Alcaraz will win 12 slams by 25 and 20 by 30.

Z

Zain786

Semi-Pro
He is set to surpass the Big 3 based on current trends -

1) 12 total slams by age 25 (a new open-era record)
2) 20 slams by age 30

Records to be broken of Big Three -

1) First 7 slams won - Alcaraz will go at least 8-0 undefeated
2) Channel Slams - At least 3 more channel slams leading to 4 overall
3) 5 USO titles - He will win at least 6
4) 8 Wimbledon Titles - He will win at least 9 so 7 more to break the record
5) Fastest player to win 5-10 slams in record time by age 25
6) Career Grand Slam (held by Nadal at age 24) - Alcaraz will sweep this record by at least 2025-2026.
7) 5 Madrid Titles (held by Nadal) - He will win at least 7 to become the outright leader
8) 5 Indian Wells Titles (held by DjokoFed) - He will at least 7 to become the outright leader

No challenger is in sight and Alcaraz is sweeping all including the lost gen. Sinner is not on this level as shown by his 1 slam and lack of big match wins. Big Three is finished and Nadal/Djoko will retire by season ending 2025.

We all thought that winning double digit slams would be hard, but Alcaraz will win at least 15-20 at current trends (no challenger in sight).
 
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weakera said:
There are two completely unknown elements at play here,

1- Health
2- Strength of tour

If Alcaraz remains healthy, and the tour remains weak, he will eclipse 24 slams and make it look easy. But those are two big "if's," so we will have to wait and see.
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He basically needs to combine the careers of all 3 of Federer, Nadal and Djokovic. He broke through young like Nadal did and has around the same number of Slams at that age. If he can replicate Federer's 2003-2007 stretch from next year that's a total of 16 Slams by the age of 26/27. He would still need another 9 Slams into his early / mid-30s, which can only realistically be achieved if he is absurdly far above the field. So he needs both concentrated dominance and longevity - it's a lot to ask
 
Health health health health health

Stop jinxing him, I did it in 2022 and he promptly missed the AO, then cramped at RG, then lost to freaking Medvedev and Zverev at consecutive Slams.

I know he looks awesome now but it’s July. He has yet to have a healthy season under his legs on the ATP Tour and has yet to even win an ATP tournament from September-February. Long way to go.
 
Yah, Man! I'm jamming at Carlitos Wimbly win 2024. Watching him play is sufficient, but just a quick look shows he has 4 slams, 5 master's 1000 etc. He has made records already, and is aged just 21. So the future looks bright. Life, though is a constant state of flux. Positive thinking / hoping for the desired results are not guaranteed, certainty does not exist.
It isn't just health / fitness / well-being, but the hunger to chase the dream and keep the relentless training and austere regime going are key factors. Then there is the competition, which can also vary.
Enjoying the now, and hoping Carlitos can keep improving and playing well. The increased slam tally may or may not happen.
 
Zain786 said:
He is set to surpass the Big 3 based on current trends -

1) 12 total slams by age 25 (a new open-era record)
2) 20 slams by age 30

Records to be broken of Big Three -

1) First 7 slams won - Alcaraz will go at least 8-0 undefeated
2) Channel Slams - At least 3 more channel slams leading to 4 overall
3) 5 USO titles - He will win at least 6
4) 8 Wimbledon Titles - He will win at least 9 so 7 more to break the record
5) Fastest player to win 5-10 slams in record time by age 25
6) Career Grand Slam (held by Nadal at age 24) - Alcaraz will sweep this record by at least 2025-2026.
7) 5 Madrid Titles (held by Nadal) - He will win at least 7 to become the outright leader
8) 5 Indian Wells Titles (held by DjokoFed) - He will at least 7 to become the outright leader

No challenger is in sight and Alcaraz is sweeping all including the lost gen. Sinner is not on this level as shown by his 1 slam and lack of big match wins. Big Three is finished and Nadal/Djoko will retire by season ending 2025.

We all thought that winning double digit slams would be hard, but Alcaraz will win at least 15-20 at current trends (no challenger in sight).
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Not only is he the golden boy, he is also a phenomenon of nature called a hurricane, ready to devastate and shatter any obstacle, mark, record of the so-called Big 3.
 
