# AO 2023 Draw Top 4 Analysis

#### SonnyT

##### Hall of Fame
Nadal's usual cakewalk draw didn't materialize! So Nadal fans are mighty upset!

For years, Federer and Djokovic were on same half of draws, except at RG! Which many, including myself, found to be statistically impossible!

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#### threehandedbackhand

##### Legend
Djokovic is extremely unlucky with his quarter draw.
Both Rune (the only player seeded #9-#16 whom Djokovic is afraid of) and Kyrgios (the only player seeded #17-#32 whom Djokovic is afraid of) have been drawn there.

#### DogInSpace

##### Rookie
Nadal's usual cakewalk draw didn't materialize! So Nadal fans are mighty upset!

For years, Federer and Djokovic were on same half of draws, except at RG! Which that many, including myself, found to be statistically impossible!
I don't think you followed tennis in the previous years.

Or you're trying to manipulate facts.

Quite possibly all of the above

#### TMF

##### Talk Tennis Guru
Nothing new to see Rafa get a terrible draw. It's the norm and has been for a long time.
At this day and age, any draw is an easy draw

#### BrokenGears

##### Semi-Pro
I need to know how Djokovic is looking physically to make any declaratory statements over how he's going to rough shot the competition

#### threehandedbackhand

##### Legend
For years, Federer and Djokovic were on same half of draws, except at RG! Which that many, including myself, found to be statistically impossible!
Looks interesting.

Let's make some simple math calculations:

Djokovic and Federer both have played in 58 GS tournaments.
9 times they shared 1-2 spots which guaranteed different halves.
They have never shared 3-4 spots which also guarantees different halves.

That gives 49 tournament draws for analysis.
19 times they were drawn into different halves (39%)
30 times they were drawn into the same half (61%)

The same half:
AO 10/14 = 71%
RG 5/11 = 45%
WIM 8/14 = 57%

USO 7/10 = 70%
Both Australia and US percentages look very interesting.

The most intriguing part. The streaks.
Wim 08 - AO 10 (the same half 7 times in a row, probability = 0.8%)
Wim 10 - USO 11 (the same half 6 times in a row, probability = 1.6%)
Wim 08 - Wim 12 (the same half 15 times in 17 consecutive tournaments, probability = 0.1% [here's a bit advanced math, binomial probability])

To me it seems you are right overall.
Between 2008 and 2012 that's far away from the coin toss distribution.

