AO 2023 Draw Top 4 Analysis

[No_Kwan_Do]

That's true, Draper is a fairly tough 1st round opponent. I suppose it could've been worse, like Thiem

You're kidding? Thiem isn't a tougher draw than Draper at the moment.

 

[DIMI_D]

Rafa got totally boned. Draper is probably the singular toughest draw you could possibly get in the 1R. Then Tiafoe in 4R again and the toughest QF in Medvedev…

Djokovic’s is very easy on paper but if the hamstring is an issue, a potential Dimitrov-PCB-Rune 3R-QF stretch is actually pretty nasty. Always the threat of Kyrgios too. If he’s healthy he wipes it but if not that’s a tough stretch while trying to play into form.

Ruud’s is incredibly weak.

FAA and Tsitsipas will duke it out for the SF spot next to Rafa/Medvedev on the top half.

I think Fritz makes SF

 

[DIMI_D]

Unless I've made some transcription errors, these are the draws. Analysis to follow.

Nadal:
R1: Draper
R2: Nakashima/McDonald
R3: Nishioka
R4: Tiafoe/Khachanov
QF: Medvedev
SF: Tsitsipas
F: Djokovic

Djokovic:
R1: RCB
R2: Dellien
R3: Dimitrov
R4: PCB/ADM
QF: Rublev/Kyrgios/Rune
SF: Fritz
F: Nadal/Tsitsipas

Tsitsipas:
R1: Halys
R2: Hijikata
R3: Botic VDZ
R4: Sinner/Musetti
QF: FAA
SF: Nadal
F: Djokovic

Ruud:
R1: Machac
R2: Brooksby
R3: ADF
R4: Berrettini/RBA
QF: Fritz/Zverev
SF: Djokovic
F: Nadal/Tsitsipas

BONUS
Medvedev:
R1: Giron
R2: Millman
R3: Korda
R4: Hurkacz/Shapo
QF: Nadal
SF: Tsitsipas
F: Djokovic

Rudd won’t make SF

 

[DSH]

Are hard courts the best surface for the British?

 

[Rosstour]

Out of these, Ruud appears to have the easiest.

Yes but he's going no further than the SF.

 

[HFK]

Tiley comes through for his boy yet again

 

[Technology Ruined Tennis]

Consensus appears to be Mad Lad's time has ended Mad Men Draper to give Rafa a chance to win his 2nd Wooden Spoon?

 

[The Guru]

Oof Rafa got screwed and Djokovic got the cushy AO draw. This year I think that means a lot. No way Rafa can make it through this draw at this age imo. But the Busta curse tho...

 

[Nadal - GOAT]

Unless I've made some transcription errors, these are the draws. Analysis to follow.

Nadal:
R1: Draper
R2: Nakashima/McDonald
R3: Nishioka
R4: Tiafoe/Khachanov
QF: Medvedev
SF: Tsitsipas
F: Djokovic

Djokovic:
R1: RCB
R2: Dellien
R3: Dimitrov
R4: PCB/ADM
QF: Rublev/Kyrgios/Rune
SF: Ruud
F: Nadal/Tsitsipas

Tsitsipas:
R1: Halys
R2: Hijikata
R3: Botic VDZ
R4: Sinner/Musetti
QF: FAA
SF: Nadal
F: Djokovic

Ruud:
R1: Machac
R2: Brooksby
R3: ADF
R4: Berrettini/RBA
QF: Fritz/Zverev
SF: Djokovic
F: Nadal/Tsitsipas

BONUS
Medvedev:
R1: Giron
R2: Millman
R3: Korda
R4: Hurkacz/Shapo
QF: Nadal
SF: Tsitsipas
F: Djokovic

Nadal has a tough 1st couple of Rounds where Novak has it much easier. Though R3 onwards I think both Rafa and Novak have an about even draw. Even in R4 I consider ADM/PCB as much of a threat as Tiafoe/Khachanov. Also Rune/Kyrgios are very difficult possible QF opponents.

Rest it depends on their own respective form and how the draw opens up. The main issue for Rafa isn't the draw but rather his own form. Looking forward to some spectacular matches and hoping for an early upset for Novak.

