AO 2023 Draw Top 4 Analysis

[TripleATeam]

Unless I've made some transcription errors, these are the draws. Analysis to follow.

Nadal:
R1: Draper
R2: Nakashima/McDonald
R3: Nishioka
R4: Tiafoe/Khachanov
QF: Medvedev
SF: Tsitsipas
F: Djokovic

Djokovic:
R1: RCB
R2: Dellien
R3: Dimitrov
R4: PCB/ADM
QF: Rublev/Kyrgios/Rune
SF: Ruud
F: Nadal/Tsitsipas

Tsitsipas:
R1: Halys
R2: Hijikata
R3: Botic VDZ
R4: Sinner/Musetti
QF: FAA
SF: Nadal
F: Djokovic

Ruud:
R1: Machac
R2: Brooksby
R3: ADF
R4: Berrettini/RBA
QF: Fritz/Zverev
SF: Djokovic
F: Nadal/Tsitsipas

BONUS
Medvedev:
R1: Giron
R2: Millman
R3: Korda
R4: Hurkacz/Shapo
QF: Nadal
SF: Tsitsipas
F: Djokovic

 

[Kralingen]

Rafa got totally boned. Draper is probably the singular toughest draw you could possibly get in the 1R. Then Tiafoe in 4R again and the toughest QF in Medvedev…

Djokovic’s is very easy on paper but if the hamstring is an issue, a potential Dimitrov-PCB-Rune 3R-QF stretch is actually pretty nasty. Always the threat of Kyrgios too. If he’s healthy he wipes it but if not that’s a tough stretch while trying to play into form.

Ruud’s is incredibly weak.

FAA and Tsitsipas will duke it out for the SF spot next to Rafa/Medvedev on the top half.

 

[Curtennis]

Out of these, Ruud appears to have the easiest.

 

[ADuck]

Medvedev vsing himself in the QF would be insane.

 

[Razer]

Tiafoe the terminator in R4 for Nadal ....?... OMG.

 

[TripleATeam]

Analysis:
Nadal - 8/10 - his early rounds are filled with tough opponents but none that scream giant-killer. Unless he's in very poor form, he should be safe and be able to play himself into some form. A R4 with people that have given him trouble before, then probably the toughest QF-F we see here.

Djokovic - 3/10 - First 3 rounds really shouldn't trouble him. 4th round either, but it starts ramping up for some good match play. QF could be tricky depending on who it is, but there's plenty of difficult opponents for there to be. Likely to be a battle, but then there's the easier Ruud (and even if he falls, it's Fritz). SF makes the 2nd week quite easy. Below average, but not by much.

Tsitsipas - 6/10 - Similar as Djokovic. Nobody should be trouble until R4, but there Tsitsipas faces Sinner/Musetti who could easily be dangerous. Then a really tough SF/F, only bolstered by the fact that if Nadal isn't in the SF it's probably Medvedev.

Ruud - 6/10 - Some tricky R1-R3, then a hard R4 (if the opponents are in decent form), then Fritz/Djokovic/Nadal. Tricky draw.

Medvedev - 9/10 - Almost the same as Nadal's, but arguably harder R4 and no doubt harder R3.

 

[TripleATeam]

Medvedev vsing himself in the QF would be insane.

Fixed!

 

[Humphrey20133]

Nothing new to see Rafa get a terrible draw. It's the norm and has been for a long time.

 

[ADuck]

Fixed!

Aww

 

[UnforcedTerror]

Djokovic will meet either Fritz, Zed or Berrettini in the SF not Ruud.

 

[NoleFam]

Medvedev's is 10/10 in my opinion. That's a draw from hell and he gets Korda in the 3rd round? Geez. He might not even make it to the QF. Djokovic's is definitely harder than a 3/10. Dimitrov/PCB/Kyrgios-Rune is not a walk in the park especially if he's not 100%. Then he still has 2 more matches if he gets through them.

