Alcaraz will win 12 slams by 25 and 20 by 30.

zagor said:
How do you know? Monfils the clown gave Fed a pretty tough match in the 2008 FO SF.

JCF's peak was short lived but he was an excellent player at his best and TTWers tend to vastly overrate 2008 Fed.
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Fed RG 07 beats him for sure. 08 Fed at RG was pretty average for his standard agree so I wouldn't completely rule anything out there. Like Nadal was imperious but Fed should have grabbed a few more games 4 games is kinda bad.
 
RF-18 said:
In terms of his tennis ability he has potential to become one of the greatest tennis players but starting already talking about him winning 21 slams more is just ridiculous. You can't be serious. There is so much more than potential that needs to perfectly align for him and we haven't seen close to enough how his body and mind will react in a couple of years time and how his game will develop. Everything won't be sing and dance throughout his career like you may seem to believe cause you can't think further than your nose can reach. there will be big bumps on the road like every athlete has to deal with, he will have some big losses too to account for, injuries etc.

To add some perspective: if he wins CYGS every year from next year, that's gonna take 5 years off his career to accomplish 24 majors.
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The dedication and longevity needed is difficult to comprehend, and the odds are very slim.

For now what we should be looking for is quality of play and we got that at Wim.

The rest will take a lot of years to find out, but I can’t help but feel injuries will be an issue
 
Lleytonstation said:
Actually it is just 4 slams...

But 10 slams will not do it with one CYGS. He needs minimum 15 to be with the big 3 if has a CYGS.
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CYGS is a bit overrated anyway. I don't think it is that much or any more valuable than winning 4 in a row. I am not a Djokovic fan, and I do question whether he is the actual GOAT even today, but I also don't hold his lack of a CYGS against him (well Federer and Nadal not having one either is part of that, lol, but still it wouldn't make a huge difference for me either way; never considered it this blow to his legacy when he lost that US Open final to Medvedev to lose the CYGS). People also don't seem to hold Graf and Court for instance in that much higher regard for having a CYGS. Many do consider Graf the female GOAT, but it isn't due to the CYGS in hardly any cases.

Also Laver has won the Grand Slam twice, even thrice if we count his pro slam in 67, but as the amateur in 62 was kind of a bogus thing with the best players pro lets say 2 for the sake of argument, both officialy (62 and 69) and practically (67 and 69). He should be the undisputed, uncrowned GOAT based on that if CYGS were so important, after all this is a guy with 2 along with an amazing career in many other respects. And he isn't of course, many do consider him the GOAT but it isn't unquestioned like it would be for a guy with multitple CYGS if CYGS were that important, multiple would slam the debate altogether then. Heck when Sampras first retired, some had Sampras as GOAT over Laver, the guy without a single 3 slam year. So yeah CYGS aint all that.
 
Kralingen said:
Health health health health health

Stop jinxing him, I did it in 2022 and he promptly missed the AO, then cramped at RG, then lost to freaking Medvedev and Zverev at consecutive Slams.

I know he looks awesome now but it’s July. He has yet to have a healthy season under his legs on the ATP Tour and has yet to even win an ATP tournament from September-February. Long way to go.
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So did Nadal at that age and he kept winning Slams at 36.

Even if Alcaraz was to miss out on 15-20% of the Slams until 2035 I would still think he has a shot at 24.

To me the biggest problem is that the tour doesnt have a lot of extended voids (with the exception of Djokovics competition in 2018-2023 which was a farce), so to me it's more about maxing out now in the next 2-3 years when Alcaraz is clearly the best player in the world and his only competition is Berdych 2.0.

Alcaraz should be sitting at 10-12 Slams at the age of 25-26 to be honest.
 
10+ slams sure but 20+ is still a HUGE obstacle, one which he can overcome of course but all the 20+ major winners had to win some slams in their 30s and only reached that milestone when they were in their 30s, too far to think that ahead and if Sinner becomes his #1 rival then things can quickly change
 
Zain786 said:
He is set to surpass the Big 3 based on current trends -

1) 12 total slams by age 25 (a new open-era record)
2) 20 slams by age 30

Records to be broken of Big Three -

1) First 7 slams won - Alcaraz will go at least 8-0 undefeated
2) Channel Slams - At least 3 more channel slams leading to 4 overall
3) 5 USO titles - He will win at least 6
4) 8 Wimbledon Titles - He will win at least 9 so 7 more to break the record
5) Fastest player to win 5-10 slams in record time by age 25
6) Career Grand Slam (held by Nadal at age 24) - Alcaraz will sweep this record by at least 2025-2026.
7) 5 Madrid Titles (held by Nadal) - He will win at least 7 to become the outright leader
8) 5 Indian Wells Titles (held by DjokoFed) - He will at least 7 to become the outright leader

No challenger is in sight and Alcaraz is sweeping all including the lost gen. Sinner is not on this level as shown by his 1 slam and lack of big match wins. Big Three is finished and Nadal/Djoko will retire by season ending 2025.

