Anyone know for how long Djokovic has the #1 ranking secured?

Tomorrow (Monday 28th January) he starts his 236th week as #1. He has a substantial lead and virtually no points to defend until Rome in mid-May. So it's very likely that he'll be #1 for at least the next three and a half months. But Nadal has nothing to defend until April, either, so I'm not sure it is yet guaranteed. Does anyone know?
 
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Deleted member 77403

Guest
I expect Djokovic to hold onto it at least until the conclusion of Wimbledon. So he has another six months left.
 

smoledman

G.O.A.T.
It will be very tough for him with Zverev chasing him down and all those points to defend in the 2nd half.
 

Badabing888

Hall of Fame
Tomorrow (Monday 28th January) he starts his 236th week as #1. He has a substantial lead and virtually no points to defend until Rome in mid-May. So it's very likely that he'll be #1 for at least the next three and a half months. But Nadal has nothing to defend until April, either, so I'm not sure it is yet guaranteed. Does anyone know?
FIFY. Not 236th week in a row. Next week will be his 13th week in a row in his current stint as number 1.
 
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Deleted member 77403

Guest
@ibbi @Hitman Yes, I too think that the first realistic date at which he'd lose it is the day after Wimbledon and that he might well hold it the whole year. But I wonder what is mathematically secure.
Not sure about mathematically secure to be honest.
 

smoledman

G.O.A.T.
I think at this point he's 100% certain to surpass Federer's total weeks at #1 because Federer is down to #6 now and will never sniff another week again.
 
The difference between them tomorrow will be 2635 points. Nadal could sweep Acapulco, Indian Wells and Miami (2500), and he would still fall short. Djokovic himself has done nothing during the last Sunshine Double, losing his opening matches, so he has pretty much the same amount of points up for grabs before the clay season.
 

TripleATeam

Legend
Mathematically:
Assuming no more than 1 500 in stretches without many 1000s or above AKA: February, June, we can come to a conclusion.

Dubai/Acapulco/Rotterdam/Rio: Assuming Novak doesn't play and Nadal wins, Nadal lowers the gap to 2135.
Indian Wells/Miami: Since this is mathematical, Nadal wins here and Novak loses R1. Nadal lowers the gap to 135.
Monte Carlo: Nadal cannot gain points, but Novak can lose 90. Gap lowers to 45 points.
Barcelona: Gap impossible to increase.
Madrid: Nadal lost in QF in 2018, so the gap can be eliminated. Nadal gains 820 points and Novak loses 45. Gap is now 820 points in Nadal's favor.

Novak holds #1 until Madrid, mathematically.
 

Badabing888

Hall of Fame
I think at this point he's 100% certain to surpass Federer's total weeks at #1 because Federer is down to #6 now and will never sniff another week again.
Nothing is certain. Still another 75 weeks to surpass Federer’s total of 310 weeks; that is another year and 5 months at number 1.
 
The difference between them tomorrow will be 2635 points. Nadal could sweep Acapulco, Indian Wells and Miami (2500), and he would still fall short. Djokovic himself has done nothing during the last Sunshine Double, losing his opening matches, so he has pretty much the same amount of points up for grabs before the clay season.
RAFA to sweep Rotterdam-Acapulco-IW-Miami then.
 

BGod

Legend
Barring huge injury or unexpected loss of form, he should have it until the beginning of the US Open.
Winner, winner, chicken dinner.

The only mathematical way Novak loses the ranking after Wimbledon is basically if he burns out in early rounds at every event from here on out and Nadal wins all but 2 of them. No seriously, that's the kind of cushion you get for winning 2 Slams, 2 Masters and making the final of another Masters and the WTF. That and Novak has nearly nothing to defend from IW-Cincinnati and the French Open Quarter. So he'd definetly have to lose 1st Round of the French and I mean, miss Miami and Rome. Meanwhile Nadal has to keep up his end which includes winning Canada again or doing it in Cincinnati.

