AO 2019 Big 3 draws

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Deleted member 77403

Guest
People should look more into the respective games of the players and form, rather than just rankings.

Nadal's draw looks easy because of the combination of players that have similar game, but are of a much much lesser quality, or players that haven't done anything for quite a while.

Djokovic's draw is significantly more difficult, because not only he meets more in form players, but they have strengths different than his own, and can cause a lot of problems, if they catch fire. Still, he gets a much necessary break in the QF, just before the final push, as Nishikori peaked too early for this part of the season (prediction either he doesn't reach the QF, or gets there injured and goes down easily).

Federer’s draw is the hardest, as he cannot (and never will) catch a break from playing players that are just breaking through (similar to his history with Del Po), which means that they are motivated and hungry, on top of being in form.

The two dangerous floaters, and the seriously ramping up pressure by meeting ever more quality opponent in every round makes his draw impossible to get through without arriving in the latter stages/ final in bad condition.

Odds: Djokovic as a favourite, followed by Nadal, and then Federer.

Waiting for a first time winner in Cilic or possibly one of the breakthrough players though.

:cool:
Cilic has it hard, Federer, Nadal and Djokovic in succession on his projected path. All members of big three have a better chance than him IMO.
 

Tennis_Hands

Talk Tennis Guru
Cilic has it hard, Federer, Nadal and Djokovic in succession on his projected path. All members of big three have a better chance than him IMO.
I think that he is capable of doing it, and I rate his chances better than Federer’s right now.

Anyway, if not him, let's hope that one of the youngsters holds the Norman Brookes trophy come the winner presentation.

:cool:
 

EasyGoing

Professional
With how the tournament unfolded, no he didn't have the toughest draw.
He doesn’t have it now either: a just back from injury ranked 200 old Tsonga, might be good in 5 years Shapo, always lose to top guys attitude Nishikori represent 0 challenge to Nole. The only remotely possibly dangerous opponent is Medvedev, but his poor record against Coric pretty much tells us how it’s going to end. At this point I’d say the qualifier might give him the most trouble :)

If Nole doesn’t make the semis easily, it’ll be the biggest shock of the year.
 

tennisaddict

Bionic Poster
I think that he is capable of doing it, and I rate his chances better than Federer’s right now.

Anyway, if not him, let's hope that one of the youngsters holds the Norman Brookes trophy come the winner presentation.

:cool:
There is a 0% chance of ANY player beating Federer, Djokovic and Nadal in succession. Only players remotely capable of that are Del Po, Stan and Tsonga and they are not doing in their current health and form
 

Tennis_Hands

Talk Tennis Guru
There is a 0% chance of ANY player beating Federer, Djokovic and Nadal in succession. Only players remotely capable of that are Del Po, Stan and Tsonga and they are not doing in their current health and form
You underestimate what age can do to the recovery of a player.

If Cilic avoids playing long matches in the early rounds he can muscle his way through at least two of them.

Last year he didn't have a problem taking two of those players to 5 sets.

:cool:
 

DSH

Hall of Fame
People should look more into the respective games of the players and form, rather than just rankings.

Nadal's draw looks easy because of the combination of players that have similar game, but are of a much much lesser quality, or players that haven't done anything for quite a while.

Djokovic's draw is significantly more difficult, because not only he meets more in form players, but they have strengths different than his own, and can cause a lot of problems, if they catch fire. Still, he gets a much necessary break in the QF, just before the final push, as Nishikori peaked too early for this part of the season (prediction either he doesn't reach the QF, or gets there injured and goes down easily).

Federer’s draw is the hardest, as he cannot (and never will) catch a break from playing players that are just breaking through (similar to his history with Del Po), which means that they are motivated and hungry, on top of being in form.

The two dangerous floaters, and the seriously ramping up pressure by meeting ever more quality opponent in every round makes his draw impossible to get through without arriving in the latter stages/ final in bad condition.

Odds: Djokovic as a favourite, followed by Nadal, and then Federer.

Waiting for a first time winner in Cilic or possibly one of the breakthrough players though.

:cool:
mmm...
cilic had to face tomic in 1st round, any result would not surprise me.
the croatian is not known to handle the pressure well
 

Federev

Hall of Fame
Fed's draw is rather tough.

Really, it would not be a shock to see him lose to any of those seeds post-Round 2 if they bring an A game and he brings a C game on the day.
 