 

[NeutralFan]

As for Djokovic, I’m going to bet it’s boom or bust.

Rafa won't make it past the QF, I said it yesterday for a reason. Novak or no Novak, doesn't matter, the field is too strong for Rafa this time.

Sunny , my son!
With Novak's draw Rafa would sleep walk in final.

 

[Razer]

I am allergic to trolls who do son, sunny everywhere in half their comments, so I will put you on ignore now, won't be seeing your comments. Bye.

 

[MichaelNadal]

Wait till Nadal' draw evaporates.

It always does the spanish mafia must pay em off

 

[Nadal_King]

Well Aus open organisers on a mission to send the top seed in men home by first Monday or Tuesday 2 years in succession, last year Djokovic deported and this year trying to get Nadal Drapered

 

[weakera]

It would not surprise me at this point if Craig Tiley and Goran Inasevic got together to make the draw over a candlelit dinner every year.

 

[DIMI_D]

If nadal looses first round he should retire at FO as he will basically irrelevant

 

[NeutralFan]

I am allergic to trolls who do son, sunny everywhere in half their comments, so I will put you on ignore now, won't be seeing your comments. Bye.

Calm down son, sunny was a honorable poster here. Anyway, let's see how long your allergies last here.

 

[Terenigma]

Lol at people thinking Ruud has the easiest draw, It's Djokovic's by a country mile. Berrettini/Zvervev/Fritz are better here than Rublev/Kyrgios and Rune and that alone makes Ruud's draw harder. Nadal/Medvedev have the hardest draw for sure and Tsitsipas has an interesting draw, It's not exactly hard so it's probably his best chance of a final run.

 

[RF-18]

 

[weakera]

Thank you for being honest about this.

 

[Deleted member 791948]

Was he also experimenting at the WTF where he sucked and played like crap? How about in Paris before that? Or the USO or Cinci? Rafa is clearly not playing anywhere near the level he will need to make it out of a draw like this. Just not going to happen, imo.

His stomach was an issue, so he was serving slower at the US Open, I saw the match and I saw his 1st Serve was only about 110mph.
And at the ATP Finals he just took a while (2 matches) to find his timing and adapt to indoors as he often does, until he looked flawless and beat Ruud in straight sets.

 

[Deleted member 791948]

If nadal looses first round he should retire at FO as he will basically irrelevant

Or he should win 3 more French Opens, as he most likely will.
Even after missing 6 weeks with a broken rib, he still beat Djokovic at Roland Garros last year after early exits at Madrid and Rome.
Folks never learn, Nadal always returns to the top, and that's why he will always have The Slam Record - and is therefore the most relevant person in the history of tennis.

 

[jl809]

They massacred Nadal lol. He might even go out in R1 if he doesn’t get his **** together asap. As usual, no Djokodal in the same half at a HC or grass slam, what a surprise

Djokovic’s draw is lovely for the 1st week but I’m not sure about this injury, so in some ways niceness is irrelevant. Before last year I’d have said that Kyrgios QF could be nasty but it looks like he’s done some weird mental voodoo on Nick to turn him into a sycophant, so that should be fine

Ruud can **** off. Literally frauding his way along in the top 10 with these ridiculous slam draws, that’s 3 of the last 4 now. Really hope he gets a nasty one at the FO

Meddy’s is probably the worst slam draw at the AO I’ve seen in years

 

[TheAssassin]

Nothing new to see Rafa get a terrible draw. It's the norm and has been for a long time.

Yeah, such constant rotten luck lol...

 

[jl809]

I bet Djokovic could get through the 1st week even with that injury, he is good enough to. In a match between PCB or AdM and “Djokovic with hamstring problem”, I would still bet my house on “Djokovic with hamstring problem” winning in 4

 

[Cheese&IPA]

Djokovic could win it on one leg with that draw, crazy that Nadal draw when he was top seed.

 

[T007]

Unless I've made some transcription errors, these are the draws. Analysis to follow.