 

[TripleATeam]

Worst draw in the draw:
Could be Huesler - Millman, Medvedev, Korda, Hurkacz/Shapovalov, Nadal, Tsitsipas, Djokovic.
or Murray - Berrettini, Fognini, RBA, Ruud, Zverev/Fritz, Djokovic, Nadal/Medvedev
or Gasquet - Humbert, Kyrgios, Rune, Rublev, Djokovic, Ruud/Zverev, Nadal/Medvedev

I'm torn, but partial to Murray because he's a slam winner. Probably Gasquet though.

 

[Nadal_Django]

Pretty even draw for a change.

 

[No_Kwan_Do]

That's a very tricky R1 draw for Nadal. In fact, Draper is probably the most dangerous unseeded player in the draw given the way he's playing.

Draper might be a little tired if he goes all the way in Adelaide though.

 

[pj80]

Nothing new to see Rafa get a terrible draw. It's the norm and has been for a long time.

How so? It's cruise control until QF...where he will meet the guy he's 5-1 against

 

[Razer]

Medvedev's is 10/10 in my opinion. That's a draw from hell and he gets Korda in the 3rd round? Geez. He might not even make it to the QF. Djokovic's is definitely harder than a 3/10. Dimitrov/PCB/Kyrgios-Rune is not a walk in the park especially if he's not 100%. Then he still has 2 more matches if he gets through them.

Djokovic will reach the second week even on 1 leg.

QF onwards things won't be good if he is unfit.

 

[NeutralFan]

Djokovic will reach the second week even even on 1 leg.

QF onwards things won't be good if he is unfit.

Slay, sunny!

 

[pj80]

Djokovic will reach the second week even on 1 leg.

QF onwards things won't be good if he is unfit.

R3 Karatsev R4 PCB QF Rune/Kyrgios, SF Zverev...tough draw for Djo....tougher than Nadal's

 

[NoleFam]

Djokovic will reach the second week even on 1 leg.

QF onwards things won't be good if he is unfit.

Yea it gets tougher potentially in the QF if all goes well for him.

 

[MichaelNadal]

Thank goodness for 2022

 

[Kralingen]

Worst draw in the draw:
Could be Huesler - Millman, Medvedev, Korda, Hurkacz/Shapovalov, Nadal, Tsitsipas, Djokovic.
or Murray - Berrettini, Fognini, RBA, Ruud, Zverev/Fritz, Djokovic, Nadal/Medvedev
or Gasquet - Humbert, Kyrgios, Rune, Rublev, Djokovic, Ruud/Zverev, Nadal/Medvedev

I'm torn, but partial to Murray because he's a slam winner. Probably Gasquet though.

Gasquet is 6-2 vs Kyrgios H2H Big bad Nick is basically his pigeonne at this point

 

[MeatTornado]

Medvedev won't make the quarters anyway.

 

[TripleATeam]

Gasquet is 6-2 vs Kyrgios H2H Big bad Nick is basically his pigeonne at this point

Surprisingly good! But going through a tough guy like Humbert before needing to face Kyrgios/Rune (both with top 10 levels in their arsenal), then Rublev (tough opponent, will grind you down), before AO GOAT Djokovic (1-14) , then Zverev/Ruud (with very high levels themselves) and a Nadal (0-18)/Medvedev final ... not looking good for Richard.

 

[The Blond Blur]

Draws don’t always hold, but man wth is this? On paper this is back to back stacked draws at the AO for RAFA, Ombellieble

 

[Nadal_King]

Lol, Rafa is top seed but gets the worst draw and when Djokovic was the top seed cakewalk draws galored. Bottom line Nadal always gets tough draws and Djokovic easy especially in Australia

 

[Razer]

Gasquet is 6-2 vs Kyrgios H2H Big bad Nick is basically his pigeonne at this point

Last they met in 2018

Today in in 2023 Kyrgios will straight set Gasquet.

 

[Kralingen]

As for Djokovic, I’m going to bet it’s boom or bust.

