Alcaraz generational talent : will win 4+ Roland Garros

This is another one of those career tests, backing up the RG win last year. I think that is a big ticket item for him, but I honestly think winning Wimby again for the hat trick is MUCH bigger for his bid to be in the ATG list. Both would be down right incredible.

Looking at rounding things out, another USO , or finally the AO would help define him as an all-court and surface player.
 
ChaelAZ said:
This is another one of those career tests, backing up the RG win last year. I think that is a big ticket item for him, but I honestly think winning Wimby again for the hat trick is MUCH bigger for his bid to be in the ATG list. Both would be down right incredible.

Looking at rounding things out, another USO , or finally the AO would help define him as an all-court and surface player.
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He has tried to adjust his serve this year and till now has not worked well. Last year he got to the Wimbledon final and served brilliantly.
 
nolefam_2024 said:
Odds don't say this is open field or as open as you are making it to be.

There is just raz and sinner who combined have 70% chance to win.
Raz 45%
Sinner 25%

Rest combined 30%..

It's not that open.
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Id say its wide open behind the top2, with Djoker as a Joker. But top2 are giant favourites.

If Sincaraz should fail, you have some interesting bets, if you like to gamble...
 
nolefam_2024 said:
He has tried to adjust his serve this year and till now has not worked well. Last year he got to the Wimbledon final and served brilliantly.
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His serve was a great off-season improvement. I like he has been able to hit speeds more consistently, but I think he is definitely hitting spots better. Haven't looked at stats for the year compared to previous years, but assume he will get a few percentage bumps there over time.

The FH is a work in progress, or a bit of regress from what I am seeing. The change has him spraying a lot more, but I think that is again a confidence thing and will suss out quick.

I think one of my favorite parts of his play is how accomplished he is at closing the net, and again, not having looked at stats, I think he is trying to do that more this year with a lot more success. Definitely was part of his strategy for MC.

All of that will build for grass too, and probably more so.
 
Jonas78 said:
Fonseca at 40/1 or Fils at 75/1 :unsure:
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Yes that makes sense. Fonseca is just 18. He is going to play challengers on clay just to get reps. I don't think he is winning rg this year or next 2.

He won 250 which is great for his age.

Fils 7 bo5 looks difficult.

Raz has around 3/4 year period where he practically is the best player on this surface I think before Fonseca can challenge. Remember raz himself was not ready in 2023 and lost to nole. If raz won his first in 2024 after turning 21, Fonseca might take till he is 21 at least if not more.
 
nolefam_2024 said:
Yes that makes sense. Fonseca is just 18. He is going to play challengers on clay just to get reps. I don't think he is winning rg this year or next 2.

He won 250 which is great for his age.

Fils 7 bo5 looks difficult.

Raz has around 3/4 year period where he practically is the best player on this surface I think before Fonseca can challenge. Remember raz himself was not ready in 2023 and lost to nole. If raz won his first in 2024 after turning 21, Fonseca might take till he is 21 at least if not more.
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Yeah its a long shot, but if Alcaraz should fail, we might be up for a surprise winner. Sinner is inconsistent on clay, and with current slam winning history, i wouldnt bet on Zverev/Tsitsipas. Probably stupid to bet on anyone but Carlo lol.
 
Can’t give alcaraz those types of odds when he’s dropping sets left and right and to gassed players. Heck I’ll probably take Djoker and sinner and even maybe even Fils over alcaraz at the moment to win RG
 
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ChaelAZ said:
This is another one of those career tests, backing up the RG win last year. I think that is a big ticket item for him, but I honestly think winning Wimby again for the hat trick is MUCH bigger for his bid to be in the ATG list. Both would be down right incredible.

