AO 2024 QF - (2.) Carlos Alcaraz vs. (6.) Alexander Zverev

Who will win this match?

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Enceladus

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ATP H2H: 4-3 for Sascha
HC H2H: 3-1 for Sascha
GS H2H: 1-1 tie

With a win over Zverev, Carlitos would reach SF at all four Grand Slams, among active tennis players, Djokovic, Nadal, Murray and Čilić have achieved this. Sascha will be looking to equaled his best result at AO from 2020. Who will advance?
 
From what I’ve seen, Zverev has played some of the most passive, directionless, low-intensity baseline tennis I’ve ever seen from him here. He’s been juuust solid enough to move through, mostly thanks to the serve (which has been good but not Zedbot level). If he doesn’t step up in a big way this’ll probably look a lot like their US Open match.
 
Can’t see Zed win even a set. He just blows too hot and cold and the faster more clinical Raz will win 3 sets, one tight will be a tight TB if Zed serves well.
 
Zedrot has played two gruelling five setters, Carlos has breezed through except against Sonego. Alcaraz should easily win in straights and send the dirtbag packing back to Monaco.
 
If this was Zed from say end of 2021 or the way he played at RG in 2022 against Rafa in SF then Carlos would really have a titanic battle on his hands.

However, right now he is looking a couple of levels below where he used to be so should be comfortable win for the tiny one.
 
Pheasant said:
Carlitos' form has really ramped up the last few matches. He is clicking on all 12 cylinders. If Zverev gets red-hot on serves, then he could push this to 4 sets. But I'm talking Alcaraz in straight sets; 6-4. 7-6, 6-2.
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I agree Carlos is the favorite but Sasha matches up well with him because he can cover the court and hang with him in the rallies. This can cause Carlos to try for too much and lose points, then Carlos gets confused about how he is going to win. We shall see. . . .
 
Zverev will win. He is still the superior hard court player. One loss at the US Open doesn’t change the dynamic.

Zverev is good at handling ball bashers like Alcaraz. Plus, he has the superior serve and return of serve. He will have little difficulty holding serve while Alcaraz will have difficulty holding serve. Zverev also has superior defense and court coverage which will frustrate Alcaraz and cause him to spray a lot of unforced errors.
 
Arak said:
Obviously Alcaraz is the clear favourite but Zverev can in theory create an upset. Doubtful based on his form in the tournament but you never know.
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Zverev struggled with cam Norrie! lol Alcaraz is in slam winning form in my view. I will be shocked if Zverev even wins a set. Think alcaraz will murder him.
 
The H2H is misleading. Two of Zverev’s victories came when Carlos was an upcoming player, not a top player. The H2H that counts is 3-2 Carlos, and in Zverev’s most recent victory at the ATP finals Carlos was in poor form.

Sascha has played 5 more sets than Carlos so far, so doesn’t have fresh legs. If Carlos brings the level he showed today, I don’t see Zverev making much of an impact; his forehand has been poor the whole tournament.
 
tudwell said:
From what I’ve seen, Zverev has played some of the most passive, directionless, low-intensity baseline tennis I’ve ever seen from him here. He’s been juuust solid enough to move through, mostly thanks to the serve (which has been good but not Zedbot level). If he doesn’t step up in a big way this’ll probably look a lot like their US Open match.
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That's how he was playing against Baez, Nakashima and Zapata-Mirallès at RG2022 and he was able to produce his best tennis in QF against Alcaraz. He knows he has 0 chance if he's too passive but I think he's shown his ability to adapt his game against the best players. There is a reason why he has positive H2H against Sinner, Alcaraz, Rublev and some other top players... The issue might be his fitness. 2 4h matches in super-tie-breaks, this is going to be problematic as it was in New York a few months ago. Alcaraz in 4 for me. Zverev takes the first set, very close 2nd set and easier in sets 3 and 4.
 
Lauren_Girl' said:
That's how he was playing against Baez, Nakashima and Zapata-Mirallès at RG2022 and he was able to produce his best tennis in QF against Alcaraz. He knows he has 0 chance if he's too passive but I think he's shown his ability to adapt his game against the best players. There is a reason why he has positive H2H against Sinner, Alcaraz, Rublev and some other top players... The issue might be his fitness. 2 4h matches in super-tie-breaks, this is going to be problematic as it was in New York a few months ago.
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He doesn’t have a positive H2H against Alcaraz in real terms. 2 of those wins were when he was top 10 and Alcaraz was ranked outside the top 100 and later at 42, on the rise.
 
