AO 2024 QF - (3.) Jannik Sinner vs (5.) Andrey Rublev

Who will win this match?


  • Total voters
    55
  • Poll closed .

Enceladus

Legend
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ATP H2H: 4-2 for Sinner
HC H2H: 2-1 for Sinner
GS H2H: 1-0 for Rublev

One of them will be playing at the AO in SF for the first time, and for Rublev, victory would also bring him the first promotion into the Grand Slam SF. It will be a duel between two players with a great punch, who will be more successful?
 
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Weirdly enough I think rublev might surprise us all against sinner.

I don’t think he wins necessarily but I don’t think Sinner in best of 5 will scare him as much as Djokovic or even Meddy who owns him.

I don’t think Sinner and rublev have played a best of 5 match which makes it interesting.

I think Sinner should win but wouldn’t surprise me if this went 4 or 5 sets. Looking forward to it.

Hopefully rublev recovers physically. I think Rublev can make this more competitive than ADM could.
 

nolefam_2024

G.O.A.T.
Sinner in 4.

Rublev never was going to be a slam champion. He isn't even a contender. He is very good like David ferrer.
 

Mxnh

Rookie
No but in all seriousness name something Rublev does better than Sinner:
Forehand Sinner
Backhand Sinner
Slice Sinner
Touch Sinner
Volley Sinner
Serve Sinner
Return Sinner
Untraumatized by 0-9 GS QF matches Sinner

Rublev's game plan is hit hard and if that doesnt work hit harder
unfortunately Sinner can hit both harder and more accurately than rublev

Sinner in 3 unless it's like 35+ degrees out
 

uscwang

Hall of Fame
No but in all seriousness name something Rublev does better than Sinner:
Forehand Sinner
Backhand Sinner
Slice Sinner
Touch Sinner
Volley Sinner
Serve Sinner
Return Sinner
Untraumatized by 0-9 GS QF matches Sinner

Rublev's game plan is hit hard and if that doesnt work hit harder
unfortunately Sinner can hit both harder and more accurately than rublev

Sinner in 3 unless it's like 35+ degrees out
Stamina
 

Kralingen

Talk Tennis Guru
No but in all seriousness name something Rublev does better than Sinner:
Forehand Sinner
Backhand Sinner
Slice Sinner
Touch Sinner
Volley Sinner
Serve Sinner
Return Sinner
Untraumatized by 0-9 GS QF matches Sinner

Rublev's game plan is hit hard and if that doesnt work hit harder
unfortunately Sinner can hit both harder and more accurately than rublev

Sinner in 3 unless it's like 35+ degrees out
Rublev easily has a better serve than Sinner.

This is a joke, right? In what world does Sinner have a better serve…

I also think he has a better standing forehand than Jannik. But on the move Sinner’s FH is better.
 

dking68

Legend
Rublev easily has a better serve than Sinner.

This is a joke, right? In what world does Sinner have a better serve…

I also think he has a better standing forehand than Jannik. But on the move Sinner’s FH is better.
Sinner has the better serve. Look on the leaderboard stats for serve in the last 12 months

Sinner ranked #8
Rublev ranked #15

Sinner won 87.7% of his service games in the last 12 months - Sinner is ranked 5th in this department

Rublev won 84.8% of his service games in the last 12 months - Rublev is ranked 14th in this department
 

dking68

Legend
@Kralingen as much as we complain about Sinners serve he’s been broken the least out of anyone in this tournament. But he needs to get that first serve percentage up to defeat Novak. He’s only been broken twice in four rounds, that’s pretty good.
 

Ray Mercer

Hall of Fame
Sinner has the better serve. Look on the leaderboard stats for serve in the last 12 months

Sinner ranked #8
Rublev ranked #15

Sinner won 87.7% of his service games in the last 12 months - Sinner is ranked 5th in this department

Rublev won 84.8% of his service games in the last 12 months - Rublev is ranked 14th in this department
Service games won takes ground game into consideration. I think the better measure would be aces and unreturnables. I'm not sure what the answer is or who the stats favour.
 

dking68

Legend
Service games won takes ground game into consideration. I think the better measure would be aces and unreturnables. I'm not sure what the answer is or who the stats favour.
But in terms of effectiveness and who’s likely to hold serve more, it’s definitely Sinner. Sinner has only been broken twice in this tournament
 

dking68

Legend
@Kralingen the big difference between Rublev and Sinners serve - the second serve

Sinner has won 56.6% of second serve points won - ranked second in this category behind Novak

Rublev has won 52.3% of second serve points - ranked 29th

I’m going with Sinner in three based off of this
 

Kralingen

Talk Tennis Guru
Sinner has the better serve. Look on the leaderboard stats for serve in the last 12 months

Sinner ranked #8
Rublev ranked #15

Sinner won 87.7% of his service games in the last 12 months - Sinner is ranked 5th in this department

Rublev won 84.8% of his service games in the last 12 months - Rublev is ranked 14th in this department
Service games won means nothing.

