April 22nd Rankings (Spoiler Alert)

[TopDawg]

Here is what they look like through today. Still several matches left this weekend that will cause some movement.

If Texas A&M wins the SEC they'd pass Georgia and move into 9th. Kentucky would also pass Georgia and move into 9th if they won the SEC. If Florida wins the SEC at best they'd move to 14 but may still stay at 15. If Vanderbilt won it they'd move up to 16.

North Carolina will move to 7th with a win over Duke. Duke would be right around 10 with a win over North Carolina.


1 USC 76.63
2 Ohio State 75.95
3 Oklahoma 74.33
4 Virginia 69.38
5 UCLA 68.91
6 Baylor 66.99
7 Texas 60.27
8 North Carolina 59.32
9 Georgia 56.99
10 Texas A&M 55.27
11 Illinois 53.18
12 Kentucky 52.54
13 Notre Dame 52.31
14 Duke 51.61
15 Florida 45.90
16 California 39.11
17 Clemson 37.38
18 Mississippi State 37.10
19 Columbia 36.78
20 Vanderbilt 35.34
21 Tennessee 34.72
22 Memphis 34.21
23 Penn State 31.95
24 Boise State* 29.86
25 South Florida 28.38
26 South Carolina 27.90
27 Oklahoma State* 27.53
28 Wake Forest 27.35
29 NC State* 25.36
30 Purdue* 24.98
31 Florida State 24.48
32 Harvard 24.42
33 Northwestern* 24.13
34 Texas Tech* 23.58
35 Alabama* 23.06
36 Louisville* 22.85
37 Stanford* 22.17
38 Virginia Tech* 21.92
39 Ole Miss* 21.85
40 Drake* 21.59
41 Auburn* 21.28
42 Dartmouth* 20.25
43 San Diego* 20.06
44 LSU 18.35
45 Tulsa* 17.89
46 Oregon* 17.72
47 Michigan* 17.23
48 UNC Wilmington* 15.97
49 VCU* 15.38
50 Miami FL* 14.99

 

[Clemson_tennis]

Is San Diego likely to be in even if they lose the west coast title?

 

[TopDawg]

Is San Diego likely to be in even if they lose the west coast title?

They'd be right on the cutoff. Pepperdine would have to win to get in.

 

[chris-swede]

Ole miss still very low as they ve beaten 4 top21 teams and worst loss vs 48th michigan.

 

[chris-swede]

What about tcu? They beat ttech last night.

 

[chris-swede]

And what about Mich State. Theyve beaten purdue.

 

[collegetennisdude]

Rankings update? What if aggies lose to Florida??

 

[Clemson_tennis]

And what about Mich State. Theyve beaten purdue.

No chance for an unranked team at this point unless they pull multiple big upsets

 

[TopDawg]

Rankings update? What if aggies lose to Florida??

Texas A&M is currently 9th ahead of Georgia but if they lose to Florida they'll fall back behind them to 10th. If A&M beats Florida and UNC loses to Duke A&M would jump up to 8th.

 

[TopDawg]

Through Saturday matches:

1 USC 76.63
2 Ohio State 75.95
3 Oklahoma 74.33
4 Virginia 69.38
5 UCLA 68.91
6 Baylor 66.99
7 Texas 60.27
8 North Carolina 59.32
9 Texas A&M 57.23
10 Georgia 56.99
11 Illinois 53.18
12 Notre Dame 52.31
13 Duke 51.61
14 Kentucky 51.17
15 Florida 48.15
16 Clemson 37.38
17 Mississippi State 37.10
18 Columbia 36.78
19 California 36.48
20 Tennessee 34.72
21 Vanderbilt 34.56
22 Memphis 34.21
23 Penn State 31.95
24 South Florida 30.04
25 Boise State* 29.86
26 NC State 28.95
27 Stanford* 28.50
28 South Carolina 27.90
29 Oklahoma State* 27.53
30 Florida State 26.28
31 Wake Forest 25.96
32 Purdue* 24.98
33 Harvard 24.42
34 Northwestern* 24.13
35 Texas Tech* 23.20
36 Alabama* 23.06
37 Virginia Tech* 21.92
38 Ole Miss* 21.85
39 Louisville* 21.67
40 Drake* 21.59
41 Auburn* 21.28
42 Dartmouth* 20.25
43 San Diego* 20.06
44 LSU 18.35
45 Tulsa* 17.89
46 Michigan* 17.23
47 TCU* 16.45
48 Oregon* 16.27
49 UNC Wilmington* 15.97
50 VCU* 15.38

 

[TopDawg]

This has Sunday's results added - Texas A&M jumps up to 8th by winning the SEC and having UNC lose to Duke. Duke jumps up to 11 with the win over UNC.

Big gap between 15 and 16 so it's pretty safe to say the top 15 will all stay in the top 15 and should host a regional.

