Alcaraz is 3-0 against Sinner this year and has won 5 of the last 7 matches

Winner Sinner said:
Since I don't want to indulge the ravings of a certain user (I just signed up and someone already claims to label me in a certain way out of pure prejudice) even though there is no real need (it's a matter of reiterating the obvious) as a Sinner fan who still tries to analyze things with coherence and objectivity, I would like to express my impressions on the Beijing match, breaking several lances in favor of Alcaraz. First of all, the surface has nothing to do with it, it's useless to stay here and dissect the speed of the Beijing surface and how it could have been more favorable to the Spaniard. Sinner turned his career around on these courts last year, his game marries perfectly with the Beijing courts. Small aside, in the Sinneraz rivalry there are no surfaces that are too comfortable in favor of one over the other and vice versa, or rather, both can beat their rival everywhere regardless of speed, bounce and so on, something that has already been demonstrated several times considering that Alcaraz beat Sinner 5 times on the hard surface that on paper should favor Sinner more, while Sinner in the only match between the two on grass had the upper hand, clay at the moment 1-1 and ball in the center. So the theory in this case can go to hell. And I'm not saying that on every surface it's 50-50, but rather that we are not in the least in terms of comfort zone at the levels of Fedal or even Nadovic. Having said this and returning to the match in Beijing, I will never say that Alcaraz had full control over Sinner, this cannot be when Sinner himself between the second and third set was on several occasions very close to turning the match definitively in his favor, however the superiority in the overall match of Alcaraz was evident. Superiority that had never been felt in the two previous seasonal challenges, because if it is true that in this Beijing final the Spaniard never managed to definitively escape (except obviously in the decisive tiebreak) it is equally true that the slaps that Sinner reserved for Alcaraz in the respective first sets of the semi-finals of IW and RG in this case were absolutely not seen, precisely because there was never a single moment where the Italian managed to dominate the Spaniard on the level of play, not even when he recovered in the first set from 5-2 down did I have this perception. Simply Alcaraz was stronger and fully deserved to win, but he was stronger not only in the final but also in the tournament as a whole, in fact in the end despite a seasonal h2h situation increasingly compromised (but not completely) I still welcomed the verdict positively precisely because on the eve of the final, following an unmistakable trend due to the path in the tournament, I would have expected Sinner to come out defeated in an even more crushing way in terms of the score. And please note that I am a firm denier of the theory "winner of the match = stronger player on that particular day", so my judgment is not based on results but is based on the objectivity of the forces on the field. Sinner could have won this final and I would have said the exact same thing (Alcaraz was stronger), just as, always by the way that I am not a fan with slices of ham lined over my eyes, I have no problem whatsoever in admitting that in the challenge between Sinner and Djokovic in the last Davis Cup, despite the final result that day the strongest was indisputably the Serb, in the series, reasoning by absurdity, if that day that match had been replayed 10 times at least 7 times, for what were the real values of strength at that moment, the result would have smiled on Djokovic.
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You're back already?
 
I also just realised that most of the fast indoor HC tournaments won't be that important for Alcaraz except Paris, the Finals and possibly Rotterdam going forward. He will collect his points on outdoor courts mostly I feel. What do you think?
 
Rafa4LifeEver said:
They've played far too less, and I don't think there is a matchup issue for Sinner. If anything, Alcaraz has a matchup issue & mental lapse problem against Sinner.
He keeps making life difficult for himself against the Italian.
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This is basically confessing that Alcaraz is a significantly better player than Sinner. Cause he's still winning the majority of the matches at 21 (vs Sinner who is 23) despite having a match-up issue. Correct?
 
Yep, Carlitos leads the H2H, generally, and for this year. But man, what utter bulesh*te-kid wins Beijing, and this babble starts on how the ball bounces/how the court plays, spouted as though it's some great insight. Carlitos won the title, end of topic. Jannik was playing for the same title-would an explanation of ball bounce / slow courts have arisen then? No. Ergo, when Carlitos wins, these bright sparks run in to impart their deep, deep knowledge, which is meaningless in the scheme of things. We'll see how Carlitos does on faster Courts, if playing well.

