I say no...
First let me say that I really enjoyed watching Fish throughout the tournament. He seems to be playing on top of his game and is finally healthy. Also I think he is a hell of a guy personally and I wish him all the luck for the remainder of his career (since I assume the bad luck already ran its course).
That said, Mardy does not match up well against Fed for the following reasons:
1) Movement - if you half a step slower then average guy on tour, Fed will expose that mercilessly. I was really surprised Nalbandian didn't do it today as Fish was able to flatten out his forehand and go after the ball early in the rallies. But against Fed it's going to be a little more difficult. Too difficult on average.
2) Fish has a very nice, natural backhand that can do a lot of damage. But it is flat and that is something that doesn't really bother Fed. Fed's backhand performs much better against such stroke as short backswing will allow him to redirect the ball at will.
3) Fed plays with much more variety than Nalbandian, which will not allow Fish to find a nice grove on his forehand. He will have to contend with short slices to the backhand and big loopers to his forehand. Fish on a run is "fish out of water"...
4) I don't see any way Fish can win forehand to forehand cross court rallies. Mardy put some quality time with the coaches to make it a solid stroke, but it really looks somewhat awkward. It worked surprisingly well against Nalby, but I will be really surprised if it holds up against the best forehand in the game.
So unless Fish rides his serve to the tiebreak in the first set and Fed gets antsy, I see Fed in straight sets. Especially now that everything seems to be aligning for Fed to reestablish his dominance.
First let me say that I really enjoyed watching Fish throughout the tournament. He seems to be playing on top of his game and is finally healthy. Also I think he is a hell of a guy personally and I wish him all the luck for the remainder of his career (since I assume the bad luck already ran its course).
That said, Mardy does not match up well against Fed for the following reasons:
1) Movement - if you half a step slower then average guy on tour, Fed will expose that mercilessly. I was really surprised Nalbandian didn't do it today as Fish was able to flatten out his forehand and go after the ball early in the rallies. But against Fed it's going to be a little more difficult. Too difficult on average.
2) Fish has a very nice, natural backhand that can do a lot of damage. But it is flat and that is something that doesn't really bother Fed. Fed's backhand performs much better against such stroke as short backswing will allow him to redirect the ball at will.
3) Fed plays with much more variety than Nalbandian, which will not allow Fish to find a nice grove on his forehand. He will have to contend with short slices to the backhand and big loopers to his forehand. Fish on a run is "fish out of water"...
4) I don't see any way Fish can win forehand to forehand cross court rallies. Mardy put some quality time with the coaches to make it a solid stroke, but it really looks somewhat awkward. It worked surprisingly well against Nalby, but I will be really surprised if it holds up against the best forehand in the game.
So unless Fish rides his serve to the tiebreak in the first set and Fed gets antsy, I see Fed in straight sets. Especially now that everything seems to be aligning for Fed to reestablish his dominance.