Both Tulsa and UNC Wilmington are in with their conference's automatic bid. Michigan, Dartmouth, and San Diego are right on the cutoff line as of today.

1 USC 76.63
2 Ohio State 75.95
3 Oklahoma 74.33
4 Virginia 69.38
5 UCLA 68.91
6 Baylor 66.99
7 Texas 61.45
8 Texas A&M 58.64
9 North Carolina 57.50
10 Georgia 56.99
11 Duke 55.64
12 Illinois 53.18
13 Notre Dame 52.31
14 Kentucky 51.17
15 Florida 46.92
16 Clemson 37.38
17 Mississippi State 37.10
18 Columbia 36.78
19 California 36.48
20 Tennessee 34.72
21 Vanderbilt 34.56
22 South Florida 33.63
23 Memphis* 32.41
24 Penn State 31.95
25 Boise State* 29.86
26 NC State 28.95
27 Stanford* 28.50
28 Oklahoma State* 27.53
29 South Carolina 27.35
30 Florida State 26.28
31 Wake Forest 25.96
32 Northwestern* 25.39
33 Harvard 24.42
34 Purdue* 23.34
35 Texas Tech* 23.20
36 Alabama* 23.06
37 Virginia Tech* 21.92
38 Ole Miss* 21.85
39 Louisville* 21.67
40 Drake* 21.59
41 Auburn* 21.28
42 Michigan* 20.68
43 Dartmouth* 20.25
44 San Diego* 20.06
45 Tulsa* - 18.60
46 LSU 18.35
47 UNC Wilmington* 16.74
48 TCU* 16.45
49 Oregon* 16.27
50 Pepperdine* 14.89

 

[Clemson_tennis]

Michigan is suddenly in the discussion again. They looked done earlier. TCU now within striking distance as well. I don't know how the Big 12 does tiebreakers because that will be huge for TCU. If they are slotted at 6 then will have to play one of the big 3 but if they are 4 or 5 then could face OK State or Texas Tech and get a very winnable chance to boost their ranking into the tournament zone.

 

[DaveKB]

Question for Top Dawg-

Regardless of the rankings and based your knowledge of the teams who are the "real" top 10 teams in order based on tennis talent. I have been convinced all season that UVA and UCLA were the top two, but now that UCLA has lost to USC twice I have to move USC into the top 2. It really is shaping up to be the most balanced NCAA team tourney in a long time.

Here is my top 10,
1) UVA (I acknowledge that I am biased, but Domijan is playing lights out)
2) USC
3) UCLA
4) OSU
5) Okla
6) TAMU
7) Baylor
8) Texas (I typed an "8" and I got this icon, so no offense to Texas)
9) UGA
10) Duke

Given the likely hot weather (90+) in Athens and with the QF, SF, and F on three consecutive days for the men, the winner may be the one who survives the heat the best.

Do you think any team outside my top 4 have any chance of winning the NCAA's given who they will have to beat to do it? I just do not see it, but the QF's should be outstanding with upsets very possible this year.

I expect all other team's coaches are secretly hoping UVA and UCLA play each other in the QF's and that all lines play for 4+ hours. Then one will lose and the other will be dead tired and too worn out to win two more matches in that weather.

Others are welcome to add their opinions on this matter.

 

[Hmmmmm]

all right, i'll bite.

1) USC, I think they've done the best job of winning their big matches and disposing of the pretenders.
2) UVA, playing very well of late.
3) UCLA, great talent that will be tough to beat.
Those three are the best with the deepest lineups. Oklahoma is fourth, but there are weak spots at 5 and 6.
5) Ohio State has more weak spots than Oklahoma and I'm tempted to put Baylor here, but winning the Indoors gives them tons of cred in my book.
6) Baylor. Incredibly solid and can beat anyone. And that's the cutoff line of the teams I think can win the Ncaa's.
Texas A&M, too inconsistent. Texas, not enough talent to play with the big boys. Same with the rest. Might give the Top six some trouble, but will fall in the end. And if they do win a QF, I don't think they'll be able to win two more matches.

 

[TopDawg]

Do you think any team outside my top 4 have any chance of winning the NCAA's given who they will have to beat to do it? I just do not see it, but the QF's should be outstanding with upsets very possible this year.

If USC, UCLA, and Virginia aren't on the same side of the draw then I don't see anyone else beside one of them winning it. However if those 3 end up on the same side of the draw as the 1, 4, and 5 seeds, which means 1 would have to beat the other 2 in the QF and SF and thus potentially be on fumes by the final, then I could see whoever comes out of the other half having a much better chance than original expected. Who that team is could be one of several it just depends on how the draw shakes out.

