that because players do not play as many service games as they do return games. But you can see that's going to be around 57. That stat will win a clay major but not 4.

That's why you have to put together the return game and the serve game. In order to get to 60% for all games when only winning around 80% of service games, you have to win around 40% of return games to get to that magic place of 60% for all games.
 
nolefam_2024 said:
Yes I can find it for 2024. On tennis abstract.

Carlos in last 52 weeks on clay is at around 59.7 on games won % on clay. For 2024 would be just removing rg.

Like you said his hold % is lower but brk % is great.

I think Lendl and Djokovic are total peers on clay. Alcaraz may be at their level or just a bit higher.
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You are getting different numbers from the ATP site. Be aware that since they changed their formatting other websites are no longer getting updated information. I believe the stat that you are quoting is inaccurate.
 
Barring injury, I think that Alcaraz could put up an ATG resume on dirt. He shocked everybody when he won Madrid by beating Nadal, Djoker, then Zverev to win that title. He was barely 19 years old when he did that. And it was the way he did it. Beating Nadal and Djoker in back-to-back matches that went to a deciding set showed that this teenager had nerves of steal.
 
Gary Duane said:
I found it...

Individual Match Stats | ATP Tour | Tennis

www.atptour.com www.atptour.com

This stat is way too low. It absolutely has to come up if he is going to win Roland Garros.

Individual Match Stats | ATP Tour | Tennis

www.atptour.com www.atptour.com

This is good. But keep in mind that in 2008 Nadal won around 50% of his return games on clay. A good ballpark way to get an idea of where a player, is is to add these two percentages.

33.33+80.52

Then divide in half. It's a little bit more complicated than that because players do not play as many service games as they do return games. But you can see that's going to be around 57. That stat will win a clay major but not 4.

That's why you have to put together the return game and the serve game. In order to get to 60% for all games when only winning around 80% of service games, you have to win around 40% of return games to get to that magic place of 60% for all games.
Click to expand...
I give anyone above 115 hold plus brk % as legit chance of winning grand slams. That player will probably win a slam.


Yes to dominate a slam you probably need something like 58+ % game won %

Eg. Roger and Novak both have 58.6 and 58.5 games won % at Wimbledon. Or grass in general. They dominated and won 8 and 7.

60% will be absurd and only someone like Nadal on clay will get this over long duration of time.
 
The only thing i am worried is his health. It's getting a little bit disturbing. He already had a lot of small niggles and couple of more serious injuries at such a young age.

If he stays healthy i am sure he is going to win a lot of grand slams on multiple surfaces.
 
Alcaraz will end up winning 4+ titles here.

Djokovic managed to win 3. Alcaraz has higher gear than Nole here on clay. Slightly better I think. Both sinner and zverev could have won the match vs him.
 
Who knows, both Alcaraz and Sinner are already displaying repeated injury issues at the very beginning of their careers which will most likely shorten their careers

The thing is that the Big 3 have set the athletic bar so high that the necessary level has become incredibly demanding on the body.

They will have to figure out how to keep their bodies health for a very long period of time
 
jackson vile said:
Who knows, both Alcaraz and Sinner are already displaying repeated injury issues at the very beginning of their careers which will most likely shorten their careers

The thing is that the Big 3 have set the athletic bar so high that the necessary level has become incredibly demanding on the body.

They will have to figure out how to keep their bodies health for a very long period of time
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I can't in good conscience add Nadal and say he set bar high. If Carlos is injury prone then Nadal is his senior. He was also injured for many years and missed slams due to it.

If Nadal can stay at slam winning level till 36, then can't Carlos be active at least till 32?
 
nolefam_2024 said:
I can't in good conscience add Nadal and say he set bar high. If Carlos is injury prone then Nadal is his senior. He was also injured for many years and missed slams due to it.

If Nadal can stay at slam winning level till 36, then can't Carlos be active at least till 32?
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If Carlos is still winning slams at age 36, I promise to never post again.
 
Right now RG might seem like his saving ground. If sinner is what he was last year, he would post huge problems for everyone on grass.

But on clay, I would say raz is slightly better.
 
I wonder what has changed from pre-Monte Carlo to today, that is, after two rounds played by the Spaniard.

Were these two victories with Cerundolo and Altmaier needed to affirm that Alcaraz on clay and in view of Roland Garros starts ahead of everyone in the hierarchies?

Someone lacks balance of judgment and is too subject to easy enthusiasm or depression (after each early defeat of Djokovic the time has come to retire).
 
Alcaraz is currently +125 odds winning Roland garros. Almost even money.

Only these guys won Roland garros back to back in open era.

Jan Kodes
Borg
Lendl
Courier
Bruguera
Kuerten
Nadal

If alcaraz wins this year , he would be barely 22.
 
nolefam_2024 said:
Alcaraz is currently +125 odds winning Roland garros. Almost even money.

Only these guys won Roland garros back to back in open era.

Jan Kodes
Borg
Lendl
Courier
Bruguera
Kuerten
Nadal

If alcaraz wins this year , he would be barely 22.
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I think I'm correct in saying that if he wins both the French Open and Wimbledon this year, he'd be the first make singles player to win multiple back to back majors since Federer (2006-2007)?

Certainly the first to win back to back channel slams since Borg.

It's a big ask but at the same time it's Alcaraz.
 
Hood_Man said:
I think I'm correct in saying that if he wins both the French Open and Wimbledon this year, he'd be the first make singles player to win multiple back to back majors since Federer (2006-2007)?

Certainly the first to win back to back channel slams since Borg.

It's a big ask but at the same time it's Alcaraz.
Click to expand...
I still find it strange he has more Wimbledons than clay. But he wins 3rd in a row and I would stop posting on it.
 
gamelovergold said:
French open is open field now. Alcaraz is not nadal who was totally dominant on clay.
If he wins FO 25 than it is almost done
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Odds don't say this is open field or as open as you are making it to be.

There is just raz and sinner who combined have 70% chance to win.
Raz 45%
Sinner 25%

Rest combined 30%..

It's not that open.
 
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