Andy Roddick: US Open Breakdown

Qubax

Professional
Roddick has been rolling this week at Winston-Salem. So far he is 6 sets up 6 set down to the tune of:

6-2, 6-4, 6-1, 6-3, 6-1, 6-4

Being ranked 21st, and injured much of the summer(and year really) Roddick is flying way under the radar.

As a huge Roddick fan, I am doing what any huge fan does. Getting ahead of myself based on 3 matches against pretty poor competition.

So, here's how I breakdown Roddick's US Open 2011 Chances:

EDIT: Roddick Flames out to Isner 6-7(7-9), 4-6 at Winston Salem. US Open ahead

Round 1:

Roddick vs Russell. Roddick about a 97/3 Favorite here. Roddick can actually outhit Russell off the ground, and that is pretty rare these days. Roddick can serve, and pusher his way to a 7-5,6-4,6-3 win. If Andy brings ANYTHING extra to the table he wins even easier.

I am not trying to underrate Russell here, but he just doesn't have enough game to hurt Roddick, even if he does make Andy run down a few extra balls. Realistically he'll just help Andy find a groove on the court, get in a rhythm and set him up for Round 2.

Russell has a 3% chance of winning and probably only a 5% chance of taking a set.

Round 2:

Roddick vs Sock/Gicquel. Umm, yah. Slam dunk. Gicquel could put up more resistance then Sock, but still not much. Considering I could see a Gicquel vs Russell matchup as a toss up, you can imagine I don't like MG chances here.

Round 3:

Roddick vs Istomin/Benneteau/Almagro.

The most dangerous to Andy IMO is Almagro. ..and he has been his usual Monfils/Verdasco-esque inconsistent self lately. Can't see any of these three beating Andy 3 out of 5. And if Roddick has anything going for him it is that he'll keep fighting and use his experience. The whole It's not his first dog fight schtick, etc,.

So while Almagro(like most Top 100 players) has more weapons then Andy, he's not likely to fight and remain consistent enough - to hold serve time after time for 5 sets - when Roddick is invariably holding with ease.


Round 4:

Roddick vs Ferrer.

If Roddick is playing anyone other then Ferrer I think he wins pretty easy. Andreev can catch lightning in a bottle, but unlikely. I favour Roddick 60/40 in this matchup, especially if he is 9 sets up and 9 sets down coming in. Roddick will be ready for a war, and will ride his competitve nature and big serve to a tough 3 or 4 set victory. Don't get me wrong, this is still only 60/40....but in favour of Roddick so....onto the QF's.

Quarter Finals:

Roddick vs Nadal.

If Roddick faces Nalby, Ljub, Youhz he's probably onto the SF's. Especially because if Roddick is in the QF's he is probably relatively "in form."

As poor as his form may be.

If Roddick faces Nadal, which is still very likely, then Rafa is a pretty sizable favorite. BUT, this is a good surface for Andy, a relatively poor one for Rafa, and it's NOT Rafa's time of year. Andy would be in with a chance being a 35/65 underdog. Rafa's physical condition being the real advantage Andy would be praying for. So yah, the run probably ends hear in the QF's. But he's in with a chance to go atleast this deep.

Semi-Finals:

Roddick vs Murray.

I think Roddick IMO is a huge underdog here. Murray is just too good for him at this point and is my favorite for the tournament. However if Andy faces; Delpo, Isner, Sod, Wawrinka, Simon, he'd be in with(more then) half a chance. Against the better Andy, I think Roddick fights hard with his serve, doesn't pack it in, but is ultimately ruthlessly outclassed. Murray may wet his pants in a Major Final against Fed, but I don't think he's too scared of the American Andy.

Finals:

Roddick vs Fed/Djoko/Tsonga.

Roddick IMO in the best case scenario still probably loses to Murray in the SF's. If Roddick doesn't play Rafa in the QF's or beats Nadal, and Murray isn't in the Semis, then maybe Roddick gets to the final. A final he would most assuredly lose to any of Fed/Djoko/Tsonga IMO.

So there is a thorough Roddick US Open breakdown. Flame away.
 
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Roddick will lose in the round of 16 to Ferrer if he is lucky. Most likely he is out in the 2nd or 3rd round IMO.
 
Whether you love him or hate him. Chime in!