Kid can play on all surfaces - he has won a slam on all surfaces and a 500 series title on all surfaces. I'll take these facts over the tosh put forward by some here about how the ball bounces/the court plays. There is no opportunity to win a 1000 masters on grass, otherwise I suspect he would have been a contender for that too.

Fact is, currently at age 21, Carlitos leads the H2H against Jannik and is 3-0 up this year to date. With all the 'hard court/court speed' nonsense bandied about, I'll cast a quick glance at what, in the scheme of things has transpired, to compare results at the same age:

At age 21 ( before 15.08.2022) , Jannik had won the following titles: (2022) Umag; (2021) Antwerp, Sophia. Washington, Melbourne; (2020) Sophia. A total of 6 titles, all except Washington (500) at 250 level. He has defended only Sophia to date.
Jannik currently has 16 titles.

Carlitos at age 21 (he has until 04.05.2025 to add to the tally at age 21) has won: (2024) IW, French Open, Wimbledon, Beijing; (2023) Wimbledon, IW, Madrid, Queens, Barcelona, Buenos Aires; (2022) USO, Madrid, Miami, Barcelona, Rio de Janeiro; (2021) Umag. A total of 16 titles, including 4 GS's / 5 1000 masters. He has defended 4 titles in his career to date - IW,Madrid,Barcelona and Wimbledon.

This year, Jannik has achieved better results-quite superb, and their rivalry takes on a meaningful intensity. I hope and anticipate this will continue. My point is that there are no foregone conclusions as to who will play better on hard courts or anywhere else in their respective careers. I anticipate that these kids will excel on all surfaces and share the titles. Both players are adapting/changing and developing their games. Others are coming up too, and will be in the mix.
 
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Rafa4LifeEver said:
What's their data source?

I'd trust the CPI data way more than these random 3rd party websites.
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Maybe you could show your source and data if you have any. As you can see those are accurate numbers, not subjective views. It was obvious to me, watching the play, that these courts were slow and was difficult to make winners.
 
Windsor2 said:
Of course. Did I say it was impossible? I said it was difficult, and the fact that, in general, the UEs vastly outnumbered winners is showing this.
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Man there is no excuse regarding court surface, Alcaraz hit almost double winners than sinner, It was a quite fast hard court as many pro players said, you could argue sinner wasnt on his best form, but people definetly need to stop saying the court was slow, its definetly not true
 
Windsor2 said:
I said it previously and will said again, bring your own source and data. If not just shut up for ***** sake, you are embarrassing yourself!!
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Unless the website cites the source of their data to measure court pace other than the ace %, which is a very misleading number, I'd say take it with a fistful of salt.

CPI is the true measure of a court being slow, medium or fast. Unfortunately, that data doesn't get released too often. Here in the image, as you can see, Shanghai is listed as fast, with 44.1 CPI. Beijing courts play similar to those in Shanghai & thus, as a logical conclusion, they're fast courts as well.
court-pace-index-2017.jpg
 
Windsor2 said:
you are embarrassing yourself!!
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Talking about embarassment, your data source - the Tennis Abstract, rates Newport - a grass court tournament with slick & low bouncing surface on par with Paris Olympics, played at RG with high bouncing slow Clay court, at 0.90.

Roflmao what a shame!!
 
Rafa4LifeEver said:
Unless the website cites the source of their data to measure court pace other than the ace %, which is a very misleading number, I'd say take it with a fistful of salt.

CPI is the true measure of a court being slow, medium or fast. Unfortunately, that data doesn't get released too often. Here in the image, as you can see, Shanghai is listed as fast, with 44.1 CPI. Beijing courts play similar to those in Shanghai & thus, as a logical conclusion, they're fast courts as well.
court-pace-index-2017.jpg
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This looks outdated (2016-2017) and I can't see Beijing data, just Shanghai. The site I showed early is a reputable site BTW. You can see the data for each year and each tournament. I don't think they are making up staff.
 
