Alcaraz Hype
- Thread starter James P
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Nadal - GOAT
Hall of Fame
True. I so remember Federer was like unstoppable then. He was unbeaten in grand slam finals until 2006 RG. The way Nadal handled the pressure at such a young age is unbelievable and super heroic. He beat Federer in 5 slam finals between 2006-2009.
If not for Nadal he would have probably raced to 20 grand slams by 2009 itself.
While Alcaraz will most likely not achieve such heights, it would be great if he could torment Novak in a similar fashion.
The Big Foe fan
Hall of Fame
Nadal is just a better tennis player, accept and move on.
dking68
Legend
Nadal was way way better
dking68
Legend
Nadal defeated a prime federer at age 17, and Alcaraz on the other hand cannot beat an aging Nadal
mike danny
Bionic Poster
Overcoming prime Fed was one of Nadal's greatest feats. More impressive than overcoming Djokovic, IMO.
Overall, Nadal has NOT overcome Djokovic, off a clay court as Novak leads into their H-H, Weeks and YE at #1 which are accomplishments much more than Rafa's 1 slam advantage.
Nadal - GOAT
Hall of Fame
100% agree. He overcame Novak in 2012-14 by when he had experience and confidence from a lot of success.
When he faced prime fed, he was a newbie and very much the underdog. Nadal really shocked everyone and I still remember how Fed fans just couldn't accept the 2008-09 losses.
mike danny
Bionic Poster
Well, I was more impressed by him overcoming Fed because Fed actually gave everything he had in those Wimb and AO finals that he lost. Novak wasn't anywhere near as good in the USO 2013 F for example so beating him there wasn't as impressive as beating a well-playing Fed.
Topspin_80
Hall of Fame
I hope he wins, but if he does he'd be 32 days shy of turning 19.
Whereas Nadal was 47 days shy of turning 19 when he won Monte Carlo 2005.
Nadal was 15 days younger.
But if you want to compare him to Federer, or Djokovic, he is ahead of them.
Nadal - GOAT
Hall of Fame
Ah ok. That's right Novak wasn't at his best in 2013F.
But I think he was very good in 2013 SF RG. He was a break up in the 5th.
Also before 2012 RG Final, he was on a winning streak against Nadal. Many expected Rafa to lose in 2012 RG F.
So I think the 3 victories in 2012-13 were really a great achievement and crucial to stopping Novak. Roger couldn't do that as he lost back to back Wimbledon finals to Novak in 2014 and 2015 and then also the USO F in 2015.
So the way I see it, Rafa put the breaks on both Prime Roger and prime Novak.
Aabye5
G.O.A.T.
The hype train is out of the station and on it's way past the first two stations. Still, he's just made the semis at IW and in Miami, so the hype has some steam.
There was a lot of expectation for the New Balls Generation, because of what Safin had done in the USO final, because people were looking for new blood, etc. Two or three shined brightest - including Fed.
There was a lot of expectation for the New Balls Generation, because of what Safin had done in the USO final, because people were looking for new blood, etc. Two or three shined brightest - including Fed.
Nostradamus
Bionic Poster
Alcarez will win 12 french opens, he's also very humble
mike danny
Bionic Poster
I don't think that many believed Rafa would have lost at 2012 RG. He was so dominant during the clay court season overall and didn't srop a set to Novak at MC and Rome. And he was well on his way to straight-setting Novak at RG too if not for the muddy conditions.
As for Fed not putting the brakes on prime Novak, well yeah, Fed was in his mid 30's at that point. Nadal was in his mid to late 20's. Big difference.
I think the Alcaraz hype feels bigger than the Nadal hype because of:
1_ Social media. So many posts and retweets and highlight reels
2_ desperation for a new champ. It's been 20 years nearly since a genuine great great player comes through.
Nadal had a lot of hype even though there was no social media. This guy was doing amazing things at 16. Alcaraz is not as good as Nadal, but I've always maintained that counter=punchers peak earlier than attacking players, and Alcaraz certainly likes to attack. He already looks so comfortable slicing/volleying/stepping in and attacking the net. Djokovic peaked much later but ended up being a superior player to Nadal so it's fine for Rafa to be the benchmark for teen prodigies.