I'll update this thread, and follow it as we go.
 
Roddick will lose in the round of 16 to Ferrer if he is lucky. Most likely he is out in the 2nd or 3rd round IMO.

Fair enough.

but who of Giquel, Sock, Benneteau, Almagro, Istomin is going to beat him?

It's so in vogue because Roddick is an ass on the court and has an ugly(one dimensional) game to assume he'll lose early and write him off. Not to mention his year has been a very poor one. However he could win his 2nd title of the year this week.

History is as in favour of Roddick going to the Quarters then it is in Andy losing in the 2nd round.
 
Fair enough.

but who of Giquel, Sock, Benneteau, Almagro, Istomin is going to beat him?

Look at some of the players he has lost to this year, and even who he has lost to at the U.S Open in recent years. Almagro will probably beat him if they play. Roddick isnt high enough ranked that Almagro will remember to choke. Benneteau and Giquel could beat him as well.
 
I have a soft spot for Andy but these days in the slams he ends up losing to people you would assume he beats. Anyway if he's playing well I see him losing to Ferrer in the 4th round (if Ferrer is in good shape).

Sincere question: when is the last time Roddick made a GS QF?
 
I have a soft spot for Andy but these days in the slams he ends up losing to people you would assume he beats. Anyway if he's playing well I see him losing to Ferrer in the 4th round (if Ferrer is in good shape).

Sincere question: when is the last time Roddick made a GS QF?
2010 Australian Open, also last time Fed won a slam...
 
Also in 09 Roddick got to the Semis of the Australian Open and ofcourse the Finals of SW19.

Fact is, Roddick has made atleast on "F" as defined by QF, SF, or F of a slam every year since 2003.

He needs a QF at the US Open this year to keep that streak alive
 
He is playing well.. but let's see what happens with Isner tomorrow, considering he has had a great hardcourt season.

No doubt Andy would be happy with beating Almagro and getting into the Round of 16. His draw is favorable etc; however, Fish had an amazing season and most don't expect him to go further than the QFs so kinda hard to think Andy would do better.
 
Almagro could take him out if he gets hot and Andy is pushing back his returns and ground strokes, but if he gets by that I don't see him beating Ferrer, of course who knows, Ferrer goes down earlier, Roddick gets hot, anything is possible. If somehow he got to the final and played Tsonga, I would love his chances.
 
Roddick Redux

First round offers Michael Russell, oh my!
He's just thankful he didn't have to qualify.
Second round: Yeah, I don't know who they are.
They might as well head straight for the bar.
Nicolas Almagro may beat you on clay,
but he certainly won't beat you this day.
It will be a fourth-round, five-set scare,
but you'll get your revenge on David Ferrer.
Then the universe finally hears your pleas,
and Nadal, mid-match, loses his knees.
Now you'd expect the other Andy to pound,
but Mr. Murray crashed out in the first round.
So, it's onto the finals and someone got his wish,
and you will console your dear friend Mardy Fish.
 
Or Andy could choke again and lose early. Now Andy has said if he wins the Winstom-Salem, everything changes and he feels very optimistic about the US open.

but Does it really ?? Andy is playing Isner in the Semis and if he gets by him, then possibly Robin Haase or Benneteau in the Final. Does it really change anything even if Andy wins Winstom-salem ????????????
 
Roddick Redux

First round offers Michael Russell, oh my!
He's just thankful he didn't have to qualify.
Second round: Yeah, I don't know who they are.
They might as well head straight for the bar.
Nicolas Almagro may beat you on clay,
but he certainly won't beat you this day.
It will be a fourth-round, five-set scare,
but you'll get your revenge on David Ferrer.
Then the universe finally hears your pleas,
and Nadal, mid-match, loses his knees.
Now you'd expect the other Andy to pound,
but Mr. Murray crashed out in the first round.
So, it's onto the finals and someone got his wish,
and you will console your dear friend Mardy Fish.

Hey, thats quite nice! It flows and it's pretty funny too! Lol at the last two punches..
 
