AO 2019 Big 3 draws

BGod

Hall of Fame
#51
Dude that draw is tough as hell. Lol. He has to get to Zverev first which isn't a sure thing. Gulbis will make him work and Raonic could very well defeat him like at the USO.
Gulbis will lose in straights. Raonic is done. You'll see. Stan is back. His loss to Agut is ok.

One question OP. You see anyone else making the R16 besides Tsits in Fed's quarter?
Basilashvili then depends on qualifiers. Molleker, Evans and Lorenzi could make some noise.
 
#53
Neither Tsitsipas nor Cilic are in form. Tsitsipas struggled in Perth and just lost in Sydney while Cilic was injured during all the off season. I think Roger's draw is great and the biggest threat before the semi will be Basilashvili.

As for Nadal, big hitters like Berdych, Edmund and Anderson will be a real problem for him if he is not physically ready.

A SF between Roger and Anderson seem very probable in this part of the draw.
except there is no chance of Anderson beating Rafael, and even when Rafael was playing with no effort he took a set from Anderson in Abu Dhabi:)
 
#56
except there is no chance of Anderson beating Rafael, and even when Rafael was playing with no effort he took a set from Anderson in Abu Dhabi:)
Anderson played incredibly well after in the final of Abu Dhabi and in Pune. Rafa just lost his 2 last matchs and has had physical problems in all his last hard court tournaments. Let's see if he can make it to the QF first :)
 
#57
Gulbis will lose in straights. Raonic is done. You'll see. Stan is back. His loss to Agut is ok.



Basilashvili then depends on qualifiers. Molleker, Evans and Lorenzi could make some noise.
Basil would be the guy out of the group besides Tsits. Dangerous if he's on, but I don't think either will trouble Fed over the course of Bo5. I like his draw for the most part. Cilic/Khachanov will be a test in QF.
 
#60
Anderson played incredibly well after in the final of Abu Dhabi and in Pune. Rafa just lost his 2 last matchs and has had physical problems in all his last hard court tournaments. Let's see if he can make it to the QF first :)
one thing is for sure, Rafael has a far greater chance of winning this AO than Anderson does:)
 
#61
I don't want to be rude @TripleATeam. But are you suggesting another easy US Open 2018 2.0 draw for Novak before the final?
Nishikori is too easy for the Big 3 (the only exception is the US Open 2014). And Zverev seems to be injured. If Zverev were healthy that would be a more decent draw.

Again, @TripleATeam I don't want to be rude. Maybe you didn't know Zverev is injured and had to withdraw from a preparatory match before the AO?
 
#62
I don't want to be rude @TripleATeam. But are you suggesting another easy US Open 2018 2.0 draw for Novak before the final?
Nishikori is too easy for the Big 3 (the only exception is the US Open 2014). And Zverev seems to be injured. If Zverev were healthy that would be a more decent draw.

Again, @TripleATeam I don't want to be rude. Maybe you didn't know Zverev is injured and had to withdraw from a preparatory match before the AO?
I will admit, Zverev doesn't seem to be in the best shape. But as much as I appreciate the concern, @Sport, I'm not too invested in this. Feel free to discuss as you seem fit. I'm not suggesting anything, only saying who the Big 3 are likely to meet on the way to the title.

Or are you referring to the fact that I've said the draws seem decently even? I said that because Nadal also seems to be carrying some degree of injury, and I believe that Tsonga in the R2 will make up for any shortcoming in Djokovic's draw due to Nishikori or Zverev (who I do believe are decent opponents. They may not always provide challenge, but the threat of challenge is why draws are hard. We can't guarantee a "strong" opponent isn't demolished in straights, and a "weak" opponent can always upset.)

In any case, speak your mind, @Sport! I won't be offended.
I appreciate the gesture of goodwill, though. You're a good sport. :cool:
 
#66
the only thing i don't like about Rafael's draw is the fact he may have to play a couple of golden retrievers - de Minaur and Schwartzman - and actually at last year's Australian Open i remember cringing when Schwartzman took a set from Rafael because i knew it may cause physical problems for Rafael later.....and it did.....so it is very important that Rafael puts them away in straight sets:)
 
#68
as someone who likes tsonga in general, i cant remember the last time he did something of importance unfortunately.
I like him too and saw his last matches. He played very well against De Minaur and poorly against Medvedev. It just depends on how he feels the ball this day I guess. If he doesn't have a high percentage of first ball then he is no more a danger.
 
#70
I like him too and saw his last matches. He played very well against De Minaur and poorly against Medvedev. It just depends on how he feels the ball this day I guess. If he doesn't have a high percentage of first ball then he is no more a danger.
ohh thats good to know.
 

mike danny

Talk Tennis Guru
#71
Djokovic's draw is by far the toughest of the 3. But it's a bit like Rafa at FO, Djokovic at the AO carries such an aura that you can put anyone in his way and he should still clear a path.