Raphael Nadal

Professional
the US Open was a grindfest, and that is why Rafael has since changed his service motion:)
“We’re looking to maximise damage from the onset, and one way to do that is with a faster, more aggressive serve,” Moya told ATPTour.com following his afternoon practice session with Nadal. “We’ve been working out the mechanics of his serve; his motion now is more fluid. Before, the ball he served lost power immediately after bouncing. That isn’t the case anymore; his serve maintains speed now after making contact with the court, making it that much more potent.”

According to Moya, the idea to alter Nadal’s service swing was conceived following Nadal’s semi-final showdown against Juan Martin del Potro at the 2018 US Open. Nadal was forced to retire from that match while trailing 6-7(3), 2-6 due to a knee tendon injury. Nadal and his team identified the slight weakness in his serve and devised a plan to improve the motion.

“These changes came following that match at the US Open,” Moya said. “Rafa was all for the changes, even if meant added work.

“He was the first to identify the weakness in his serve, and we as a team formulated an approach to improve it. We were sidetracked [in late 2018] because of the abdominal injury and the right ankle surgery but finally got around to physically working out the new service motion after recovery. I’m happy to say he’s now comfortable with the revamped serve motion.”
https://www.atptour.com/es/news/nadal-cambio-saque-australian-open-2019
 

Service Ace

Hall of Fame
If Fed and Nadal meet in the semifinals, Djokovic is guaranteed the title. No way do those two rally from beating up on one another to then go on to beat Djokovic in a final.

By that logic, Fed has the toughest draw, followed by Nadal, then Djokovic.
 

Sysyphus

Talk Tennis Guru
Rafaello can hardly complain about his draw, though I could see Anderson stopping him if he once more carries dubious form into a HC tournament.

Federer has some more threats but little enough that he ultimately has only himself to blame if he doesn't go deep.

Noé has the most tricky opponents, but nothing that he won't handle.

QFs:
Djokovic d. Nishikori
Raonic d. Coric
Federer d. Cilic
Anderson d. Rafaello

SFs:
Djokovic d. Raonic
Anderson d. Fraud

Final:
Anderson d. Djokovic, 11–10 in the fifth in the fifth or whatever the new scoring system dictates.

There you have it, the answer sheet.
 

RaulRamirez

Hall of Fame
Obviously, we'll see how it all plays out, and it will be nice to actually view big-time tennis again.

In theory, the #1 seed (Novak) should have a slightly easier draw (on paper) than the #2 (Rafa), which should be slightly easier than #3 (Roger) and so forth.

I think that the draw is fair, and none of the Big 3 got Stan (who may be dangerous, given his pedigree) in their quarter.

I would still like numerical brackets, if you will, for all tourneys, so you know that on paper, #1 gets 64, 32, 16, 8, 4 and 2, and # #2 gets 63, 31, 15, 7, 3 and 1, and so on. (At least, do this from the Round of 32 on, perhaps, R of 64 on). That's my opinion, of course. At least, #1 is matched with #4, and #2 with #3 in the semis.
 

Raphael Nadal

Professional
If Fed and Nadal meet in the semifinals, Djokovic is guaranteed the title. No way do those two rally from beating up on one another to then go on to beat Djokovic in a final.

By that logic, Fed has the toughest draw, followed by Nadal, then Djokovic.
but Rafael beat Federer in straight sets at 2014ao, expending minimal effort:)
 

Raphael Nadal

Professional
Rafaello can hardly complain about his draw, though I could see Anderson stopping him if he once more carries dubious form into a HC tournament.

Federer has some more threats but little enough that he ultimately has only himself to blame if he doesn't go deep.

Noé has the most tricky opponents, but nothing that he won't handle.

QFs:
Djokovic d. Nishikori
Raonic d. Coric
Federer d. Cilic
Anderson d. Rafaello

SFs:
Djokovic d. Raonic
Anderson d. Fraud

Final:
Anderson d. Djokovic, 11–10 in the fifth in the fifth or whatever the new scoring system dictates.

There you have it, the answer sheet.
Anderson has only ever taken ONE set from Rafael, so its not a real match-up.....and in their Abu Dhabi exhibition Rafael was hitting at half pace and still took a set, so Anderson will be annihilated if they meet at the AO:)
 

EasyGoing

Professional
Obviously, we'll see how it all plays out, and it will be nice to actually view big-time tennis again.

In theory, the #1 seed (Novak) should have a slightly easier draw (on paper) than the #2 (Rafa), which should be slightly easier than #3 (Roger) and so forth.