Look at some of the players he has lost to this year, and even who he has lost to at the U.S Open in recent years. Almagro will probably beat him if they play. Roddick isnt high enough ranked that Almagro will remember to choke. Benneteau and Giquel could beat him as well.

i strongly disagree

roddick is showing good results again in winston salem. he had a few first round losses before because of bad play choking etc. but imo this was only because he didnt have much match practise for months. now it looks like hes improving again and getting confidence

in addition it seems like roddick is hungry. also his draw is RLY good. i see him having good chances to go deep in the us open.
 
i strongly disagree

roddick is showing good results again in winston salem. he had a few first round losses before because of bad play choking etc. but imo this was only because he didnt have much match practise for months. now it looks like hes improving again and getting confidence

in addition it seems like roddick is hungry. also his draw is RLY good. i see him having good chances to go deep in the us open.

He made a mince meat out of Juan Monaco. so he should do the same to Almagro. similar type of player, almagro has little better serve but otherwise both clay court guys.
 
I too think people are underrating Ferrer. Andy's got a shot at the QF no doubt but Ferrer is #5 and should definitely be the favorite.
 
The sentiments about Roddick being an underdog to Ferrer are probably fair.

Ferrer has a great 2nd serve return, and besides cardio for days, David(like most players) is bigger and better off the ground.

I am undoubedtly giving Andy a little benefit of the doubt by making him a 60/40 favorite. However if Andy can win Winston-Salem and maybe more importantly if he can get some straight set victories under his belt coming in against Ferrer then I think Roddick can do it.

They are about the same age, and Roddick has had the better career....and if Roddick get's to play Ferrer then he is probably peaking for his season.
 
He arrives.
He loses early making snotty comments to the umpire in a typical brat fashion.
He leaves.
 
Roddick has been rolling this week at Winston-Salem. So far he is 6 sets up 6 set down to the tune of:

6-2, 6-4, 6-1, 6-3, 6-1, 6-4

Being ranked 21st, and injured much of the summer(and year really) Roddick is flying way under the radar.

As a huge Roddick fan, I am doing what any huge fan does. Getting ahead of myself based on 3 matches against pretty poor competition.

So, here's how I breakdown Roddick's US Open 2011 Chances:

Round 1:

Roddick vs Russell. Roddick about a 97/3 Favorite here. Roddick can actually outhit Russell off the ground, and that is pretty rare these days. Roddick can serve, and pusher his way to a 7-5,6-4,6-3 win. If Andy brings ANYTHING extra to the table he wins even easier.

I am not trying to underrate Russell here, but he just doesn't have enough game to hurt Roddick, even if he does make Andy run down a few extra balls. Realistically he'll just help Andy find a groove on the court, get in a rhythm and set him up for Round 2.

Russell has a 3% chance of winning and probably only a 5% chance of taking a set.

Round 2:

Roddick vs Sock/Gicquel. Umm, yah. Slam dunk. Gicquel could put up more resistance then Sock, but still not much. Considering I could see a Gicquel vs Russell matchup as a toss up, you can imagine I don't like MG chances here.

Round 3:

Roddick vs Istomin/Benneteau/Almagro.

The most dangerous to Andy IMO is Almagro. ..and he has been his usual Monfils/Verdasco-esque inconsistent self lately. Can't see any of these three beating Andy 3 out of 5. And if Roddick has anything going for him it is that he'll keep fighting and use his experience. The whole It's not his first dog fight schtick, etc,.

So while Almagro(like most Top 100 players) has more weapons then Andy, he's not likely to fight and remain consistent enough - to hold serve time after time for 5 sets - when Roddick is invariably holding with ease.


Round 4:

Roddick vs Ferrer.

If Roddick is playing anyone other then Ferrer I think he wins pretty easy. Andreev can catch lightning in a bottle, but unlikely. I favour Roddick 60/40 in this matchup, especially if he is 9 sets up and 9 sets down coming in. Roddick will be ready for a war, and will ride his competitve nature and big serve to a tough 3 or 4 set victory. Don't get me wrong, this is still only 60/40....but in favour of Roddick so....onto the QF's.

Quarter Finals:

Roddick vs Nadal.

If Roddick faces Nalby, Ljub, Youhz he's probably onto the SF's. Especially because if Roddick is in the QF's he is probably relatively "in form."

As poor as his form may be.

