Alcaraz is all gas and no breaks - Will he topple Federer to become the GOAT of Indian Wells?

[Hitman]

While Federer and Djokovic have an equal amount of titles in desert, for me and many others Federer has the edge, he has an additional three finals, and his longevity at IW is unquestionably the greatest of them all. He won his first title back in 2004, which then lead to him becoming the first player to win three in a row, a feat later equalled by Djokovic, but Federer also made the finals in his last three appearances there from 2017 to 2019, winning the record equalling 5th title along the way.

What gives him an edge over Djokovic, despite them having won the same amount of titles, and Djokovic having the H2H, is that Djokovic was no longer a contender after 2016, back in his 20s, while Federer remained one well into his late 30s, this on top of all the extra finals he made. He was all in the picture in Indian Wells.

Alcaraz has been all gas and no breaks at Indian Wells these past few seasons, and while not a lock, he is a solid favorite to defend and win his third title, equalling Nadal there, at still being 21 years of age. Is it looking inevitable that he takes over Federer as IW GOAT in the very near future, or do you see him getting derailed? This court plays to his liking, beating him here as he now is entering his peak will be a very difficult task...

 

[vokazu]

While Federer and Djokovic have an equal amount of titles in desert, for me and many others Federer has the edge, he has an additional three finals, and his longevity at IW is unquestionably the greatest of them all. He won his first title back in 2004, which then lead to him becoming the first player to win three in a row, a feat later equalled by Djokovic, but Federer also made the finals in his last three appearances there from 2017 to 2019, winning the record equalling 5th title along the way.

What gives him an edge over Djokovic, despite them having won the same amount of titles, and Djokovic having the H2H, is that Djokovic was no longer a contender after 2016, back in his 20s, while Federer remained one well into his late 30s, this on top of all the extra finals he made. He was all in the picture in Indian Wells.

Alcaraz has been all gas and no breaks at Indian Wells these past few seasons, and while not a lock, he is a solid favorite to defend and win his third title, equalling Nadal there, at still being 21 years of age. Is it looking inevitable that he takes over Federer as IW GOAT in the very near future, or do you see him getting derailed? This court plays to his liking, beating him here as he now is entering his peak will be a very difficult task...

Djokovic prioritizes a more balanced achievement in all big titles on all surfaces. That's why he's the GOAT.

 

[TennisGrandpA]

Carlos should focus on bigger prizes like HC slams like Sinner does.

 

[TennisGrandpA]

While Federer and Djokovic have an equal amount of titles in desert, for me and many others Federer has the edge, he has an additional three finals, and his longevity at IW is unquestionably the greatest of them all. He won his first title back in 2004, which then lead to him becoming the first player to win three in a row, a feat later equalled by Djokovic, but Federer also made the finals in his last three appearances there from 2017 to 2019, winning the record equalling 5th title along the way.

What gives him an edge over Djokovic, despite them having won the same amount of titles, and Djokovic having the H2H, is that Djokovic was no longer a contender after 2016, back in his 20s, while Federer remained one well into his late 30s, this on top of all the extra finals he made. He was all in the picture in Indian Wells.

Alcaraz has been all gas and no breaks at Indian Wells these past few seasons, and while not a lock, he is a solid favorite to defend and win his third title, equalling Nadal there, at still being 21 years of age. Is it looking inevitable that he takes over Federer as IW GOAT in the very near future, or do you see him getting derailed? This court plays to his liking, beating him here as he now is entering his peak will be a very difficult task...

Btw getting beaten by old snail paced Nadal at his favourite tournament in his peak is something people will keep questioning forever.

 

[Hitman]

Btw getting beaten by old snail paced Nadal at his favourite tournament in his peak is something people will keep questioning forever.

You think at 18 years of age, and not having made a single big title final meant he was at his peak at that point? OK.

 

[TennisGrandpA]

You think at 18 years of age, and not having made a single big title final meant he was at his peak at that point? OK.

I think he was 19 and won his first HC slam that year and he regressed after that ( that implies his HC peak) imo

 

[Hitman]

I think he was 19 and won his first HC slam that year and he regressed after that ( that implies his HC peak) imo

So winning a slam means peak....OK, I guess that counts for any age, even in your mid 30s.

 

[TennisGrandpA]

So winning a slam means peak....OK, I guess that counts for any age, even in your mid 30s.

No I mean winning a slam then your HC slam performance going downhill implies decline. Carlos needs to win another HC slams

 

[jl809]

Fonz is coming for him despite having worryingly mid footspeed for an ATG hope

 

[Hitman]

No I mean winning a slam then your HC slam performance going downhill implies decline. Carlos needs to win another HC slams

And you think at 21 years of age, he is in decline.

