Am I at risk of getting bumped?

TeamOB

Professional
I started playing for a 4.5 league this summer. Since Pittsburgh is a pretty weak tennis area, I am significantly above average at the 4.5 level. I would probably be a legit 4.5 in a strong region, but here I'm closer to a 5.0. I've played two matches so far. The first one was at #2 singles. I won 6-3 6-0. The second one was at #1 singles. I won 6-1 6-1. What are the criteria for getting bumped to 5.0? Am I at risk? My next match is against one of the better teams in the league. They have a few younger college players who (like me) are kinda overqualified for the league. I will probably have a significantly tougher match against one of them. I just wanna stay a 4.5 for the rest of the summer (I don't really care what happens after that because I'm leaving for college). Should I be worried?
 
I'm not an expert at the system, so I can't tell you your immediate risk of getting bumped. But keep winning like you're winning, and you will get bumped eventually.
 

floydcouncil

Professional
I started playing for a 4.5 league this summer. Since Pittsburgh is a pretty weak tennis area, I am significantly above average at the 4.5 level. I would probably be a legit 4.5 in a strong region, but here I'm closer to a 5.0. I've played two matches so far. The first one was at #2 singles. I won 6-3 6-0. The second one was at #1 singles. I won 6-1 6-1. What are the criteria for getting bumped to 5.0? Am I at risk? My next match is against one of the better teams in the league. They have a few younger college players who (like me) are kinda overqualified for the league. I will probably have a significantly tougher match against one of them. I just wanna stay a 4.5 for the rest of the summer (I don't really care what happens after that because I'm leaving for college). Should I be worried?
So you want to remain a 4.5 and win easily or do you want to push yourself to the fullest and compete at 5.0?
 

schmke

Hall of Fame
I started playing for a 4.5 league this summer. Since Pittsburgh is a pretty weak tennis area, I am significantly above average at the 4.5 level. I would probably be a legit 4.5 in a strong region, but here I'm closer to a 5.0. I've played two matches so far. The first one was at #2 singles. I won 6-3 6-0. The second one was at #1 singles. I won 6-1 6-1. What are the criteria for getting bumped to 5.0? Am I at risk? My next match is against one of the better teams in the league. They have a few younger college players who (like me) are kinda overqualified for the league. I will probably have a significantly tougher match against one of them. I just wanna stay a 4.5 for the rest of the summer (I don't really care what happens after that because I'm leaving for college). Should I be worried?
Are you asking if you are at risk of getting bumped? Or at risk of being DQ'd? Since you say you don't care what happens after the summer, I think you are really asking the latter as a bump would happen at year-end, but a DQ could happen mid-year and would mean you would not be eligible to continue playing 4.5 with your team and your results may be reversed.

So, are you at risk of a DQ? To be DQ'd you have to receive 3 strikes, a strike occurs when your dynamic rating exceeds the strike threshold.

The next question then is are the results you mentioned strikes? There is no way to say for sure from what you wrote above. Your dynamic rating is calculated based on the rating of your opponent and the score, and without knowing who you played one of those variables is missing. If the opponents were reasonably strong 4.5s, those scores could certainly result in strikes, but if they are weaker 4.5s, they might not be.

If you are really curious, I estimate dynamic ratings for any player that plays USTA League and can generate an Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating Report for you that will show your match and dynamic ratings, match by match. This will give you a very good idea of if either match resulted in a strike or not.

And if you just want to know more about NTRP ratings in general, see my NTRP Ratings FAQ. Contact me if you have any questions.
 

J_R_B

Hall of Fame
Your first win was against a guy with a career 2-13 record at 4.5 (and one of the wins was against a 4.0 playing up), who's been blown out every match this year. In your second match, both you guys were self-rates playing in your second match, so I'm not sure if that will even generate a rating (schmke can shed further light on that). Given all this, it doesn' seem likely that you're in imminent danger of getting DQd in season, although it could become a concern if you start beating better competition by the same margins.

