AO 2024 QF - (3.) Jannik Sinner vs (5.) Andrey Rublev

[Rattie]

Its gonna be so one sided that Andrey is not even gonna get frustrated

Andrey always gets frustrated, bless him. Such a lovely guy who doesn’t have the edge he needs.

 

[nolefam_2024]

@nolefam_2024 Djokovic double bagelled Mannarino. Sinner should be scared but also at the same time, Mannarino played 3 5 setters and he’s old as well and was probably tired. If Sinner crushed Rublev, Novak should be scared

I only read first 2 sentences.

 

[Rafa.the.Magnificent]

I want Rublev!

 

[ActualTennisPlayer]

Weirdly enough I think rublev might surprise us all against sinner.

I don’t think he wins necessarily but I don’t think Sinner in best of 5 will scare him as much as Djokovic or even Meddy who owns him.

I don’t think Sinner and rublev have played a best of 5 match which makes it interesting.

I think Sinner should win but wouldn’t surprise me if this went 4 or 5 sets. Looking forward to it.

Hopefully rublev recovers physically. I think Rublev can make this more competitive than ADM could.

They played at RG 2022 - I was there. It was a ball bashing festival but it was obvious that sinner just had a better forehand and backhand. Then sinner suddenly stopped due to injury. It was a shame.
And then rublev couldn’t even make it to the semis as he lost next match against old cilic.

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

They played at RG 2022 - I was there. It was a ball bashing festival but it was obvious that sinner just had a better forehand and backhand. Then sinner suddenly stopped due to injury. It was a shame.
And then rublev couldn’t even make it to the semis as he lost next match against old cilic.

I agree. I gone sinner in 4 sets here!

 

[rigged]

I’m not as confident after seeing that pathetic display vs a complete mug like Khachanov last night.

Well, there are good parts to it. I mean, he was serving like **** and still won it in straights without any TB.

However, if he serves like that vs Nole, it's game over.

 

[Kralingen]

Well, there are good parts to it. I mean, he was serving like **** and still won it in straights without any TB.

However, if he serves like that vs Nole, it's game over.

I mean, he’s still a much better player than the definition of mediocrity in Khachanov. But I watched that match, Karen was like 1-10 on BPs and there were a lot of deuce points Khachanov just mugged up. Sinner did find his serve on BPs to be fair. But you watch that and it’s just nowhere near good enough to play vs Novak. He’d lose 6-3, 6-2, 6-4 with a performance like that. Was expecting a lot more.

 

[dking68]

I mean, he’s still a much better player than the definition of mediocrity in Khachanov. But I watched that match, Karen was like 1-10 on BPs and there were a lot of deuce points Khachanov just mugged up. Sinner did find his serve on BPs to be fair. But you watch that and it’s just nowhere near good enough to play vs Novak. He’d lose 6-3, 6-2, 6-4 with a performance like that. Was expecting a lot more.

But @Kralingen you have to admit Sinner’s growth is undeniable. With that crappy serving, he probably would’ve drawn out to five sets in his 2023 form, but in his 2024 he still got it done in straights. I still believe he has a chance against Nole (we both have money on him) but he needs to serve several buckets before that semi and hope that the roof is shut.

 

[Kralingen]

But @Kralingen you have to admit Sinner’s growth is undeniable. With that crappy serving, he probably would’ve drawn out to five sets in his 2023 form, but in his 2024 he still got it done in straights. I still believe he has a chance against Nole (we both have money on him) but he needs to serve several buckets before that semi and hope that the roof is shut.

Yeah, I think it’s not a deal breaker, given that he did advance without much trouble. That’s by far the most important thing. He’ll need all his energy for Rublev. It’s just that, when you compare what level he needs to bring to actually beat Djokovic, he needs to level up.

I’m hoping Nole has a bad serving day in the SFs.

 

[dking68]

Yeah, I think it’s not a deal breaker, given that he did advance without much trouble. That’s by far the most important thing. He’ll need all his energy for Rublev. It’s just that, when you compare what level he needs to bring to actually beat Djokovic, he needs to level up.

I’m hoping Nole has a bad serving day in the SFs.

I’m not giving up on Sinner man. His best chance to beat Nole is in the semi. It would be too tall of an ask for Sinner to do it in his first final. The boy has to turn into a man someday and Cahill is a great tactician, I’m sure he’s been watching all of Djokovic’s matches

 

[Baseline_Bungle]

One factor nobody has mentioned is that Rublev is bad luck for Sinner. Bweh is the only player against whom the Carrot has retired twice.

If he stays healthy, he'll get through.

 

[McGradey]

That Khachanov match was well-navigated by Sinner given he was playing a lot less well than he did in the prior rounds, however with that effort (more than the scoreline suggests) and the Rublev tussle to come, I think Djoko will have some weary legs as his target in the semi. At the tour finals we saw Sinner cool off big time before the job was done — can he manage to avoid that happening across two weeks of best of 5? That's the big question at this point.

Hoping to see some great rallies in the contest with Rublev.

 

[Rosstour]

I'm going Rublo in 5 and I'll explain why in reply to @Kralingen

Sinner in 4.