So when Sampras won USO at 19, and then didn't win a HC slam until three years later, he had peaked, then declined, then peaked again?

 

[TennisGrandpA]

And you think at 21 years of age, he is in decline.

So when Sampras won USO at 19, and then didn't win a HC slam until three years later, he had peaked, then declined, then peaked again?

We can give similar example of Hewitt and Chang as well.he can improve his HC game but from what i have seen his Hc game has declined in last 2 years. He needs to step up, he’s more than capable of bouncing back and i think he will.

 

[Hitman]

We can give similar example of Hewitt and Chang as well.he can improve his HC game but from what i have seen his Hc game has declined in last 2 years. He needs to step up, he’s more than capable of bouncing back and i think he will.

The point is if Alcaraz wins more HC slams, would him losing at 18 years of age when he hadn't even made a masters final still be considered his peak when looking back on his career? I mean Sampras didn't win big for three years either after winning at the same age, and no one in their right mind thinks him losing anything when he was 18 was him at his peak.

 

[Gazelle]

I think he was 19 and won his first HC slam that year and he regressed after that ( that implies his HC peak) imo

Ye and Nadal won two slams that year.

 

[nolefam_2024]

You think at 18 years of age, and not having made a single big title final meant he was at his peak at that point? OK.

Exactly. Anyone who makes such claims should be ridiculed publicly. We are not here to win debates. Don't write something just to find a gotcha.

 

[nolefam_2024]

On main title , I think raz is likely going to be greatest at Indian Wells very soon. By 2032. In next 8 events if he even skips some, he might be able to pull it off. Especially considering this year he has no big threats left.

 

[TennisGrandpA]

Exactly. Anyone who makes such claims should be ridiculed publicly. We are not here to win debates. Don't write something just to find a gotcha.

He didn’t win a Hc slam after that , it’s not ridiculous to suggest that his Hc game has regressed in last 2 years.

 

[TennisManiac]

Djokovic prioritizes a more balanced achievement in all big titles on all surfaces. That's why he's the GOAT.

That's your opinion

 

[nolefam_2024]

He didn’t win a Hc slam after that , it’s not ridiculous to suggest that his Hc game has regressed in last 2 years.

I don't know what you are responding to. It was you who opened the door for criticism putting a stupid comment "snail paced nadal" bs when nadal was top 3 in the rankings and had just won AO and some other hc tournament if I am right.

 

[MeatTornado]

Before this thread I didn't even remember how many Indian Wells Federer or Djokovic had won.

So I guess my answer to the question is I don't care.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Before this thread I didn't even remember how many Indian Wells Federer or Djokovic had won.

So I guess my answer to the question is I don't care.

These are basic stats we should know

5
6
Don't care
Don't care
Don't care
4
7
4
7
7

 

[Kralingen]

Fonz is coming for him despite having worryingly mid footspeed for an ATG hope

He’ll get his clostebol soon enough

 

[Federer and Del Potro]

Before this thread I didn't even remember how many Indian Wells Federer or Djokovic had won.

So I guess my answer to the question is I don't care.

 

[TennisGrandpA]

I don't know what you are responding to. It was you who opened the door for criticism putting a stupid comment "snail paced nadal" bs when nadal was top 3 in the rankings and had just won AO and some other hc tournament if I am right.

My bad I thought it happened after he won his first slam lol, anyway Carlos has declined since winning his first Hc slam and lost to old crippled injured Djokovic this year’s AO. Sinner didn’t lose to Djokovic at slams after winning his first slam.

 

[nolefam_2024]

My bad I thought it happened after he won his first slam lol, anyway Carlos has declined since winning his first Hc slam and lost to old crippled injured Djokovic this year’s AO. Sinner didn’t lose to Djokovic at slams after winning his first slam.

Yes because sinner got washed by Medvedev .

Do not throw stones if you can't handle. You do remember who beat sinner in Wimbledon back to back.

 

[ChrisJR3264]

I have been one to say Alcaraz is all gas and when he’s off there’s no plan B.
But sheesh , the all gas works for him 85% of the time it seems or more. Probably marching to his 3rd Indian wells title Sunday.

 

[TennisGrandpA]

Yes because sinner got washed by Medvedev .

Do not throw stones if you can't handle. You do remember who beat sinner in Wimbledon back to back.

I was talking about Hc slams and I am open to criticism , the moment he decline I’ll be the first one to call him out i promise you.