Windsor2 said:
This looks outdated (2016-2017) and I can't see Beijing data, just Shanghai. The site I showed early is a reputable site BTW. You can see the data for each year and each tournament. I don't think they are making up staff.
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The site you provided puts Roland Garros a lot of places away from the olympics which was played at the same place with a couple months difference, and also puts many Clay tournaments above decently fast courts, thats the problem when you only count aces to measure court speed, its an horrible way to do It honestly
 
Windsor2 said:
This looks outdated (2016-2017) and I can't see Beijing data, just Shanghai. The site I showed early is a reputable site BTW. You can see the data for each year and each tournament. I don't think they are making up staff.
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It is indeed an outdated data, but its what the situation looks like in tennis. The officials of ATP, WTA & ITF don't release the statistics & data nearly as much as other sports, rendering the data related discussions to be speculative. Talking about the data by tennisAbstract, I can't take them seriously, because they've rated Newport & OG Clay (RG) both at similar levels, which is ridiculously hilarious. Ace % alone can't tell us about a surface being quick or slow.
 
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Tano said:
Alcaraz was a big disappointment in failing to beat the 37-year-old Djokovic on clay.
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Ok and yet beat him back to back at Wimbledon which most consider to be the most important slam of the year and one of Novak's best surfaces. When he beat him in 2023 Novak was still in peak form and had won 3/4 slams that year and that wasn't peak Alcaraz yet that beat him.
 
tennis_pro said:
This is basically confessing that Alcaraz is a significantly better player than Sinner. Cause he's still winning the majority of the matches at 21 (vs Sinner who is 23) despite having a match-up issue. Correct?
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Imo we need to wait , This is Sinner's first year in prime and he hasn't met Carlos on HC in slams , else he would have made annihilated him. Carlos hit his prime one year before Sinner , we gotta wait and see how it pans out.
 
Sinner is good and plays the recipe with the exact ingredients to get the best results of the current game, given the courts, and racquet & strings technology.

Sinner has been unlucky to meet some of the best versions of Alcaraz when they have faced each other. However, they could've met some more times along this 2024 season, and if it hasn't happened is because Carlos has lost before reaching SFs or Fs, because he's got a different game style; one that gives a lot, but also takes a lot.

Sinner looks like a safer bet for those fans that are not so much into tennis, but more into supporting whoever sportsman with highest results. Especially when Carlos's touch is not dialed with the court and with the ball, which is something that for us Carlos fans happens too often. But it's also the price to pay to see him play his marvellous top level which is much beyond typical level in the circuit.
 
Interesting how fast some people jump to conclusions... especially after an ATP500 final. 2 weeks ago Alcaraz was finished and done for good after his USO exit, now he is the future Goat again? Too Funny. As a huge Djokovic fan I have no horse in this Sinneraz race. I feel quite neutral in general. I prefer Alcaraz's game and personality but I don't dislike Sinner. However the H2H means little when I compare two players. Even if Djokovic had a losing H2H against Fedal (which isn't the case but IF), I'd still consider him the Goat because he has more Slams and more weeks/years at number #1.

Alcaraz was mentally stronger in key moments in these last 3 matches, no debate. But Sinner is more regular this year. I mean we can support whoever we want this year but the gap of points isn't even close at this point. Sinner has 9,400, Alcaraz has 6,600. 2,800 points equals 3 Masters1000 or 2 Grand Slam finals. It's a huge gap (albeit the season isn't over yet) if we compare 2024 to some other seasons like 2013, 2016, 2019 and 2022. In 2016 Murray snatched the YE-#1 away from Djokovic in the very last match of the season in London. In 2019 Djokovic lost that YE-#1 for 1 single match against Thiem. In 2022 if we count Wimbledon points, the gap between Alcaraz and Djokovic was like 100 points (knowing he had to skip 2 Slams and half of the Masters because of the covid tyranny).

Unless Alcaraz has a super strong end of season and finishes 100 or 200 points behind Sinner after Turin, I don't think it's fair to question or asterisk Sinner's YE-#1. He was more regular in Slams and Masters in general. His earliest exit of the year is his Wimbledon QF. He didn't lose in early stages of tournaments against guys ranked 80-100 like Monfils Monteiro and Zandschulp. At this point is isn't even sure Alcaraz will finish #2, Zverev is only 400 points behind him and is a better Indoors player...