Looking at rounding things out, another USO , or finally the AO would help define him as an all-court and surface player.
Click to expand...
From a TTW perspective I'd say you're right lol. We all know how this place works - to gain TTW street cred, wins against big three are mandatory otherwise you will be labelled a weak era opportunist losing to geriatrics. Because of that any future slams won at FO or AO will be rightfully morally stripped from Alcaraz - he might as well work on his Wimby and USO resume so that he pleases the best critics of them all.
 
Clay lover said:
From a TTW perspective I'd say you're right lol. We all know how this place works - to gain TTW street cred, wins against big three are mandatory otherwise you will be labelled a weak era opportunist losing to geriatrics. Because of that any future slams won at FO or AO will be rightfully morally stripped from Alcaraz - he might as well work on his Wimby and USO resume so that he pleases the best critics.
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There is a problem in tennis.

There are tiers as atg which require 6 slams yet the big 3 are at 20+

So is becoming atg enough in tennis today. This is some thing people need to decide on first. Do you care if someone wins JUST 6 slams in their career anymore. It's a big and not talked enough topic.

6 will be done soon. Then what. Will these guys be respected ? I don't think so. 6 is not even 1/3 of 20.
 
nolefam_2024 said:
There is a problem in tennis.

There are tiers as atg which require 6 slams yet the big 3 are at 20+

So is becoming atg enough in tennis today. This is some thing people need to decide on first. Do you care if someone wins JUST 6 slams in their career anymore. It's a big and not talked enough topic.

6 will be done soon. Then what. Will these guys be respected ? I don't think so. 6 is not even 1/3 of 20.
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I'd like to believe it's the fans' fault for having those expectations but I generally agree that the big three have warped the average expectation of a fan due to the skew from the irrational ones.

I tend to just ignore those fans and believe what I want to believe though, as how I interact with the sport is my own business. I also believe most players but only the most insecure don't really care about what others think and take slams one match and one slam at a time as well.
 
Clay lover said:
I'd like to believe it's the fans' fault for having those expectations but I generally agree that the big three have warped the average expectation of a fan due to the skew from the irrational ones.

I tend to just ignore those fans and believe what I want to believe though, as how I interact with the sport is my own business. I also believe most players but only the most insecure don't really care about what others think and take slams one match and and one slam at a time as well.
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I think more than these alcaraz and sinner guys, the past players are massively disserviced. They didn't prioritize slams only.

Now sinner and raz will likely both go double digit by end of their careers likely surpassing pete. And the 6 slams guys will be forgotten.
 
Hood_Man said:
I think I'm correct in saying that if he wins both the French Open and Wimbledon this year, he'd be the first make singles player to win multiple back to back majors since Federer (2006-2007)?

Certainly the first to win back to back channel slams since Borg.

It's a big ask but at the same time it's Alcaraz.
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And his biggest rival is Sinner, who has yet to reach a final in any of those tournaments.
Alcaraz has a great opportunity to continue winning titles there.
:D
 
Alcaraz has just started 2025 clay season but in MC he won 62.8% of the games played. Including a berserk QF vs Fils.

nolefam_2024

Post in thread 'ATGs and 60% years , including streaks'

Looking at clay, there are 51 player's seasons who had 60+ game win % on clay since 1990. This is 18 more than on HC.
Coincidentally there are 17 player's seasons with game % between 60 and 60.99. So removing those we get 34 almost like on HC.

Taking minimum of 10 matches as even Nadal has had only 10 matches in COVID 20.

PlayerYearGame Won %Matches played
Courier199262.2619
Courier199364.3113
Bruguera199361.2353
...
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In last 30 years, only Nadal, Courier, Coria and Djokovic won above 63% in a year on clay, lets see if Alcaraz can match it.
 
Alcaraz win loss today on CC
86-18 (20-2 in last 52 weeks)

Nadal at same age
148-14
Won 14 RG

Djokovic
62-24
Won 3 RG

Sinner
43-20

Federer
39-26
Won 1 RG

Raz is distinctly better than Djokovic who won 3 and distinctly worse than Nadal.

How many RG titles he wins ?
 
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