 

[nolefam_2024]

I was talking about Hc slams and I am open to criticism , the moment he decline I’ll be the first one to call him out i promise you.

This sinner character has just started almost 18 months post raz first big slam and that's why he has far lesser decline.

It will be same for sinner and the more hate you spread vs raz today, the more you will get in return.

Raz is still almost the age at which federer didn't win a slam and younger than the age at which sinner won first Masters 1000. What decline are you talking about.

 

[jl809]

2022 is Alcaraz’s best year for HC so far (it goes 22>23>24 imo). Before playing Nadal, he reached almost perfection when he blew away RBA at IW, and then he was involved in a match of the year contender at Miami vs Kec right afterwards. Then he won the USO with another match of the year contender vs Sinner. Obvs he had a couple of bad losses like Norrie and Goffin, but he’s had these every year so far. Not sure if he ever matched his Beijing 24 peak but he was better in more tournaments and got close to his ceiling more often. Plus I loved his 2022 forehand…. I feel like he’s lost some dynamism with it since then

Idk if he’s in his prime yet though. My guess is not and my suspicion is that he will start to display a level in 2026/7 that will be so obviously above what we’ve seen most of the time up until now, and will signal the start of his “HC prime”. But there won’t be Djokovic around for us to provide some context for whether he’s actually improved or is just benefitting from a big 3-free world

 

[nolefam_2024]

 

[Lleytonstation]

No. He is lucky to have 2.

 

[a10best]

No. Alcaraz' era is nothing like Feds who had to play peak Nadal, Djokovic, Murray, Delpo, Stanimal and Thiem at IW.

 

[messiahrobins]

While Federer and Djokovic have an equal amount of titles in desert, for me and many others Federer has the edge, he has an additional three finals, and his longevity at IW is unquestionably the greatest of them all. He won his first title back in 2004, which then lead to him becoming the first player to win three in a row, a feat later equalled by Djokovic, but Federer also made the finals in his last three appearances there from 2017 to 2019, winning the record equalling 5th title along the way.

What gives him an edge over Djokovic, despite them having won the same amount of titles, and Djokovic having the H2H, is that Djokovic was no longer a contender after 2016, back in his 20s, while Federer remained one well into his late 30s, this on top of all the extra finals he made. He was all in the picture in Indian Wells.

Alcaraz has been all gas and no breaks at Indian Wells these past few seasons, and while not a lock, he is a solid favorite to defend and win his third title, equalling Nadal there, at still being 21 years of age. Is it looking inevitable that he takes over Federer as IW GOAT in the very near future, or do you see him getting derailed? This court plays to his liking, beating him here as he now is entering his peak will be a very difficult task...

How many times did Roger and Novak play at IW and when? GOAT of IW i have never thought about..but as you raise it and as i love the event id like to analyse it a bit more.

 

[messiahrobins]

Btw getting beaten by old snail paced Nadal at his favourite tournament in his peak is something people will keep questioning forever.

Nadal was way past his best but was undefeated on HC in 2022 and had just won the AO. Alcaraz was a fresh faced 18 year old. Nothing to read into other than it was the obvious changing of guard moment.

 

[inflation_era]

Djokovic was injured in every one of his victories, therefore he has the edge. Imagine would could have been if he weren't injured!!!

 

[Hitman]

How many times did Roger and Novak play at IW and when? GOAT of IW i have never thought about..but as you raise it and as i love the event id like to analyse it a bit more.

2011 semi, 2014 and 2015 final. three times.

 

[vokazu]

That's your opinion

 

[nolefam_2024]

Facts are not opinions

 

[SonnyT]

While Federer and Djokovic have an equal amount of titles in desert, for me and many others Federer has the edge, he has an additional three finals, and his longevity at IW is unquestionably the greatest of them all. He won his first title back in 2004, which then lead to him becoming the first player to win three in a row, a feat later equalled by Djokovic, but Federer also made the finals in his last three appearances there from 2017 to 2019, winning the record equalling 5th title along the way.

What gives him an edge over Djokovic, despite them having won the same amount of titles, and Djokovic having the H2H, is that Djokovic was no longer a contender after 2016, back in his 20s, while Federer remained one well into his late 30s, this on top of all the extra finals he made. He was all in the picture in Indian Wells.

Alcaraz has been all gas and no breaks at Indian Wells these past few seasons, and while not a lock, he is a solid favorite to defend and win his third title, equalling Nadal there, at still being 21 years of age. Is it looking inevitable that he takes over Federer as IW GOAT in the very near future, or do you see him getting derailed? This court plays to his liking, beating him here as he now is entering his peak will be a very difficult task...

