Alcaraz is set to be #1 for a while now

[manley0702]

Given the points that Sinner has to defend the rest of the year through AUS next year, it's tough to see Alcaraz not being #1 for a while now. Breakdown:

Sinner is defending:

Beijing F
Shanghai W
ATP Finals W (perfect run)
AUS W

Alcaraz is defending:

Beijing W
Shanghai QF
Paris R16
ATP Finals RR exit
AUS QF

I had forgotten just how poorly Alcaraz played in fall of last year which makes it more all the more impressive that he's gained #1 back this early in the year. While Sinner missed time due to suspension in spring, it's still unlikely he can overtake Alcaraz before Clay season because, again, Alcaraz underperformed:

Alcaraz post AUS this year:

Rotterdam W
Doha QF
IW SF
Miami R64

Even if Sinner has a big spring, Alcaraz will, in all likelihood, be gaining points just by making finals. The earliest feasible moment I see for Sinner to take back #1 would be when Alcaraz's 1,000 points from Monte Carlo drop which is 31 weeks from today. That would give him an additional 31 weeks at #1 and put him just ahead of Sinner at 68 weeks all-time in 12th place all time.

 

[Cramerica]

What happened to Sinners points when he was banned? He basically has no points to defend during those tournaments within that 3 month period?

 

[manley0702]

What happened to Sinners points when he was banned? He basically has no points to defend during those tournaments within that 3 month period?

That's correct, but it's not likely to help get him back to #1 until, as I stated, mid-April at the earliest. While he isn't defending points from post-AUS through Miami, Alcaraz is only defending 1,010 points over that same 3-month span so there isn't enough points for Alcaraz to defend to give Sinner a chance to catch up, even if Sinner wins everything he enters.

 

[jackson vile]

Sinner better figure it out fast!

 

[Nappa]

Alcaraz would surpass Nastase, Murray, Kuerten, Courier… if he stays atop the atp ranking until Monte Carlo. Incredible scenes.

 

[tennnisfanatic]

Yeah he should be able to keep it until the start of the clay next year at least.