AO stadium courts much slower than outside courts especially at night - who does it favor on the men’s side?

socallefty

G.O.A.T.

We had Pegula and Andreeva talking about how the stadium courts are much slower than the outside courts especially in the cooler night, Pegula and Sabalenka are also saying that the balls are heavy. Pegula even said it is like playing on a clay court. I think the difference is more in cooler years.

On the men‘s side who does it favor in the second week when most of the late-round matches will be in one of the stadium courts and the marquee matches with star players will be in the cooler night? The star guys in each half like Djokovic, Alcaraz and Sinner are all playing only on the big covered courts and mostly at night - so they should be more acclimated to the slow conditions over the lower seeds who are also playing more on the outside courts. I wonder if the guys who do well on the slow hard court at Indian Wells will be the ones who do well at the AO next week.

Who will this favor in the second week? Top draw - Sinner vs Rune, Michelsen vs DeMinaur, Monfils vs Shelton, Sonego vs Tien. Bottom draw - Djokovic vs Lehecka, Draper vs Alcaraz, ADF vs Paul, Humbert vs Zverev?

Who likes slow conditions and heavy balls? Alcaraz for sure and maybe this is an advantage for him against Djokovic in a possible QF. If Sinner gets through Rune, there are no stars left in his side of the draw and he should coast to the final. DeMinaur and Monfils might like the slower conditions better against the Americans Michelsen and Shelton. Monfils might make it to the semifinal against Sinner if he faces the winner of Sonego/Tien in the QF. Lehecka’s serve might be neutralized and he might be an easier opponent for Djokovic. Paul is not a big hitter and this might not be as big a problem against ADF or even Zverev at night - he made the semi in 2023 when players were also complaining about the heavy balls. Will Humbert put up a bigger fight than you would expect against Zverev if Zverev‘s serve is not as big?

Will it be Sinner-ADM, Monfils-Sonego/Tien, Djokovic-Alcaraz, Paul-Zverev in the QFs? Maybe Sinner-Monfils and Alcaraz-Paul in the semis? Sinner-Alcaraz final? Will this favor Zverev who likes to play passively or will it blunt his serve too much? Better chance for Alcaraz to prevail again against Sinner like he did in Beijing, Roland Garros and Indian Wells last year? If Djokovic magically transforms into the 2023 version or the 2024 Olympic version and finds a way to beat a better-serving Alcaraz, I’m starting to think that betting on him to win the title might not be a far-fetched bet.

What do you guys think?
 
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It will favour the guys who can hammer the ball and come the closest to hitting through the conditions. Being able to grind defensively would help, being able to attack the net and keep the points shorter should too.
In 2023 when there were similar complaints, it was Djokovic vs Tsitsipas in the final while Paul and Khachanov were the other semifinalists. I don’t know what pattern that reveals though as Paul is more of a light hitter compared to the other three. Maybe you don’t need an elite BH in these conditions as you can run around it more - fits for Tsitsipas, Khachanov and Paul. If you follow the premise that it affects big servers who like the BH wing the most, the player most affected might be Zverev.

There seem to be a lot of breaks of serve just like in 2023 on the stadium courts - Med-Tien had 19 breaks! So the biggest problem might be for the big servers especially for games 7-9 when they are older. I’ve started counting the number of games with each set of balls like I do on clay/IW/2023AO because you can predict that there will be more breaks of serve in the late games with old balls.
 
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In 2023 when there were similar complaints, it was Djokovic vs Tsitsipas in the final while Paul and Khachanov were the other semifinalists. I don’t know what pattern that reveals though as Paul is more of a light hitter compared to the other three. Maybe you don’t need an elite BH in these conditions as you can run around it more - fits for Tsitsipas, Khachanov and Paul.

There seem to be a lot of breaks of serve just like in 2023 on the stadium courts - Med-Tien had 19 breaks! So the biggest problem might be for the big servers especially for games 7-9 when they are older. I’ve started counting the number of games with each set of balls like I do on clay/IW/2023AO because you can predict that there will be more breaks of serve in the late games with old balls.
The courts being slower at night is not exactly new or specific to this tournament, it's just the way night matches are. I'm sure similar stuff has always been said about the way show courts play too. Hardcourts being played on less probably helps. I think the balls are a post-Covid thing, but the rest of this stuff has always been true.

Anyway, I'm not sure Paul played any night matches in 2023, and I doubt he got on a show court until the Shelton match in the QF, which was definitely during the day. In the semifinal he was awful, so it tracks. :D

I do think smart servers would be better off, big servers worse off, and great returners have an advantage.
 
Slower favors Djokovic who is now slower than a kettle, compared to Alcaraz!
That's why Djokovic beat Alcaraz at 2024 Clay Olympics...
Whereas the AO is a lot quicker so Alcaraz can rush Djokovic bigly :giggle:
 
Slower surface = less incisiveness of the serve. So the automatic answer is Alcaraz, of the 4 favorites of the tournament he is the one who receives the least from the serve.
 