(o = the same half, x = different halves)
Code:
``````49 2021W  x
48 2021R o
47 2020A o
46 2019U o
45 2019R  x
44 2019A  x
43 2018U o
42 2018W  x
41 2018A o
40 2017W o
39 2017A  x
38 2016W o
37 2016A o
36 2014W  x
35 2014R o
34 2014A  x
33 2013U  x
32 2013W  x
31 2012W o
30 2012R o
29 2012A  x
28 2011U o
27 2011W o
26 2011R o
25 2011A o
24 2010U o
23 2010W o
22 2010R  x
21 2010A o
20 2009U o
19 2009W o
18 2009R o
17 2009A o
16 2008U o
15 2008W o
14 2008R  x
13 2008A o
12 2007U  x
11 2007W  x
10 2007R  x
9 2007A o
8 2006U  x
7 2006W o
6 2006R  x
5 2006A o
4 2005U o
3 2005W  x
2 2005R  x
1 2005A o``````

#### SonnyT

##### Hall of Fame
Thanks, 3HBH! But my period of analysis focus extended between 2011 and 2015-16, I think! That period, they were usually ranked 1-3.

These distributions even drew attention of statistics professors, and they also concluded that it was statistically impossible!

One interesting thing was that it rightly was immaterial which side Fed was on at RG! The non-clay slams formed an alliance for benefit of Nadal, and to the detriment of Federer and Djokovic!

It was weird, that the tennis establishment should be pro-Nadal, and anti-Federer, wasn't it!

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#### Mivic

##### Hall of Fame
Djokovic is really going to regret pushing through in Adelaide if that hamstring isn't adequately recovered come the start of the event. This definitely looks like the cushiest draw he's had at the AO since he hit his prime and this is a 9 time winner we're talking about.

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#### GabeT

##### G.O.A.T.
Djokovic is really going to regret pushing himself to the extent that he did in Adelaide if that hamstring isn't adequately recovered come the start of the event. This looks like the cushiest draw he's had at the AO since he hit his prime and he's won the thing 9 times.
Any update on the hamstring in the latest training sessions? Haven’t seen anything about it

#### Mivic

##### Hall of Fame
Any update on the hamstring in the latest training sessions? Haven’t seen anything about it
He trained with pretty heavy strapping just above his knee/around the lower hamstring region today. No video footage though. Good news is he feels fit enough to practice at least. He was training with a fellow highly ranked pro in Dimitrov (as opposed to a light hit with a coach or a low ranked pro who isn't participating in the event and doesn't need to get any prep in) as well so he's obviously able to hit at a reasonable level of intensity. Ideally he wouldn't go ahead with the Kyrgios exhibition tomorrow but since paying fans are due to attend and proceeds are going to charity I think he'll push through unfortunately.

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#### SonnyT

##### Hall of Fame
Actually putting Federer and Djokovic in the same half wasn't anti-Federer at all, but definitely pro-Nadal. Because during that period ('11-15), Federer couldn't beat Nadal at all, so putting him in the same half as Djokovic gave him a chance of upsetting Djokovic as much as anyone!

So the tactic was pro-Nadal and anti-Djokovic!

#### Jack the Hack

##### Hall of Fame
He trained with pretty heavy strapping just above his knee/around the lower hamstring region today. No video footage though. Good news is he feels fit enough to practice at least. He was training with a fellow highly ranked pro in Dimitrov (as opposed to a light hit with a coach or a low ranked pro who isn't participating in the event and doesn't need to get any prep in) as well so he's obviously able to hit at a reasonable level of intensity. Ideally he wouldn't go ahead with the Kyrgios exhibition tomorrow but since paying fans are due to attend and proceeds are going to charity I think he'll push through unfortunately.

Novak will probably enter the court for all his AO matches in a wheelchair or on crutches, but run like the wind when the match starts. But then be carried off the court on a stretcher at the end of every win. Djokovic in 5 sets for the title.

#### Mivic

##### Hall of Fame
Novak will probably enter the court for all his AO matches in a wheelchair or on crutches, but run like the wind when the match starts. But then be carried off the court on a stretcher at the end of every win. Djokovic in 5 sets for the title.
Lol I hope so.

#### Holic

##### Rookie
Happy with novaks draw. I actually think krygios in his quarter is a good thing. As he may not even make it as he tends to get embroiled in long matches, he gets worn down by latter stages and he’s inconsistent and hasn’t played much.

As for Rune well again he’s very young and could lose early. That quarter final stage seems tougher but still krygios, rune or someone else is better than what it could have been.

As for the other rounds I’m happy with them and can’t complain.

Now I just hope he fully heals from his hamstring injury.
Yeah the "injury"

#### Rafa4LifeEver

##### Legend
Are hard courts the best surface for the British?
No, grass courts are

#### Snafu23

##### Semi-Pro
My take from the draw is that I can't wait for Rafa and Nole to retire so perhaps at some point not every threat will be comparing their entire career. Rafa would be appalled at his fanbase calling the draw rigged cause he has to face...Draper. Gonna be an amazing tournament with Djoko the very clear favourite but lots of surprises always happen, let's see. Very hyped!