Federer fans should be more than happy with Roger's draw.

Nadal has drawn a red-hot Berdych a round earlier than Federer did last year at the same rank, unfortunately.

Of all the notable players in the tourney I would say Stan's is the toughest draw I've seen.

Murray has also drawn poorly, and will be an early casualty (he faces an in-form RBA). People will handwring and call time on Andy's career when in reality RBA is in probably career best form atm and an extremely tough opponent.
RBA will be an extremely tough opponent because Murray is out of form. Not because he is a tough opponent. He is an easy opponent for any of the Big 4 playing well.

Only Novak fans consider him a tough opponent for some reason.
 
#72
the only thing i don't like about Rafael's draw is the fact he may have to play a couple of golden retrievers - de Minaur and Schwartzman - and actually at last year's Australian Open i remember cringing when Schwartzman took a set from Rafael because i knew it may cause physical problems for Rafael later.....and it did.....so it is very important that Rafael puts them away in straight sets:)
Rafa can break Diego's serve in every single service game. So it takes a very special effort from Diego to win a set, let alone 3 sets...
He will lose to Berdych, anyway.

deMinaur is dangerous, looking good at the moment!
 
#75
Rafa can break Diego's serve in every single service game. So it takes a very special effort from Diego to win a set, let alone 3 sets...
He will lose to Berdych, anyway.

deMinaur is dangerous, looking good at the moment!
last year Diego prevented Rafael from winning the Australian Open because he made Rafael work so hard that I believe it led to Rafael's injury in the Cilic match, so even though its impossible for Diego to beat Rafael (and probably impossible for Alex to beat Rafael) these golden retrievers are a HUGE danger (not to win but to DAMAGE Rafael) because they make Rafael run a lot more than usual and it leads to injury:)
 
#76
I don't want to be rude @TripleATeam. But are you suggesting another easy US Open 2018 2.0 draw for Novak before the final?
Nishikori is too easy for the Big 3 (the only exception is the US Open 2014). And Zverev seems to be injured. If Zverev were healthy that would be a more decent draw.

Again, @TripleATeam I don't want to be rude. Maybe you didn't know Zverev is injured and had to withdraw from a preparatory match before the AO?
Zverev is training hard, based on some practice videos I've seen from the AO. I don't think he's injured tbh. Maybe instead of playing Auckland he just decided to practice in Melbourne, that's all!
 
#77
last year Diego prevented Rafael from winning the Australian Open because he made Rafael work so hard that I believe it led to Rafael's injury in the Cilic match, so even though its impossible for Diego to beat Rafael (and probably impossible for Alex to beat Rafael) they are a HUGE danger because they make Rafael run a lot more than usual and it leads to injury:)
I hear you - but this is implied in the BO5 format, except for RG in Rafa's case :cool:

Fed drew Tsistipas in R4. That's a potensial 5 setter with 5 tiebreaks, based on their meeting a few days ago :alien:
 

weakera

Hall of Fame
#81
last year Diego prevented Rafael from winning the Australian Open because he made Rafael work so hard that I believe it led to Rafael's injury in the Cilic match, so even though its impossible for Diego to beat Rafael (and probably impossible for Alex to beat Rafael) these golden retrievers are a HUGE danger (not to win but to DAMAGE Rafael) because they make Rafael run a lot more than usual and it leads to injury:)
Roig, Moya, etc. have been saying it all offseason. Rafa is going to at least TRY to shorten points this season.
 
#82
I hear you - but this is implied in the BO5 format, except for RG in Rafa's case :cool:

Fed drew Tsistipas in R4. That's a potensial 5 setter with 5 tiebreaks, based on their meeting a few days ago :alien:
99% of players on tour play shorter rallies than Diego, so that's what makes him a unique problem for Rafael if the match goes 4 sets.
4 sets of physical hardcourt tennis is a problem for Rafael at this age, similar to what happened at the US Open last year when Thiem made Rafael work like crazy for 5 sets and then Rafael couldn't play Del Potro much.
Whereas Berdych doesn't make Rafael run much at all by comparison:)
Roig, Moya, etc. have been saying it all offseason. Rafa is going to at least TRY to shorten points this season.
absolutely, and the new service motion will hopefully generate some quick points too:)
 
#85
As usual Djokovic has to fight though the toughest draw. Tsonga R2? Shapo R3 and Medvedev who is playing really well in R4. An Nishikori who is coming from a title winning week? Gtfo.
 

Tennis_Hands

Talk Tennis Guru
#87
This is becoming a tradition I rather enjoy. Enjoy!