If Roddick faces Nadal, which is still very likely, then Rafa is a pretty sizable favorite. BUT, this is a good surface for Andy, a relatively poor one for Rafa, and it's NOT Rafa's time of year. Andy would be in with a chance being a 35/65 underdog. Rafa's physical condition being the real advantage Andy would be praying for. So yah, the run probably ends hear in the QF's. But he's in with a chance to go atleast this deep.

Semi-Finals:

Roddick vs Murray.

I think Roddick IMO is a huge underdog here. Murray is just too good for him at this point and is my favorite for the tournament. However if Andy faces; Delpo, Isner, Sod, Wawrinka, Simon, he'd be in with(more then) half a chance. Against the better Andy, I think Roddick fights hard with his serve, doesn't pack it in, but is ultimately ruthlessly outclassed. Murray may wet his pants in a Major Final against Fed, but I don't think he's too scared of the American Andy.

Finals:

Roddick vs Fed/Djoko/Tsonga.

Roddick IMO in the best case scenario still probably loses to Murray in the SF's. If Roddick doesn't play Rafa in the QF's or beats Nadal, and Murray isn't in the Semis, then maybe Roddick gets to the final. A final he would most assuredly lose to any of Fed/Djoko/Tsonga IMO.

So there is a thorough Roddick US Open breakdown. Flame away.

Decent analysis mate. I like Roddick a lot (yes, he can be an arse but can't we all) - would love to see him do well in the USO.
 
Well Roddick out of Winston Salem. I only caught the last couple of games on a live feed. But didn't look too encouraging.

Mind you, Isner would probably get to Ferrer if he was in Roddick's slot of the draw....so maybe Andy can still get that far and then we'll see.
 
I think Roccick is pretty lucky with his draw the first 2 rounds. I think he'll need to play better than he has for most of this year (Memphis excepted) just to get by Almagro in the 3rd round.
 
4th round will be when Roddick loses to Ferrer. Don't even bother predicting past then. He has an easy first two rounds, and if he plays Almagro it won't be an easy match.
 
I understand that you're a fan of Roddick, but you really shouldn't get your hopes up. Roddick isn't the player he once was.
 
He arrives.
He loses early making snotty comments to the umpire in a typical brat fashion.
He leaves.

Don't forget, "he continues to slam said official in subsequent press conferences with no trace of sympathy or humility."

Nevertheless, his racquet smashing, umpire bashing and other assorted antics will be as inevitable as they are entertaining like always as he crumbles in three sets to clay court specialist Almagro.
 
I understand that you're a fan of Roddick, but you really shouldn't get your hopes up. Roddick isn't the player he once was.

I am aware that he isn't the player he once was.

and as my signature suggests, I know that he generally blows.

But, I just think he has a decent chance to get to Ferrer, and then roughly a coin flip to get through Ferrer.

The fact is Ferrer is going to resemble Monaco, a LOT more then he does Isner.

Roddick is probably incapable of defeating any of the Top 4 in form, and the best player he could defeat(rankings wise) is Ferrer...under the right conditions.

Ferrer has been battling a wrist injury, and the summer can be a grind. If Roddick can get up to match speed and rhythm then he should alteast have plenty in the tank.
 
Blake beats Ferrer R2, some loser R3, Roddick in R4, Nadal in QF, Murray in SF, and takes down Djoker in 5 in the finals to take home the trophy.
 
He should beat almagro and has a good chance with ferrer. But knowing that, he'll probably lose to almagro. When was the last time he lost in a slam to a higher ranked player instead of bombing out early? 09?
 
He should beat almagro and has a good chance with ferrer. But knowing that, he'll probably lose to almagro. When was the last time he lost in a slam to a higher ranked player instead of bombing out early? 09?

Well I think your right about that. Roddick is almost always losing to guys ranked lower then him.

For a time this was a credit to Roddick's high ranking. But now that he's coming into the open as the #21 seed, losing to either Almagro #10 or Ferrer #5 will be an example of losing to a higher ranked seed.
 
I agree with everything except I think it's 50/50 against Ferrer and 25-30/75-70 against Nadal.

Yah, I mean, I could probably be talked into those numbers.

Really a totally healthy Ferrer or Nadal probably skews things even further away from Andy in both matchups.

But for Andy to be in the Round of 16 or QF's he's going to up to match speed, and yet not worn out. And between Ferrer's wrist injury and Nadal definetly at risk of being tuckered out, I can imagine that Andy could find his match play mojo as those two are a bit bewildered at the end of a long summer.