Djokovic had 2 wins over Federer in 2 finals! Federer had no victories over Djokovic, that I'm aware of.

 

[Winner Sinner]

1) It is very likely that Alcaraz will make this record his own.
Indian Wells enhances his style, a hard surface so slow where the incisiveness of the serves is less preponderant, hides his defects and brings out his strengths.
Here he is even superior to Sinner.

2) It is not true at all that the best Alcaraz on hard was seen in 2022.
We must also evaluate the type of opponents faced.
And in this perspective the best version of Alcaraz on hard was seen in 2023.
For example, Cincinnati 2023 memorable final lost against Djokovic, is worth much more in terms of technical depth than Miami 2022 won by the Spaniard.
Without forgetting Indian Wells 2023, probably the best version of Alcaraz ever seen so far on a single tournament without distinction of surface.
The final against Medvedev, who at that time was winning all the tournaments he entered (Rotterdam, Doha, Dubai and then Miami), was a chilling demonstration of strength.

 

[The Blond Blur]

1) It is very likely that Alcaraz will make this record his own.
Indian Wells enhances his style, a hard surface so slow where the incisiveness of the serves is less preponderant, hides his defects and brings out his strengths.
Here he is even superior to Sinner.

2) It is not true at all that the best Alcaraz on hard was seen in 2022.
We must also evaluate the type of opponents faced.
And in this perspective the best version of Alcaraz on hard was seen in 2023.
For example, Cincinnati 2023 memorable final lost against Djokovic, is worth much more in terms of technical depth than Miami 2022 won by the Spaniard.
Without forgetting Indian Wells 2023, probably the best version of Alcaraz ever seen so far on a single tournament without distinction of surface.
The final against Medvedev, who at that time was winning all the tournaments he entered (Rotterdam, Doha, Dubai and then Miami), was a chilling demonstration of strength.

Could not disagree more with the bolded. The first two sets of that match were absolutely terribad. And Joker was reeling with heat exhaustion and Carl still couldn’t get the job done. Plus he staked by the skin of his teeth that entire week without winning a single match in straight sets en route to the F. Miami 2022 vs Kec was probably the best match of the year. Especially if you limit to BO3 only.

 

[FlyingSaucer]

Could not disagree more with the bolded. The first two sets of that match were absolutely terribad. And Joker was reeling with heat exhaustion and Carl still couldn’t get the job done. Plus he staked by the skin of his teeth that entire week without winning a single match in straight sets en route to the F. Miami 2022 vs Kec was probably the best match of the year. Especially if you limit to BO3 only.

Should've lost to Hurkacz.

I'm invested in Alcaraz as IW GOAT, though. Come on, Charlie!

 

[Winner Sinner]

Could not disagree more with the bolded. The first two sets of that match were absolutely terribad. And Joker was reeling with heat exhaustion and Carl still couldn’t get the job done. Plus he staked by the skin of his teeth that entire week without winning a single match in straight sets en route to the F. Miami 2022 vs Kec was probably the best match of the year. Especially if you limit to BO3 only.

I think it is much more complicated to beat a momentarily weakened Djokovic (since in the third set he recovered his energy) rather than an inspired Kecmanovic.
That said, I saw the entire Cincinnati final only live, but I remember that at the end of the match I thought, like many others, that it had been a qualitatively superior match compared to the much overrated Wimbledon final that took place a few weeks earlier.

 

[TheGoldenEra1990’s]

Probably not. I don’t think he will have the longevity. Early bloomers generally start declining by their mid 20’s after all the mileage. Nadal was an obvious exception to the rule

 

[The Blond Blur]

I think it is much more complicated to beat a momentarily weakened Djokovic (since in the third set he recovered his energy) rather than an inspired Kecmanovic.
That said, I saw the entire Cincinnati final only live, but I remember that at the end of the match I thought, like many others, that it had been a qualitatively superior match compared to the much overrated Wimbledon final that took place a few weeks earlier.

Neither match in 2023 was worth writing home about, but 2/3 of the Cincy F was objectively terrible. It was an absolute UFEfest. The 3rd set isn’t enough to compensate compared to the overall quality of Miami 2022. You’re basically saying 1 great set beats out an entire great week of tennis in this scenario.

 

[GRASScaraz]

Neither match in 2023 was worth writing home about, but 2/3 of the Cincy F was objectively terrible. It was an absolute UFEfest. The 3rd set isn’t enough to compensate compared to the overall quality of Miami 2022. You’re basically saying 1 great set beats out an entire great week of tennis in this scenario.

