AO 2019 Big 3 draws

Rafa24

Hall of Fame
Nadal has the toughest draw of the big 3 by far and as usual tennis warehouse says he has a cupcake draw. Novak plays nobody until possibly the final.....
 

heninfan99

Talk Tennis Guru
Djokovic could have a tough run ahead of him.
This is becoming a tradition I rather enjoy. Enjoy!

Djokovic:
R128: Qualifier
R64: Tsonga
R32: Shapovalov
R16: Medvedev
QF: Nishikori
SF: Zverev
F: Nadal/Federer

Nadal:
R128: Duckworth
R64: Ebden/Struff
R32: de Minaur
R16: Edmund/Berdych/Schwartzman
QF: Dimitrov/Isner/Anderson
SF: Federer
F: Djokovic/Zverev

Federer:
R128: Istomin (Djokovic slayer)
R64: Qualifier
R32: Monfils
R16: Tsitsipas/Basilashvili
QF: Khachanov/RBA/Cilic
SF: Nadal
F: Djokovic/Zverev

R128: Bedene
R64: Chardy/Humbert
R32: Simon
R16: Chung/Kyrgios/Wawrinka/Raonic
QF: Coric/Thiem
SF: Djokovic
F: Nadal/Federer
 

mike danny

Talk Tennis Guru
I don't see a ton of difference in difficulty (on paper) among the quarters. Also, the #1 seed should have a slightly easier path than the #2, and so on. #2 and #3 should always be the semi matchup, assuming no upsets. In the paper QFs, Anderson may post a bigger threat than any of Cilic, Nish or Thiem.
Good one.
 
This is spot-on. I don’t think that Fed will get through Tsitsipas, Khachanov, then Cilic, then Nadal. Unfortunately, I see Fed missing the semis for only the 2nd time in the last 16 years at this event.

Nishi has been the Big 3’s whooping boy. Djokovic will punish him. Heck, I wouldn’t even worry about the 37 year old Fed against Nishi. Zverev likely won’t be in the semis. He never has been. I see an easy path to the final for Djoker, while his opponent is gassed.

Given the draw, I give Djoker an 80% chance of hoisting the trophy. Rafa should make the final. If he does, he will be gassed. But Rafa’s draw isn’t easy either.
Pheasant, I have to give you good news. Federer can't face Tsitsipas, Khachanov and Cilic before Nadal. He can only face Tsitsipas and then either Khachanov or Cilic. Still a brutal draw, but not what you are saying.:)
 
if Murray beats Federer it would probably present Rafael with a very easy win in the SF, because you can imagine Murray being too exhausted to beat such high quality players consecutively when he's been semi-retired for a while now.... so for the sake of the AO its best that Murray doesn't beat Federer:)
 
if Murray beats Federer it would probably present Rafael with a very easy win in the SF, because you can imagine Murray being too exhausted to beat such high quality players consecutively when he's been semi-retired for a while now.... so for the sake of the AO its best that Murray doesn't beat Federer:)
There’s no way he even makes it to Federer, he’s a great player but even he can’t deal with pain for too long.
 

DSH

Professional
If they went by the numbers (as you lay out above) he’d have Medvedev (15) into Thiem (7). A much tougher road imo than Edmund/Anderson. Perhaps Edmund will prove me wrong but nothing in his game makes me think he can win 3 sets off Rafa. Anderson has no chance in hell.
no, thiem is not better than anderson in plexicushion.
of course medvedev has more potential than edmund but the british has a grand slam semifinals, the Russian nothing until now.
 

DSH

Professional
I don't see a ton of difference in difficulty (on paper) among the quarters. Also, the #1 seed should have a slightly easier path than the #2, and so on. #2 and #3 should always be the semi matchup, assuming no upsets. In the paper QFs, Anderson may post a bigger threat than any of Cilic, Nish or Thiem.
us open 2018: the number 6 seed has the easiest road to the title (and no, federer was in awful condition there)
 

DSH

Professional
This is spot-on. I don’t think that Fed will get through Tsitsipas, Khachanov, then Cilic, then Nadal. Unfortunately, I see Fed missing the semis for only the 2nd time in the last 16 years at this event.

Nishi has been the Big 3’s whooping boy. Djokovic will punish him. Heck, I wouldn’t even worry about the 37 year old Fed against Nishi. Zverev likely won’t be in the semis. He never has been. I see an easy path to the final for Djoker, while his opponent is gassed.

Given the draw, I give Djoker an 80% chance of hoisting the trophy. Rafa should make the final. If he does, he will be gassed. But Rafa’s draw isn’t easy either.
you mean khachanov or cilic in the quarterfinals.
 

Lew II

Hall of Fame
If Murray is an ATG, so is Wawirnka IMO. Wawrinka has many legendary victories against prime Djokovic.
Murray in the same era has 7 more finals, 2 more olympic golds, 13 more masters, 1 more yec, more titles, better winning percentage...