 

[Gracelhink]

My prognostications...
#1 UVA, starting to get strong play out of Frank and Domijan. If Sty and the Shane's can put it together, I like their chances.
#2 OSU, overlooked at the Indoors, and seems likely at the NCAA as well.
recently they have some close and ugly wins, but have strength at #4-6 that could carry the team well.
#3 Ucla, talented and deep.
#4 USC, could be at a disadvantage if they are in the #1,4,5 seed side.
#5 Georgia, home court advantage still makes a difference and could factor into a shocker of an upset.
#6-8, Baylor, Oklahoma, and Texas A&m.

 

[SoCal10s]

so what's the benefit of this Pac 12 (Ojai) tournament? does it changes any thing in rankings if UCLA beats USC in the finals?

 

[TopDawg]

so what's the benefit of this Pac 12 (Ojai) tournament? does it changes any thing in rankings if UCLA beats USC in the finals?

If UCLA wins they'd move up to #1 or #2 depending on who wins the Big 12. USC would drop a few spots too so there's a good bit still at stake.

 

[chris-swede]

how high will ole miss get next week? most of their wins got better this weekend, A&M, Vanderbilt, SMU, (and their worst loss vs Michigan also got better)

 

[TopDawg]

I think they'll stay about the same because even though A&M went up 3 spots and Vandy 2 spots Tennessee dropped 2 spots and 2 of their best wins were over TN. The Michigan loss will still count .8 because teams ranked 41-50 count the same and while Michigan was 49 last week they won't be better than 41 so no change. The LSU loss will improve by .1 but the Auburn loss will drop by .1.

 

[collegetennisdude]

Hey top dawg. Can you help me out a little? Interested in a&m where they will end up with the acc tournament being played this weekend and duke and North Carolina right behind them, what are there possible rankings after that tournament??? Also any chance they can jump Texas??? Also who will Finnish one after PAC 12 and big 12 and big 10 tournies!? Ohio state usc or ou??? Thanks!!!

 

[TopDawg]

I'll look at it later today and tomorrow to try and work some of the scenarios out. The rankings for next week are a little more complicated than normal because the ITA actually runs them twice but only publishes the 2nd one after NCAA seedings are announced. When I say they run them twice what that means is the regular rankings for next week are based off the points that come from the rankings released today, then after those are finished on Sunday night, they run another set of rankings based off the points from those unpublished rankings. I should be able to pinpoint most of the top 20 but may be off a little after that but I'll see how close I can get it.

 

[Clemson_tennis]

Not relevant as far as this years tournament but big for Washington and Michigan State to get in the rankings at 66 and 61 respectively for next year's ITA kickoff weekend tournament.

 

[chris-swede]

Sarmiento/Hanfmann are new no.1 in doubles
Lenz is on 2 in singles, wow
Scholtz is #9 now, great !

 

[chris-swede]

TCu is 47th now..so close

 

[TopDawg]

TCu is 47th now..so close

They almost beat Oklahoma at home once let's see if they can finish the drill this time.

 

[Clemson_tennis]

They almost beat Oklahoma at home once let's see if they can finish the drill this time.

would have been nice for them if they could have got OK State or Texas Tech in the Big 12 tourney.

 

[collegetennisdude]

Thanks topdawg

 

[TopDawg]

Hey top dawg. Can you help me out a little? Interested in a&m where they will end up with the acc tournament being played this weekend and duke and North Carolina right behind them, what are there possible rankings after that tournament??? Also any chance they can jump Texas??? Also who will Finnish one after PAC 12 and big 12 and big 10 tournies!? Ohio state usc or ou??? Thanks!!!

I don't believe Texas A&M will be able to pass Texas even if Texas loses to Oklahoma on Saturday (that's assuming OU beat TCU). If UNC were to beat Duke if they met in the ACC semis then I think UNC would pass A&M though I don't think Duke would unless they won the ACC.

I can't really determine who will finish #1 until Sunday/Monday because there are too many variables right now with every result potentially reshuffling the deck and causing teams to move up or down a spot here or there.

The only scenario I ran and it took a while of crunching numbers was with USC beating UCLA to win the Pac 12, Virginia beating Duke to win the ACC, Ohio State beating Illinois to win the Big 10, and Baylor beating Oklahoma to win the Big 12. If all that happened I believe Oklahoma (even by losing to Baylor) would finish ranked #1 ahead of USC by the slightest of margins with Virginia 3rd, Ohio State 4th, Baylor 5th, and UCLA 6th.

Lots of assumptions were made and with the margins so thin in some places 1 thing going differently like UNC beating Duke or Oklahoma beating Texas & Baylor or even Illinois losing to Penn State could change everything so I really can't pinpoint them better with any certainty until Sunday/Monday.

As I mentioned the next rankings to come out are done twice so they'll take the results from this weekend to determine a new set of rankings and then those rankings will be used to come up with the final rankings.

 

[collegetennisdude]

Thanks top dawg your awesome. Hopefully see you in athens and I can reveal myself!