And quite frankly, I don't think Sinner was anywhere near his best level in those 3 matches this year. In IW we all saw he got injured at 6-1 3-1 and could barely walk the rest of the match. RG Semi was an atrocious match levelwise, I don't know what happened but it was painful to watch. And the Beijing final ended 7-6 in the 3rd, Sinner had break points at 7-6 4-3. Sinner lost sets to Jarry, Etcheverry and Safiullin, I don't think he is half as good as he was in Cincinnati/USO or AO/Rotterdam/Miami. His level dropped massively in China. This match only shows that Alcaraz was mentally stronger but it's not enough for me to say he has the mental edge and will dominate the future matchup and have a better 2025 season. The truth is he is still 2,800 points behind Sinner in the Race. And will have to wait for his 2nd YE-#1, as he had to last year with Djokovic (and would have in 2022 if Djokovic could play AO and USO).
 
Lauren_Girl' said:
Interesting how fast some people jump to conclusions... especially after an ATP500 final. 2 weeks ago Alcaraz was finished and done for good after his USO exit, now he is the future Goat again? Too Funny. As a huge Djokovic fan I have no horse in this Sinneraz race. I feel quite neutral in general. I prefer Alcaraz's game and personality but I don't dislike Sinner. However the H2H means little when I compare two players. Even if Djokovic had a losing H2H against Fedal (which isn't the case but IF), I'd still consider him the Goat because he has more Slams and more weeks/years at number #1.

Alcaraz was mentally stronger in key moments in these last 3 matches, no debate. But Sinner is more regular this year. I mean we can support whoever we want this year but the gap of points isn't even close at this point. Sinner has 9,400, Alcaraz has 6,600. 2,800 points equals 3 Masters1000 or 2 Grand Slam finals. It's a huge gap (albeit the season isn't over yet) if we compare 2024 to some other seasons like 2013, 2016, 2019 and 2022. In 2016 Murray snatched the YE-#1 away from Djokovic in the very last match of the season in London. In 2019 Djokovic lost that YE-#1 for 1 single match against Thiem. In 2022 if we count Wimbledon points, the gap between Alcaraz and Djokovic was like 100 points (knowing he had to skip 2 Slams and half of the Masters because of the covid tyranny).

Unless Alcaraz has a super strong end of season and finishes 100 or 200 points behind Sinner after Turin, I don't think it's fair to question or asterisk Sinner's YE-#1. He was more regular in Slams and Masters in general. His earliest exit of the year is his Wimbledon QF. He didn't lose in early stages of tournaments against guys ranked 80-100 like Monfils Monteiro and Zandschulp. At this point is isn't even sure Alcaraz will finish #2, Zverev is only 400 points behind him and is a better Indoors player...

And quite frankly, I don't think Sinner was anywhere near his best level in those 3 matches this year. In IW we all saw he got injured at 6-1 3-1 and could barely walk the rest of the match. RG Semi was an atrocious match levelwise, I don't know what happened but it was painful to watch. And the Beijing final ended 7-6 in the 3rd, Sinner had break points at 7-6 4-3. Sinner lost sets to Jarry, Etcheverry and Safiullin, I don't think he is half as good as he was in Cincinnati/USO or AO/Rotterdam/Miami. His level dropped massively in China. This match only shows that Alcaraz was mentally stronger but it's not enough for me to say he has the mental edge and will dominate the future matchup and have a better 2025 season. The truth is he is still 2,800 points behind Sinner in the Race. And will have to wait for his 2nd YE-#1, as he had to last year with Djokovic (and would have in 2022 if Djokovic could play AO and USO).
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Rubbish again


2 weeks ago raz wasn't finished. he slaughtered Fritz who was in USOpen final in exho laver cup and won the tournament single handedly.

Level he shown vs Fritz and Shelton was surprisingly goaty but this was exho and we let that go.

Then when matters came to head , sinner has chance to claim he is the bigger fish but he failed very badly.

This was 132 pts to 120 +12 pts difference.