Anyway 50/50 and 25-30/75-70 are still very reasonable numbers.
 
Yah, I mean, I could probably be talked into those numbers.

Really a totally healthy Ferrer or Nadal probably skews things even further away from Andy in both matchups.

But for Andy to be in the Round of 16 or QF's he's going to up to match speed, and yet not worn out. And between Ferrer's wrist injury and Nadal definetly at risk of being tuckered out, I can imagine that Andy could find his match play mojo as those two are a bit bewildered at the end of a long summer.

Anyway 50/50 and 25-30/75-70 are still very reasonable numbers.


I actually think that Andy could take advantage of Nadal's poor form if they play each other. His ground game won't get it done against Nadal,but his serve more than gives him a shot at the upset. You never know.
 
I actually think that Andy could take advantage of Nadal's poor form if they play each other. His ground game won't get it done against Nadal,but his serve more than gives him a shot at the upset. You never know.

Nadal is one of the top 3 returners on tour...
 
I agree with everything except I think it's 50/50 against Ferrer and 25-30/75-70 against Nadal.

I respectfully disagree. I think Roddick's chances are slightly overstated here. Personally, I would only give Roddick a 30% chance (at best) of beating Ferrer if they both make it to the Quarterfinals. I think the recent losses to Ferrer, Lopez, Kohlschreiber, and Isner will really affect Andy's confidence going into the match. But, you never know, every day is a new day ...
 
Roddick has been rolling this week at Winston-Salem. So far he is 6 sets up 6 set down to the tune of:

6-2, 6-4, 6-1, 6-3, 6-1, 6-4

Being ranked 21st, and injured much of the summer(and year really) Roddick is flying way under the radar.

As a huge Roddick fan, I am doing what any huge fan does. Getting ahead of myself based on 3 matches against pretty poor competition.

So, here's how I breakdown Roddick's US Open 2011 Chances:

EDIT: Roddick Flames out to Isner 6-7(7-9), 4-6 at Winston Salem. US Open ahead

Round 1:

Roddick vs Russell. Roddick about a 97/3 Favorite here. Roddick can actually outhit Russell off the ground, and that is pretty rare these days. Roddick can serve, and pusher his way to a 7-5,6-4,6-3 win. If Andy brings ANYTHING extra to the table he wins even easier.

I am not trying to underrate Russell here, but he just doesn't have enough game to hurt Roddick, even if he does make Andy run down a few extra balls. Realistically he'll just help Andy find a groove on the court, get in a rhythm and set him up for Round 2.

Russell has a 3% chance of winning and probably only a 5% chance of taking a set.

Round 2:

Roddick vs Sock/Gicquel. Umm, yah. Slam dunk. Gicquel could put up more resistance then Sock, but still not much. Considering I could see a Gicquel vs Russell matchup as a toss up, you can imagine I don't like MG chances here.

Round 3:

Roddick vs Istomin/Benneteau/Almagro.

The most dangerous to Andy IMO is Almagro. ..and he has been his usual Monfils/Verdasco-esque inconsistent self lately. Can't see any of these three beating Andy 3 out of 5. And if Roddick has anything going for him it is that he'll keep fighting and use his experience. The whole It's not his first dog fight schtick, etc,.

So while Almagro(like most Top 100 players) has more weapons then Andy, he's not likely to fight and remain consistent enough - to hold serve time after time for 5 sets - when Roddick is invariably holding with ease.


Round 4:

Roddick vs Ferrer.

If Roddick is playing anyone other then Ferrer I think he wins pretty easy. Andreev can catch lightning in a bottle, but unlikely. I favour Roddick 60/40 in this matchup, especially if he is 9 sets up and 9 sets down coming in. Roddick will be ready for a war, and will ride his competitve nature and big serve to a tough 3 or 4 set victory. Don't get me wrong, this is still only 60/40....but in favour of Roddick so....onto the QF's.

Quarter Finals:

Roddick vs Nadal.

If Roddick faces Nalby, Ljub, Youhz he's probably onto the SF's. Especially because if Roddick is in the QF's he is probably relatively "in form."

As poor as his form may be.

