Throughout RG 2023 I was quite outspoken in my support of Carlos and skepticism around Djokovic's ability to win the tournament.
And not just in my own posts, I was pretty cocky replying to others. I even asked for apologies from people who thought Djokovic was the favorite for RG during a Davidovich Fokina match (@junior74)
Well, that was obviously wrong. Took some time to see how wrong I was.
Have fun reading these:
So, clearly I got it wrong this Roland Garros. Obviously, no one saw the cramping coming from Carlos, including myself. But truthfully, I would pick Carlos again for RG 2024.
And the reason is, everything Djokovic did this past fortnight defied what we knew about clay tennis coming into the tournament.
-I thought Masters and lead-up tournaments mattered. Before 2022, every single Roland Garros winner in the 2000s had at least won a clay Masters 1000 or a clay 250/500 before winning Roland Garros. Djokovic didn't even make a single semi-final.
-I thought age and injury mattered - Novak was struggling with an elbow injury clearly in April/May, and his age and stamina were in question
-I thought Carlos's form mattered, Novak flattered to deceive vs. Fokina and Khachanov while Carlos was incredibly dominant, beating Musetti and Tsitsipas one-sidedly
-I thought Carlos had the physical advantage with his experience of 4 5-setters at the US Open last summer
-I thought Novak's clay form in every single match before the SF mattered even one bit.
The truth is, in this era, none of the lead-up stuff matters. Just who can elevate on the biggest stage. And right now, that man is still none other than Novak Djokovic. His spot serving, his ability to read, absorb, and inject pace and spin, his ability to vary his intensity, his tactical solutions on-court, his clutch play, his strategy and mind for tennis still allow him to win even without his old athleticism. I thought he had declined a lot, but ignored that he has never thought through matches better, never hit a serve better, he truly just gets it in a way that can't really be quantified.
So apologies - mainly to @TennisFan3 and @Checkmate for showing me the way. For 2023 at least, Novak is the man of the moment, and the man to beat. Wimbledon here we come.
And not just in my own posts, I was pretty cocky replying to others. I even asked for apologies from people who thought Djokovic was the favorite for RG during a Davidovich Fokina match (@junior74)
Well, that was obviously wrong. Took some time to see how wrong I was.
Have fun reading these:
Imo Djokovic odds are in the toilet. I would take Ruud, Alcaraz, Medvedev, and maybe even Sinner or Rune over him right now. Given this draw and his awful form.
Until Djokovic demonstrates that he’s capable of playing clay tennis at above a top 20 level this season, I remain pessimistic
This was his worst clay season by miles
Literally not even one truly good set you could point to, let alone match, let alone tournament
It's amazing that anyone is still saying that Djokovic is the favourite.
Djokovic has been absolute garbage and dealing with an elbow injury this clay season by the way.
I’m not saying he can’t win but this is NOT the old Djokovic by any stretch of the imagination. Last 3 years Djokovic would be the favorite. This year’s? Hardly
Fokina the big favourite coming into this one. Looked indomitable this tournament and has beaten Novak on clay recently. Dead conditions will really benefit his defensive game and the live arm he has.
Only question: is he up to the task mentally? He regularly chokes ends of sets. Djokovic will win if he is not at his sharpest between the ears.
Djokovic is not winning Roland Garros.
That much, if nothing else, should be abundantly clear.
Djokovic is the only “scary” player in the draw and that’s mainly nostalgia. He has been truly horrific all clay season, easily the worst clay season of his entire career going back to 2005 (even 2017/18 was better).
Lol. Yeah nice stuff from the ‘GOAT’
Carlos in 4. Yes, get ready for it, this Djokovic level is not enough. Stop being delusional.
And anyone who bet against Djokovic to win RG is going to get their money's worth... and then some.
Djokovic needs to start skipping clay Fed-style. This is getting embarrassing.
Totally dismantled by a younger, better, stronger opponent. And Rune is basically just keeping the ball in play...