Raz could have thrashed sinner even worse he had 15 bps. Sinner got lucky to get to 3rd set tiebreak

And this has happened many times now. IW RG now Beijing.

500 or any other level doesn't matter. I am sure sinner can't hope to play better than he did last Wednesday if this was a slam per say. But the result was resounding alcaraz win.

Two weeks ago raz single handedly beaten all in exho but level was super high and then he ended sinner on hard courts where sinner won all the titles (except 2). Sinner is proper HC specialist but he couldn't even come close to raz.

So there it is.
 
Raz sneakily got to his 50th win in 2024 without any attention from media.

Davis cup +2
Laver cup +3
Beijing +5
And now Shanghai +2

He has been on quite a run and probably lost just 2 sets along the way. He is coming back massively post USO series failure.
 
I'm just liking the Alcaraz run as too many intellectually challenged people...mostly Sinner fans wouldn't shut up about how Alcaraz is a terrible hard court player and now he's playing fantastic tennis on hard courts.

I think people also forget Alcaraz holds a 5-2 edge over Sinner on hard courts it's not like he hasn't shown he can play on any surface on the past.
 
NeutralFan said:
Imo we need to wait , This is Sinner's first year in prime and he hasn't met Carlos on HC in slams , else he would have made annihilated him. Carlos hit his prime one year before Sinner , we gotta wait and see how it pans out.
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That's pure speculation, I don't even think Sinner is better than Alcaraz on HC despite having one more Slam. 2025 should confirm this.
 
NeutralFan said:
Imo we need to wait , This is Sinner's first year in prime and he hasn't met Carlos on HC in slams , else he would have made annihilated him. Carlos hit his prime one year before Sinner , we gotta wait and see how it pans out.
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Carlos is two years younger And If this is Sinner’s prime then he will be annihilated when Carlos hits his.
 
Rafa4LifeEver said:
What's their data source?

I'd trust the CPI data way more than these random 3rd party websites.
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I think the problem with that data source is it is inherently a ratio, good for comparing speeds of surfaces within the same year, but not great to extrapolate for other years.
For instance, Turin having a TA surface speed of 1.62 means that on a Turin court, players would hit 62% more aces than an average tour level surface that year.
However, take Wimbledon 1998 for instance. It has a TA surface speed of 0.99, meaning that on average, players would hit 1% less aces there than on an average tour level surface. No one sane believes Turin is significantly faster than 90's wimbledon, but it instead tells me that the average court in 1998 was very fast, leading to this skew.
 
Rafa4LifeEver said:
Here in the image, as you can see, Shanghai is listed as fast, with 44.1 CPI. Beijing courts play similar to those in Shanghai & thus, as a logical conclusion, they're fast courts as well.
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what's your source that Beijing courts play similar to those in Shanghai?
Rafa4LifeEver said:
Newport - a grass court tournament with slick & low bouncing surface
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Newport for the past few years has been one of the slower grass courts on the ATP Tour (afaict usually goes something like Halle ~= Stuttgart > Mallorca > Eastbourne ~= Queen's ~= Wimbledon > Den Bosch > Newport). if you look at this graph (https://fogmountaintennis.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/court-speed-ranges.png?w=640) you'll see that grass can vary greatly in its characteristics (as it has historically been described). (funnily enough because of this i think there's a legit case that the pre '75 Grand Slam was more difficult than the '88 onwards Grand Slam)
Rafa4LifeEver said:
Paris Olympics, played at RG with high bouncing slow Clay court, at 0.90.
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played in the middle of the summer rather than spring. higher temperature -> lower air density -> less drag -> plays (and is perceived to be) faster. similar to how high altitude tournaments like Madrid have less air density and so on and so on. CPR formula acknowledges this to some extent (https://www.perfect-tennis.com/tennis-court-surfaces-and-court-speeds/, search for "how is"): CPR scales linearly with increases in ball temperature in degrees Celsius (by a factor of a*c = pace perception constant * temperature coefficient = 150 * 0.003 = 0.45).
TheSlicer said:
thats the problem when you only count aces to measure court speed, its an horrible way to do It honestly
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it's good for taking into account all factors that could affect court speed (as perceived by players and viewers, which is practically more important than the isolated speed as function of surface specifications). CPR is good and fine but then you still have temperature, air pressure, altitude, and ball specifications to think about. ace % is nice (when scaling for server & returner ofc) bc you generally expect (and want) it to be directly related to court speed for a sensible definition of speed
objection_ said:
I think the problem with that data source is it is inherently a ratio, good for comparing speeds of surfaces within the same year, but not great to extrapolate for other years.
For instance, Turin having a TA surface speed of 1.62 means that on a Turin court, players would hit 62% more aces than an average tour level surface that year.
However, take Wimbledon 1998 for instance. It has a TA surface speed of 0.99, meaning that on average, players would hit 1% less aces there than on an average tour level surface. No one sane believes Turin is significantly faster than 90's wimbledon, but it instead tells me that the average court in 1998 was very fast, leading to this skew.
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yeah even within the '90s, RG's TA surface speed was varying wildly and comparing numbers between years didn't really match with expectations (e.g. '96 was 0.70, '92 was 0.82)
THUNDERVOLLEY said:
"Alacraz is going to be the GOAT" cries
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is winning the Grand Slam a necessary but not sufficient condition for GOAThood in your eyes?
 