Kecmanovic played like peak Djokovic that match

 

[Winner Sinner]

Neither match in 2023 was worth writing home about, but 2/3 of the Cincy F was objectively terrible. It was an absolute UFEfest. The 3rd set isn’t enough to compensate compared to the overall quality of Miami 2022. You’re basically saying 1 great set beats out an entire great week of tennis in this scenario.

No, I'm saying that a Djokovic even momentarily weakened is more complicated to face than an inspired Kecmanovic.
It's not that the spectacularity of a match necessarily certifies the level of play.

Who faced Alcaraz in his triumph in Miami that was so significant?

His most noble opponent apart from a declining Cilic was a Tsitsipas who historically has never done anything good in the Sunshine Double.

Even the match between Sinner and Alcaraz at the 2022 US Open was infinitely more spectacular than the match at Roland Garros 2024, but this does not mean that the level of the two was superior in 2022, or that beating Sinner in the 2022 US Open match was more complicated than beating him in last year's semi-final at Roland Garros, quite the opposite.

The problem with doing these retrospective analyses is that you tend to judge based on the circumstances of the moment, so since Alcaraz was the new name in full escalation when he won Miami, you tend to emphasize the level at the time, if perhaps he were to win a tournament of this kind with the same path with the current status, it would be normal administration.

 

[The Blond Blur]

No, I'm saying that a Djokovic even momentarily weakened is more complicated to face than an inspired Kecmanovic.
It's not that the spectacularity of a match necessarily certifies the level of play.

Who faced Alcaraz in his triumph in Miami that was so significant?

His most noble opponent apart from a declining Cilic was a Tsitsipas who historically has never done anything good in the Sunshine Double.

Even the match between Sinner and Alcaraz at the 2022 US Open was infinitely more spectacular than the match at Roland Garros 2024, but this does not mean that the level of the two was superior in 2022, or that beating Sinner in the 2022 US Open match was more complicated than beating him in last year's semi-final at Roland Garros, quite the opposite.

The problem with doing these retrospective analyses is that you tend to judge based on the circumstances of the moment, so since Alcaraz was the new name in full escalation when he won Miami, you tend to emphasize the level at the time, if perhaps he were to win a tournament of this kind with the same path with the current status, it would be normal administration.

My guy there’s no retrospective nostalgia goggles wearing going on here. By any metric Miami 2022 was the more impressive run. I’m comparing both Fs runs side by side and it’s not close. Barely scraping by guys who aren’t even the upper echelon of the sport and outside of the 3rd set of F turning in an absolutely putrid performance doesn’t eclipse the level Carl showed in Miami. Whether you use the eye test, stats, or like me a combination of the two there’s just no way to square that hole. If anything, the fact that Joker was that sick and still won is a major indictment on Carl’s level and overall performance in Cincy. He shouldn’t have even made the F with the tennis he played that week.

 

[nolefam_2024]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1900013786423038117

6-1 6-1 6-2 6-4 6-4 6-2 7-6 6-1 1-6 6-3 6-2 6-3 6-1 6-3 6-3 6-2 6-3 6-7 6-0 6-1 6-3 6-3 7-6 6-3 6-4 6-4 6-2 2-0 7-6 6-3 6-3 6-3

He will become the GOAT of IW

 

[Winner Sinner]

My guy there’s no retrospective nostalgia goggles wearing going on here. By any metric Miami 2022 was the more impressive run. I’m comparing both Fs runs side by side and it’s not close. Barely scraping by guys who aren’t even the upper echelon of the sport and outside of the 3rd set of F turning in an absolutely putrid performance doesn’t eclipse the level Carl showed in Miami. Whether you use the eye test, stats, or like me a combination of the two there’s just no way to square that hole. If anything, the fact that Joker was that sick and still won is a major indictment on Carl’s level and overall performance in Cincy. He shouldn’t have even made the F with the tennis he played that week.

Instead, he risks losing to Kecmanovic, it was a great feat.

Djokovic, temporarily weakened or not, was a player who won that tournament, a tournament that only thanks to his presence made Cincinnati a much more challenging test than Miami 2022.
And Alcaraz also had match points, against a player who during that tournament began a streak of victories that continued until the match with Sinner in the group in Turin, with victories in addition to Cincinnati, also at the US Open and Bercy (plus the Davis Cup qualifications).

So yes, Cincinnati 23 was better than Miami 22 where he did not face any truly relevant opponent.

 

[Incognito]

Carlos will peak in 2-3 years. And with even more advancement in sports medicine, I hope he plays as long as the big 3.