It really is hard to see anyone having a chance vs. this Carlos. I say that with all due respect to Djokovic - what he ONCE was could handle Carlos just fine, but what he is NOW… I don’t see it.
then I asked for apologies:Lol being battered by Khachanov and people think he has a chance at beating Raz. Some even say he’s the favorite.
This place is in for a very very rude awakening on Friday. And honestly, all of you deserve it.
I’ll take my apologies now.
Fokina dominating any rally above 4 shots. Up an early break and thoroughly dominating the match. Mostly in control once the rally begins. 4/4 at net on drop shots as well. Overpowering Djokovic on both wings.
But no, “just a NextGen mug” and “Djokovic is unbeatable”. “Kralingen doesn’t know tennis”
I would like a mass apology from everyone who said Djokovic was the favorite for Roland Garros.
Will not be coming, of course.
We also could’ve seen this last Friday had Fokina not had multiple brain aneurysms when ahead in the first two sets… but Djokovic’s flawed level was plain as day to anyone who wanted to see it.
To your point, I think the reason is that we all know that someone has a clear form advantage and clear physical (power, speed, explosiveness) advantage.
That’s why it would be so disappointing if Carlos failed and lost. Not even because of numerical age but because of visible age. He will look like a different stratosphere of athleticism and power output next to Djokovic on Friday. If he loses I can only assume it will be by erroring himself out of the match, duffing a bunch of drop shots, allowing himself to be outsmarted and getting frustrated by the older player.
In short, it will be an avoidable loss. And it will appear very avoidable as if he’s playing well below par, to the watching eye, if he loses.
That’s why it would be embarrassing.
And finally, the worst post I've ever made, ROFLMAO.Hahaha. What can you do against him man.
I think he will make Djokovic look extremely ordinary and old in stretches.
Stop. The. Handwringing.
This will be my final post on the subject until someone lays out a detailed step by step plan for what Djokovic can even do to try to beat Carlos. How will he win points? I have yet to hear anything coherent.
I watched their games closely and there is only one winner once the ball is in play. Novak’s serve/return advantage is formidable on HC/grass but not here. It’s much harder to rush Carlos on this surface. And even their normal rally ball - Carlos has a huge weight of shot and ability to inject pace, he can put Novak on the back foot the same way Khachanov did. Add to that better defense, better aggression, better volleys, better drop shots…
I have zero clue how Carlos loses this match short of a complete mental capitulation.
I feel even more confident in Carlos than I did in Nadal last year, and have staked even more money to boot.
So, clearly I got it wrong this Roland Garros. Obviously, no one saw the cramping coming from Carlos, including myself. But truthfully, I would pick Carlos again for RG 2024.
And the reason is, everything Djokovic did this past fortnight defied what we knew about clay tennis coming into the tournament.
-I thought Masters and lead-up tournaments mattered. Before 2022, every single Roland Garros winner in the 2000s had at least won a clay Masters 1000 or a clay 250/500 before winning Roland Garros. Djokovic didn't even make a single semi-final.
-I thought age and injury mattered - Novak was struggling with an elbow injury clearly in April/May, and his age and stamina were in question
-I thought Carlos's form mattered, Novak flattered to deceive vs. Fokina and Khachanov while Carlos was incredibly dominant, beating Musetti and Tsitsipas one-sidedly
-I thought Carlos had the physical advantage with his experience of 4 5-setters at the US Open last summer
-I thought Novak's clay form in every single match before the SF mattered even one bit.
The truth is, in this era, none of the lead-up stuff matters. Just who can elevate on the biggest stage. And right now, that man is still none other than Novak Djokovic. His spot serving, his ability to read, absorb, and inject pace and spin, his ability to vary his intensity, his tactical solutions on-court, his clutch play, his strategy and mind for tennis still allow him to win even without his old athleticism. I thought he had declined a lot, but ignored that he has never thought through matches better, never hit a serve better, he truly just gets it in a way that can't really be quantified.
So apologies - mainly to @TennisFan3 and @Checkmate for showing me the way. For 2023 at least, Novak is the man of the moment, and the man to beat. Wimbledon here we come.
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