Krish872007 said:
He basically needs to combine the careers of all 3 of Federer, Nadal and Djokovic. He broke through young like Nadal did and has around the same number of Slams at that age. If he can replicate Federer's 2003-2007 stretch from next year that's a total of 16 Slams by the age of 26/27. He would still need another 9 Slams into his early / mid-30s, which can only realistically be achieved if he is absurdly far above the field. So he needs both concentrated dominance and longevity - it's a lot to ask
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Why do Federer fans always include the year 2003 if he only won one GS title?
Beyond having won Wimbledon, put Federer from 2008 in that season and he would dominate the circuit as he would later in the 2004-2007 period.
 
Tano said:
Why do Federer fans always include the year 2003 if he only won one GS title?
Beyond having won Wimbledon, put Federer from 2008 in that season and he would dominate the circuit as he would later in the 2004-2007 period.
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It's for the age by age comparison heading into mid-20s, the focus isn't so much the 2003 season in its entirety. Alcaraz turns 22 next year and that's roughly the age that Federer won his first Slam and very quickly won 11 more after that (he won 2 of 3 Slams in that window up to AO 2004, so mid-2003 was the catalyst) - the overarching point is kicking into a higher gear and posting multiple multi-Slam seasons in a row.
Alcaraz is currently ahead of the game as he already has a multi-Slam season.
 
Depends on the competition. The way things are now, yes, OP could be right, but we don't know what the future holds.
 
I don't get the point of this kind of premature hagiography. Although it occurs in many sports, it seems particularly popular in tennis. It typically just relies on naive extrapolation ("He won two slams this year, so after 10 more years that's 20 more slams, giving him a total of 24 at only age 30!").
 
chjtennis said:
Depends on the competition. The way things are now, yes, OP could be right, but we don't know what the future holds.
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Some cant even see whats happening under their noses let alone tell the future but hopefully for tennis
we can see this kind of tennis take over or at least encourage more to play this kind of tennis.
If this kid keeps improving and stays healthy it could be 30 slams before 30.
 
Sinner will stop him by trading slams, and maybe some other guys will turn up for the task and nab a couple of slams. I doubt Alcaraz will be able to be at a high level like big 3 were in their 30s and fend off new generations like they did so the window is small here. 24 slams is pretty much impossible to achieve if you are not able to replicate your best throughout your career like Djokovic did. Alcaraz ain't no Djokovic.
 
RF-18 said:
Sinner will stop him by trading slams, and maybe some other guys will turn up for the task and nab a couple of slams. I doubt Alcaraz will be able to be at a high level like big 3 were in their 30s and fend off new generations like they did so the window is small here. 24 slams is pretty much impossible to achieve if you are not at your best throughout your career. Alcaraz ain't no Djokovic.
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So far, Alcaraz is better than Djokovic based on results, level and talent.

Djokovic is ahead in fitness.
 
grandefrankie said:
If that somehow ever happens you know Djokovic fans will cry "weak field". Oh the irony.
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Of course quality of opponents matter. There are plenty of boxers that had better records than Ali, but he did it in the golden age of boxing.

But Alcaraz can still make it a conversation.

Beat Djokovic record by 3-4 slams (chances of him playing 100+ games vs top 5 all time legends like Fed and Nadal are next to zero) and beat his many records.
Dominate 3-4 different generations. Meaning that at 34-35 he still has to be no1, and beat the lesser top players of the moment if they are not truly special. Much like Djokovic did last year at 36.

Extremely difficult imo, because big rivals can push you to go the extra mile. Even if you lose some slam titles because big rivals are gonna beat you far more often than mugs, in the long run, they are a necessary challenge for players to keep getting better.

Alcaraz himself is the best example. He played the best match I've ever seen from him recently vs Djokovic, precisely because it was Djokovic in a the biggest final of them all. Huge rivalries create legends.

One thing is certain, from this point, Alcaraz can never lose to Djokovic again in a big match. The advantages he has are quite big. At times, this last final looked like Ali vs Holmes.
 
ND-13 said:
He is on track and ahead at this time
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There are just too many variables to make reliable predictions at this stage. Not every prodigy is built for the long haul, like Nadal. Sometimes tremendous success at a young age, which produces a concomitant ramping up of pressure of the athlete, can contribute to early burnout (Borg, Wilander, Becker). Sometimes the winning just ... stops, e.g., McEnroe, Courier. (This can be due to changes in the game itself or the emergence of new talents.) There also can be extraordinary events outside of competition that derail careers, e.g., Seles, Maureen Connolly.
 