Nadal:
R1: Draper
R2: Nakashima/McDonald
R3: Nishioka
R4: Tiafoe/Khachanov
QF: Medvedev
SF: Tsitsipas
F: Djokovic

Djokovic:
R1: RCB
R2: Dellien
R3: Dimitrov
R4: PCB/ADM
QF: Rublev/Kyrgios/Rune
SF: Ruud
F: Nadal/Tsitsipas

Tsitsipas:
R1: Halys
R2: Hijikata
R3: Botic VDZ
R4: Sinner/Musetti
QF: FAA
SF: Nadal
F: Djokovic

Ruud:
R1: Machac
R2: Brooksby
R3: ADF
R4: Berrettini/RBA
QF: Fritz/Zverev
SF: Djokovic
F: Nadal/Tsitsipas

BONUS
Medvedev:
R1: Giron
R2: Millman
R3: Korda
R4: Hurkacz/Shapo
QF: Nadal
SF: Tsitsipas
F: Djokovic

Djokovic the lucky ******* here lol what an easy draw...

 

[T007]

Worst draw in the draw:
Could be Huesler - Millman, Medvedev, Korda, Hurkacz/Shapovalov, Nadal, Tsitsipas, Djokovic.
or Murray - Berrettini, Fognini, RBA, Ruud, Zverev/Fritz, Djokovic, Nadal/Medvedev
or Gasquet - Humbert, Kyrgios, Rune, Rublev, Djokovic, Ruud/Zverev, Nadal/Medvedev

I'm torn, but partial to Murray because he's a slam winner. Probably Gasquet though.

How djokovics draw is harder...Which in form top ranked player he is facing in his quarter

 

[T007]

God, can this Ruud be removed in top 4 seeds as soon as possible, it nakes draws really unbalanced. Those were the days when big 4 made up for Top 4 or even with Stan there now wherever Ruud lands it makes it really unbalanced

He is a choker...Nadal would have loved him in his half

 

[T007]

Djokovic could win it on one leg with that draw, crazy that Nadal draw when he was top seed.

Djokovic as top seed always got East draws till finals except that USO 2021. Nadal too had his fair share of luck with the draw when it fell apart

 

[InsideOut900]

Nothing new to see Rafa get a terrible draw. It's the norm and has been for a long time.

It's only terrible until it collapses 2 days into the touranemnt, lol

 

[King_ Zeglan12]

Really wanted Djokovic and Nadal to be on the same half

 

[Hitman]

Really wanted Djokovic and Nadal to be on the same half

I wanted them in the same quarter before Alcaraz injury

 

[aldeayeah]

I literally laughed out loud when I saw Nadal's draw! That's a pretty brutal path to another title...

I laughed too when I saw Ruud as the would-be final opponent, but who knows lol

 

[Jonesy]

Calm down folks, it will be Djokovic vs Nadal in the final.

 

[Deleted member 758560]

Calm down folks, it will be Djokovic vs Nadal in the final.

of course not lol

 

[DIMI_D]

Or he should win 3 more French Opens, as he most likely will.
Even after missing 6 weeks with a broken rib, he still beat Djokovic at Roland Garros last year after early exits at Madrid and Rome.
Folks never learn, Nadal always returns to the top, and that's why he will always have The Slam Record - and is therefore the most relevant person in the history of tennis.

I’m a die hard fan but I will not rule him out until after the French open but that’s a must win for him if he continues like last half of the year and he drops to like 50th in the world he has some big problems most of his points are the first 2 slams. Let’s see I don’t expect him to go far here but a dignified QF showing will appease me

 

[Jonesy]

of course not lol

Even with Djokovic injured and Nadal playing worse than Kyrgios on clay courts i believe in them because they are mentally the strongest of all time.

 

[junior74]

There are top 10 players in my favourite player's draw. It's not fair

Draws always fall apart, nevertheless...

 

[WarriorRafa]

Nadal lost to Hurkacz in practice in straights, UEs galore. I can see him going out R1 easy

 

[Carax]

"Sorry we missed you last year, Novak. Let us give you the easiest draw. Oh...and let us take out Nadal in the 1st round, lol."

 

[Curtennis]

Lol at people thinking Ruud has the easiest draw, It's Djokovic's by a country mile. Berrettini/Zvervev/Fritz are better here than Rublev/Kyrgios and Rune and that alone makes Ruud's draw harder. Nadal/Medvedev have the hardest draw for sure and Tsitsipas has an interesting draw, It's not exactly hard so it's probably his best chance of a final run.