Sport said:
Is it wrong if I equally support Alcaraz and Sinner despite being Spaniard?

I guess the most "normal" thing is to support the player of your nation. Yeah, probably I lean slightly (very slightly indeed) more toward Carlos for that reason, but overall I've almost zero preference for one or the other. I just enjoy every time they hit the court, as they're both equally spectacular and incredibly talented.

One things is for sure: the present and future of tennis is safe at their hands.
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(y)
 
objection_ said:
I think the problem with that data source is it is inherently a ratio, good for comparing speeds of surfaces within the same year, but not great to extrapolate for other years.
For instance, Turin having a TA surface speed of 1.62 means that on a Turin court, players would hit 62% more aces than an average tour level surface that year.
However, take Wimbledon 1998 for instance. It has a TA surface speed of 0.99, meaning that on average, players would hit 1% less aces there than on an average tour level surface. No one sane believes Turin is significantly faster than 90's wimbledon, but it instead tells me that the average court in 1998 was very fast, leading to this skew.
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Some good points you made there, mate.
 
nolefam_2024 said:
Rubbish again


2 weeks ago raz wasn't finished. he slaughtered Fritz who was in USOpen final in exho laver cup and won the tournament single handedly.

Level he shown vs Fritz and Shelton was surprisingly goaty but this was exho and we let that go.

Then when matters came to head , sinner has chance to claim he is the bigger fish but he failed very badly.

This was 132 pts to 120 +12 pts difference.

Raz could have thrashed sinner even worse he had 15 bps. Sinner got lucky to get to 3rd set tiebreak

And this has happened many times now. IW RG now Beijing.

500 or any other level doesn't matter. I am sure sinner can't hope to play better than he did last Wednesday if this was a slam per say. But the result was resounding alcaraz win.

Two weeks ago raz single handedly beaten all in exho but level was super high and then he ended sinner on hard courts where sinner won all the titles (except 2). Sinner is proper HC specialist but he couldn't even come close to raz.

So there it is.
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What is rubbish? And why "again". Please show some respect. You sound very aggressive and bitter. You are entitled to your opinion but you can't tell other users theirs is rubbish.

All I'm saying is I don't think Sinner is playing his best tennis right now. He lost sets to Safiullin, Jarry and Etcheverry... He struggled against Ledecka and Bu. He isn't in his peak form in China. The Sinner from AO/USO or Miami would have demolished these guys 6-3 6-2. Alcaraz was trashed by Zverev and Botic on HC Slams this year, it's gonna be hard to convince us he would have beaten Sinner had he reached the final in Australia and NYC. Sinner is more consistent in 2024 and this is why he has almost 3,000 additional points in the Race (and 4,000 points in the live Ranking). Yup, Alcaraz dominates the H2H but it's not enough to asterisk Sinner's upcoming YE-#1. The gap in the Race is waaay too large at this point.
 
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