Carlos is ahead of Rublev and Shelton in service games won, does that mean Tiny Carlos is a servebot too?
 

Ray Mercer

Hall of Fame
But in terms of effectiveness and who’s likely to hold serve more, it’s definitely Sinner. Sinner has only been broken twice in this tournament
That's mostly due to the fact that his backhand is top 3 in the world and his forehand is really good as well. There’s no doubt he's got a great baseline game from both sides.
 
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dking68

Legend
Service games won means nothing.

Carlos is ahead of Rublev and Shelton in service games won, does that mean Tiny Carlos is a servebot too?
Service games won refers to the ability of the player to hold serve. In other words, who is likely to hold better and less likely to be broken. Sinners serve is less likely to be broken than Rublevs
 

Kralingen

Talk Tennis Guru
Service games won refers to the ability of the player to hold serve. In other words, who is likely to hold better and less likely to be broken. Sinners serve is less likely to be broken than Rublevs
Because of his ground game and movement more than anything. I think Sinner’s serve is good indoors but on a HC there’s no doubt Rublev has a better serve, as in just the serve alone.

The issue for Andrey is his Murray esque second serve.
 

dking68

Legend
Because of his ground game and movement more than anything. I think Sinner’s serve is good indoors but on a HC there’s no doubt Rublev has a better serve, as in just the serve alone.

The issue for Andrey is his Murray esque second serve.
But service games won takes into consideration both first and second serves and Sinner leads Rublev in that category. He’s a better server. Stefanos Tsitsipas and Hubert Hurkacz lead that category at 1st and 2nd
 

NYTennisfan

Professional
Rublev's plan A, B and C is to hit the ball hard and hope for the best. The problem with this matchup is that Sinner does that too but at a higher level and he has a different Plan B and C if A isn't working. Worst possible matchup for Rublev, this has all the looks of something like 7-5, 6-4, 6-2.

Just fast forward to Sinnovic already. The other side with Alcaraz, Medvedev, Hurkacz and Zverev is more interesting.
 

dking68

Legend
@Kralingen HH has a service hold (service games won) of 88.1%. Why do you think Novak finds it so hard to break his serve? Look at their Wimbledon fourth round match, if HH was clutcher, he could’ve defeated Novak in straights. Three tiebreakers
 

Ray Mercer

Hall of Fame
@Kralingen HH has a service hold (service games won) of 88.1%. Why do you think Novak finds it so hard to break his serve? Look at their Wimbledon fourth round match, if HH was clutcher, he could’ve defeated Novak in straights. Three tiebreakers
I can tell you its definitely not HH's ground game. HH has a bomb of a serve. That's why his hold percentage is so high. Your initial breakdown of the players was analyzing stroke by stroke so when you do that people assume you mean just the actual serve stroke, not the entirety of the service game. Sinner's strength is his ground game. His serve stroke is not on the level of a Kyrgios, Isner, HH etc.
 

Ray Mercer

Hall of Fame
The only thing that matters is what Sinner does against Djokovic. Is he going to man up and hit the old man off the court from the back or is he going to melt like he usually does and walk his little chicken legs back home.
 

TheSlicer

Professional
Very true.
I dont know how that will turn up, but one thing is for sure, you are not gonna beat Djokovic in 5 sets blasting rockets from the baseline, as he can do against most players, he gonna have to play all court and choose very well when to go to the net, as well as serving good in important points, that we have to have in mind
 

Lauren_Girl'

Hall of Fame
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ATP H2H: 4-2 for Sinner
HC H2H: 2-1 for Sinner
GS H2H: 1-0 for Sinner

One of them will be playing at the AO in SF for the first time, and for Rublev, victory would also bring him the first promotion into the Grand Slam SF. It will be a duel between two players with a great punch, who will be more successful?

GS H2H is 1-0 for Rublev. (Roland 2022)

The best reference is probably Vienna a couple of months ago. Rublev was up 5-2 in the first set and lost 7-5. Then he had a set point in the 2nd set. So, 2 very close sets. I think Sinner will win it but it will be a long match, either 3 close sets or 4.
 
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