The courts being slower at night is not exactly new or specific to this tournament, it's just the way night matches are. I'm sure similar stuff has always been said about the way show courts play too.
I think the effact is more in cooler summers in Oz especially after the post-COVID manufactured Dunlop AO balls started to fluff up very quickly.
 
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Probably is more slowish because of the balls.

I remember because of that in 2023 Djoker was forced to blast the ball more to win the AO.

The night conditions favor both players in different ways, but in the end it will favour more Djoker because the ball will be more dead and Alcaraz will not be able to employ his super spin shot.

But Alcaraz is trying to adapt to these type of condition by making his racket heavier. We will have to see if he already got the hang of it, but probably not because these thing take time and Djoker is on a mission with Murray on his team because both are extremely obsessed with the game.
 

We had Pegula and Andreeva talking about how the stadium courts are much slower than the outside courts especially in the cooler night, Pegula and Sabalenka are also saying that the balls are heavy. Pegula even said it is like playing on a clay court. I think the difference is more in cooler years.

On the men‘s side who does it favor in the second week when most of the late-round matches will be in one of the stadium courts and the marquee matches with star players will be in the cooler night? The star guys in each half like Djokovic, Alcaraz and Sinner are all playing only on the big covered courts and mostly at night - so they should be more acclimated to the slow conditions over the lower seeds who are also playing more on the outside courts. I wonder if the guys who do well on the slow hard court at Indian Wells will be the ones who do well at the AO next week.

Who will this favor in the second week? Top draw - Sinner vs Rune, Michelsen vs DeMinaur, Monfils vs Shelton, Sonego vs Tien. Bottom draw - Djokovic vs Lehecka, Draper vs Alcaraz, ADF vs Paul, Humbert vs Zverev?

Who likes slow conditions and heavy balls? Alcaraz for sure and maybe this is an advantage for him against Djokovic in a possible QF. If Sinner gets through Rune, there are no stars left in his side of the draw and he should coast to the final. DeMinaur and Monfils might like the slower conditions better against the Americans Michelsen and Shelton. Monfils might make it to the semifinal against Sinner if he faces the winner of Sonego/Tien in the QF. Lehecka’s serve might be neutralized and he might be an easier opponent for Djokovic. Paul is not a big hitter and this might not be as big a problem against ADF or even Zverev at night - he made the semi in 2023 when players were also complaining about the heavy balls. Will Humbert put up a bigger fight than you would expect against Zverev if Zverev‘s serve is not as big?

Will it be Sinner-ADM, Monfils-Sonego/Tien, Djokovic-Alcaraz, Paul-Zverev in the QFs? Maybe Sinner-Monfils and Alcaraz-Paul in the semis? Sinner-Alcaraz final? Will this favor Zverev who likes to play passively or will it blunt his serve too much? Better chance for Alcaraz to prevail again against Sinner like he did in Beijing, Roland Garros and Indian Wells last year? If Djokovic magically transforms into the 2023 version or the 2024 Olympic version and finds a way to beat a better-serving Alcaraz, I’m starting to think that betting on him to win the title might not be a far-fetched bet.

What do you guys think?
Night conditions hugely favour Sinner and Alcaraz. Heavier balls allows them to crunch the ball and they will hit less UFEs. Used to help Djokovic as well although i suspect now once he meets better players the slower conditions will be a problem for him as his serve wont be as effective.
Zverev will want day conditions as his serve is unplayable in day conditions it seems to me.
 
Probably is more slowish because of the balls.

I remember because of that in 2023 Djoker was forced to blast the ball more to win the AO.

The night conditions favor both players in different ways, but in the end it will favour more Djoker because the ball will be more dead and Alcaraz will not be able to employ his super spin shot.

But Alcaraz is trying to adapt to these type of condition by making his racket heavier. We will have to see if he already got the hang of it, but probably not because these thing take time and Djoker is on a mission with Murray on his team because both are extremely obsessed with the game.
Alcaraz is far better in heavier conditions. He has won two wimbledons on the bounce at the slam that has the heaviest balls. His best performances at the FO and AO have come at night throughout his career. People seem to want him to be some sort of clone of nadal because his RPM on the FH is bigger than Nadal's so people assume the effect of his ball will be like Nadal but it is misguided nonsense.
1. Alcaraz is right handed so his shot to most players BH's is automatically flatter than Nadal's was as an off forehand is flatter than a cross court FH
2. Alccaraz stands closer to the baseline than Nadal so his ball trajectory is lower so although hit with more RPM doesnt actually bounce as high
The key advantage Alcaraz has at night is on return. The slower conditions hugely help him on return as does the lower bounce.
Djokovic should be demanding a day session match for this.
 
Will it be Sinner-ADM, Monfils-Sonego/Tien, Djokovic-Alcaraz, Paul-Zverev in the QFs?
Fourth round predictions turned out good except for the Monfils retirement and and I didn’t try to guess who would win between Sonego/Tien. In QFs, I predicted Sinner and Alcaraz would get through while Paul would upset Zverev. Also said Monfils would win, but now I’m predicting Shelton over Sonego. Let’s see what happens especially with the 10-time champ.
 
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