Rublev never was going to be a slam champion. He isn't even a contender. He is very good like David ferrer.

He's never going to be a GS champ, most likely...but this isn't a Final

Because of his ground game and movement more than anything. I think Sinner’s serve is good indoors but on a HC there’s no doubt Rublev has a better serve, as in just the serve alone.

The issue for Andrey is his Murray esque second serve.

This match is an archetypal Hype Trap for Sinner and if I were into betting I'd be betting heavily on Rublo

Rublev can catch fire and although he is a head case I have seen him hold on in matches he had no business winning. Like that F in Monte Carlo last year vs Rune.

Against a mentally tough player Rublo will be toast. But Sinner is not that. If both players get tilted/tight/choking, I like Rublev's chances. Sinner has to keep cool while Rublev self-destructs.

You're right about Sinner's serve. Not as good. I watched Rublo blow De Minaur off the court 40-0 by just continuing to hit first serves even on the second. Sinner has tinkered with his serve very recently with the stance--he doesn't trust it. If the match gets close he will get tight, while Rublev will just go for broke. Like Annacone says, Sinner's serve is "manufactured" not natural.

 

[Dropshot777]

ATP H2H: 4-2 for Sinner
HC H2H: 2-1 for Sinner
GS H2H: 1-0 for Rublev

One of them will be playing at the AO in SF for the first time, and for Rublev, victory would also bring him the first promotion into the Grand Slam SF. It will be a duel between two players with a great punch, who will be more successful?

Sinner in 4. The balls will fly in this match.

 

[McGradey]

Sinner's return is really, really good. Rublev's is good too but not quite the same level. Rublev's second serve is going to get peppered, and I think that will be a big factor in this match.

 

[doodlyd]

Rublev is tired, he has no chance...Sinner in 3 i think

 

[BeatlesFan]

I want Rublev!

Short hair Rublev would be epic!

 

[doodlyd]

Short hair Rublev would be epic!

give him time )) it helped me ))

 

[ShovelBackhand]

No but in all seriousness name something Rublev does better than Sinner:
Forehand Sinner
Backhand Sinner
Slice Sinner
Touch Sinner
Volley Sinner
Serve Sinner
Return Sinner
Untraumatized by 0-9 GS QF matches Sinner

Rublev's game plan is hit hard and if that doesnt work hit harder
unfortunately Sinner can hit both harder and more accurately than rublev

Sinner in 3 unless it's like 35+ degrees out

Rublev has some decent touch, defintely has had some insane hurkacz type volleys, but unlike sinner doesn't have a coach that is an excellent volleyer and pushing him very hard in the variety sector. You can tell rublev is a pretty decent volleyer with aight feel from his doubles performances, and his backhand has improved this past year in a way that gives him a chance to take advantage of his better stamina. His forehand also has less bad days as sinner you're selling rublev short. This could be a really tough one.

 

[weakera]

Sinner DR 1.79
Rublev DR 1.47

Conditions better for Sinner, he should win unless his first serve goes AWOL.

Djokovic defeats either winner in 4 sets max.

 

[caral]

The boy has to turn into a man someday and Cahill is a great tactician, I’m sure he’s been watching all of Djokovic’s matches

He stated that he does, during Davis Cup talking to italian TV. He said that he was watching djoko playing the day before their match and that they prepare tough matches (who doesn't?), he also said that after his first victories over Medvedev, they decided to serve & volley as a plan to beat him.

Jannik's first enemy is going to be humidity and hot weather in general.

I also noticed that he can stick to the plan until it's going well, then he falls back into his comfort zone. That can work against rublev since he can crush him even from the baseline, but with djoko he needs to hold on even if it doesn't seem to work.

I don't see him winning but after DC matches i'm not so hopeless. Still, if he beats Nole, it's not on 5. It's going to be 3-0, 3-1 or he loses.

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

I’m really looking forward to this one.

I think Sinner wins but we could get some brutal rallies here and hopefully a highly competitive one. Rublev will be motivated to end his QF hoodoo. Sinner will look to make a statement ahead of the semis.

 

[Dwell]

I’m not giving up on Sinner man. His best chance to beat Nole is in the semi. It would be too tall of an ask for Sinner to do it in his first final. The boy has to turn into a man someday and Cahill is a great tactician, I’m sure he’s been watching all of Djokovic’s matches

My biggest problem is that a fresh Alcaraz might be waiting in the final. Sinner's stamina is sub par. I don't want him to beat Legendovic only to crumble like a Starbucks chocolate chip cookie in the final.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Rublev has the slightly better first serve and more solid attacking forehand. Sinner‘s forehand is more variable and resilient and this goes also for his backhand. He holds far more because he can follow up better. While Rublev will redirect well from the baseline to move the opponent Sinner will step more in to finish and is clearly better at the net and with his drop shots.

 

[Rovesciarete]

I mean, he’s still a much better player than the definition of mediocrity in Khachanov. But I watched that match, Karen was like 1-10 on BPs and there were a lot of deuce points Khachanov just mugged up. Sinner did find his serve on BPs to be fair. But you watch that and it’s just nowhere near good enough to play vs Novak. He’d lose 6-3, 6-2, 6-4 with a performance like that. Was expecting a lot more.