And Gasquet had A LOT of hype too. He beat Fed at 17 or 18 at a clay masters, can't remember exactly. But one thing that saddens me about Gasquet is he lost a lot of the aggression and flair he played with when he was young. He used to really go after his forehand and attack the points more (I guess a lot of teens do), but yeah ,Gasquet and Rafa were nearly on equal footing for a while on those early days when both were playing the WTF's in shanghai etc.
1_ Social media. So many posts and retweets and highlight reels
2_ desperation for a new champ. It's been 20 years nearly since a genuine great great player comes through.
Nadal had a lot of hype even though there was no social media. This guy was doing amazing things at 16. Alcaraz is not as good as Nadal, but I've always maintained that counter=punchers peak earlier than attacking players, and Alcaraz certainly likes to attack. He already looks so comfortable slicing/volleying/stepping in and attacking the net. Djokovic peaked much later but ended up being a superior player to Nadal so it's fine for Rafa to be the benchmark for teen prodigies.
And Gasquet had A LOT of hype too. He beat Fed at 17 or 18 at a clay masters, can't remember exactly. But one thing that saddens me about Gasquet is he lost a lot of the aggression and flair he played with when he was young. He used to really go after his forehand and attack the points more (I guess a lot of teens do), but yeah ,Gasquet and Rafa were nearly on equal footing for a while on those early days when both were playing the WTF's in shanghai etc.
mike danny
Bionic Poster
LOL no.
James P
G.O.A.T.
I actually think you are incredibly correct about #2. There's a palpable desperation to get to a new heir apparent to the Big 3 era. People wouldn't know how to handle a WTA-style, wide open ATP.
Nadal - GOAT
Hall of Fame
Ah yes.. I think I got confused with 2011 RG. That was when Novak was in prime form and had beaten Nadal in clay season. Roger took out Novak at FO and Nadal himself once said that he was lucky to avoid Novak in FO 2011.
Regarding Fed, yes he was in his 30s so that played against him. But still I feel he should have atleast won 1 of the 2 Wimbledon finals then. (And also the 2019 ofcourse). I feel Novak just got to his head.
mike danny
Bionic Poster
He wasn't supposed to win any of those 2 Wimb finals. Novak was just better in them.
ghostofMecir
Legend
It’s also based on results—he’s 16-2 on the year and hasn’t been beaten easily or soundly outplayed once as an 18 years old. This basically never happens unless one of a handful of greats. He’s going to have to solidify this streak at some slams this year, though, and I can see him doing it.
I'm going to push back a bit here and say Gasquet was way behind Alcaraz at the same age in terms of what he had done.
The year Gasman turned 19 he won 1 title (Nottingham, defeated #61, 274, 37, 30, #40 max Mirny in final).
- Had a great Monte Carlo run (beat Davydenko #15, Fed #1, and pushed rafa in a close 3 sets semi off the back of 2 challenger titles.
- Didn't crack an Elo of 2000 til after his 119th birthday.
He basically had a great week. The rest of his year he only beat 2 top 20 guys (Hbarty #18, and Ljubicic #19) and went 31-11. We saw his ceiling but his range was/is wide.
Alcaraz is 16-2 and it just turned to APRIL. In those 16 wins, he's only dropped a set in 3 of them. The guy is dominating, already 5 top-20 wins (Berrettini #6, RBA #15 SMOKED, #12 Norrie, #14 Schwartzman, #5 Tsitsipas, . Elo already about to cross 2100. The two matches he lost (Berrettini in 5, Nadal in 3) where very close and he had his chances. He's basically been very very hard to stop.
At the same age, Nadal's elo was only MARGINALLY above Alcaraz. Alcaraz is actually tracking remarkably close to nadal, and better than the other big 3/nextgen guys.
This is from last week, so I expect it to be higher when updated in a day or two.
