Jack the Hack
Hall of Fame
Grass is such a rare surface on the pro tour, it is hard to see trends based on previous results. However, I have put together a list of the top 10 players (based on current Entry List rankings), their previous grass results, and their bookmaker odds (according to betdirect.com). Also, in italics, I have added my personal comments. Here you go:
Roger Federer: 43-12 lifetime grass record, 24-0 since 2003, two-time defending Wimbledon champion. 4/6 Odds.
With a good serve, excellent all-court game, and consistant return, Federer is the perfect player for grass. Still stung by his loss at the French Open, he will likely be looking for revenge… and the opportunity to show he is still the boss.
Lleyton Hewitt: 61-15 lifetime grass record, 12-4 since 2003, 2002 Wimbledon champion. 7/1 Odds.
Hewitt is an excellent competitor on grass, as his lifetime record on the surface and Wimbledon championship show. However, the extent of his rib injury and his focus since learning he is to become a father raise serious questions about whether he will be ready to contend for Wimbledon this year.
Rafael Nadal: 2-1 lifetime grass record (3rd round of ’03 Wimbledon) 10/1 Odds
Obviously, after winning 4 tournaments in a row including his first Grand Slam, Nadal has got to be very confident. However, his extreme grips and penchant for playing deep in the backcourt would seem to be a heavy liability on grass. All of Nadal’s tournament wins have been on clay, but at least he has an excellent attitude about playing Wimbledon - unlike other dirt ballers of the past, like Muster, Costa, and Bruguera (who skipped Wimbledon after winning the French). Nadal is an excellent athlete, and his speed and defensive capabilities are too good for him not to win a few rounds. However, he is not ready to contend at Wimbledon this year.
Andy Roddick: 30-7 lifetime grass record, 21-2 since 2003, 2004 Wimbledon finalist. 6/1 Odds.
Other than his return of serve, Roddick has an excellent game on grass. His huge serve, forehand, and newfound aggressiveness at the net should help him live up to at least his top 4 seeding.
Marat Safin: 9-10 lifetime grass record, 0-2 since 2003, 2001 Wimbledon quarterfinalist. 25/1 Odds.
With his huge serve, strong return, and quick hands, it would seem like Safin should make it to the second week at Wimbledon. However, other than a quarterfinal run in ’01, his results have been pretty unspectacular on grass. A good draw and good attitude could help him advance, but it would be an upset if he won.
Andre Agassi: 48-16 lifetime grass record, 6-3 since 2003, Wimbledon champ in ’92. 66/1 Odds.
Andre still has the return of serve and quickness to compete well at Wimbledon. However, his recent back issues are very troublesome… how has he recovered since the French disappointment? If he is healthy and gets a good draw, he has an outside chance… and that’s what is seemingly keeping him around the game still.
Nikolay Davydenko: 0-7 lifetime record on grass. No bookmaker odds (worse than a 250/1 chance).
Davydenko has been playing well enough to get into the top 10, but it would be an accomplishment just to win his first career match on grass!
Guillermo Canas: 16-12 lifetime grass record, 1-2 since 2003. 200/1 Odds.
Canas made the finals of a grass court tournament in the Netherlands back in ’01. However, that seems to have been a fluke. He could win a couple matches, but will not be around by the second week.
Tim Henman: 82-31 lifetime record on grass, 11-3 since 2003. 12/1 Odds.
Henman has made the semifinals several times, and with a good draw, could get there again. He has a good grass court game, but would need a lot of luck to win. A sentimental favorite if he ever got to the final.
Joachim Johansson: 7-5 lifetime record on grass, all since 2003. 25/1 Odds.
Johansson has an enormous serve that could propel him to the 4th round like last year. However, there are holes in his game – most notably the backhand, volley, and return of serve – that would keep him from being a serious contender. Also, he withdrew from the French Open with an elbow injury, so his health is remains questionable.
Notable Dark Horses
David Nalbandian: 9-3 lifetime grass record, 3-1 since 2003, ’02 Wimbledon finalist. 33/1 Odds
Nalbandian has a game similar to Hewitt and can play well. However, he has been inconsistant this year and has been dealing with the death of his father. He could make a run into the second week with a good draw, but it is not likely.
Sebastian Grosjean: 35-15 lifetime record on grass, 19-5 since 2003, two time Wimbledon semifinalist. 50-1 Odds.
Grosjean is ranked 21st, but has made the semifinals of the past two Wimbledons. Like Nalbandian, he has a game similar to Hewitt. With another good draw, he could make it into the second week again, but it’s hard to see him winning it.
Mario Ancic: 16-10 lifetime record on grass, 12-7 since 2003, surprising Wimbledon semifinalist last year. 14-1 Odds.
Ancic was beaten in the 1st round of Wimbledon in ’03 by a 17 year old Rafael Nadal, but surprisingly made the semifinals last year. He has a nice game for grass, but I think his odds are set way too high. He will need a good draw to repeat a second week run this year.
Richard Gasquet: 0-3 lifetime record on grass. No bookmaker odds (worse than a 250/1 chance).
I included Gasquet because he is a talented up and comer with a game similar to Federer, and several people in this forum are fans. Gasquet had yet to make it past the 1st round in a Grand Slam before he finally made it to the 3rd round at the French this year. I would expect him to win a match or two at Wimbledon this year, but do not expect him to reach the second week or be a contender this year.
I think there are only a handful of players that are capable of winning this year… and Federer and Roddick stand out the most. I am looking forward to the tune-up events to see what kind of form Hewitt and Johansson are in after their injuries (and Agassi, if he plays in one). Also, it should be interesting to see how Nadal fares on grass.