Djokovic:
R128: Qualifier
R64: Tsonga
R32: Shapovalov
R16: Medvedev
QF: Nishikori
SF: Zverev
F: Nadal/Federer

Nadal:
R128: Duckworth
R64: Ebden/Struff
R32: de Minaur
R16: Edmund/Berdych/Schwartzman
QF: Dimitrov/Isner/Anderson
SF: Federer
F: Djokovic/Zverev

Federer:
R128: Istomin (Djokovic slayer)
R64: Qualifier
R32: Monfils
R16: Tsitsipas/Basilashvili
QF: Khachanov/RBA/Cilic
SF: Nadal
F: Djokovic/Zverev

R128: Bedene
R64: Chardy/Humbert
R32: Simon
R16: Chung/Kyrgios/Wawrinka/Raonic
QF: Coric/Thiem
SF: Djokovic
F: Nadal/Federer
Highest ranked projected opponent per round:

Djokovic

R128: Q
R64: 177
R32: 27
R16: 16
QF: 9
SF: 4
F: 2

Nadal

R128: 238
R64: 47
R32: 29
R16: 14
QF: 6
SF: 3
F: 1

Federer

R128: 99
R64: Q
R32: 32
R16: 15
QF: 7
SF: 2
F:1

:cool:
 
#91
Happy with Novak’s draw. Looks like he got great chance. Finally fed and nadal in same side of the draw. Hopefully that semi happens. Plus hope Djoko side of draw starts first. Could be Djoko v Rafa or Djoko or fed final.

Fed has it tough to defend his title! Go Novak!
 
#92
Happy with Novak’s draw. Looks like he got great chance. Finally fed and nadal in same side of the draw. Hopefully that semi happens. Plus hope Djoko side of draw starts first. Could be Djoko v Rafa or Djoko or fed final.

Fed has it tough to defend his title! Go Novak!
Yes, Novak has a fantastic draw. He has an historic opportunity here. Federer's draw is arguably the most difficult of the Big 3, so I think now Novak should be the one and only favorite here. 15 is coming!
 
#93
Yes, Novak has a fantastic draw. He has an historic opportunity here. Federer's draw is arguably the most difficult of the Big 3, so I think now Novak should be the one and only favorite here. 15 is coming!
Yeah, I think the fact that Federer is in nadal’s side, boosts Djoko’s chances even more. Zverev is no sure thing to get to semi, he doesn’t bring it yet in slams and is suspect to injury.

The others are tricky but Novak won’t be that concerned. He owns kei and Tsonga many times. The others young guns are decent but not sure if they ready to beat Djoko in a major yet.

Khachanov and co who have beat him in past are not in his path. If you’d offered me that draw I would take it!
 

Tennis_Hands

Talk Tennis Guru
#96
People should look more into the respective games of the players and form, rather than just rankings.

Nadal's draw looks easy because of the combination of players that have similar game, but are of a much much lesser quality, or players that haven't done anything for quite a while.

Djokovic's draw is significantly more difficult, because not only he meets more in form players, but they have strengths different than his own, and can cause a lot of problems, if they catch fire. Still, he gets a much necessary break in the QF, just before the final push, as Nishikori peaked too early for this part of the season (prediction either he doesn't reach the QF, or gets there injured and goes down easily).

Federer’s draw is the hardest, as he cannot (and never will) catch a break from playing players that are just breaking through (similar to his history with Del Po), which means that they are motivated and hungry, on top of being in form.

The two dangerous floaters, and the seriously ramping up pressure by meeting ever more quality opponent in every round makes his draw impossible to get through without arriving in the latter stages/ final in bad condition.

Odds: Djokovic as a favourite, followed by Nadal, and then Federer.

Waiting for a first time winner in Cilic or possibly one of the breakthrough players though.

:cool:
 
#99
Never been a big fan of paying too much attention to the projected draws especially for the AO. All it takes is an upset or two and suddenly a guy has a shoe-in to the final.
 
99% of players on tour play shorter rallies than Diego, so that's what makes him a unique problem for Rafael if the match goes 4 sets.
4 sets of physical hardcourt tennis is a problem for Rafael at this age, similar to what happened at the US Open last year when Thiem made Rafael work like crazy for 5 sets and then Rafael couldn't play Del Potro much.
Whereas Berdych doesn't make Rafael run much at all by comparison:)

absolutely, and the new service motion will hopefully generate some quick points too:)
Would not be so sure about it. For example both Murray and Djokovic play more 10+ rallies than Diego. Also Simon, de Minaur or Millman play much more such a rallies. That is 4 players out of top 50 (+ 1 who would be there if healthy) who usually play longer rallies than Diego.
(all as per tennisabstract.com)
 
Top