Andy Roddick: US Open Breakdown

God, I hate seeing Andy go down...but he's been playing poorly, for whatever reason.

What is his reason??

No matter, I only hope he gets as far as Ferrer. Should he, Ferrer will take him. [That little Energizer Bunny will drive Roddick mad.] But I'll always love Andy, anyway. I want him to go as far as he possibly can his year and I'll be watching and reading up on him...hoping....
 
These rumors of slower courts could really hurt Andy.

If he can't get cheap points of his serve, there is only so many points he'll win on low offense/defensive rallies.
 
These rumors of slower courts could really hurt Andy.

If he can't get cheap points of his serve, there is only so many points he'll win on low offense/defensive rallies.
How fast are the Miami-Indian Wells courts? He did well there last year, and I think they're relatively slow compared to Cincinnati and Canada. I'm wondering if the medium-fast courts work better for his ground game than the super-fast courts.
 
It's funny, when you read the writings of a super-fan of a player that you're not that interested in, you can see how unrealistic it is.
I can even see Russell taking a set off Roddick.
 
It's funny, when you read the writings of a super-fan of a player that you're not that interested in, you can see how unrealistic it is.
I can even see Russell taking a set off Roddick.

A spot-on prediction. Not sure he'll get another.
 
Lets not forget that for Roddick to meet Ferrer, Ferrer has to go through a resurging James Blake (who owns a 2-0 H2H) and Roddick has to win two more matches as well. Assuming that Roddick and Ferrer both make it through to the 4th round, I would not like Roddicks chances unless he starts finding the range on his FH and BH DTL.

Ferrer is basically a top ten version of Michael Russell and will eat up those short balls that Andy leaves in the middle of the court. Same thing Tipsy did to him last year, same thing Stan did to him earlier this year.

I'd say if Andy plays Ferrer like he played Russell tonight, its more like 20/80 for Ferrer(playing with 1 shoe), maybe even less than that, and if he somehow regains his form it'd be an even 50/50.
 
....as I said

Fair enough. Your right there.

But there was also all this worry about "Almagro" and in my original thread I indicated how inconsistent Almagro can be.

Roddick, is if nothing else, consistent.

Roddick has Sock, Benneteau and Ferrer playing with a fractured wrist standing between himself and the QF's

My original post is still not far from the truth.
 
Part of the reason people have turned against Roddick so completely is because:

Roddick does not have a sexy game.

Roddick does not play fundamentally sound tennis.

Roddick is boring to watch.

Roddick is an ass, and even I would agree that he is the last guy I'd want marrying my daughter(seriously, I think the guy is an adult-spoiled brat, who generally has low overall character as a man).

These poor qualities are so counter to everything that we want to see in the game.

But facts are facts, and Roddick is statistically very consistent over the course of the last decade, and has every opportunity to play his way into this major and do everything I outlined in my original post.

It should also be noted, that Roddick won in 4 not 3 - yes. BUT he did so playing AWFUL tennis, even by his standards.

He wasn't moving well, he wasn't even defending as well as he can. He wasn't serving up to his standard. Even his returns were worse then normal.

There is a reason that poor, and average Andy can beat Russell in straights any day of the week...and it took a VERY poor performance on Roddick's behalf to win in 4....
 
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almagro is out so that is a big plus, blake might give ferrer a scare. good draw for andy, doesnt have to face a big server like isner

I hope andy can practice to step into the court more and flatten out his shots
 
Looks like his draw opened up a little. But don't count on anything still with his performance today.

Glad he's through though.
 
Roddick Redux

First round offers Michael Russell, oh my!
He's just thankful he didn't have to qualify.
Second round: Yeah, I don't know who they are.
They might as well head straight for the bar.
Nicolas Almagro may beat you on clay,
but he certainly won't beat you this day.
It will be a fourth-round, five-set scare,
but you'll get your revenge on David Ferrer.
Then the universe finally hears your pleas,
and Nadal, mid-match, loses his knees.
Now you'd expect the other Andy to pound,
but Mr. Murray crashed out in the first round.
So, it's onto the finals and someone got his wish,
and you will console your dear friend Mardy Fish.

very nice :)
 
Honestly overall he didnt play that well yesterday, but Russell was in god mode in the 3rd..