#### TripleATeam

##### G.O.A.T.
Unless I've made some transcription errors, these are the draws. Analysis to follow.

R1: Draper
R2: Nakashima/McDonald
R3: Nishioka
R4: Tiafoe/Khachanov
QF: Medvedev
SF: Tsitsipas
F: Djokovic

Djokovic:
R1: RCB
R2: Dellien
R3: Dimitrov
QF: Rublev/Kyrgios/Rune
SF: Ruud

Tsitsipas:
R1: Halys
R2: Hijikata
R3: Botic VDZ
R4: Sinner/Musetti
QF: FAA
F: Djokovic

Ruud:
R1: Machac
R2: Brooksby
R4: Berrettini/RBA
QF: Fritz/Zverev
SF: Djokovic

BONUS
Medvedev:
R1: Giron
R2: Millman
R3: Korda
R4: Hurkacz/Shapo
SF: Tsitsipas
F: Djokovic
Post Round 2 Check-in:

R1: Draper
R2: McDonald (LOSS)

Nadal's draw gets easier as one of the top seeds in his quarter goes out. Only problem is it was him.

Tsitsipas:
R1: Halys
R2: Hijikata
R3: Griekspoor
R4: Sinner
QF: FAA
SF: Medvedev
F: Djokovic

No substantive change to his draw. Nadal replaced by similar-difficulty Medvedev in the projected draw. Griekspoor takes VDZ's place.

Medvedev:
R1: Giron
R2: Millman
R3: Korda
R4: Hurkacz/Shapo
QF: Khachanov/Tiafoe
SF: Tsitsipas
F: Djokovic

Only change was Nadal being replaced by Khachanov/Tiafoe. Brings down the difficulty of the draw by a point or two. Korda in better form than most R3 opponents, and the R4-QF are dangerous opponents on their day. Not to mention if Khachanov or Tiafoe suffer an upset next round, there's still the other as a backup.

Ruud:
R1: Machac
R2: Brooksby (LOSS)

Ruud's loss opens up an entire quarter of the draw. This was a quarter that had a lot of players that could play solid tennis and pose a threat, though I didn't consider any of them particularly likely to peak at a level required to win the slam. (The potential exceptions being a fully-fit Zverev or zoned-in Fritz, but even there a long shot especially given as they're both on the ropes at the moment, leaving RBA as the probable SFist from that quarter).

Djokovic (hasn't played R2 yet but Ruud just lost so I don't want to leave out just Novak):
R1: RCB
R2: Couacaud
R3: Dimitrov
QF: Rublev/Rune
SF: RBA?
F: Medvedev/Tsitsipas

Ruud was likely not going to be a particularly difficult opponent. If it truly is RBA that makes the SF, it might even be tougher for Djokovic (somehow RBA matched up well against him recently) but still unlikely to pose a huge threat. The withdrawal of Kyrgios also makes his QF a bit easier (in case Rublev stops Rune, then he's got a more consistent player with a lower peak which Djokovic would likely love to have). Draw marginally easier, maybe it goes down a point?

#### weakera

##### Talk Tennis Guru
Post Round 2 Check-in:

R1: Draper
R2: McDonald (LOSS)

Nadal's draw gets easier as one of the top seeds in his quarter goes out. Only problem is it was him.

Tsitsipas:
R1: Halys
R2: Hijikata
R3: Griekspoor
R4: Sinner
QF: FAA
SF: Medvedev
F: Djokovic

No substantive change to his draw. Nadal replaced by similar-difficulty Medvedev in the projected draw. Griekspoor takes VDZ's place.

Medvedev:
R1: Giron
R2: Millman
R3: Korda
R4: Hurkacz/Shapo
QF: Khachanov/Tiafoe
SF: Tsitsipas
F: Djokovic

Only change was Nadal being replaced by Khachanov/Tiafoe. Brings down the difficulty of the draw by a point or two. Korda in better form than most R3 opponents, and the R4-QF are dangerous opponents on their day. Not to mention if Khachanov or Tiafoe suffer an upset next round, there's still the other as a backup.

Ruud:
R1: Machac
R2: Brooksby (LOSS)

Ruud's loss opens up an entire quarter of the draw. This was a quarter that had a lot of players that could play solid tennis and pose a threat, though I didn't consider any of them particularly likely to peak at a level required to win the slam. (The potential exceptions being a fully-fit Zverev or zoned-in Fritz, but even there a long shot especially given as they're both on the ropes at the moment, leaving RBA as the probable SFist from that quarter).

Djokovic (hasn't played R2 yet but Ruud just lost so I don't want to leave out just Novak):
R1: RCB
R2: Couacaud
R3: Dimitrov
QF: Rublev/Rune
SF: RBA?
F: Medvedev/Tsitsipas

Ruud was likely not going to be a particularly difficult opponent. If it truly is RBA that makes the SF, it might even be tougher for Djokovic (somehow RBA matched up well against him recently) but still unlikely to pose a huge threat. The withdrawal of Kyrgios also makes his QF a bit easier (in case Rublev stops Rune, then he's got a more consistent player with a lower peak which Djokovic would likely love to have). Draw marginally easier, maybe it goes down a point?

Sections 7/8 have imploded, it's unreal. Murray and Ben Shelton have a realistic chance to reach SF.

#### weakera

##### Talk Tennis Guru
Post Round 2 Check-in:

R1: Draper
R2: McDonald (LOSS)

Nadal's draw gets easier as one of the top seeds in his quarter goes out. Only problem is it was him.

Tsitsipas:
R1: Halys
R2: Hijikata
R3: Griekspoor
R4: Sinner
QF: FAA
SF: Medvedev
F: Djokovic

No substantive change to his draw. Nadal replaced by similar-difficulty Medvedev in the projected draw. Griekspoor takes VDZ's place.

Medvedev:
R1: Giron
R2: Millman
R3: Korda
R4: Hurkacz/Shapo
QF: Khachanov/Tiafoe
SF: Tsitsipas
F: Djokovic

