I hadn't got much time to write since the final but taking out to pour my thoughts. TTW being TTW has talked about almost every thing except actually analyzing couple of key aspects of the match
Djokovic and high balls as rhythm breaker :
Ages ago, Djokovic had a frustrating and an almost funny match with Monfils at USO(USO 2016?). Gael after going 2-0 down decided to feed him random high bouncing no pace balls and it really messed with Djokovic for a long stretch of the match drawing errors on what balls that you would expect Djokovic to hit winners on.
Now, coming to this year's RG Final. Ruud judiciously used high bouncing less attackable heavy balls to draw errors and make Djokovic uncomfortable from the get go. He ended up winning the first.
Cut to midway through the WB F. The match was tied at 1-1 and Alcaraz starts to mix this strategy in his strategy to absolute perfection. It is amped up by his FH and it really hinders Djokovic's comfort level in the rallies and somewhere contributes to multiple errors swinging the match his way, Djokovic's legs didn't have the spring to deal with it after 3-4 heavy blows before them. A very very underrated aspect, a huge credit to Ferrero for learning it and knowing the extent to which it should be used.
Alcaraz and not giving Djokovic space on returns
One thing I noticed was hoe Alcaraz chose to keep it central on service at times when he is usually better off angles. There were not exactly bucket load of body serves but it felt he was ensuring that Djokovic doesn't get a lot of room to work with. Djokovic stretched has a tendency of hitting bigger returns. Alcaraz tried not to give too many angles for Djokovic to work with on return.
Alcaraz and Blocked/get a racquet on it Returns :
One key theme I noticed was Alcaraz's decision to strike the right balance between going big for the return and getting the balls in. He didn't try to do it big. One big conundrum on grass is, given the advantage to server, do you try to get a big return in on a serve in your strike zone or do you just try to get the ball back and hope the server doesn't take full control on first strike?
What Alcaraz did was to get most of Djokovic's serve back post 1st set. He didn't try to go for extra ordinary returns,his main thought process was reminiscent of Nadal : get the ball back, be ready to run like hell to get the rally to neutrality and then he will see.
Alcaraz's strategy seemed to get the racquet on the ball and get the serve back.
But he excelled beyond regularity here too : once he got the read of Djokovic serve around 3rd set, even though these returns weren't toe touching like Novak's, they started to be returned with interest.
Novak's main issue after 1st set was playing lots of rallies on his serve courtesy little free points. While one can point at his 1st serve percentage, his first serve points won never even touched Alcaraz's after 1st set, despite having the much better first serve.
Which brings me to :
Alcaraz's advantage over Novak on ground :
Stats have Alcaraz ahead on points won by rally length. But I firmly believe they do not do justice. Where Alcaraz is really hurting Novak is from ground. If that was visible in RG , I think that was even more important in WB F. What is truly hurting Djokovic in this match up is, that he doesn't get control initially easily it has to come off a good serve or a risky big hit and even if he does do it, Alcaraz's speed resets it.
That might sound like trademark Nadal special, but there's a subtlety to it : Nadal after reseting the rally mostly try to wrench control away, with Alcaraz, the aggression factor is higher. Djokovic doesn't get to press back the advantage for next 3 shots.
And Alcaraz's aggression is well developed too, he has the tools and he took s leaflet out of Stan's approach against Novak. In many rallies he was hitting consistent Heavy balls but not going for too much. Well within margins.
For Djokovic, it's stupendously problematic to deal with defense, flashes of randomness and controlled aggression.
Despite all of this ,
Novak is not only very much in the rivalry, he can beat Carlos much more than what People are suggesting here .
Key point people are forgetting is serve return complex. Carlos' serve was rock solid but again, it seemed Djokovic hadn't adapted to it. Moreover it was grass.
What people are missing out on is, Carlos's serve is decently attackable. Others hae done so Djokovic will have his team decipher it's patterns.
Alcaraz's serving points won numbers were pretty high for this match. He won't serve everyday like that day. 1st serve won percentage won't remain going into non grass surface.
Djokovic's serve, his return and his mind set can always pick up on a HC.
--becoming too long will write another.