But sometimes he showed some magic and hit some great FH and even downtheline BH winners. I still think that if he can get past 3rd R(Bennetau), then it is 60:40 or 50:50 vs Ferrer.
 
After seeing last nights match Roddick will probably not even get to the 4th round. Even the commentaters said that almost everyone in the top 100 have better FH's than Andy. With the way he has been playing he'll lose in the 3rd round to Bennetaeu, or maybe even to Sock in the next match.
 
He should beat Sock either way. But I agree that if he plays like he did last night he'd have lost to Benneteau.

The fact is Roddick played REALLY bad yesterday, and still won in 4.

Andy got 3 hours of hitting in though, so hopefully he can play his way into the tourney
 
I've been a big Roddick fan these past several years too, and hope he gets it the HOF. He should, because Chang is in, and Roddick's career is better. But he was lucky to get past Russell, and that luck won't continue very long at the Open. His killer forehand is gone, his backhand is usually a slice, and he just doesn't seem to have much heart after last year's loss at Wimbledon. The only thing left is his serve, which can't win the tournament by itself.
 
Just a few comments.

Nice to see Andy into the 3rd round.

As I predicted(in the OP) Andy would face either Almagro, Istomin or Benneteau in the 3rd Round.

Almagro(as I pointed out in the OP is very inconsistent, so while he was probably the most dangerous - it's not a big surprise he was upset early. Consistency folks, it's the only thing Andy has on Almagro and most others, but it's there)

Istomin then played Benneteau and lost to him, which brings us to our 3rd round match up.

I'll be honest if Roddick plays like he did against Russell - Benneteau probably wins in 3. If Roddick plays like he did against Sock he probably loses or wins in a 50/50 coin flip - tight 5 setter.

However, one round at a time. If Roddick can raise his game another 10-15% on what he did against Sock, he should be able to "grind"(blech, ugh, etc.) his way to a 4 set win. I would expect it to be relatively grueling, and more likely to go 5 sets then 3.

A couple of things I noticed in the Russell match, and less so in the Sock match, was that there were a number of balls that Russell/Sock hit for winners that Roddick didn't even run for, that he normally would run for.

Whether he would get them back is uncertain. And this phenomena was more prevalent in the Russell match...which is an encouraging sign, in that Andy is trending toward getting to more balls and being in better "match" shape.

I believe that Roddick still has an entirely adequate, if not above average Aerobic base and endurance level. However, I think what is taking a little bit of time for Andy to play his way into is the Anaerobic - quick burst, sprinting stuff.

Obviously Andy has no offensive groundie weapons, and everyone, including grandmothers universe wide can put Roddick on the defensive. But that fact is, there were a number of shots Russell hit...and he hit them for clean winners...that Andy did NOT even run for. And I'm telling you an inform Roddick is either getting to those balls, or atleast making an attempt.

As I say, this was a LOT more noticeable in the Russell match, where I think there was atleast 8 per set. I'd say in the Sock match Roddick halved this to about 4 shots per set.

Obviously some winners no one runs for.....but these were shots where you could see that Andy would be running for them if he was match ready.

The good news is he was better in this department against a better offensive player in Sock then he was against Russell. The troubling news is that he's going to have to ramp it up even further to not have real trouble with Benneateu. Because while Julien may not outhit Sock, he won't have nearily the UE count either.

Still though, I expect Andy to grind his way to a 4 or 5 set victory. One must remember Benneteau is in pretty good form. Had Roddick played Almagro he would be playing someone with a WAY, WAY bigger game, and counting on Almagro's wild Verdasco-esque inconsistency.

Benneteau also has a bigger game then Roddick(who doesn't), but he doesn't possess the sheer fire power Almagro does. What Benneateau does better then Nicolas is have a lot more consistency, guile, experience etc. Plus Benneteau in beating Almagro and Istomin in straights, fresh off of the finals of Winston Salem - is clearly IN form.

Should be a douzey and Roddick's first pretty big test.