We all thought that winning double digit slams would be hard, but Alcaraz will win at least 15-20 at current trends (no challenger in sight).
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How many for Sinner? :giggle:
 
Lleytonstation said:
A cygs is nice, but still 4 slams at the end of the day. It only would matter if he was sitting on like 20 if we are talking greatest ever.
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It's not about practicality but propaganda, the appeal comes from the fact that the Golden Era of tennis resulted in neither three of the GOATs achieveing a CYGS,
If Alcaraz won one, then everybody would be exclaiming about how Carlos did something the GOAT and the other GOATs couldn't even though it would've been harder
for Djokovic considering the other two.
 
KingCarlitos said:
It's not about practicality but propaganda, the appeal comes from the fact that the Golden Era of tennis resulted in neither three of the GOATs achieveing a CYGS,
If Alcaraz won one, then everybody would be exclaiming about how Carlos did something the GOAT and the other GOATs couldn't even though it would've been harder
for Djokovic considering the other two.
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But there was a very good reason for it. There were 3 guys winning 20 plus slams. The greatest grass player ever, the greatest clay player ever, and the greatest hard court player ever.

There is a vacuum for Carlos here. Very good reasons as to why no big3 won a cygs.
 
Lleytonstation said:
But there was a very good reason for it. There were 3 guys winning 20 plus slams. The greatest grass player ever, the greatest clay player ever, and the greatest hard court player ever.

There is a vacuum for Carlos here. Very good reasons as to why no big3 won a cygs.
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It doesn't matter, the propaganda will drown out those preaching the variables as to why the big three didn't win a slam.
The reason why the three didn't win one was because of exterior variables, If Alcaraz wins one the cold hard facts will be that Carlos will have won a CYGS and the other three
didn't. Also Sinner may develop into an ATG level player and some 15 yr old freaks are probably cooking up rn.
 
KingCarlitos said:
It doesn't matter, the propaganda will drown out those preaching the variables as to why the big three didn't win a slam.
The reason why the three didn't win one was because of exterior variables, If Alcaraz wins one the cold hard facts will be that Carlos will have won a CYGS and the other three
didn't. Also Sinner may develop into an ATG level player and some 15 yr old freaks are probably cooking up rn.
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All maybes, and still would be an impressive feat regardless.

Still, no amount of propaganda will make up for winning 4 plus less slams, let alone 14 less.
 
KingCarlitos said:
It doesn't matter, the propaganda will drown out those preaching the variables as to why the big three didn't win a slam.
The reason why the three didn't win one was because of exterior variables, If Alcaraz wins one the cold hard facts will be that Carlos will have won a CYGS and the other three
didn't. Also Sinner may develop into an ATG level player and some 15 yr old freaks are probably cooking up rn.
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I agree. If Carlos does it his year will surpass the big 3’s best year. He can only play what’s in front of him. If he gets the records as well he’s best. That is how it works.

As you say though Sinner or another player after him might prove to be tough competition. Time will tell.
 
Bastion said:
He has no rivals of his gen at all, so he can get at least 50 before 30 years old.
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It won’t be that easy even if tour stays as it is. He won’t always be fit or peaking right for every slam. We know in tennis things can change fast. I do expect a couple of rivals after him and Sinner to challenge him too. The others like Zverev/Meddy might stop him another time too.

I expect him to dominate more on grass and clay though. I think hard courts will be tougher because the field is stronger there and also his game more vulnerable on it. We will see though if he gets better or not as he still just 21.
 
CYGS is huge, Laver did it when tennis competitors were scarce and basically nothing compared to 80s,90s or pre 2005.
5foot8 Johan Kriek was a better player than Laver but the quality he faced in his career was eons higher.
 
