Qubax
Professional
Roddick has been rolling this week at Winston-Salem. So far he is 6 sets up 6 set down to the tune of:
6-2, 6-4, 6-1, 6-3, 6-1, 6-4
Being ranked 21st, and injured much of the summer(and year really) Roddick is flying way under the radar.
As a huge Roddick fan, I am doing what any huge fan does. Getting ahead of myself based on 3 matches against pretty poor competition.
So, here's how I breakdown Roddick's US Open 2011 Chances:
EDIT: Roddick Flames out to Isner 6-7(7-9), 4-6 at Winston Salem. US Open ahead
Round 1:
Roddick vs Russell. Roddick about a 97/3 Favorite here. Roddick can actually outhit Russell off the ground, and that is pretty rare these days. Roddick can serve, and pusher his way to a 7-5,6-4,6-3 win. If Andy brings ANYTHING extra to the table he wins even easier.
I am not trying to underrate Russell here, but he just doesn't have enough game to hurt Roddick, even if he does make Andy run down a few extra balls. Realistically he'll just help Andy find a groove on the court, get in a rhythm and set him up for Round 2.
Russell has a 3% chance of winning and probably only a 5% chance of taking a set.
Round 2:
Roddick vs Sock/Gicquel. Umm, yah. Slam dunk. Gicquel could put up more resistance then Sock, but still not much. Considering I could see a Gicquel vs Russell matchup as a toss up, you can imagine I don't like MG chances here.
Round 3:
Roddick vs Istomin/Benneteau/Almagro.
The most dangerous to Andy IMO is Almagro. ..and he has been his usual Monfils/Verdasco-esque inconsistent self lately. Can't see any of these three beating Andy 3 out of 5. And if Roddick has anything going for him it is that he'll keep fighting and use his experience. The whole It's not his first dog fight schtick, etc,.
So while Almagro(like most Top 100 players) has more weapons then Andy, he's not likely to fight and remain consistent enough - to hold serve time after time for 5 sets - when Roddick is invariably holding with ease.
Round 4:
Roddick vs Ferrer.
If Roddick is playing anyone other then Ferrer I think he wins pretty easy. Andreev can catch lightning in a bottle, but unlikely. I favour Roddick 60/40 in this matchup, especially if he is 9 sets up and 9 sets down coming in. Roddick will be ready for a war, and will ride his competitve nature and big serve to a tough 3 or 4 set victory. Don't get me wrong, this is still only 60/40....but in favour of Roddick so....onto the QF's.
Quarter Finals:
Roddick vs Nadal.
If Roddick faces Nalby, Ljub, Youhz he's probably onto the SF's. Especially because if Roddick is in the QF's he is probably relatively "in form."
As poor as his form may be.
If Roddick faces Nadal, which is still very likely, then Rafa is a pretty sizable favorite. BUT, this is a good surface for Andy, a relatively poor one for Rafa, and it's NOT Rafa's time of year. Andy would be in with a chance being a 35/65 underdog. Rafa's physical condition being the real advantage Andy would be praying for. So yah, the run probably ends hear in the QF's. But he's in with a chance to go atleast this deep.
Semi-Finals:
Roddick vs Murray.
I think Roddick IMO is a huge underdog here. Murray is just too good for him at this point and is my favorite for the tournament. However if Andy faces; Delpo, Isner, Sod, Wawrinka, Simon, he'd be in with(more then) half a chance. Against the better Andy, I think Roddick fights hard with his serve, doesn't pack it in, but is ultimately ruthlessly outclassed. Murray may wet his pants in a Major Final against Fed, but I don't think he's too scared of the American Andy.
Finals:
Roddick vs Fed/Djoko/Tsonga.
Roddick IMO in the best case scenario still probably loses to Murray in the SF's. If Roddick doesn't play Rafa in the QF's or beats Nadal, and Murray isn't in the Semis, then maybe Roddick gets to the final. A final he would most assuredly lose to any of Fed/Djoko/Tsonga IMO.