You seem like a likely candidate to get bumped at year end if you continue to win, but I think you said you don't really care about that.
 

tennisjon

Professional
So you want to remain a 4.5 and win easily or do you want to push yourself to the fullest and compete at 5.0?
You obviously aren't in the 4.5-5.0 category. The problem with being a 5.0 is that leagues in many areas simply do not exist. If they do, many areas do the entire league over the course of a weekend or play the minimal amount of matches. There is less of a sense of team than at any other level. You are eligible for 9.0 and 10.0, but once again, there are very few 10.0 leagues. Even with all of this, you could still play up if you are a 4.5 in 5.0 leagues. Essentially, there is a huge incentive to not be 5.0. At any other level below, there aren't these issues.
 

mikeler

Moderator
You obviously aren't in the 4.5-5.0 category. The problem with being a 5.0 is that leagues in many areas simply do not exist. If they do, many areas do the entire league over the course of a weekend or play the minimal amount of matches. There is less of a sense of team than at any other level. You are eligible for 9.0 and 10.0, but once again, there are very few 10.0 leagues. Even with all of this, you could still play up if you are a 4.5 in 5.0 leagues. Essentially, there is a huge incentive to not be 5.0. At any other level below, there aren't these issues.
I just finished an 18+, 5.0 league. I battled but it's just too hard keeping up with the spin and quickness of players right of college. I'm hoping to see you back at 4.5 Nationals next year. ;)
 

schmke

Hall of Fame
I just finished an 18+, 5.0 league. I battled but it's just too hard keeping up with the spin and quickness of players right of college. I'm hoping to see you back at 4.5 Nationals next year. ;)
You played few enough matches and there are enough self-rated players in your flight that it is hard to say if you'll be bumped down or not. It will probably depend on how the JTC players you played do in playoffs.

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NTRP Ratings FAQ
 

Nostradamus

Bionic Poster
This is Why I advocate being able to see your dynamic rating. like where you are at,,,,like 4.7, 4.2 and whatever
 

mikeler

Moderator
You played few enough matches and there are enough self-rated players in your flight that it is hard to say if you'll be bumped down or not. It will probably depend on how the JTC players you played do in playoffs.

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NTRP Ratings FAQ
The worst loss I had was to a guy that self rated at 5.5 and appealed down to 5.0. He was not that impressive in doubles but man could he play singles. Last year the JTC players lost 2-1 in the State finals. I don't think they are as strong this year. We shall see. Worst case if I'm 5.0 next year, I'll fully embrace it and put together a super team to try and get to State.
 

tennisjon

Professional
I just finished an 18+, 5.0 league. I battled but it's just too hard keeping up with the spin and quickness of players right of college. I'm hoping to see you back at 4.5 Nationals next year. ;)
Same here man. Although I am very close to getting bumped up myself. Although I am at the time of year where I start to play badly and save my rating for next year. Once I start teaching tennis over the summer, I have no legs. Plus, with vertigo and a torn rotator I am not playing as well as I would like. Hope to see you next season!
 

Turbo-87

Legend
I don't get why people worry about being bumped up. Is it fear of losing? What do you do to try and prevent getting bumped up? Lose on purpose occasionally?
 

schmke

Hall of Fame
I don't get why people worry about being bumped up. Is it fear of losing? What do you do to try and prevent getting bumped up? Lose on purpose occasionally?
For some, it is the fear of losing, or put another way the desire to be the best at their level so they can make a run at winning at Nationals. And unfortunately, some of this group will throw matches to manipulate their rating.

Thankfully, most people don't fall into the above camp. Many want to be bumped up to accomplish a goal or to have more opportunity to play better players and be tested and further improve. It is not necessarily representative of all USTA players, but I'd say 90% of the people that get Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating Reports from me are wanting to be bumped up and are using what I provide as a progress report towards that goal.

Now, to be fair, some that are higher rated fear being bumped up because of what it will do to their playing opportunities. For example, in many areas the highest level where there is critical mass to have a league is 4.5, so someone that gets bumped to 5.0 or 5.5 may have no or very limited options for league play.