JMR said:
There are just too many variables to make reliable predictions at this stage. Not every prodigy is built for the long haul, like Nadal. Sometimes tremendous success at a young age, which produces a concomitant ramping up of pressure of the athlete, can contribute to early burnout (Borg, Wilander, Becker). Sometimes the winning just ... stops, e.g., McEnroe, Courier. (This can be due to changes in the game itself or the emergence of new talents.) There also can be extraordinary events outside of competition that derail careers, e.g., Seles, Maureen Connolly.
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Valid points . But he could also keep going like Pete, Federer , Nadal or like Djokovic win 12 majors in 5 years after age 30-31
 
People: Alcaraz walk on water!
Alcaraz:

walking-on-water.gif
 
ND-13 said:
He is on track and ahead at this time
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In terms of his tennis ability he has potential to become one of the greatest tennis players but starting already talking about him winning 21 slams more is just ridiculous. You can't be serious. There is so much more than potential that needs to perfectly align for him and we haven't seen close to enough how his body and mind will react in a couple of years time and how his game will develop. Everything won't be sing and dance throughout his career like you may seem to believe cause you can't think further than your nose can reach. there will be big bumps on the road like every athlete has to deal with, he will have some big losses too to account for, injuries etc.

To add some perspective: if he wins CYGS every year from next year, that's gonna take 5 years off his career to accomplish 24 majors.
 
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RF-18 said:
In terms of his tennis ability he has potential to become one of the greatest tennis players but starting already talking about him winning 21 slams more is just ridiculous. You can't be serious. There is so much more than potential that needs to perfectly align for him and we haven't seen close to enough how his body and mind will react in a couple of years time and how his game will develop.

Say he wins CYGS every year from next year, that's gonna take 5 years off his career to accomplish 24 majors.
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If Djokovic can win 12 majors in 5 years at age 31-36, Carlos cannot win 20 in 15 years from age 21-36 ??
 
ND-13 said:
If Djokovic can win 12 majors in 5 years at age 31-36, Carlos cannot win 20 in 15 years from age 21-36 ??
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LOL. You are talking as if that's just a stroll in the park to rack up majors till you are past mid 30s and stay at the top of the rankings for several generations. Why are you even comparing to Djokovic who we already know how his career developed and what he did to stay on top. We know nothing about Alcaraz's path yet as he is still in his early 20s and you and others are talking about 20+ majors like "why not".
 
RF-18 said:
LOL. You are talking as if that's just a stroll in the park to rack up majors till you are past mid 30s and stay at the top of the rankings for several generations. Why are you even comparing to Djokovic who we already know how his career developed and what he did to stay on top. We know nothing about Alcaraz's path yet as he is still in his early 20s and you and others are talking about 20+ majors like "why not".
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One has to be blind to not notice that he is already 20% of the way in when he is barely 21.

He has to average 1 major for next 15 years to get to 20 and above. Now change that a little bit and have a couple of 2 or 3 major years and he gets it done by age 30-31. I don’t see why not . You seem to forget that big 3 had each other to stop. No such thing for Carlos. One has to hope he gets injured or there is mental fatigue. And he already said he is in for the long haul. And the coach is one who is steady as rock and same culture , so that partnership knows how to win the long war. A slam loss here or an injury there is not going to derail the train.
 
ND-13 said:
A slam loss here or an injury there is not going to derail the train.
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Thiem and Delpo just off the top of my head. All it takes is one.

He caught Djoker on the very end of his career and beat Ruud and Zverev who are both slamless.

So far he has yet to have a win that is impressive. He could easily lose to many people if they play good. Hence Tiafoe being up 2-1 and Zverev up 2-1. He closed them out but will he always? Not like he has just dominated.
 
Lleytonstation said:
Thiem and Delpo just off the top of my head. All it takes is one.

He caught Djoker on the very end of his career and beat Ruud and Zverev who are both slamless.

So far he has yet to have a win that is impressive. He could easily lose to many people if they play good. Hence Tiafoe being up 2-1 and Zverev up 2-1. He closed them out but will he always? Not like he has just dominated.
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Delpo was big and heavy and put so much weight into his shots .

Thiem also did the same thing

Alcaraz is an artist. Like RF, has 10 ways to win points
 
ND-13 said:
Delpo was big and heavy and put so much weight into his shots .

Thiem also did the same thing

Alcaraz is an artist. Like RF, has 10 ways to win points
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Fair. But he is like Rafa in that he uses athleticism to win many points. Maybe his body holds up, maybe it doesn't. Rafa had a ton of injuries, but he always had a surface to fall back on where he was dominant, and he was a fighter and warrior that Carlos has yet to be asked to show. Maybe he can maybe he can not, but I doubt he is as tough as Rafa.