I think Carlos in 3. Zverev hasn’t been as good as he needs to be and he’s not Djokovic, where he could turn his form around in a heartbeat.
 
djokovic the conqueror said:
Zverev will win. He is still the superior hard court player. One loss at the US Open doesn’t change the dynamic.

Zverev is good at handling ball bashers like Alcaraz. Plus, he has the superior serve and return of serve. He will have little difficulty holding serve while Alcaraz will have difficulty holding serve. Zverev also has superior defense and court coverage which will frustrate Alcaraz and cause him to spray a lot of unforced errors.
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Yeah he Will spray a lot of volleys and drop shots too, ball basher... Lol, you must watch only the results
 
Walrus Gumball said:
I agree Carlos is the favorite but Sasha matches up well with him because he can cover the court and hang with him in the rallies. This can cause Carlos to try for too much and lose points, then Carlos gets confused about how he is going to win. We shall see. . . .
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agree. i also think carlos's rally ball sits up at the perfect height for Zverev to tee off on, that topspin plays right into his strike zone.

expecting alcaraz to win but i believe this is a factor, some guys just tee you up to hit your own best strokes.
 
Looks like Alcaraz is a heavy favorite in this match, which means pressure for him. If Zverev serves well, this will be a tight match. The past few months has shown that a top player with a good plan can beat Alcaraz on hard court. I won't be surprised if Zverev wins and won't consider it an upset.
 
mental midget said:
agree. i also think carlos's rally ball sits up at the perfect height for Zverev to tee off on, that topspin plays right into his strike zone.

expecting alcaraz to win but i believe this is a factor, some guys just tee you up to hit your own best strokes.
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I was just about to write this - Those slightly loopy ground strokes from Alcaraz is right in Zverevs strike zone, lazer guide missile comes back especially from the backhand side.
Tennis is about matchups and I think Zverev will also be up for this and raise his level. Probably still have Alcaraz as the favorite but I wouldnt put money on it. Zverev doesnt mind playing Alcaraz for some reason
 
Wesling said:
I was just about to write this - Those slightly loopy ground strokes from Alcaraz is right in Zverevs strike zone, lazer guide missile comes back especially from the backhand side.
Tennis is about matchups and I think Zverev will also be up for this and raise his level. Probably still have Alcaraz as the favorite but I wouldnt put money on it. Zverev doesnt mind playing Alcaraz for some reason
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yep. we'll see if alcaraz does some slicing, maybe draw zverev in a bit...he definitely has the tools to mix things up, just don't think he wants to get in a bunch of metronomic baseline rallies. in the end he just has more game but could be interesting.
 
Rattie said:
He doesn’t have a positive H2H against Alcaraz in real terms. 2 of those wins were when he was top 10 and Alcaraz was ranked outside the top 100 and later at 42, on the rise.
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I understand and I don't disagree. But if we reason like this, we should never care about H2H then. It's always misleading on some level, for everyone. Best example is Djokodal. At some point the H2H was 15-4 for Nadal, when Nadal was already number #1 or #2 and Djokovic was on the rise and miles away from his post-2010 level. He took a strong lead between 2006 and 2009... and since Cincinnati 2009 it's 26-14 for Djokovic. Yet the Djokodal H2H is still always brought up when fans compare them.... Is this 30-29 H2H really that significant today?

If we dig into Alcaraz/Zverev's H2H, I agree the first 2 matches should be put into perspective. But we could also take Alcaraz's 3 wins with a grain of salt, then. Madrid is historically Alcaraz's favorite tournament. In 2022 Zverev finished his SF against Tsitsipas in the middle of the night and basically tanked the final. In 2023 Zverev was coming back from injury and very far from his best. And USO 2023 we could all see Zverev was physically spent and had a back injury. So, all of Alcaraz wins were against a recovering or exhausted or/and injured opponent.... ATP Finals 2023 Alcaraz was also far from his best and potentially injured. At the end of of the day we should only count RG2022 then. That's the only match where both players were fresh and playing well.
 