If Andy can ramp it up and beat JB in 3 or 4, then I see no reason he can't be in that 50/50 coin flip territory for Ferrer.

If Andy had faced Ferrer first round he gets blitz, 4-3-1, imo.
 
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Fair enough. Your right there.

But there was also all this worry about "Almagro" and in my original thread I indicated how inconsistent Almagro can be.

Roddick, is if nothing else, consistent.

Roddick has Sock, Benneteau and Ferrer playing with a fractured wrist standing between himself and the QF's

My original post is still not far from the truth.

I thought Roddick played better today than I expected but don't underestimate Benneteau, he's playing very well.

Actually I just read your post above. I see you agree with me. I think Benneteau will give him real trouble and could even eliminate him.
 
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Benneteau has been playing excellent tennis for the past couple of days. He had a RU in the salem event, and hasn't dropped a set in the first two rounds. An upset is possible.
 
You Roddick fans are probably the most objective people on the forum...wish there were more of you guys here.
 
tbh roddick couldnt have asked for a nicer draw for this tournament, he avoided the top 4 untill the QF if he makes it there. Then he plays nadal who his game probably matches roddicks best when roddicks playing well and it could be even better seeing as rafa has a tough match vs nalbandian.

We'll see what happens doubt roddick has a real chance if I'm honest.

Yah the whole reason this OP seems optimisitc is because to be honest Roddick got a very nice draw.


He got an easy draw relatively speaking into the 4th round, had Andy got an average to difficult draw, he probably would have lost in the first or second round.
 
tbh roddick couldnt have asked for a nicer draw for this tournament, he avoided the top 4 untill the QF if he makes it there. Then he plays nadal who his game probably matches roddicks best when roddicks playing well and it could be even better seeing as rafa has a tough match vs nalbandian.

We'll see what happens doubt roddick has a real chance if I'm honest.

Well ofcourse Roddick doesn't have a real chance, if any, to win the tournament. But I think he has the opportunity to do what I outlined in the OP.
 
I'd love to see him make the QF is only to boost his ranking. I want him to finish top 10 badly
 
I'd love to see him make the QF is only to boost his ranking. I want him to finish top 10 badly

Well he lost to Tipsarevic last year in round 2, so I imagine if he got through Benneteau and Ferrer and lost in the Quarters(presumably to Rafa) he'd gain a lot points
 
Indeed Roddick has a lot to gain:


W - 2000
F - 1200
SF - 720
QF - 360
R16-180
R32- 90
R64- 45
R128- 10

So Roddick is defending a measly 45, if he gets to the QF's then he would have 360 and thus gain 315.

This would take Andy from 1680 to 1995 and without taking into account what the rest of the field is defending, Andy would rise from 21st to 15th in the world.

What I don't understand is why Andy got no points for his Semi Final appearance at Winston Salem. Not saying it would have been worth much(only 90 ATP points) but he wasn't credited with them. I never fully understand how they count what...
 
Do you think andy roddick will win tomorrow?


I dont think so - his groundstrokes are quite poor and he is playing someone right at the top of their game who dispatched almagro and istomin both in straights - guys who would hit roddick off the court from the baseline. Benneteau serves well - not as well as roddick but he returns better and has all the experience a wily old vet can have. i expect two things: benneteau in 3 or 4 and roddick to demand his towel after every frickin point....
 
I dont think so - his groundstrokes are quite poor and he is playing someone right at the top of their game who dispatched almagro and istomin both in straights - guys who would hit roddick off the court from the baseline. Benneteau serves well - not as well as roddick but he returns better and has all the experience a wily old vet can have. i expect two things: benneteau in 3 or 4 and roddick to demand his towel after every frickin point....

This isn't really an argument that holds much water.

Sock was ranked on the wrong side of 500 and he outhit Andy. Fact is EVERYONE out hits Roddick, and the fact is, he's still better then most.

Sure he's fallen to 21, and he's hugely on the downside of his career, but saying that Benneteau beat bigger hitters then Roddick has almost no barring on how a match with Andy will go.