What's more, Gasquet always had clear limitations in his game with his :
forehand (I actually think his early forehand was technically a lot better, but it still wasn't great).
movement. No where near Alcaraz who is close to Rafa
Court craft. Alcaraz has the drop shot, the volley, the slice. You can see he actually has a really good grasp of nearly every facet, which is freakin ridiculous to be frank.
clayqueen
Talk Tennis Guru
Also there was some reluctance to accept that anyone was as good as or better than Roger so they were holding back on the Rafa hype and Rafa had to keep proving himself time and time again because they didn't want the Federer bubble to burst.
clayqueen
Talk Tennis Guru
At the same time, Alcaraz hasn't swept anyone off the court yet. Tsitsipas is the only top player he has beaten granted he hasn't played many of them much. He is 0:1 against Medvedev, 0:2 against Sasha, 2:0 vs Tsitsipas, 0:2 vs Nadal and yet to play Djokovic.
Aabye5
G.O.A.T.
I'm going to push back a bit here and say Gasquet was way behind Alcaraz at the same age in terms of what he had done.
The year Gasman turned 19 he won 1 title (Nottingham, defeated #61, 274, 37, 30, #40 max Mirny in final).
- Had a great Monte Carlo run (beat Davydenko #15, Fed #1, and pushed rafa in a close 3 sets semi off the back of 2 challenger titles.
- Didn't crack an Elo of 2000 til after his 119th birthday.
He basically had a great week. The rest of his year he only beat 2 top 20 guys (Hbarty #18, and Ljubicic #19) and went 31-11. We saw his ceiling but his range was/is wide.
Alcaraz is 16-2 and it just turned to APRIL. In those 16 wins, he's only dropped a set in 3 of them. The guy is dominating, already 5 top-20 wins (Berrettini #6, RBA #15 SMOKED, #12 Norrie, #14 Schwartzman, #5 Tsitsipas, . Elo already about to cross 2100. The two matches he lost (Berrettini in 5, Nadal in 3) where very close and he had his chances. He's basically been very very hard to stop.
At the same age, Nadal's elo was only MARGINALLY above Alcaraz. Alcaraz is actually tracking remarkably close to nadal, and better than the other big 3/nextgen guys.
This is from last week, so I expect it to be higher when updated in a day or two.
What's more, Gasquet always had clear limitations in his game with his :
forehand (I actually think his early forehand was technically a lot better, but it still wasn't great).
movement. No where near Alcaraz who is close to Rafa
Court craft. Alcaraz has the drop shot, the volley, the slice. You can see he actually has a really good grasp of nearly every facet, which is freakin ridiculous to be frank.
Are there any Spaniards with poor movement on the ATP? Maybe PCB is the worst?
clayqueen
Talk Tennis Guru
It is annoying though to listen to commentators saying Alcaraz is even better than Nadal and Djoovic were at this stage. That is simply not true and casual tennis fans will take it as gospel truth.
ghostofMecir
Legend
Depends how one looks at it. Yes, maybe not wins over these players, but his dominance ratio is at 1.31 which is ridiculous for an 18 year old because 18 year olds don’t win so easily AND when they lose, they often get beaten badly, but nobody can beat this guy badly because of how good he is at so many parts of the game. For full seasons of data, only Nadal has had a higher one dominance ratio at this age. His current ELO suggests he’s playing like a top 5 player.
TennisFan3
Talk Tennis Guru
The comparison is NOT relevant. Everyone develops differently. Fed became a winning machine later in his career. Novak became Novak 2.0 in 2011.
Nadal was an early bloomer in contrast. But even though Novak started much later, he already exceeded Nadal.
It may be the Alcatraz has already peaked or won't improve as much as these guys did. Having a multi slam winner is super rare.
There are SO MANY players who show promise but then never amount to anything.
The hype on Alcatraz is UNREAL. For him to be a dominant #1 and win multiple slams - everything will need to go right, which is hard.
To answer your question: There is more hype on Alcatraz because Tennis is crying out for a new champion what with 34/35/36 yr olds dominating the sport.
USMC-615
Hall of Fame
Future ratings and viewership prob drives that aspect more than anything else. Everybody's waiting on 'the new kid in town.' But the kid is damn good.
ghostofMecir
Legend
Alcaraz turns 19 in May '22. If by the end of this year, Alcaraz has achieved even half of what Rafa achieved at the end of the year he turned 19, he'll deserve all the hype he gets.
Rafa's titles by December 2005
Lol you’re so pressed someone else is getting some shine. It‘s OK for other players to get some attention. They're not going to subtract from Nadal’s wins.
Aabye5
G.O.A.T.
You mean...life before Fed?
UnderratedSlam
G.O.A.T.