NeutralFan said:
Z deserves better and the hatred he gets is unwarranted. I hope my son pulls it off in straight sets.
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Public hate Zverev for no reason at all. He is nowhere remotely as unlikeable as he is here. These people are so invested in hating a player who doesn't even know of their existence....
 
nolefam_2024 said:
He is hated for many things

Allegations
Mugging up matches
Horrendous forehands
Gold chains and bragging to be the best.
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You or people here don't need to worry about his allegations, if he has not done anything bad to you then dont bother, leave the judgement to the proper authorities.

Mugging and forehands? Ok... that could be a reason but for Hate ? Nope... the whole tour is filled of mugs ... an entire generation of failures have won just 2 slams (under lucky circumstances), baby alcaraz has same numbers of slams as them..... so no, not a reason good enough.

Gold chains is a style statement... .. he has gold so he is wearing it....no point being jealous....
 
Razer said:
You or people here don't need to worry about his allegations, if he has not done anything bad to you then dont bother, leave the judgement to the proper authorities.

Mugging and forehands? Ok... that could be a reason but for Hate ? Nope... the whole tour is filled of mugs ... an entire generation of failures have won just 2 slams (under lucky circumstances), baby alcaraz has same numbers of slams as them..... so no, not a reason good enough.

Gold chains is a style statement... .. he has gold so he is wearing it....no point being jealous....
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If only people were that simple. I don't want to see this mug in every big match ruining the sport with passive pushing.

You are okay with it. But I am not.
 
Lauren_Girl' said:
I understand and I don't disagree. But if we reason like this, we should never care about H2H then. It's always misleading on some level, for everyone. Best example is Djokodal. At some point the H2H was 15-4 for Nadal, when Nadal was already number #1 or #2 and Djokovic was on the rise and miles away from his post-2010 level. He took a strong lead between 2006 and 2009... and since Cincinnati 2009 it's 26-14 for Djokovic. Yet the Djokodal H2H is still always brought up when fans compare them.... Is this 30-29 H2H really that significant today?

If we dig into Alcaraz/Zverev's H2H, I agree the first 2 matches should be put into perspective. But we could also take Alcaraz's 3 wins with a grain of salt, then. Madrid is historically Alcaraz's favorite tournament. In 2022 Zverev finished his SF against Tsitsipas in the middle of the night and basically tanked the final. In 2023 Zverev was coming back from injury and very far from his best. And USO 2023 we could all see Zverev was physically spent and had a back injury. So, all of Alcaraz wins were against a recovering or exhausted or/and injured opponent.... ATP Finals 2023 Alcaraz was also far from his best and potentially injured. At the end of of the day we should only count RG2022 then. That's the only match where both players were fresh and playing well.
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Good points in fairness. Bottom line; Alcaraz is the more talented player and should win if we simply go on the level shown at this tournament.
 
Some people just dont understand that the gods of tennis have sent Alcaraz to balance the tennis universe, a lot of flashy players have failed again and again against the percentage tennis, now they sent someone that will become unplayable, if you play percentages he will overwhelm you with imposible touch shots and old school serve and volley backed Up with todays level of athleticism, this is not a coincidence folks, Federer couldnt fight against his older body to make it right for tennis, but Alcaraz was sent to remind us how the game should be played, all those amazing things you would like to do when youre a child and pick up a racquet, you wouldnt wanna wait for any mistake, you wouldnt wanna just play Deep so you win an inch of the court, you just dream of hitting that ball in imposible ways and crazy angles, hitting that ball better than anybody, crowd going "wooooooooow", thats the tennis to be loved, we been denied of that for long enough, but the essence of the game has come back, It always comes back.
 
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Zverev has shown he has the game for big matches and can beat alcaraz. He's even played djokodal close at times but couldn't close the win. I wouldn't look at his uso loss to raz as he was on the comeback from injury.
 
I think it‘s pretty difficult to predict, because Alcaraz didn‘t face too big an opponent yet. Let‘s see - hope he makes it!
 
nolefam_2024 said:
If only people were that simple. I don't want to see this mug in every big match ruining the sport with passive pushing.

You are okay with it. But I am not.
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You can't term zverecs fast groundies with heavy top spin and big serves as pushing. He was the only newgen player before sinraz who could push Novak back and cause him problems from the baseline.
 
sportsfan1 said:
You can't term zverecs fast groundies with heavy top spin and big serves as pushing. He was the only newgen player before sinraz who could push Novak back and cause him problems from the baseline.
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His forehand is worst kind of pushing I have seen. He doesn't have Nadal style but still plays the same loopy forehand. His serve and backhand saved him till now.
 
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