We likely need to wait another 6 years to see if Raz will have a big 3 group.
Technically Fed was 6 years older than Nole and 5 older than Nads so I expect
if there arent any 15yo looking like Fed or Nad, then competition will be soft.

Carlitos will be like a croc in a pond of soft frogs.
 
Sudacafan said:
I believe it should be 28, according to the implied formula.
Then 36 at 40, 44 at 45, and so on.
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eye-roll-robert-downey-jr.gif
 
DariaGT said:
We likely need to wait another 6 years to see if Raz will have a big 3 group.
Technically Fed was 6 years older than Nole and 5 older than Nads so I expect
if there arent any 15yo looking like Fed or Nad, then competition will be soft.

Carlitos will be like a croc in a pond of soft frogs.
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Thing is, Fed and Djoko both got a bit of a slow start considering what they did later, and compared to Rafa.

Carlos is ahead of Rafa at the same age and running laps around what either Novak or Fed had done

If he can combine Rafa's precocity with Djoko/Fed's longevity, he could blow the record out

Also, the odds that he will have to deal with two players of his own level are very slim.

He may not be as good on grass as Fed, but he won't have a Fed to deal with on grass either

He may not be as good on clay as Nadal, but he won't have a Nadal to deal with at RG either

He may not be as good on hard courts as Djoko but he won't have a Djoko to deal with either

Without Fed, Djoko has a CYGS in 2011. Without Rafa, Fed has three of them. Carlos will have more, better chances to get a CYGS and will have a lot more Berrettini opens once Djoko slips and isn't in the SF/F of every Slam
 
Rosstour said:
Thing is, Fed and Djoko both got a bit of a slow start considering what they did later, and compared to Rafa.

Carlos is ahead of Rafa at the same age and running laps around what either Novak or Fed had done

If he can combine Rafa's precocity with Djoko/Fed's longevity, he could blow the record out

Also, the odds that he will have to deal with two players of his own level are very slim.

He may not be as good on grass as Fed, but he won't have a Fed to deal with on grass either

He may not be as good on clay as Nadal, but he won't have a Nadal to deal with at RG either

He may not be as good on hard courts as Djoko but he won't have a Djoko to deal with either

Without Fed, Djoko has a CYGS in 2011. Without Rafa, Fed has three of them. Carlos will have more, better chances to get a CYGS and will have a lot more Berrettini opens once Djoko slips and isn't in the SF/F of every Slam
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Without Djokovic and Federer, Nadal would have won the Grand Slam in 2019 as well.
 
UnforcedTerror said:
Nonsense. It's unique but it wouldn't make you greater than someone who won more in his career.
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It is incredibly difficult to achieve, as reflected in history , and thus cannot be placed a value in terms of number of majors

Several players have achieved 20¥ majors but not the same with CYGS.
 
KingCarlitos said:
It's not about practicality but propaganda, the appeal comes from the fact that the Golden Era of tennis resulted in neither three of the GOATs achieveing a CYGS,
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Yep.
Part of its Everest-like status comes from the fact that with all their big totals of majors, they could not duplicate it.

Fed could never manage it.
Rafa could never manage it.
Even in his best year, Djokovic could not.
 
Rosstour said:
Thing is, Fed and Djoko both got a bit of a slow start considering what they did later, and compared to Rafa.

Carlos is ahead of Rafa at the same age and running laps around what either Novak or Fed had done

If he can combine Rafa's precocity with Djoko/Fed's longevity, he could blow the record out

Also, the odds that he will have to deal with two players of his own level are very slim.

He may not be as good on grass as Fed, but he won't have a Fed to deal with on grass either

He may not be as good on clay as Nadal, but he won't have a Nadal to deal with at RG either

He may not be as good on hard courts as Djoko but he won't have a Djoko to deal with either

Without Fed, Djoko has a CYGS in 2011. Without Rafa, Fed has three of them. Carlos will have more, better chances to get a CYGS and will have a lot more Berrettini opens once Djoko slips and isn't in the SF/F of every Slam
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Sinner and Rune could improve and be similar to Nole presenting issues in Slams.

There is never going to be another Nadal in Raz's career, its a given.

@17yo Fonseca could still be very good we shall see but atm is better than 17yo Fed.

Fed trampled on Hewitt and then Nadal before Nole came
So now Raz has Sinner to play leapfrog till Fonseca is way past his prom night.
 
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