AO 2018 4th Round - [17] Kyrgios vs [3] Dimitrov


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Federer and Del Potro

Talk Tennis Guru
So now Rafa hasn't been struggling to break, but Kyrgios is a great server, so Rafa's success at breaking down opponents' serve in this tournament doesn't actually matter. Got it.

You could have just conceded after one post and said "you're right, I was talking out of my rear, Rafa hasn't struggled to break opponents" and this could have been avoided lol
The sheer volume of his BP's is due to quality (or lack thereof) of his opponents. Same reason Fed has so many so far. (and Federer has always been weaker on BP's which is again, something I've never argued against). He's not going to get those same numbers against higher quality players. So no, it doesn't really matter. Now if he's converting the same percentage vs NK as he is vs the inferior competition he's faced so far then yes, you're right, he'd win.

Your problem is you spliced one little thing I said and then twisted it and exaggerated it. That original comment was in the context of comparing a potential Dimitrov match versus a Kyrgios match. I don't think Kyrgios would create as many BP's on Rafa's serve as Schwartzman did, but you keep equating total bp chances to actual conversion. I have a really difficult time believing Nadal would create 18 BP chances on Kyrgios' serve. I also couldn't disagree more that Nadal's serve is anywhere near "2010 USO Nadal".

But I also have a hard time believing Nadal will play as poorly as he did tonight again all tournament. Nadal is still 10-1 against Dimitrov. All I said is I'm not convinced there is an "easier" match-up for him. They're both different, they both succumb to the pressure mentally at times, and they both are unpredictable.