Ruuds first three should be a cakewalk.

Berretini is a great matchup for Ruud. Ruud will be able to target his backhand and absolutely destroy him with ease if he learned anything from United. Ruud hits a very heavy ball with great consistency. I think someone like ADM would give Ruud more trouble.
then in the quarters Ruud gets Zverev which we really don’t know how he’s going to be back in a BO5 situation or Fritz who hasn’t accomplished much. The way he choked against Nadal at Wimbledon of all places was pretty damn pathetic. So I think we gotta say Zverev is the harder match up, but that’s not saying much.

Meanwhile Djokovic has got either Rune or Kyrgios in the QF. I’ll admit I’m listening to the hype, but Rune is very dangerous right now. I’d much rather have the known element of Zverev than someone who could potentially be the next big star.

 

[Deleted member 791948]

I’m a die hard fan but I will not rule him out until after the French open but that’s a must win for him if he continues like last half of the year and he drops to like 50th in the world he has some big problems most of his points are the first 2 slams. Let’s see I don’t expect him to go far here but a dignified QF showing will appease me

A poor 2nd half is the trademark of his career, 2009 (made USO semis but lost EVERY set at the WTF), 2012 (disappeared), 2014 (disappeared), 2016 (mostly disappeared).
Surely the pattern is obvious by now, he's better in the 1st half of the year (despite winning 4 US Opens).
This is why some of the Nadal fans are the absolute worst people on the internet, and why I HATE the Nadal News 2.0 thread, they give-up on Nadal so easily.... and they do it over and over and over again no matter how much he proves them wrong.

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

Happy with novaks draw. I actually think krygios in his quarter is a good thing. As he may not even make it as he tends to get embroiled in long matches, he gets worn down by latter stages and he’s inconsistent and hasn’t played much.

As for Rune well again he’s very young and could lose early. That quarter final stage seems tougher but still krygios, rune or someone else is better than what it could have been.

As for the other rounds I’m happy with them and can’t complain.

Now I just hope he fully heals from his hamstring injury.

 

[DIMI_D]

A poor 2nd half is the trademark of his career, 2009 (made USO semis but lost EVERY set at the WTF), 2012 (disappeared), 2014 (disappeared), 2016 (mostly disappeared).
Surely the pattern is obvious by now, he's better in the 1st half of the year (despite winning 4 US Opens).
This is why some of the Nadal fans are the absolute worst people on the internet, and why I HATE the Nadal News 2.0 thread, they give-up on Nadal so easily.... and they do it over and over and over again no matter how much he proves them wrong.

He was injured 2nd half of last year hopefully he comes back healthy soon he always seems to do the impossible but it’s getting harder as he ages

 

[Jonesy]

Kyrgios/Djokovic at QF will be great.

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

Kyrgios/Djokovic at QF will be great.

Not sure krygios make it. If he does though he’s usually worn down by that point and easy prey for top players.

 

[Jonesy]

Not sure krygios make it. If he does though he’s usually worn down by that point and easy prey for top players.

If he gets there the crowd will go wild in a match against Djoker.

 

[Thedesertfox]

They massacred Nadal lol. He might even go out in R1 if he doesn’t get his **** together asap. As usual, no Djokodal in the same half at a HC or grass slam, what a surprise

Djokovic’s draw is lovely for the 1st week but I’m not sure about this injury, so in some ways niceness is irrelevant. Before last year I’d have said that Kyrgios QF could be nasty but it looks like he’s done some weird mental voodoo on Nick to turn him into a sycophant, so that should be fine

Ruud can **** off. Literally frauding his way along in the top 10 with these ridiculous slam draws, that’s 3 of the last 4 now. Really hope he gets a nasty one at the FO

Meddy’s is probably the worst slam draw at the AO I’ve seen in years

Stop insulting Ruud *******.

 

[DSH]

It would not surprise me at this point if Craig Tiley and Goran Inasevic got together to make the draw over a candlelit dinner every year.

The draw it is a sham!

 

[DSH]

Tiley is a businessman (with few scruples, by the way) who looks for ways to generate more revenue in each edition of the tournament.