Novak could plausibly (not even realistically) lose it after burning out of the Cincinnati Open. So I mean, imagine he doesn't make even a QF of any upcoming 7 Masters tournaments, loses 1st or 2nd Round at the French and before Quarters of Wimbledon AAAAAAND Nadal wins almost everything.

I posted in December how Novak just had to win the Aussie as it sets the tone. He can be pedestrian until the USO and if he at least makes the SF there and wins one of the 2 last Masters and WTF Semifinal he should keep the #1 and then he could easily lose it AO next year.


So, REALISTICALLY he's keeping it until next year's Aussie.
 

reaper

Legend
Barring injury he's safe until the end of the USO. The best player in the world 2600 points in front with little to defend until Wimbledon. While other mathematical possibilities exist, you know the chances are slim when athletes are dependent on mathematics.
 

TripleATeam

Legend
Mathematically:
Assuming no more than 1 500 in stretches without many 1000s or above AKA: February, June, we can come to a conclusion.

Dubai/Acapulco/Rotterdam/Rio: Assuming Novak doesn't play and Nadal wins, Nadal lowers the gap to 2135.
Indian Wells/Miami: Since this is mathematical, Nadal wins here and Novak loses R1. Nadal lowers the gap to 135.
Monte Carlo: Nadal cannot gain points, but Novak can lose 90. Gap lowers to 45 points.
Barcelona: Gap impossible to increase.
Madrid: Nadal lost in QF in 2018, so the gap can be eliminated. Nadal gains 820 points and Novak loses 45. Gap is now 820 points in Nadal's favor.

Novak holds #1 until Madrid, mathematically.
Assuming, however, Nadal wins and Novak is a semifinalist in every single event, it becomes a conservative approximation of a "realistically secured" amount of time, accounting for upsets and whatnot.

Dubai/Acapulco/Rotterdam/Rio: Still assuming Novak doesn't play and Nadal wins, Nadal lowers the gap to 2135.
Indian Wells/Miami: Novak gains 720 points, but Nadal gains 2000. Gap = 855.
Monte Carlo: Nadal cannot gain points, and Novak gains 270. Gap = 1125.
Barcelona: Novak played last year, so no reason he won't again. Gains 180 points. Nadal stays the winner. Gap = 1305.
Madrid: Nadal gains 820 points, given the QF last year. Novak gains 315. Gap = 800.
Rome: Surprisingly, this one doesn't change at all.
RG: Nadal gains no points, but Novak gains 360 for a semi instead of a quarter. Gap = 1160.

Queens/Halle: Novak loses 120 points. Nadal gains 500. Gap = 540 points.
Wimbledon: Novak loses 1280 points. Nadal gains 1280 points. Gap = 2020 in favor of Nadal.

So realistically, Nadal has no chance of catching up to Novak until at least Wimbledon. If we make it so Novak makes finals (more liberal estimate), then Novak still leads by 320 points by Wimbledon, and Nadal can't overtake him until at least Cincinnati.
 
Assuming, however, Nadal wins and Novak is a semifinalist in every single event, it becomes a conservative approximation of a "realistically secured" amount of time, accounting for upsets and whatnot.

Dubai/Acapulco/Rotterdam/Rio: Still assuming Novak doesn't play and Nadal wins, Nadal lowers the gap to 2135.
Indian Wells/Miami: Novak gains 720 points, but Nadal gains 2000. Gap = 855.
Monte Carlo: Nadal cannot gain points, and Novak gains 270. Gap = 1125.
Barcelona: Novak played last year, so no reason he won't again. Gains 180 points. Nadal stays the winner. Gap = 1305.
Madrid: Nadal gains 820 points, given the QF last year. Novak gains 315. Gap = 800.
Rome: Surprisingly, this one doesn't change at all.
RG: Nadal gains no points, but Novak gains 360 for a semi instead of a quarter. Gap = 1160.