I think that the draw is fair, and none of the Big 3 got Stan (who may be dangerous, given his pedigree) in their quarter.

I would still like numerical brackets, if you will, for all tourneys, so you know that on paper, #1 gets 64, 32, 16, 8, 4 and 2, and # #2 gets 63, 31, 15, 7, 3 and 1, and so on. (At least, do this from the Round of 32 on, perhaps, R of 64 on). That's my opinion, of course. At least, #1 is matched with #4, and #2 with #3 in the semis.
I am sorry but this might be the worst idea I ever heard. If anything, I’d bring back the 16 seeds so that we have at least some interest in how the top players do before QF’s.
 
Rafaello can hardly complain about his draw, though I could see Anderson stopping him if he once more carries dubious form into a HC tournament.

Federer has some more threats but little enough that he ultimately has only himself to blame if he doesn't go deep.

Noé has the most tricky opponents, but nothing that he won't handle.

QFs:
Djokovic d. Nishikori
Raonic d. Coric
Federer d. Cilic
Anderson d. Rafaello

SFs:
Djokovic d. Raonic
Anderson d. Fraud

Final:
Anderson d. Djokovic, 11–10 in the fifth in the fifth or whatever the new scoring system dictates.

There you have it, the answer sheet.
Your mistake was thinking that Djokovic would beat Raonic
 

RaulRamirez

Hall of Fame
I am sorry but this might be the worst idea I ever heard. If anything, I’d bring back the 16 seeds so that we have at least some interest in how the top players do before QF’s.
You don't have to be "sorry", but what is your (rather strong) objection to matching players fairly according to their seeds/rankings? I am NOT suggesting re-bracketing after upsets, and upsets can, of course, still occur this way. All it would do is to take some suspense out of the draw. But why shouldn't (on paper) a higher ranking earn you a slightly easier draw?

I propose doing this at least from the R of 32 on...there would still be some "suspense of the draw" in the first two rounds of majors.
 

DSH

Hall of Fame
Rafaello can hardly complain about his draw, though I could see Anderson stopping him if he once more carries dubious form into a HC tournament.

Federer has some more threats but little enough that he ultimately has only himself to blame if he doesn't go deep.

Noé has the most tricky opponents, but nothing that he won't handle.

QFs:
Djokovic d. Nishikori
Raonic d. Coric
Federer d. Cilic
Anderson d. Rafaello

SFs:
Djokovic d. Raonic
Anderson d. Fraud

Final:
Anderson d. Djokovic, 11–10 in the fifth in the fifth or whatever the new scoring system dictates.

There you have it, the answer sheet.
After this, Anderson will surpass Coetzee in South African hearts.
 

DSH

Hall of Fame
Minimial effort? Did you not see Nadal break down in his next match? Did you not see him cry in pain? Did you not see him lose to a player he had never lost to before?
he beat monfils, nishikori, dimitrov and federer in a row before his controversial match against wawrinka.
 
Nice draw for Fed. He can make the final here with no big problems. Khachanov probably is Fed's biggest obstacle to the final IF Karen makes it to QFs.

Tough draw for Djoker.
He's still the man to beat obviously but I don't think we'll see him in the AO final this year. He needs to give it his best from the beginning and he's not the type of player who likes to give it his best every match.

Joke draw for Nadal as usual.
I thought he has no chance to do anything in AO19 but now after looking at his draw, I believe it's possible for him to win the whole thing even. All it takes is Federer and Djokovic going home early and USO17 happens again.
 

clout

Hall of Fame
I like Fed and Nadals draw. If they’re 100% health-wise, I think their path to the semis is pretty clear. As for Novak, his path seems a bit tougher. He’s definitely got to be at his best these next 2 weeks to pocket #7 down under. Overall, it should be a great 2 weeks of tennis!
 

DSH

Hall of Fame
Federer had the worst US Open draws last year as they were planned to meet in the QF. But after Federer lost to Millman, it turned out that Rafa's draw was the worst.
Federer was in terrible condition unlike now.
djokovic the number 6 seed, had the easiest draw of of his career at the open.
 
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TennisaGoGo

Semi-Pro
Rafa has by far the easiest draw. Looking at the bracket, there's not a ranked player within a hundred miles of him. Who's going to beat him. de Minuar? Just like Rublev, right?

Fed will lose to (name player here) the round before he has to face Rafa, and Novak will beat him in the final. See you guys in June.
 