Carlos already has elbow issues. I know he is using less spin now, but that does not mean it will not come back. How does his knees hold up?
 
Lleytonstation said:
Fair. But he is like Rafa in that he uses athleticism to win many points. Maybe his body holds up, maybe it doesn't. Rafa had a ton of injuries, but he always had a surface to fall back on where he was dominant, and he was a fighter and warrior that Carlos has yet to be asked to show. Maybe he can maybe he can not, but I doubt he is as tough as Rafa.

Carlos already has elbow issues. I know he is using less spin now, but that does not mean it will not come back. How does his knees hold up?
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His body is the only concern and a big one. But I think he has a cool head and has a great team . He is good on all surfaces, can make up one major for the other and they are in it for the long haul.

I think they will carefully plan the career for the long haul and not chase ranking points, endorsements and pay checks.

Sports medicine will only improve. See the case of Riley Opelka today.

I feel there are lots of lessons others have learnt that is going to help Alcaraz. We often under estimate that. Careers are getting longer every year across sports . The early birds are at a huge advantage
 
Tano said:
Why do Federer fans always include the year 2003 if he only won one GS title?
Beyond having won Wimbledon, put Federer from 2008 in that season and he would dominate the circuit as he would later in the 2004-2007 period.
Click to expand...
08 Fed doesn't win the AO or RG, or WTF in 03, same muggery in B03, and there's a chance Roddick nips him at either Wimby or USO (Wimby more realistic due to Federer's tragic grass return, but also if he won Wimby he's more likely to not peak super hard for USO like he did). So at best he wins an extra major which is significant but the same is true of 08 Fed in any year from 11 to present (and in many of the recent ones he might win 4).
 
Lleytonstation said:
Fair. But he is like Rafa in that he uses athleticism to win many points. Maybe his body holds up, maybe it doesn't. Rafa had a ton of injuries, but he always had a surface to fall back on where he was dominant, and he was a fighter and warrior that Carlos has yet to be asked to show. Maybe he can maybe he can not, but I doubt he is as tough as Rafa.

Carlos already has elbow issues. I know he is using less spin now, but that does not mean it will not come back. How does his knees hold up?
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I think Rafa overplayed sometimes when he was injured. And I think some of that was down to uncle Toni who encouraged that. Don't get me wrong, Toni obviously did an amazing job with Nadal overall as his career shows, but I think he encouraged him to play when injured too often which was a bad idea.

I am not sure if that would happen with Carlos or not. He seems to be smart thus far, but he is coached by Ferrero who is not someone I have a lot of faith in. I could see him being ill advised in certain situations if that is who he stays with, although I suspect he will have another coach at some point.
 
grandefrankie said:
I think Rafa overplayed sometimes when he was injured. And I think some of that was down to uncle Toni who encouraged that. Don't get me wrong, Toni obviously did an amazing job with Nadal overall as his career shows, but I think he encouraged him to play when injured too often which was a bad idea.

I am not sure if that would happen with Carlos or not. He seems to be smart thus far, but he is coached by Ferrero who is not someone I have a lot of faith in. I could see him being ill advised in certain situations if that is who he stays with, although I suspect he will have another coach at some point.
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I can see that, but I also think Rafa achieved so much because he was able to push through those injuries and still find success. I do think a lot of it was being able to take time off knowing he could make up for it during the clay swing. Carlos will not have that luxury.
 
Lleytonstation said:
I can see that, but I also think Rafa achieved so much because he was able to push through those injuries and still find success. I do think a lot of it was being able to take time off knowing he could make up for it during the clay swing. Carlos will not have that luxury.
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I see the early signs of Carlos probably being the one to beat on clay for the forseeable future, but yes I don't see him dominating on clay like Nadal did at all, not even close. I think his most dominant surface will probably be grass if I had to guess, but you don't gain a lot of points on grass, which is basically just the one biggest event in the world Wimbledon and a couple puny tournaments, and that is it.
 
ND-13 said:
One has to be blind to not notice that he is already 20% of the way in when he is barely 21.