Queens/Halle: Novak loses 120 points. Nadal gains 500. Gap = 540 points.
Wimbledon: Novak loses 1280 points. Nadal gains 1280 points. Gap = 2020 in favor of Nadal.

So realistically, Nadal has no chance of catching up to Novak until at least Wimbledon. If we make it so Novak makes finals (more liberal estimate), then Novak still leads by 320 points by Wimbledon, and Nadal can't overtake him until at least Cincinnati.
Rotterdam and Rio are before Acapulco/Dubai so RAFA could earn 1000 points before Acapulco/Dubai. Of course not realistic but still a possibility.
 

TripleATeam

Legend
Rotterdam and Rio are before Acapulco/Dubai so RAFA could earn 1000 points before Acapulco/Dubai. Of course not realistic but still a possibility.
I did say assuming only 1 500 in February. February is a sort of rest month, and I can't remember many top 10 players who have decided to do both in the same year. That's why I eliminated that as a possibility.
 

reaper

Legend
Rotterdam and Rio are before Acapulco/Dubai so RAFA could earn 1000 points before Acapulco/Dubai. Of course not realistic but still a possibility.
Every time I see Nadal interviewed he talks about looking after his body due to age and injuries. He's not playing many of these events listed and isn't chasing the #1 ranking for its own sake.
 
I did say assuming only 1 500 in February. February is a sort of rest month, and I can't remember many top 10 players who have decided to do both in the same year. That's why I eliminated that as a possibility.
He just mentioned that he's played to little in recent times so playing all three in February would be great. Take the bull by the horns.
 

reaper

Legend
He just mentioned that he's played to little in recent times so playing all three in February would be great. Take the bull by the horns.
What he meant was no tournaments in 4 months and restricted practice. He's simply not going to break himself down by playing a heavy schedule.
 
There is no realistic scenario where he is not one going into next years Aussie

It may be very close but he will still be number one
 

TheGhostOfAgassi

Talk Tennis Guru
Can’t see anyone else than Novak winning Wimbledon. He will win some masters. Maybe WTF as well. So maybe he clinch 2019 YN1 as well.
 

brystone

Semi-Pro
Probably until sometime in 2021 at the earliest, sometime in 2023 at the latest. I would guess something in between and say sometime in 2022. We know Federer wont be #1 again. Nadal not 100% impossible, but very unlikely, especialy with his injury proneness and how badly Djokovic owns that match up. And the up and comers are a long way from #1, as that would require going beyond acquiring the ability to win slams, but to be far more consistent than any of them are now. I do think the young players will need to start winning slams atleast a whole year before any of them gets to #1.
 

RaulRamirez

Hall of Fame
I expect Djokovic to hold onto it at least until the conclusion of Wimbledon. So he has another six months left.
Agreed. That seems practically mathematically secure.

Unlike what some others have posted, by the end of this year's WTF, of course, only his 2,000 points from today and the small amount of points he had coming in (90) are guaranteed. That said, he has the best chance, if he stays healthy, to be YE#1 again.
 
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Deleted member 77403

Guest
Agreed. That seems practically mathematically secure.

Unlike what some others have posted, by the end of this year's WTF, of course, only his 2,000 points from today and the small amount of points he had coming in (90) are guaranteed. That said, he has the best chance, if he stays healthy, to be YE#1 again.
I think the chances of him going wall to wall world number one are quite high to be honest.
 
He just mentioned that he's played to little in recent times so playing all three in February would be great. Take the bull by the horns.
I’m not a fan, but if I were, I would hope he played at least two golden spring events. I’d skip Acapulco and save hard court tournaments for ones that really matter, and instead play Rio and either Sao Paolo or Buenos Aires or both.
 

Firstservingman

Talk Tennis Guru
If Nadal plays all the Masters he's an idiot, even if he has a great chance to win them. His 120% focus now has to be on winning RG and the other two slams. If he walks away slamless this year it's going to be a huge blow for him.
 