RaulRamirez

Hall of Fame
he beat monfils, nishikori, dimitrov and federer in a row before his controversial match against wawrinka.
I don't know that it was controversial, except for those who wanted to make it so. Stan played a great tourney, and deserved the title. Rafa gave it all he had that day, as he always does, but it wasn't enough this time. Injuries are a part of the sport. The only mini-controversy, I guess, is conjecture over who would have won if Rafa were 100%. But again, injuries are a part of the sport, and much as I wanted Rafa to be at his best and win, Stan deserved it.
 

RaulRamirez

Hall of Fame
Rafa has by far the easiest draw. Looking at the bracket, there's not a ranked player within a hundred miles of him. Who's going to beat him. de Minuar? Just like Rublev, right?

Fed will lose to (name player here) the round before he has to face Rafa, and Novak will beat him in the final. See you guys in June.
Let's look at Rafa's draw. Really, we're talking the Round of 32, the Round of 16 and the QFs, as one would expect him as the #2 to draw #3 (Fed) in the semis and obviously, meet #1 (Novak) in the finals. In the first two rounds, a player could get a dangerous floater like Stan in the first round or two, which didn't happen to any of The Big 3.

In the R of 32 (one would expect him to draw #31), he gets #27 de Minaur - a crowd favorite, and a tougher than expected draw for this round.

In the R of 16 (expectation of #15), he gets #13 Edmund ...I'd say Edmund is a Top 15 candidate to win this...not easy.
In the QFs, he gets (expectation of #7), he gets #5 Anderson.

How is this an easy draw?
Sorry to spoil your narrative with logic.
 

RaulRamirez

Hall of Fame
Rafa has by far the easiest draw. Looking at the bracket, there's not a ranked player within a hundred miles of him. Who's going to beat him. de Minuar? Just like Rublev, right?

Fed will lose to (name player here) the round before he has to face Rafa, and Novak will beat him in the final. See you guys in June.
Let's look at Rafa's draw. Really, we're talking the Round of 32, the Round of 16 and the QFs, as one would expect him as the #2 to draw #3 (Fed) in the semis and obviously, meet #1 (Novak) in the finals. In the first two rounds, a player could get a dangerous floater like Stan in the first round or two, which didn't happen to any of The Big 3.

In the R of 32 (one would expect him to draw #31), he gets #27 de Minaur - a crowd favorite, and a tougher than expected draw for this round.

In the R of 16 (expectation of #15), he gets #13 Edmund ...I'd say Edmund is a Top 15 candidate to win this...not easy.
In the QFs, he gets (expectation of #7), he gets #5 Anderson.

How is this an easy draw?
Sorry to spoil your narrative with logic.
 

Tennis_Hands

Talk Tennis Guru
Let's look at Rafa's draw. Really, we're talking the Round of 32, the Round of 16 and the QFs, as one would expect him as the #2 to draw #3 (Fed) in the semis and obviously, meet #1 (Novak) in the finals. In the first two rounds, a player could get a dangerous floater like Stan in the first round or two, which didn't happen to any of The Big 3.

In the R of 32 (one would expect him to draw #31), he gets #27 de Minaur - a crowd favorite, and a tougher than expected draw for this round.

In the R of 16 (expectation of #15), he gets #13 Edmund ...I'd say Edmund is a Top 15 candidate to win this...not easy.
In the QFs, he gets (expectation of #7), he gets #5 Anderson.

How is this an easy draw?
Sorry to spoil your narrative with logic.
Logic?




:cool:
 
D

Deleted member 77403

Guest
And literally hasn't beat him since lol. Not to mention he hasn't even been able to finish a hard court tournament in over a year. You're making me rethink that maybe Nadal has the toughest draw of them all.
He did win Canada though...
 

mike danny

Talk Tennis Guru
I agree Hitman! I enjoyed the Wimbledon 2018 SF so much that I wasn't that bothered by Nadal's loss. The level of tennis, the tension, the drama, the nerves. I enjoyed it so much that I ended up satisfied after the match.

Let's hope this AO brings some epic 5 setters!
According to @Hitman, it should be epic. 2008 Wimb epic -> 2018 Wimb epic. 2009 AO epic ->2019 AO ???
 
D

Deleted member 77403

Guest
I agree Hitman! I enjoyed the Wimbledon 2018 SF so much that I wasn't that bothered by Nadal's loss. The level of tennis, the tension, the drama, the nerves. I enjoyed it so much that I ended up satisfied after the match.