Sinner is the hardest guy to convert breakpoints against. To beat Novak he has obviously to serve better…

 

[Deleted member 758560]

 

[tennis24x7]

Sinner's not dropping a set until djokovic

edit match not set

 

[Aabye5]

Sinner in 4

 

[Lauren_Girl']

Retirement by Sinner

Yep, but the semifinal in Vienna was great. Sinner won the most important points but both sets were close. Could've gone either way in both sets. I hope to see a similar match.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Yep, but the semifinal in Vienna was great. Sinner won the most important points but both sets were close. Could've gone either way in both sets. I hope to see a similar match.

I disagree somewhat, Sinner won 81 points against 69 or 54% with a dominance ration of 1.3. That is quite a large margin.

Watch out for the Rublev inside-out against the Sinner backhand and how often it gets directed down-the-line.

 

[Baseline_Bungle]

if I were into betting I'd be betting heavily on Rublo

HEAVILY, eh? Good thing you're not into betting!

 

[Rosstour]

Good thing you're not into betting!

When you bet on Rublev it's called BWEHtting

 

[Rovesciarete]

‘Andrey Ruble, Grand Slam Quarter Finalist’ is another insightful piece by Jeff Sackmann which I just read:

Andrey Rublev is a known quantity. He will hit big first serves, but his second serves can be attacked. He will hit monster forehands, often venturing far into his backhand corner to play them, and his opponents will often be stuck in place, watching them go by. He’ll also miss a lot of them. His backhand isn’t the same type of offensive shot; he can be dragged into long rallies if you pepper that side.

Pretty much as most expect. Very interesting are those sets of stats:

<=3 SPW%………… Matches Match Win%
81%+………….. ……….45 87%
75.5% - 80.9% ………..44 64%
up to 75.4% ……………49 24%
(The buckets are slightly different sizes only because I didn't want to put nearly identical percentages into separate categories.)

A far stronger trend than most other players.

When Rublev wins most of the short service points, he wins the match. When he doesn't, he usually loses. If anything, the table understates this contrast; a disproportionate number of the low-percentage victories came on clay, including several on the slow dirt of Monte Carlo.

And now the key part of this matchup:

Against Sinner, the first three shots are even more important than usual, because the Italian plays a similar game, and once a rally reaches four strokes, he plays that game better. In Miami, Sinner won two-thirds of Rublev's "long" service points. In Monte Carlo, he won 54%, in the vicinity of what de Minaur did yesterday. In Barcelona, Sinner won a whopping 70% of return points when he got the fourth shot in play--as he more often than not did.

Rublev's second serves tell the story, as they did in the de Minaur match. Those, typically, are the points he can't finish early, when he should be thinking in terms of constructing the point, not grunting and crushing. In the four completed Sinner matches, he won only 37.5% of second-serve points. That's not going to get it done.

Of course there is always hope, especially for a strong player like Andrey.

 

[James P]

‘Andrey Ruble, Grand Slam Quarter Finalist’ is another insightful piece by Jeff Sackmann which I just read:



Pretty much as most expect. Very interesting are those sets of stats:



A far stronger trend than most other players.



And now the key part of this matchup:



Of course there is always hope, especially for a strong player like Andrey.

Just read this too, good article.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Just read this too, good article.

I wrote my post and checked Tennisabstract to avoid an error and voila

 

[paolo2143]

Cannot see past a fairly routine win for Sinner unless Andre somehow pulls off a minor miracle

 

[mental midget]

Balls will be bludgeoned.

indeed. could be a close one...edge to sinner, i like the margin on his groundies more than rublev and his serving has been quite good.

 

[Baseline_Bungle]

When you bet on Rublev it's called BWEHtting

My betting site is literally called BWin...

 

[Rattie]

My biggest problem is that a fresh Alcaraz might be waiting in the final. Sinner's stamina is sub par. I don't want him to beat Legendovic only to crumble like a Starbucks chocolate chip cookie in the final.

I do

 

[Krish872007]

Sabalenka doing her best to race through and get Sinner on court asap

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

Sinner really has his work cut out now if he wants his first major. Let’s see what he’s got tonight first.

 

[Dwell]

 

[rigged]

Sabalenka is the real GOAT for helping us watch this match faster.

 

[Spin Diesel]

The winner of this match should try and get it done as quickly as possible, or the chances of being competitive against Djokovic drop even more. Oh man, this sheduling isn't great for a quality semi.

 

[Niekotokio]

The winner of this match should try and get it done as quickly as possible, or the chances of being competitive against Djokovic drop even more. Oh man, this sheduling isn't great for a quality semi.

SF will only go on Friday, there will be time to recover

 

[Spin Diesel]

SF will only go on Friday, there will be time to recover

Yeah, sure - still it's better not to play too long into the night.

 

[KantenKlaar]

The clash of the carrots!

 

[Dwell]

Sinner is taller than Rublev

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

Let’s go! Should be a good one!

 

[Oval_Solid]

match of the year