Red Rick

Talk Tennis Guru
2600 something poitns behind

Mathematically secure until until IW I think? Losing it after IW requires NAdal to play and win Rotterdam, Rio, Acapulco, a 250 AND Indian Wells.

Realistically, he has it until Wimbledon for sure.


Scheduling will definitely be interesting. Will any of them play before IW?
 

S'in-net

Semi-Pro
Nadal already stated in post finals press conference that he only definitely plans Acapulco/IW at this early point

Miami not even concretely mentioned
 

TheGhostOfAgassi

Talk Tennis Guru
5 Wimbledons! Love the sound of that.
I wouldnt mind Novak winning 5 more Wimbledons.
He is 30? 31? Then he has to win one every year until he is 36?
He should ditch clay for good. Focus on Wimbledon instead. He will never get the RG slam record anyway :giggle::p
 
Djokovic now on week #252 as #1. He's guaranteed at least another seven (week 1 of RG, week 2 of RG, week of Stuttgart, week of Halle/Queen's, week of Antalya, week 1 of Wimbledon, week 2 of Wimbledon), which takes him to at least 259 weeks as #1. Given his lead, it's not at all likely he'll lose the top ranking the week after Wimbledon, either, which would make it 260 weeks, and in effect he'd be set through Cincinnati in that eventuality, which would take him to 264 weeks. If he held it after Cincinnati, he'd get another three (week of Winston Salem plus both weeks of US Open). He definitely could lose it right after the US Open, which would see his current run end at 267 weeks, one week shy of tying Connors.
 

Backspin1183

G.O.A.T.
He will have it at least until USO. Even then, if Nadal hasn't performed great post RG or goes away again with an injury, Nole will have another year end #1 again and will likely break the weeks at #1 record by next year.
 

kevaninho

Hall of Fame
He will have it at least until USO. Even then, if Nadal hasn't performed great post RG or goes away again with an injury, Nole will have another year end #1 again and will likely break the weeks at #1 record by next year.
Well itll be difficult for Nadal to go to the SF of Wimbledon again. Then he has Canada to defend and a SF run at the USO.
With Nadals injury struggles especially on HC, I don't see anyone taking the #1 from Djokovic unless he majorly flops at Queens, Wimbledon, Cinci and the USO.
 

Sephiroth

Professional
252 weeks wow that is very impressive. I do admit I wish Nadal had more weeks as #1 but I guess it's fitting it'd be Djokovic given it is his decade and he's much more consistent across the tour, but Nadal has had a major say in it too. Imo Djokovic deserves to surpass Connors, Lendl and Sampras, that's about 34 weeks I think.

In this aspect I always thought Djokovic was the more dominant one which is hard to argue tbh

 

BGod

Legend
Djokovic now on week #252 as #1. He's guaranteed at least another seven (week 1 of RG, week 2 of RG, week of Stuttgart, week of Halle/Queen's, week of Antalya, week 1 of Wimbledon, week 2 of Wimbledon), which takes him to at least 259 weeks as #1. Given his lead, it's not at all likely he'll lose the top ranking the week after Wimbledon, either, which would make it 260 weeks, and in effect he'd be set through Cincinnati in that eventuality, which would take him to 264 weeks. If he held it after Cincinnati, he'd get another three (week of Winston Salem plus both weeks of US Open). He definitely could lose it right after the US Open, which would see his current run end at 267 weeks, one week shy of tying Connors.
The onus is definetly on the field to step up. Nadal now 500 behind in the YE race on essentially his last probable surge. After him Tsitsipas & Fed remain only other contenders.

So in terms of YE I think Novak has a lot of leeway. Roger is clearly a non-factor at USO so his only big gains moving forward would be winning Wimbledon, Halle & Cincinnati. A hiccup by Djokovic at USO could break for Federer to get some weeks at #1 and could extend if Novak didn't win Shanghai.

But it's tough seeing Roger get the YE because of Shanghai, Paris & WTF. Novak likely does better overall there but Fed would have a puncher's chance.
 
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