Let's hope this AO brings some epic 5 setters!
Yes, good tennis first and foremost.
 

oldmanfan

Hall of Fame
as someone who likes tsonga in general, i cant remember the last time he did something of importance unfortunately.
Tsonga blew past Federer at RG13 QF in straights, but then fell meekly in straights to Ferrer (!) while having home crowd advantage. In hindsight, it was Fed's worse full year since 2003, but it was big then bc beating slam-Fed in QF is always a big deal (look at WB18 QF when Fed lost being nowhere near his best, but it didn't stop the media from going into a frenzy).

Tsonga won Canada2014 the following year, going thru Djokovic(3R), Murray(QF), Dimitrov(SF), Federer(F). It was an insane run, but it was not a slam, unfortunately.
 

TennisaGoGo

Semi-Pro
Let's look at Rafa's draw. Really, we're talking the Round of 32, the Round of 16 and the QFs, as one would expect him as the #2 to draw #3 (Fed) in the semis and obviously, meet #1 (Novak) in the finals. In the first two rounds, a player could get a dangerous floater like Stan in the first round or two, which didn't happen to any of The Big 3.

In the R of 32 (one would expect him to draw #31), he gets #27 de Minaur - a crowd favorite, and a tougher than expected draw for this round.

In the R of 16 (expectation of #15), he gets #13 Edmund ...I'd say Edmund is a Top 15 candidate to win this...not easy.
In the QFs, he gets (expectation of #7), he gets #5 Anderson.

How is this an easy draw?
Sorry to spoil your narrative with logic.
If they went by the numbers (as you lay out above) he’d have Medvedev (15) into Thiem (7). A much tougher road imo than Edmund/Anderson. Perhaps Edmund will prove me wrong but nothing in his game makes me think he can win 3 sets off Rafa. Anderson has no chance in hell.
 

RaulRamirez

Hall of Fame
If they went by the numbers (as you lay out above) he’d have Medvedev (15) into Thiem (7). A much tougher road imo than Edmund/Anderson. Perhaps Edmund will prove me wrong but nothing in his game makes me think he can win 3 sets off Rafa. Anderson has no chance in hell.
Edmund and Medvedev is a wash for me. Of course, Thiem gave Rafa a great battle at the USO, though Anderson has made two recent slam finals (HC and grass) to Thiem's one on clay. deMinaur (or possibly Shapo) may be the toughest he could have met up with in the R of 32.
 

Towny

Professional
Not sure why everyone's saying Novak has the toughest draw. He definitely has the hardest early rounds, but Fed has Cilic (last year's AO finalist) in the QF and Nadal in the SF. Djokovic has Nishikori in the QF, whom he straight setted at the USO last year, and Zverev in the SF, who's very unlikely to make it. Stan might, but he's not exactly in strong form. I would say Federer has the tougher draw of the two.
 

TripleATeam

Legend
Not sure why everyone's saying Novak has the toughest draw. He definitely has the hardest early rounds, but Fed has Cilic (last year's AO finalist) in the QF and Nadal in the SF. Djokovic has Nishikori in the QF, whom he straight setted at the USO last year, and Zverev in the SF, who's very unlikely to make it. Stan might, but he's not exactly in strong form. I would say Federer has the tougher draw of the two.
Cilic:

ATP WTF: Straight set by Djokovic and Zverev. 3 set win over Isner.
Paris: Win over Dimitrov, 3 set loss to Djokovic.
Basel: R16 loss to Copil.
Shanghai: 3 set loss to Jarry in R1.
Tokyo: 3 set loss to Struff in R1.
US Open: 5 set QF loss to Nishikori.

Not overly consistent. Plus his H2H against Fed is 1-9. Nadal is also not a guarantee to make the semis.
 

Towny

Professional
Cilic:

ATP WTF: Straight set by Djokovic and Zverev. 3 set win over Isner.
Paris: Win over Dimitrov, 3 set loss to Djokovic.
Basel: R16 loss to Copil.
Shanghai: 3 set loss to Jarry in R1.
Tokyo: 3 set loss to Struff in R1.
US Open: 5 set QF loss to Nishikori.

Not overly consistent. Plus his H2H against Fed is 1-9. Nadal is also not a guarantee to make the semis.
He wasn't in a better position coming into the AO last year. Cilic really isn't all that consistent outside the slams. He made the QF of the most recent slam and lost in 5 sets. It's enough for me to be wary of him.

Nadal may well not make the SF but you could play that game with anyone. Nadal is clearly more likely to make the SF than Zverev. I know he won the WTF, but he's been good at BO3 for 2 years - it's not yet translated into slams. It might this time, but it's unlikely.