He has to average 1 major for next 15 years to get to 20 and above. Now change that a little bit and have a couple of 2 or 3 major years and he gets it done by age 30-31. I don’t see why not . You seem to forget that big 3 had each other to stop. No such thing for Carlos. One has to hope he gets injured or there is mental fatigue. And he already said he is in for the long haul. And the coach is one who is steady as rock and same culture , so that partnership knows how to win the long war. A slam loss here or an injury there is not going to derail the train.
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You are talking 10-15 years ahead of time (wich is about the time span it would take him) and saying why not. He will have to chase the record right to the ending stages of his career and at the same time stay at the top of the game for that period, and you treat it as something that can be done easily and determening that now.

I gave you the CYGS perspective before, now think of this, say he wins 3 slams every year until he gets the record, that would take him 7 years. He will be 28. That kind of win rate ain't happening either. It amazes me you can't see how ridiculous this conversation is to be had at this moment in time. He has barely any margins to work with, and you think you can treat a professional athlete like he is gonna go flawless with no setbecks in such a large period.
 
Zain786 said:
He is set to surpass the Big 3 based on current trends -

1) 12 total slams by age 25 (a new open-era record)
2) 20 slams by age 30

Records to be broken of Big Three -

1) First 7 slams won - Alcaraz will go at least 8-0 undefeated
2) Channel Slams - At least 3 more channel slams leading to 4 overall
3) 5 USO titles - He will win at least 6
4) 8 Wimbledon Titles - He will win at least 9 so 7 more to break the record
5) Fastest player to win 5-10 slams in record time by age 25
6) Career Grand Slam (held by Nadal at age 24) - Alcaraz will sweep this record by at least 2025-2026.
7) 5 Madrid Titles (held by Nadal) - He will win at least 7 to become the outright leader
8) 5 Indian Wells Titles (held by DjokoFed) - He will at least 7 to become the outright leader

No challenger is in sight and Alcaraz is sweeping all including the lost gen. Sinner is not on this level as shown by his 1 slam and lack of big match wins. Big Three is finished and Nadal/Djoko will retire by season ending 2025.

We all thought that winning double digit slams would be hard, but Alcaraz will win at least 15-20 at current trends (no challenger in sight).
Click to expand...


Is this a fact, guess or prediction or all 3

Lol
 
Its 6 slams before he turns 23, so imo he has a very fair chance to reach at least Edberg/Becker at age 22, he "only" needs 2/6 of the next slams.
 
RF-18 said:
You are talking 10-15 years ahead of time (wich is about the time span it would take him) and saying why not. He will have to chase the record right to the ending stages of his career and at the same time stay at the top of the game for that period, and you treat it as something that can be done easily and determening that now.

I gave you the CYGS perspective before, now think of this, say he wins 3 slams every year until he gets the record, that would take him 7 years. He will be 28. That kind of win rate ain't happening either. It amazes me you can't see how ridiculous this conversation is to be had at this moment in time. He has barely any margins to work with, and you think you can treat a professional athlete like he is gonna go flawless with no setbecks in such a large period.
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His career could be for 15 years and he could get this done in 10.

And if he happens to get CYGS, he doesn’t even need to get to 20. He will have something so big that only Laver could do and big 3 couldn’t .

The combination to amass slams is strong ATG and relatively weak competition. The next 5-6 years are perfectly placed for that , just similar or even better than 2018-23
 
ND-13 said:
His career could be for 15 years and he could get this done in 10.

And if he happens to get CYGS, he doesn’t even need to get to 20. He will have something so big that only Laver could do and big 3 couldn’t .

The combination to amass slams is strong ATG and relatively weak competition. The next 5-6 years are perfectly placed for that , just similar or even better than 2018-23
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How many slams can he get with a CYGS and be considered greater than or equal to the big 3?
 
metsman said:
08 Fed doesn't win the AO or RG, or WTF in 03, same muggery in B03, and there's a chance Roddick nips him at either Wimby or USO (Wimby more realistic due to Federer's tragic grass return, but also if he won Wimby he's more likely to not peak super hard for USO like he did). So at best he wins an extra major which is significant but the same is true of 08 Fed in any year from 11 to present (and in many of the recent ones he might win 4).
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Would Federer of RG 2008 be beaten from Ferrero of RG 2003?
Mmm...
 
Tano said:
Would Federer of RG 2008 be beaten from Ferrero of RG 2003?
Mmm...
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it's not a lock or anything and certainly Fed will have chances, but Ferrero is a really good clay courter (better than 2008 Djokovic) and his best version should have every chance against the 5th best Federer lacking confidence, etc.

Federer didn't look good at 08 RG at any time, even forgetting about the final. But sure there definitely is a chance he wins that.
 
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