He either loses before the QF or wins the whole thing. No in between. Essentially it all comes down to the injury. Simply put if the hammy is an issue then he will struggle with the physicality of PCB/De Minaur or falter in the QF vs Rune/Kyrgios… maybe even retire with injury.

If he makes it through he’s got a pushover in the SF, be it Fritz Ruud or Zverev, and by that point you’d have to think any questions about the hamstring would be answered and he wins the final.

Could be wrong but to me it feels very all or nothing.

 

[GabeT]

Medvedev vsing himself in the QF would be insane.

What if they both choke at the same time?

 

[Jack the Hack]

I literally laughed out loud when I saw Nadal's draw! That's a pretty brutal path to another title...

On the other hand, draws rarely play out to seeding form, especially at the Australian Open.

In my opinion, there's lots of drama potential, especially if Djokovic is compromised with his leg injury.

I'm looking forward to a Sinner vs Musetti 3rd round, and an opportunity for Sinner to get revenge on Tsitsipas in the 4th round if he can make it through.

 

[L4S10s]

Gluten free cupcakes for everyone!!!

 

[jondice]

Gotta love Rafa's draw. It's just a joke at this point. But whatever.

 

[D.Nalby12]

Wait till Nadal' draw evaporates.

 

[Kralingen]

I literally laughed out loud when I saw Nadal's draw! That's a pretty brutal path to another title...

On the other hand, draws rarely play out to seeding form, especially at the Australian Open.

In my opinion, there's lots of drama potential, especially if Djokovic is compromised with his leg injury.

I'm looking forward to a Sinner vs Musetti 3rd round, and an opportunity for Sinner to get revenge on Tsitsipas in the 4th round if he can make it through.

As bad as it seems for Rafa though, Medvedev may not even be there in the QF. And if he is, Rafa has the huge mental edge and will have a lot of confidence in that match. It is tough but he beat Dani last year, and Medvedev was in much better form coming in…

if he pulls that off then he’ll be totally back confidence and form wise. After that, anything can happen in a SF/F. He isn’t eliminated yet.

 

[Nadal_King]

Wait till Nadal' draw evaporates.

Ok can Draper also evaporate someway??

 

[Humphrey20133]

As bad as it seems for Rafa though, Medvedev may not even be there in the QF. And if he is, Rafa has the huge mental edge and will have a lot of confidence in that match. It is tough but he beat Dani last year, and Medvedev was in much better form coming in…

if he pulls that off then he’ll be totally back confidence and form wise. After that, anything can happen in a SF/F. He isn’t eliminated yet.

I think Rafa had better forget about anyone past the first round. Draper is going to be a very tough out for a very out-of-form, low-on-confidence Rafa. I see an upset brewing with that one for sure.

 

[Nadal_King]

As bad as it seems for Rafa though, Medvedev may not even be there in the QF. And if he is, Rafa has the huge mental edge and will have a lot of confidence in that match. It is tough but he beat Dani last year, and Medvedev was in much better form coming in…

if he pulls that off then he’ll be totally back confidence and form wise. After that, anything can happen in a SF/F. He isn’t eliminated yet.

Honestly for Rafa, I am more scared for 1st week than 2nd considering his horrible form and 1st rd against Draper it’s a tough start, Tiafoe is tough in 4th Rd but lightning doesn’t strike twice and no guarantee Tiafoe even makes it there and even Medvedev is no certainty. I hope Rafa starts Monday so that incase he catches fire and reaches Sf then he has 2 days off before that since his Rd4 and Qf will be tough

 

[Razer]

Rafa won't make it past the QF, I said it yesterday for a reason. Novak or no Novak, doesn't matter, the field is too strong for Rafa this time.

 

[jm1980]

Nothing new to see Rafa get a terrible draw. It's the norm and has been for a long time.