I will look to see how Andy is moving. Since he only defends(and serves) he needs to defend well.

Otherwise I think the match will probably come down to a battle of who returns better.

The fact is Benneteau may be a better returner then Andy, but in tomorrows match he needs to be.

I would think First serve percentage, and break point efficiency could be key stats.
 
This isn't really an argument that holds much water.

Sock was ranked on the wrong side of 500 and he outhit Andy. Fact is EVERYONE out hits Roddick, and the fact is, he's still better then most.

Sure he's fallen to 21, and he's hugely on the downside of his career, but saying that Benneteau beat bigger hitters then Roddick has almost no barring on how a match with Andy will go.

I will look to see how Andy is moving. Since he only defends(and serves) he needs to defend well.

Otherwise I think the match will probably come down to a battle of who returns better.

The fact is Benneteau may be a better returner then Andy, but in tomorrows match he needs to be.

I would think First serve percentage, and break point efficiency could be key stats.

Yes, first serve % will be important as well bp conversion. I think Benneteau also shades it at the net and this could play a big part. In terms of who is playing closer to their own potential right now though, there is no question for me that it is Benneteau.....
 
Comprehensive win for Roddick.

He won easier then even I expected.

I will say however that I think the advantage Roddick had today was the heat. His serve was flying.

Roddick had one missed serve that he bombed for 146 mph.

That serve would be 139 at night....and that's when he'll be playing Ferrer, on Tuesday.

Otherwise, Roddick moved better, added some variety, and is playing his way into the tournament.

I see no reason in the match with Ferrer(other then it being a night match, and thus cooler out) that Andy can't be in a coin flip probability wise.
 
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I got this one completely wrong - Roddick was better than i thought and benneteau was worse than i thought. I think roddick is solid but very unspectacular - i would fancy ferrer in 4 or 5.... could be interesting tho,.....
 
Roddick will lose in the round of 16 to Ferrer if he is lucky. Most likely he is out in the 2nd or 3rd round IMO.

Haha, yah...about that.

My original post is still true to form.

Will Andy usually lose in the first two or three rounds of majors from here on in - in his career? Sure

But the reason I made the original post that I did, is because Roddick had probably the easiest draw out there.

Realistically has any man entering the 4th round of the Open had an easier time then:

Michael Russell
Jack Sock
Julien Benneteau

??

I think not. Julien was the toughest of those three, however he's never been farther then the 3rd round at a major, so he was red lining, he was where he should be, and it makes sense that he lost when he did.

Benneteau was an average to below average level of player for Roddick in round 3, and to be honest Russell and Sock were both 1st round level opponents.

So it's easy to just think off hand that Roddick will burn out in the 2nd or 3rd round....but my post was really only so encouraging interms of Andy getting to the 2nd week because match by match his draw was pretty easy.

Atleast until Ferrer. Now things get super tough.

But, I contend now that Andy has played his way into the tourney, that this match is a LOT closer to a coin flip, then almost anyone anticipates
 
happens every slam. arod fans going gaga because andy is rolling through an incredibly easy draw to the 16. will their hopes be dashed yet again in the round of 16s?
 
happens every slam. arod fans going gaga because andy is rolling through an incredibly easy draw to the 16. will their hopes be dashed yet again in the round of 16s?

I am happy Andy is there. But I am the first to admit Roddick is where he is because the draw was easy.

It get's a LOT tougher now, but Andy has had a chance to play his way into the tourney...and I think if Andy is 50/50 against Ferrer it is because it is the 4th round.

In the first round Roddick would be an 85/15 underdog.

Most people think that is still the case for Andy versus Ferrer(15/85). But I think having some match play under him, and having a chance to play his way into the tournament...Andy has worked his way into a coin flip.

Ferrer is better then Roddick in virtually every discipline. Even the serve may only be a slight favorite to Andy.

But is Andy better off facing a Berdych, Delpo type or Ferrer? Fact is, there are few easy 4th round match ups. And because of Andys poor ranking he doesn't deserve an easier opponent.

But Ferrer is the lesser of a few evils he could be playing.

I only wish this match was NOT at night.
 