I recently became aware of a 5.0 team that was made up largely of players that had just been bumped up to 5.0 from 4.5 the previous year that had no local league play because there weren't enough players/teams and so got to advance straight to Districts. They lost badly at Districts, perhaps because they were rusty and hadn't gotten to play, but it is also possible they did it simply to get bumped back down to 4.5 so they'd have more opportunity to play, or yes, so that they could make a run at 4.5 next year.

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NTRP Rating FAQ
 

J_R_B

Hall of Fame
For some, it is the fear of losing, or put another way the desire to be the best at their level so they can make a run at winning at Nationals. And unfortunately, some of this group will throw matches to manipulate their rating.

Thankfully, most people don't fall into the above camp. Many want to be bumped up to accomplish a goal or to have more opportunity to play better players and be tested and further improve. It is not necessarily representative of all USTA players, but I'd say 90% of the people that get Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating Reports from me are wanting to be bumped up and are using what I provide as a progress report towards that goal.

Now, to be fair, some that are higher rated fear being bumped up because of what it will do to their playing opportunities. For example, in many areas the highest level where there is critical mass to have a league is 4.5, so someone that gets bumped to 5.0 or 5.5 may have no or very limited options for league play.

I recently became aware of a 5.0 team that was made up largely of players that had just been bumped up to 5.0 from 4.5 the previous year that had no local league play because there weren't enough players/teams and so got to advance straight to Districts. They lost badly at Districts, perhaps because they were rusty and hadn't gotten to play, but it is also possible they did it simply to get bumped back down to 4.5 so they'd have more opportunity to play, or yes, so that they could make a run at 4.5 next year.

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NTRP Rating FAQ
Personally, I neither want to get bumped nor do I want to have to "manage" my rating to stay at level. I just play and try to win every match (obviously not always successfully, LOL...), and if I get bumped, so be it, I'll play as a weak 4.5 at a higher level, and if not, I'll keep playing 4.0 until I do.
 

schmke

Hall of Fame
Personally, I neither want to get bumped nor do I want to have to "manage" my rating to stay at level. I just play and try to win every match (obviously not always successfully, LOL...), and if I get bumped, so be it, I'll play as a weak 4.5 at a higher level, and if not, I'll keep playing 4.0 until I do.
That's the right attitude. Just let the system work to put you at a level where your matches are competitive.

But to see if others agree, I've put a poll up on my blog. Go vote!

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NTRP Ratings FAQ
 
I agree with a comment I regularly see in this forum, that only a very small percentage of players manipulate their ratings downward, or knowingly self-rate unfairly low. However, from what I have seen, these players account for a very high percentage of national champions (I'm sure some non-system-gamer-teams have won, just a relatively small percentage). Therein lies the rub. It's about the odds. The high ground, and the correct answer of course, is to just play tennis and let your rating be what it will be, but to recognize that your chances of winning a national championship are slim and none, and slim has just left town. It's a moral choice we all have to make, but let's be realistic about the implications of that choice. Please don't respond that I'm condoning gaming the system, I'm absolutely not, those people are of course awful and evil. They'll have more of those stupid crystal trophies than you, and if that's not what you want then let them have them and improve your game instead by playing at the higher level. You'll likely be happier than they, actually.
 

Centryx

Semi-Pro
schmke, do you think you could tell if given 4 random players based on opponents and scores which pair would be the best doubles pair? or would you need them to be presorted as pairs to establish which pair would be stronger?
 

schmke

Hall of Fame
schmke, do you think you could tell if given 4 random players based on opponents and scores which pair would be the best doubles pair? or would you need them to be presorted as pairs to establish which pair would be stronger?
I can certainly tell you which pair would have the highest combined rating. But that doesn't necessarily make the best doubles pair. Familiarity, chemistry, and styles of play along with pairing a player that returns well in the deuce court with one that returns well in the ad court can make a doubles pair play better than their combined rating.

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NTRP Rating FAQ
 
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