He won two events aged 18, which is 2 more than practically all the NextGen big names won when they were 18.
And two Sunshine Double semis, one of which might become a trophy.
So if some of these NextGenners were hyped, why not hype this guy too...
clayqueen
Talk Tennis Guru
Rafa owned Djokovic until his frequent injury-fillied stop, start, stop, start began in 2012.
clayqueen
Talk Tennis Guru
I would only hold it against him if despite that he is still being hyped up as better than Nadal was at this stage.
clayqueen
Talk Tennis Guru
They earned it first.
TopspintheTerrible
Hall of Fame
I don’t think it’s ridiculous to compare him to young Joker. Imo he’s better than Fed was at 18. Nadal is prob a step too far atm.
However, that does not mean he will end up with a similar career as the Big 3. He most likely will not.
Nate7-5
Hall of Fame
Alcaraz is the next Dimitrov
Should we start calling him Baby Nadal then? Lol
clayqueen
Talk Tennis Guru
TopspintheTerrible
Hall of Fame
Alcaraz is way more aggressive than Nadal. Other than speed, I don’t see a ton of similarities. He’s really more of a hybrid of Fed & Joker.
duaneeo
Legend
Nadal starting getting hyped after he helped Spain win Davis Cup at the end of 2004. It went more into overdrive after he made the 2005 Miami final and took Federer to 5 sets. Rafa proved weeks later that all the hype was legit when he dominated the clay season and never looked back.
I think the hype Alcaraz is getting is typical of what's been given to many young players over the last decade. Perhaps it's more over-the-top because of the desperation fans have for men's tennis to have a real breakout star.
I think the hype Alcaraz is getting is typical of what's been given to many young players over the last decade. Perhaps it's more over-the-top because of the desperation fans have for men's tennis to have a real breakout star.
Nate7-5
Hall of Fame
Im mostly going with the Spanish and good on clay angle - and playing off of people calling Dmitrov "Baby Fed."
TopspintheTerrible
Hall of Fame
Grigor was a false prophet. Alcaraz will carry on the legacy of Idemo & Chum Jetze with honor.
CHillTennis
Hall of Fame
The one that still boggles my mind is Nick Kyrgios.
People have been hyping this guy for almost 10 years and he still hasn't made a grand slam final yet.
He also gets the same amount of press coverage as the Big 3.
People have been hyping this guy for almost 10 years and he still hasn't made a grand slam final yet.
He also gets the same amount of press coverage as the Big 3.
UnderratedSlam
G.O.A.T.
Corrected.
Waiting for the trolls to tell you he'd won AO in doubles.
The fact that he hasn't reached a slam QF in seven years is the even bigger point to make. (I mean in singles, trolls...)
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The Blond Blur
G.O.A.T.
The kid is really good and a ton of fun to watch, but I don’t expect him to have a Big 3 like career. I don’t expect we’ll see that type of career happening for a long time. He has a moar complete game than all the Next Gen players and seems to have way moar focus on tennis than they do.
As for the hype he’s getting, a lot of that is due to the RAFA comparisons because he’s a fellow Spaniard. But for context RAFA beat Moya and the then defending RG champ Costa at just 16 years old. He beat Peakerer at 17 and a year later had the same Peakerer down 2-0 before he got screwed on a horrendous line call that would have brought up triple BP. And had the F taken place after 07 it actually would have been a straight sets win.
I say all that to say this, he’s probably the best talent/prospect we’ve seen in the last 3 generations of players (Lost Gen, Next Gen, and now Diamond Gen). He’s not a Big 3 talent, but IMO he is an actual ATG level talent.
As for the hype he’s getting, a lot of that is due to the RAFA comparisons because he’s a fellow Spaniard. But for context RAFA beat Moya and the then defending RG champ Costa at just 16 years old. He beat Peakerer at 17 and a year later had the same Peakerer down 2-0 before he got screwed on a horrendous line call that would have brought up triple BP. And had the F taken place after 07 it actually would have been a straight sets win.
I say all that to say this, he’s probably the best talent/prospect we’ve seen in the last 3 generations of players (Lost Gen, Next Gen, and now Diamond Gen). He’s not a Big 3 talent, but IMO he is an actual ATG level talent.
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