Only change was Nadal being replaced by Khachanov/Tiafoe. Brings down the difficulty of the draw by a point or two. Korda in better form than most R3 opponents, and the R4-QF are dangerous opponents on their day. Not to mention if Khachanov or Tiafoe suffer an upset next round, there's still the other as a backup.

Ruud:
R1: Machac
R2: Brooksby (LOSS)

Ruud's loss opens up an entire quarter of the draw. This was a quarter that had a lot of players that could play solid tennis and pose a threat, though I didn't consider any of them particularly likely to peak at a level required to win the slam. (The potential exceptions being a fully-fit Zverev or zoned-in Fritz, but even there a long shot especially given as they're both on the ropes at the moment, leaving RBA as the probable SFist from that quarter).

Djokovic (hasn't played R2 yet but Ruud just lost so I don't want to leave out just Novak):
R1: RCB
R2: Couacaud
R3: Dimitrov
QF: Rublev/Rune
SF: RBA?
F: Medvedev/Tsitsipas

Ruud was likely not going to be a particularly difficult opponent. If it truly is RBA that makes the SF, it might even be tougher for Djokovic (somehow RBA matched up well against him recently) but still unlikely to pose a huge threat. The withdrawal of Kyrgios also makes his QF a bit easier (in case Rublev stops Rune, then he's got a more consistent player with a lower peak which Djokovic would likely love to have). Draw marginally easier, maybe it goes down a point?

RBA is down a set and a break. All that's left is Murray, Paul, Brooskby and Shelton

#### TripleATeam

##### G.O.A.T.
RBA is down a set and a break. All that's left is Murray, Paul, Brooskby and Shelton
True, hence the question mark. Double break now. Still there's comeback potential, but if not then I suppose technically the favorite to reach the SF is... Tommy Paul.

#### weakera

##### Talk Tennis Guru
True, hence the question mark. Double break now. Still there's comeback potential, but if not then I suppose technically the favorite to reach the SF is... Tommy Paul.

No way, it's Murray. And I think Brooskby can KO Paul

#### jm1980

##### Talk Tennis Guru
Sections 7/8 have imploded, it's unreal. Murray and Ben Shelton have a realistic chance to reach SF.
Murray's draw falls apart yet again.

#### Holic

##### Rookie
Just realized how easy Djokovic's draw is. Damn! Righed?

#### TripleATeam

##### G.O.A.T.
True, hence the question mark. Double break now. Still there's comeback potential, but if not then I suppose technically the favorite to reach the SF is... Tommy Paul.
RBA did comeback, so prohibitive favorite for the SF at the moment.

#### TripleATeam

##### G.O.A.T.
Post Round 2 Check-in:

R1: Draper
R2: McDonald (LOSS)

Nadal's draw gets easier as one of the top seeds in his quarter goes out. Only problem is it was him.

Tsitsipas:
R1: Halys
R2: Hijikata
R3: Griekspoor
R4: Sinner
QF: FAA
SF: Medvedev
F: Djokovic

No substantive change to his draw. Nadal replaced by similar-difficulty Medvedev in the projected draw. Griekspoor takes VDZ's place.

Medvedev:
R1: Giron
R2: Millman
R3: Korda
R4: Hurkacz/Shapo
QF: Khachanov/Tiafoe
SF: Tsitsipas
F: Djokovic

Only change was Nadal being replaced by Khachanov/Tiafoe. Brings down the difficulty of the draw by a point or two. Korda in better form than most R3 opponents, and the R4-QF are dangerous opponents on their day. Not to mention if Khachanov or Tiafoe suffer an upset next round, there's still the other as a backup.

Ruud:
R1: Machac
R2: Brooksby (LOSS)

Ruud's loss opens up an entire quarter of the draw. This was a quarter that had a lot of players that could play solid tennis and pose a threat, though I didn't consider any of them particularly likely to peak at a level required to win the slam. (The potential exceptions being a fully-fit Zverev or zoned-in Fritz, but even there a long shot especially given as they're both on the ropes at the moment, leaving RBA as the probable SFist from that quarter).

Djokovic (hasn't played R2 yet but Ruud just lost so I don't want to leave out just Novak):
R1: RCB
R2: Couacaud
R3: Dimitrov
QF: Rublev/Rune
SF: RBA?
F: Medvedev/Tsitsipas

Ruud was likely not going to be a particularly difficult opponent. If it truly is RBA that makes the SF, it might even be tougher for Djokovic (somehow RBA matched up well against him recently) but still unlikely to pose a huge threat. The withdrawal of Kyrgios also makes his QF a bit easier (in case Rublev stops Rune, then he's got a more consistent player with a lower peak which Djokovic would likely love to have). Draw marginally easier, maybe it goes down a point?
After R3 Top Half:

Tsitsipas:
R1: Halys
R2: Hijikata
R3: Griekspoor
R4: Sinner
QF: FAA
SF: Hurkacz
F: Djokovic

No real change in the draw until the SF, but yet again the projected SFist drops a match. Hurkacz takes Medvedev's place.

Medvedev:
R1: Giron
R2: Millman
R3: Korda (LOSS)

And amazingly, even Medvedev isn't immune to the Great Seed Extinction. He leaves behind a spot in the QF ripe for the taking, but Hurkacz still needs to go through Korda after his Shapovalov epic.

Of the 5 players I created this thread around, only 2 are left standing. Of the live odds outright, it seems like Djokovic is the favorite followed by Tsitsipas, then Rune close behind. Korda, Sinner, and FAA round out everyone with >5% chance of winning.

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