The way I see it, 5 players have made the AO final in the last 3 years - Djokovic, Murray, Federer, Nadal and Cilic. Federer has a decent chance of facing 3 in order to win. Nadal 2. Djokovic will only face 1 at most.
 

TripleATeam

Legend
He wasn't in a better position coming into the AO last year. Cilic really isn't all that consistent outside the slams. He made the QF of the most recent slam and lost in 5 sets. It's enough for me to be wary of him.

Nadal may well not make the SF but you could play that game with anyone. Nadal is clearly more likely to make the SF than Zverev. I know he won the WTF, but he's been good at BO3 for 2 years - it's not yet translated into slams. It might this time, but it's unlikely.

The way I see it, 5 players have made the AO final in the last 3 years - Djokovic, Murray, Federer, Nadal and Cilic. Federer has a decent chance of facing 3 in order to win. Nadal 2. Djokovic will only face 1 at most.
Fair enough. Cilic is dangerous, but I don't see him really being a threat. The same goes for Nishikori.
 

RaulRamirez

Hall of Fame
He wasn't in a better position coming into the AO last year. Cilic really isn't all that consistent outside the slams. He made the QF of the most recent slam and lost in 5 sets. It's enough for me to be wary of him.

Nadal may well not make the SF but you could play that game with anyone. Nadal is clearly more likely to make the SF than Zverev. I know he won the WTF, but he's been good at BO3 for 2 years - it's not yet translated into slams. It might this time, but it's unlikely.

The way I see it, 5 players have made the AO final in the last 3 years - Djokovic, Murray, Federer, Nadal and Cilic. Federer has a decent chance of facing 3 in order to win. Nadal 2. Djokovic will only face 1 at most.
I don't see a ton of difference in difficulty (on paper) among the quarters. Also, the #1 seed should have a slightly easier path than the #2, and so on. #2 and #3 should always be the semi matchup, assuming no upsets. In the paper QFs, Anderson may post a bigger threat than any of Cilic, Nish or Thiem.
 

Towny

Professional
I don't see a ton of difference in difficulty (on paper) among the quarters. Also, the #1 seed should have a slightly easier path than the #2, and so on. #2 and #3 should always be the semi matchup, assuming no upsets. In the paper QFs, Anderson may post a bigger threat than any of Cilic, Nish or Thiem.
I don't take issue with Djokovic having the easier draw (if he has). Federer is number 3 so he was always going to face one of Djokodal in the SF. I think facing Nadal is preferable.

The main thing is that a number of posters have been saying that Djokovic has a really tough draw while Nadal has a joke draw, when the reality is that Nadal will likely have to face Federer in order to get to the final, an opponent tougher than anyone in Djokovic's half.

I think there's not a huge amount in it regarding the QF but I'd still rate Cilic as the toughest opponent. He's a slam champion who was in the final last year, taking Federer to 5. Anderson could be tough but he's not really displayed the level Cilic has IMO. Likewise with Nishikori
 

Pheasant

Hall of Fame
In this case Djokovic has the easiest draw by far. Djokovic is the AO 2019 champion.

Federer has the most difficult.

Nadal in between.
This is spot-on. I don’t think that Fed will get through Tsitsipas, Khachanov, then Cilic, then Nadal. Unfortunately, I see Fed missing the semis for only the 2nd time in the last 16 years at this event.

Nishi has been the Big 3’s whooping boy. Djokovic will punish him. Heck, I wouldn’t even worry about the 37 year old Fed against Nishi. Zverev likely won’t be in the semis. He never has been. I see an easy path to the final for Djoker, while his opponent is gassed.

Given the draw, I give Djoker an 80% chance of hoisting the trophy. Rafa should make the final. If he does, he will be gassed. But Rafa’s draw isn’t easy either.
 
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raph6

Semi-Pro
On a 1-5 spectrum (1 easy, 3 average, 5 tough) I'd rate the draws as follows:

Djokovic: 4.5
Federer: 4.0
Zverev: 2.25
Nadal: 2.0
WTF, Zverev has the toughest draw of them all ! Chardy who reached the SF in Brisbane for R2, the trap Simon for R3 who is really in form at the moment, then Wawrinka/Raonic/Kyrgios for the 1/8, probably Coric for the 1/4, Djokovic for the semis and finally Roger/Rafa for the final. If this is not a tough draw I don't know what it is.
 
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