So there is a thorough Roddick US Open breakdown. Flame away.
6-2, 6-4, 6-1, 6-3, 6-1, 6-4
Being ranked 21st, and injured much of the summer(and year really) Roddick is flying way under the radar.
As a huge Roddick fan, I am doing what any huge fan does. Getting ahead of myself based on 3 matches against pretty poor competition.
So, here's how I breakdown Roddick's US Open 2011 Chances:
EDIT: Roddick Flames out to Isner 6-7(7-9), 4-6 at Winston Salem. US Open ahead
Round 1:
Roddick vs Russell. Roddick about a 97/3 Favorite here. Roddick can actually outhit Russell off the ground, and that is pretty rare these days. Roddick can serve, and pusher his way to a 7-5,6-4,6-3 win. If Andy brings ANYTHING extra to the table he wins even easier.
I am not trying to underrate Russell here, but he just doesn't have enough game to hurt Roddick, even if he does make Andy run down a few extra balls. Realistically he'll just help Andy find a groove on the court, get in a rhythm and set him up for Round 2.
Russell has a 3% chance of winning and probably only a 5% chance of taking a set.
Round 2:
Roddick vs Sock/Gicquel. Umm, yah. Slam dunk. Gicquel could put up more resistance then Sock, but still not much. Considering I could see a Gicquel vs Russell matchup as a toss up, you can imagine I don't like MG chances here.
Round 3:
Roddick vs Istomin/Benneteau/Almagro.
The most dangerous to Andy IMO is Almagro. ..and he has been his usual Monfils/Verdasco-esque inconsistent self lately. Can't see any of these three beating Andy 3 out of 5. And if Roddick has anything going for him it is that he'll keep fighting and use his experience. The whole It's not his first dog fight schtick, etc,.
So while Almagro(like most Top 100 players) has more weapons then Andy, he's not likely to fight and remain consistent enough - to hold serve time after time for 5 sets - when Roddick is invariably holding with ease.
Round 4:
Roddick vs Ferrer.
If Roddick is playing anyone other then Ferrer I think he wins pretty easy. Andreev can catch lightning in a bottle, but unlikely. I favour Roddick 60/40 in this matchup, especially if he is 9 sets up and 9 sets down coming in. Roddick will be ready for a war, and will ride his competitve nature and big serve to a tough 3 or 4 set victory. Don't get me wrong, this is still only 60/40....but in favour of Roddick so....onto the QF's.
Quarter Finals:
Roddick vs Nadal.
If Roddick faces Nalby, Ljub, Youhz he's probably onto the SF's. Especially because if Roddick is in the QF's he is probably relatively "in form."
As poor as his form may be.
If Roddick faces Nadal, which is still very likely, then Rafa is a pretty sizable favorite. BUT, this is a good surface for Andy, a relatively poor one for Rafa, and it's NOT Rafa's time of year. Andy would be in with a chance being a 35/65 underdog. Rafa's physical condition being the real advantage Andy would be praying for. So yah, the run probably ends hear in the QF's. But he's in with a chance to go atleast this deep.
Semi-Finals:
Roddick vs Murray.
I think Roddick IMO is a huge underdog here. Murray is just too good for him at this point and is my favorite for the tournament. However if Andy faces; Delpo, Isner, Sod, Wawrinka, Simon, he'd be in with(more then) half a chance. Against the better Andy, I think Roddick fights hard with his serve, doesn't pack it in, but is ultimately ruthlessly outclassed. Murray may wet his pants in a Major Final against Fed, but I don't think he's too scared of the American Andy.
Finals:
Roddick vs Fed/Djoko/Tsonga.
Roddick IMO in the best case scenario still probably loses to Murray in the SF's. If Roddick doesn't play Rafa in the QF's or beats Nadal, and Murray isn't in the Semis, then maybe Roddick gets to the final. A final he would most assuredly lose to any of Fed/Djoko/Tsonga IMO.
So there is a thorough Roddick US Open breakdown. Flame away.
Last edited: