Alcaraz Hype

[Chanwan]

-Alcaraz speed? Faster than Novak, maybe Rafa speed. Hard to compare. I'd say pure line speed Rafa and Alcaraz are better than Djokovic, but Djokovic's flexibility and end-range control makes them all really close. Gun to the head on speed rank I go: Peak Rafa, Alcaraz, Peak Djokovic.

- Ability to return defense to offense? This is where Rafa and Novak shine. Alcaraz is behind in this category for me. Rafa and Novak at end-range are the best of all-time. Alcaraz is good, great even, but Djokodal are freaks in this category. Novak's sliding backhand is the BOAT, Rafa's running forehand is probably the BOAT. They weren't too shabby on their weaker sides either.

- Shot tolerance? Peak Djokodal still way ahead. Alcaraz is always looking to attack. A young Novak was similar actually, way more trigger-happy on the forehand. For now, he's behind in shot tolerance.

- Return-of-serve. He's doing really well, but still about 2% less on 1st and 2nd return points won, but he is really high up there.

But there are categories where I think Alcaraz is ahead:

- volleys. Unbelievable how good this kid's hands are. Rafa's court awareness and ability to close the net is better, but for pure hands I put Alcaraz first.
- Slice. Looks technically so sound and comfortably slicing, which again, I'm just blown away but considering he is 18 with a 2HBH...Just doesn't make sense.
- Drop shot. Hands down this is almost his trademark these days. The forehand dropper he tried 46 times in the sunshine double, and won 41 so far.
- lob. The guy's lob has been off the charts recently. Especially off the backhand.

He's still a fair way off:

- Peak Djoker/Rafa serve.
- Peak Djoker return.
- Peak Rafa weight of shot.
- Peak Djokodal consistency and ability to just not miss point after point. AKA 2012 AO final.

There are so many positive signs with this kid though. He's hitting his first-serve in the mid 130's...I still think he needs to become a spot-server like Fed with his height, if he wants to really get his serve points won % higher. He has such a good +1 ability off both wings that he just needs to hit his spots and take advantage of the first ball as fed did so well (probably the BOAT at serve +1).
Comes forward a lot and it's exciting to wonder how good his net game can get in the next 5+ years.
Drop shots, lobs, sneaking, slicing. usually having this many shots in the toolbelt delays development because young players pick the wrong shot at the wrong time, but he seems to read the game so well and play the right shot so often. We will see how this develops.

You didn't disappoint I'll respond to each, but mostly I just agree

1) speed, I might be wrong, but I still think he's a full level below peak Rafa in this respect. He's fast, no doubt about it and one of the fastest on tour right now, but peak Rafa and peak Djoko + stretch has him beat here imo
2) agree completely on defense to offense
3) -II- on shot tolerance
4) RoS. The eye test puts him well behind Novak here for me. Rafa, fairly close. I can't access the leaderboard for whatever reason right now, but have a look at this and this. Those are extremely promising numbers.

- volleys. Not ready to put him over Rafa just yet, but he sure has the right tools, the right feel and the right mindset. He just might be ahead already.
- slice, agree
- drop shot. Oh yes, that's a moneyshot and will be even better on clay
- mury goat like lobs

"usually having this many shots in the toolbelt delays development because young players pick the wrong shot at the wrong time, but he seems to read the game so well and play the right shot so often."
Agree

"I still think he needs to become a spot-server like Fed with his height, if he wants to really get his serve points won % higher. He has such a good +1 ability off both wings that he just needs to hit his spots and take advantage of the first ball as fed did so well (probably the BOAT at serve +1)."
agree

 

[mike danny]

IMO it's comparable to 2017-18 Zverev. People forget how quickly he became a top player and started winning big titles.

Alcaraz already better in slams than Zverev of back then.

 

[Chanwan]

Very few players ever (yes, ever) have played 20 consecutive matches at the level Alcaraz just has. He’s 18 going on 19 and has not been soundly beaten yet while he’s given out plenty of whippings. It’s pretty much unheard of. And it’s because he doesn’t have any real weaknesses other than a serve that doesn’t have good placement, but at least produces power.

Something that amazed me this Miami Open was his winning % on 1st serve DESPITE not having a lot of aces/unreturneds/one-two combos. This is something I’ve only see from Rafito himself even if Alcaraz does hit a bigger 1st serve. Once he learns to place the serve better, get some more free points…it looks like nightmare territory for most opponents.

75% 78%, 79%, 74%, 78%, 83% of first serve points won with not many easy points and on a slow hard court. That looks like peak Rafito behavior.

I think you're absolutely spot on here, good catch
Something that amazed me this Miami Open was his winning % on 1st serve DESPITE not having a lot of aces/unreturneds/one-two combos. This is something I’ve only see from Rafito himself even if Alcaraz does hit a bigger 1st serve. Once he learns to place the serve better, get some more free points…it looks like nightmare territory for most opponents.

75% 78%, 79%, 74%, 78%, 83% of first serve points won with not many easy points and on a slow hard court. That looks like peak Rafito behavior.

 

[BeatlesFan]

Commentators are beginning to say Alcaraz is better than Rafa & Novak at the same age. They can’t have been watching tennis then because he is nowhere near the 18 year old Rafa.

Rafa won 2 Masters at the age of 18 and a slam days after he turned 19. Alcaraz turns 19 in May. Let’s see what happens.

He's nowhere near Chang, Wilander, Becker or Borg, all of whom had won a slam by age 18. Boris had won 2 Wimbledon titles when he was Carlos's age.

To answer the OP's question, the most hyped 17 year old player was Agassi, at least in the States. He was a sensation.

 

[Chanwan]

He's nowhere near Chang, Wilander, Becker or Borg, all of whom had won a slam by age 18. Boris had won 2 Wimbledon titles when he was Carlos's age.

To answer the OP's question, the most hyped 17 year old player was Agassi, at least in the States. He was a sensation.

What's your take on Alcaraz? Flash in a pan or the real deal?

 

[DSH]

100% agree. He overcame Novak in 2012-14 by when he had experience and confidence from a lot of success.

When he faced prime fed, he was a newbie and very much the underdog. Nadal really shocked everyone and I still remember how Fed fans just couldn't accept the 2008-09 losses.

Believe me, it's been so long and they still carry that resentment.

 

[DSH]

Those stats would be good enough to be World No. 1 as well in a lot of other years
1 Slam & 4 Masters!

Certainly between 1998 and 2003 (only in 1999 was there someone who could win two Major titles in the same season).

 

[DSH]

This dude will win 28 majors. you heard it here first. you can tell me i am right later in time 

Nostradamus, you will always be the best seer on the forum.
Your predictions never fail!

 

[Chanwan]

I am on holiday and so on my phone so briefly: He is promising but has a long way to go to reach Djokovic or Nadal levels. Very good core groundstroke game. Some weaknesses in serve, return, shot tolerance, and over hitting.

Enjoy your holiday. I agree on all counts (though his return is pretty good). But have a look at his return stats -> those speaks volumes about his overall ground game. As does his hold percentage given his serve weakness. He's 86-35 in 2022 - that's great by even Djokodal standards.