I think not. Julien was the toughest of those three, however he's never been farther then the 3rd round at a major, so he was red lining, he was where he should be, and it makes sense that he lost when he did.

Benneteau was an average to below average level of player for Roddick in round 3, and to be honest Russell and Sock were both 1st round level opponents.

So it's easy to just think off hand that Roddick will burn out in the 2nd or 3rd round....but my post was really only so encouraging interms of Andy getting to the 2nd week because match by match his draw was pretty easy.

Atleast until Ferrer. Now things get super tough.

But, I contend now that Andy has played his way into the tourney, that this match is a LOT closer to a coin flip, then almost anyone anticipates

Benneteau reached the quarter-finals at Roland Garros in 2006, but I agree with your analysis overall. Roddick is facing Ferrer at just the right time, and whilst the Spaniard is the slight favourite he's always susceptible to being bossed out of slams. You don't seem to have much faith in Roddick's firepower these days, but he's going to have to bring it to be in with a shot. He knows that, and I'm expecting him to take risks on his return games provided his serve is shooting right. I wouldn't rule out some netrushing here and there either, a department Roddick often looks inept in, but he's had the odd day where his volleys are working and Tuesday might have to be one of them.
 
If Roddick can serve well and keep the ball with good depth he has a pretty good shot at taking out Ferrer in a close match. But if he keeps dropping everything short he will get pummeled.
 
Benneteau reached the quarter-finals at Roland Garros in 2006, but I agree with your analysis overall. Roddick is facing Ferrer at just the right time, and whilst the Spaniard is the slight favourite he's always susceptible to being bossed out of slams. You don't seem to have much faith in Roddick's firepower these days, but he's going to have to bring it to be in with a shot. He knows that, and I'm expecting him to take risks on his return games provided his serve is shooting right. I wouldn't rule out some netrushing here and there either, a department Roddick often looks inept in, but he's had the odd day where his volleys are working and Tuesday might have to be one of them.

Opps, my mistake. It must be that Benneteau has not gotten past the 3rd round of the US Open.

Also, to clarify my take on Roddick's lack of fire power, here it is:

From the baseline, in terms of Groundies Roddick hits like a girl.

But sure when Andy comes in off a deep groundie he is adequate at the net. But his approaches against Ferrer will need to be leaps and bounds better then they were against Benneteau, or you will see alot of Roddick standing at the net in the middle, and Ferrer hitting a cross court passing shot.

Truth be told, Roddick will need to serve very well, play with variety, and come in the odd time he gets Ferrer on the run.
 
I feel like I'm being realistic when I say I think it's Ferrer in 4 over Roddick. I really think Roddick's got a chance to make the QFs, because Ferrer has that little wrist problem. Against Benneteau he showed a little more variety, and actually hit the ball with some pace and depth. His net game looked much improved, and will be key against a guy like Ferrer who is not really known for his own net game. Problem is though, Ferrer has played lights out. Roddick just has to give it all in this match and he just might find himself in his first quarterfinals since AO10.
 
If Roddick can serve well and keep the ball with good depth he has a pretty good shot at taking out Ferrer in a close match. But if he keeps dropping everything short he will get pummeled.

This is probably the most key thing said yet. There is no way for Andy to not hit like a girl off the ground at this point. Atleast not by Tuesday night....but if Roddicks shots are going to be weak and spinny - they sure as hell better be painting the back lines.
 
I was surprised. I thought Benneteau would put up much more of a fight than he did.

Hard to imagine Roddick winning against Ferrer these days but who knows.
 
I was surprised. I thought Benneteau would put up much more of a fight than he did.

Hard to imagine Roddick winning against Ferrer these days but who knows.

Even I thought Benneteau would have a better showing, although I did predict Andy would get through.

I really believe had this match been at night Benneteau would have kept things closer, maybe snuck out a set.

But I can't complain.
 
I can start to see a little light if he can get past Ferrer. With Nadal's cramping, that could give him a good chance. I think if it is a night match, Roddick could win afainst Ferrer. Today Roddick did better than I thought. Also against Sock I noticed he was trying to hit a flatter FH.
 
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