Yeah like the draws he got at the USO and Wimbledon... Oh, wait no he got a WC ranked near the Top 200 and then his pigeon Gasquet

 

[Nadal_King]

God, can this Ruud be removed in top 4 seeds as soon as possible, it nakes draws really unbalanced. Those were the days when big 4 made up for Top 4 or even with Stan there now wherever Ruud lands it makes it really unbalanced

 

[Kralingen]

I think Rafa had better forget about anyone past the first round. Draper is going to be a very tough out for a very out-of-form, low-on-confidence Rafa. I see an upset brewing with that one for sure.

It’s a really tough one. Ridiculous for a first rounder

 

[Deleted member 791948]

Honestly for Rafa, I am more scared for 1st week than 2nd considering his horrible form and 1st rd against Draper it’s a tough start, Tiafoe is tough in 4th Rd but lightning doesn’t strike twice and no guarantee Tiafoe even makes it there and even Medvedev is no certainty. I hope Rafa starts Monday so that incase he catches fire and reaches Sf then he has 2 days off before that since his Rd4 and Qf will be tough

Nadal's "form" is a bit deceiving, because he was experimenting at the United Cup, slapping winners and unforced errors without working the point, and also he was serve-volleying and playing more drop shots than usual. He'll grind a lot more at the AO. As he said, he'll die for it.

 

[Nadal_King]

Nadal's forms a bit deceiving, because he was experimenting at the United Cup, slapping winners and unforced errors without working the point, and also he was serve-volleying and playing more drop shots than usual. He'll grinding a lot more at the AO.

I agree there was a phase in that demon match from 3-2 onwards in 1st set when his level was unreal, if that shows up and stays for about 50-60% of the match, there will be no stopping him

 

[Deleted member 791948]

I agree there was a phase in that demon match from 3-2 onwards in 1st set when his level was unreal, if that shows up and stays for about 50-60% of the match, there will be no stopping him

Plus he's serving a lot faster now than he did at the US Open, when Tiafoe took advantage (but still, Tiafoe only won 10 more points than slow-serve-Nadal).

 

[Nadal_King]

Plus he's serving a lot faster now than he did at the US Open, when Tiafoe took advantage (but still, Tiafoe only won 10 more points than slow-serve-Nadal).

Tiafoe is no issue, Draper is the tough one and it comes up first when Rafa is at his lowest with b2b losses. If he gets through that then it will start to look much better

 

[Nadal_King]

Last time Rafa faced a Lefty in 1st rd of Ao it was 2016 and we know what happened. Hope history doesn’t repeat

 

[Humphrey20133]

Nadal's "form" is a bit deceiving, because he was experimenting at the United Cup, slapping winners and unforced errors without working the point, and also he was serve-volleying and playing more drop shots than usual. He'll grind a lot more at the AO. As he said, he'll die for it.

Was he also experimenting at the WTF where he sucked and played like crap? How about in Paris before that? Or the USO or Cinci? Rafa is clearly not playing anywhere near the level he will need to make it out of a draw like this. Just not going to happen, imo.

 

[Nadal_King]

Lol, even if you compare Rd by Rd for Rafa and Djokovic’s draw then each Rd it seems Rafa is tougher

 

[jm1980]

Lol, even if you compare Rd by Rd for Rafa and Djokovic’s draw then each Rd it seems Rafa is tougher

Yes, it's tougher on paper. But you never know how the draw will actually pan out.

It wouldn't be the first time a theoretically "thoughest" draw falls apart for Rafa

 

[Nadal_King]

Yes, on paper. But you never know how the draw will actually pan out.

It wouldn't be the first time a theoretically "thoughest" draw falls apart for Rafa

But Draper he has to face who is top 40 player and it’s the 1st rd so that alone makes it tough since as early you face these greats in tournament the better for your chances

 

[jm1980]

But Draper he has to face who is top 40 player and it’s the 1st rd so that alone makes it tough since as early you face these greats in tournament the better for your chances

That's true, Draper is a fairly tough 1st round opponent. I suppose it could've been worse, like Thiem