Now that you've seen the breakdown... discuss!
Roger Federer: 43-12 lifetime grass record, 24-0 since 2003, two-time defending Wimbledon champion. 4/6 Odds.
With a good serve, excellent all-court game, and consistant return, Federer is the perfect player for grass. Still stung by his loss at the French Open, he will likely be looking for revenge… and the opportunity to show he is still the boss.
Lleyton Hewitt: 61-15 lifetime grass record, 12-4 since 2003, 2002 Wimbledon champion. 7/1 Odds.
Hewitt is an excellent competitor on grass, as his lifetime record on the surface and Wimbledon championship show. However, the extent of his rib injury and his focus since learning he is to become a father raise serious questions about whether he will be ready to contend for Wimbledon this year.
Rafael Nadal: 2-1 lifetime grass record (3rd round of ’03 Wimbledon) 10/1 Odds
Obviously, after winning 4 tournaments in a row including his first Grand Slam, Nadal has got to be very confident. However, his extreme grips and penchant for playing deep in the backcourt would seem to be a heavy liability on grass. All of Nadal’s tournament wins have been on clay, but at least he has an excellent attitude about playing Wimbledon - unlike other dirt ballers of the past, like Muster, Costa, and Bruguera (who skipped Wimbledon after winning the French). Nadal is an excellent athlete, and his speed and defensive capabilities are too good for him not to win a few rounds. However, he is not ready to contend at Wimbledon this year.
Andy Roddick: 30-7 lifetime grass record, 21-2 since 2003, 2004 Wimbledon finalist. 6/1 Odds.
Other than his return of serve, Roddick has an excellent game on grass. His huge serve, forehand, and newfound aggressiveness at the net should help him live up to at least his top 4 seeding.
Marat Safin: 9-10 lifetime grass record, 0-2 since 2003, 2001 Wimbledon quarterfinalist. 25/1 Odds.
With his huge serve, strong return, and quick hands, it would seem like Safin should make it to the second week at Wimbledon. However, other than a quarterfinal run in ’01, his results have been pretty unspectacular on grass. A good draw and good attitude could help him advance, but it would be an upset if he won.
Andre Agassi: 48-16 lifetime grass record, 6-3 since 2003, Wimbledon champ in ’92. 66/1 Odds.
Andre still has the return of serve and quickness to compete well at Wimbledon. However, his recent back issues are very troublesome… how has he recovered since the French disappointment? If he is healthy and gets a good draw, he has an outside chance… and that’s what is seemingly keeping him around the game still.
Nikolay Davydenko: 0-7 lifetime record on grass. No bookmaker odds (worse than a 250/1 chance).
Davydenko has been playing well enough to get into the top 10, but it would be an accomplishment just to win his first career match on grass!
Guillermo Canas: 16-12 lifetime grass record, 1-2 since 2003. 200/1 Odds.
Canas made the finals of a grass court tournament in the Netherlands back in ’01. However, that seems to have been a fluke. He could win a couple matches, but will not be around by the second week.
Tim Henman: 82-31 lifetime record on grass, 11-3 since 2003. 12/1 Odds.
Henman has made the semifinals several times, and with a good draw, could get there again. He has a good grass court game, but would need a lot of luck to win. A sentimental favorite if he ever got to the final.
Joachim Johansson: 7-5 lifetime record on grass, all since 2003. 25/1 Odds.
Johansson has an enormous serve that could propel him to the 4th round like last year. However, there are holes in his game – most notably the backhand, volley, and return of serve – that would keep him from being a serious contender. Also, he withdrew from the French Open with an elbow injury, so his health is remains questionable.
Notable Dark Horses
David Nalbandian: 9-3 lifetime grass record, 3-1 since 2003, ’02 Wimbledon finalist. 33/1 Odds
Nalbandian has a game similar to Hewitt and can play well. However, he has been inconsistant this year and has been dealing with the death of his father. He could make a run into the second week with a good draw, but it is not likely.
Sebastian Grosjean: 35-15 lifetime record on grass, 19-5 since 2003, two time Wimbledon semifinalist. 50-1 Odds.
Grosjean is ranked 21st, but has made the semifinals of the past two Wimbledons. Like Nalbandian, he has a game similar to Hewitt. With another good draw, he could make it into the second week again, but it’s hard to see him winning it.
Mario Ancic: 16-10 lifetime record on grass, 12-7 since 2003, surprising Wimbledon semifinalist last year. 14-1 Odds.
Ancic was beaten in the 1st round of Wimbledon in ’03 by a 17 year old Rafael Nadal, but surprisingly made the semifinals last year. He has a nice game for grass, but I think his odds are set way too high. He will need a good draw to repeat a second week run this year.
Richard Gasquet: 0-3 lifetime record on grass. No bookmaker odds (worse than a 250/1 chance).
I included Gasquet because he is a talented up and comer with a game similar to Federer, and several people in this forum are fans. Gasquet had yet to make it past the 1st round in a Grand Slam before he finally made it to the 3rd round at the French this year. I would expect him to win a match or two at Wimbledon this year, but do not expect him to reach the second week or be a contender this year.
I think there are only a handful of players that are capable of winning this year… and Federer and Roddick stand out the most. I am looking forward to the tune-up events to see what kind of form Hewitt and Johansson are in after their injuries (and Agassi, if he plays in one). Also, it should be interesting to see how Nadal fares on grass.
Now that you've seen the breakdown... discuss!
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