Wawrinka great career, but if we rank him as an opponent for Djokovic, was not tougher than Roddick, Hewitt were to Federer.
 
Murray in the same era has 7 more finals, 2 more olympic golds, 13 more masters, 1 more yec, more titles, better winning percentage...

Wawrinka great career, but if we rank him as an opponent for Djokovic, was not tougher than Roddick, Hewitt were to Federer.
An ATG moniker is earned, not given by way of comparing a player with other players with lesser achievements.

Murray is not an ATG.

:cool:
 
Nadal has a puff draw but he's not in great shape so we'll see what happens there.

Federer has a fair draw, first real test is Tsitsipas (or father time).

Djokovic draw is brutal. Shaps, Medvedev, Nishikori back to back.
Ah, can we please stop this about Djokovic’s draw. He’s clear favourite to win each of those three matchups. Huge shock if he loses to ANY of them at a slam he’s won 6 times.

The most I will agree to is that they could be tricky; nothing more. Brutal? No. I reckon he wins them in straights.
 
Ah, can we please stop this about Djokovic’s draw. He’s clear favourite to win each of those three matchups. Huge shock if he loses to ANY of them at a slam he’s won 6 times.

The most I will agree to is that they could be tricky; nothing more. Brutal? No. I reckon he wins them in straights.
If you really knew anything about Novak is playing, you wouldn’t say his draw is easy or it’d be a huge surprise
 
If you really knew anything about Novak is playing, you wouldn’t say his draw is easy or it’d be a huge surprise
Really? Are we talking Istomin 17 levels here? Because he’d need to be that bad for me to think he could lose best of 5 set matches to these players.

But I confess, I don’t know how Djokovic is playing right now.
 

mike danny

Talk Tennis Guru
True, but I just don't get the logic around here. You can't really judge a draw by the final couple rounds, anyway.
True, but usually the rounds beginning from the QF are the most important because that's when you start to face quality opposition. Nadal's AO 2009 draw is considered tough precisely because of his last 2 matches.

The matches before that matter too, of course and sometimes they are tougher than the final rounds: Fed's AO 2006 4th round and QF had tougher opponents than the semis and the final.
 
True, but usually the rounds beginning from the QF are the most important because that's when you start to face quality opposition. Nadal's AO 2009 draw is considered tough precisely because of his last 2 matches.

The matches before that matter too, of course and sometimes they are tougher than the final rounds: Fed's AO 2006 4th round and QF had tougher opponents than the semis and the final.
But, isn't that considered in retrospect? This year, The Big 3 have comparable paths, barring no upsets.
 
I think Djokovic will have a much easier QF and semi than Fed though. If the draws don't disintegrate.
Could be...but again, they're matched up (on paper) against their expected draw. And, you may know, I'm all for numerical brackets.

#1 gets 8 and 4; #3 gets 6 and 2. #2 (Rafa) actually, if I remember, got #5 and 3...I'd probably say #5 (Anderson) poses a greater challenge right now than either Cilic (6) or Nish (8)...so who knows.
Novak probaby drew tougher in rounds 2-4, but not enough to bellyache about.

Let's play the matches!
 
This is spot-on. I don’t think that Fed will get through Tsitsipas, Khachanov, then Cilic, then Nadal. Unfortunately, I see Fed missing the semis for only the 2nd time in the last 16 years at this event.

Nishi has been the Big 3’s whooping boy. Djokovic will punish him. Heck, I wouldn’t even worry about the 37 year old Fed against Nishi. Zverev likely won’t be in the semis. He never has been. I see an easy path to the final for Djoker, while his opponent is gassed.

Given the draw, I give Djoker an 80% chance of hoisting the trophy. Rafa should make the final. If he does, he will be gassed. But Rafa’s draw isn’t easy either.
Rafael wasn't gassed at Wimbledon when he beat Del Potro in marathon QF and almost beat Djokovic in SF.....and based on how close that match was on indoor grass its most likely an AO meeting between Rafael and Djokovic will be a 5 set thriller like 2012ao - except back then Djokovic had won 6 in a row over Rafael so Rafael had no confidence, whereas right now Rafael has plenty of confidence because of how close he was at Wimbledon.
And at this Australian Open Rafael will have 2 full days of rest between SF and Final:)
 

mike danny

Talk Tennis Guru
Could be...but again, they're matched up (on paper) against their expected draw. And, you may know, I'm all for numerical brackets.

#1 gets 8 and 4; #3 gets 6 and 2. #2 (Rafa) actually, if I remember, got #5 and 3...I'd probably say #5 (Anderson) poses a greater challenge right now than either Cilic (6) or Nish (8)...so who knows.
Novak probaby drew tougher in rounds 2-4, but not enough to bellyache about.

Let's play the matches!
Yeah, let's play the matches.

A draw will turn out tough if the players actually play well, regardless of their name or ranking. Form matter more than name or ranking.
 
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