If Roddick faces Nadal, which is still very likely, then Rafa is a pretty sizable favorite. BUT, this is a good surface for Andy, a relatively poor one for Rafa, and it's NOT Rafa's time of year. Andy would be in with a chance being a 35/65 underdog. Rafa's physical condition being the real advantage Andy would be praying for. So yah, the run probably ends hear in the QF's. But he's in with a chance to go atleast this deep.

Semi-Finals:

Roddick vs Murray.

I think Roddick IMO is a huge underdog here. Murray is just too good for him at this point and is my favorite for the tournament. However if Andy faces; Delpo, Isner, Sod, Wawrinka, Simon, he'd be in with(more then) half a chance. Against the better Andy, I think Roddick fights hard with his serve, doesn't pack it in, but is ultimately ruthlessly outclassed. Murray may wet his pants in a Major Final against Fed, but I don't think he's too scared of the American Andy.

Finals:

Roddick vs Fed/Djoko/Tsonga.

Roddick IMO in the best case scenario still probably loses to Murray in the SF's. If Roddick doesn't play Rafa in the QF's or beats Nadal, and Murray isn't in the Semis, then maybe Roddick gets to the final. A final he would most assuredly lose to any of Fed/Djoko/Tsonga IMO.

So there is a thorough Roddick US Open breakdown. Flame away.

Roddick has long been out of the picture, he isn't going to be achieving anything great anymore.
 
Roddick will have to work his *** off to get by the third round. Almagro is a legit player, Benneateau got further in WS than Roddick after all, and Istomin is a solid player too. Roddick has a tentative game, he doesn't go for his big forehand anymore and he continues to approach on absolute garbage backhand slice shots. He made Lopez look like Agassi when he'd come to the net and get passed over nd over again in Wimbeldon.

He got taken apart by Kohlschriber in Cinci. Roddick is playing top 50 tennis and that's where he belongs. He has no tactics and his coach wrecked his game. He has a big serve and nothing to follow it up with that scares top 20 players. Think about it, guys like DelPo, Tsonga, Troicki, Simon, these are 10-20 ranked players, Roddick would lose 7/10 matches to each of theseguys.

The guys ranked around Roddick like Tipsy, Lopez, Isner, etc. are guys that can beat him pretty much straight up on a "good" day for Andy.

If he played more aggressive and had that edge, I'd be more optimistic. I like him, he plays hard, he's fiery, but Stefanki has neutered his game. Esp at this age, 29-30, Roddick ain't out lasting any of these guys so he needs to be more willing to unleash the big shots but he has always had just the big FH. His BH side is a joke, Isner kept hitting it to that side in WS semi and it was pretty obvious.
 
Almarago wins in 5. The spanard is better at about everything but his serve.

Almagro will need his serve to stay in that match if it happens, what with him being the worst hardcourt player in the top 20. And even when he's firing, he fails to back up his serving consistently (such as his self-destruction against Tsonga in Canada).

But Almagro 2011 comes with improved timing, helping him to some wins at Wimbledon, so I can see him playing Roddick tough; especially if the USO courts are as slow as reported. But the American still wins at the expense of no more than a set, however much Almagro papers over his shortcomings.
 
I was probably being overly optimistic about Andy in the original post. But some of you guys are also now being overly pessimistic.

The Wimbly 09' Final wasn't THAT long ago. When he's healthy he doesn't play much different then that.

Had Roddick won against Isner 7-6,7-6 rather then losing 6-7,4-6 he probably would have gone on to beat Benneteau as well. The difference between those two outcomes is just one break of serve in the Isner match.

Everyone would be seeing Roddick as a favorite over Almagro and approx 50/50 against Ferrer had he won Winston Salem.

I realize I am glass half full. Hell I am glass 60% full when it only contains 45% water.... but some of you guys are being glass 85% empty....and it's not THAT bad.....yet
 
^Sorry, thank you. Yes, I read it.
I was playing off the word breakdown. I am sorry it just did not click. I did not do a good job communicating that (a communication breakdown?)

The OP probably meant breakdown as in synopsis or assessment.
I took it to another meaning of breakdown as I fear Roddick will have more problems controlling his surliness. I also think Lacoste is either a few yrs late on doing a Roddick signature line....or just trying to milk him in his last yr or two on the men's tour.
 
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