Article: The Secret Behind Federer’s Five-Match Win Streak Against Nadal

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The Secret Behind Federer’s Five-Match Win Streak Against Nadal

Roger Federer broke down Rafael Nadal’s much-vaunted return game during his 6-4, 6-3 victory in the Shanghai Rolex Masters final by hitting the corners of the service boxes at will, and by staying a step ahead in the guessing game of which corner he was aiming at next. Federer’s serve was completely dialed in, leaving Nadal to continuously play catch-up on the quick indoor court.

The pair has now played 38 times, with the Spaniard holding a 23-15 advantage. The following metrics show how dominant Federer was on serve and how Nadal was unable to make an impact on return.

Nadal Return Statistics v Federer

Lowest: 2nd Serve Return Points Won = 21% (3/14)

It was the lowest percentage of second serve points won by Nadal in their 38 matches. The next lowest was 25 per cent (5/20) won at Indian Wells earlier this year, when Federer dominated 6-2, 6-3. Overall, Nadal has won 50 per cent (679/1348) of second serve points head-to-head against Federer.

Lowest: Percentage Return Points Won = 18% (8/44)

The 18 per cent return points won represents a career low for Nadal against Federer. In all of their other matches, Nadal has averaged winning 38 per cent (1347/3570) of his combined first- and second-serve return points.

Equal Lowest: Total Return Points Won = 8

This ties the lowest total for first and second serve points won with their 2011 Nitto ATP Finals clash, which Federer won 6-3, 6-0. Those two matches represent the only two times out of 38 that Nadal has been in single figures for return points won.

Equal Third Lowest: Total First-Serve Return Points Won = 5

Nadal only won six points against Federer’s first serve in their 2017 Indian Wells encounter, and won one less Sunday in Shanghai, with just five points won.

2017 Shanghai Final - First Serve Location Deuce Court

It was all about the mix for the Swiss. Federer served 12 times out wide in the deuce court, and 14 times down the middle. This even mix constantly had Nadal guessing, and, more often than not, it was the wrong way.

Federer won 10 of 12 service points out wide in the deuce court, with four being backhand return errors from Nadal. Federer won a perfect 8/8 when he made his first serve down the middle T in the Deuce court, including four aces and a service winner.

In the ad court, Federer served 14 times out wide, making 10, and winning seven. He served nine times down the middle T, making eight, and winning five. Nadal had no idea where Federer was going, or when.

The Five-Match Win Streak

Federer has now beaten Nadal five straight times for the first time, with four victories coming this year, and one back in 2015. The following 10 metrics showcase just how dominant Federer’s serve has been during the five-match win streak.

  1. When leading 15/0 on serve, Federer has held every time (42/42).
  2. When Federer has been pushed to deuce, he has held 93 per cent (13/14) of the time.
  3. Federer’s career first-serve percentage is 62 per cent. He is making 63 per cent (240/379) during the streak.
  4. Federer has hit 52 aces and just seven double faults. Nadal has served just 14 aces, while also committing seven double faults.
  5. Federer’s career first-serve points won is 77 per cent. He is winning 79 per cent (189/240) now against Nadal.
  6. Federer has averaged saving 67 per cent of his break points in his career, but that has sky-rocketed to 80% (20/25) during the five-match win streak. Nadal is at 63 per cent.
  7. Nadal has averaged winning 34 per cent of his first-serve return points for his career, but is only at 21 per cent (51/240) during the five matches.
  8. Nadal has averaged winning 55 per cent of his second-serve return points for his career, but is only at 42 per cent (59/139) during the five matches.
  9. Nadal has only won 19 per cent (4/21) of break points returning in the ad court.
  10. Federer has only found himself down 0/30 seven times in the five matches, winning three of those games.
Nadal did make an adjustment in the Shanghai final by moving further back to return against Federer. That tactic worked for Nadal in the 2017 US Open final against Kevin Anderson, but didn’t make a difference against Federer yesterday.

More adjustments, more tweaks, and more video analysis of Federer’s streak will be needed by the Spaniard to figure out his recent returning conundrum.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/federer-brain-game-shanghai-2017-final

 
The secret (or non secret) is that Rafa no longer moves well and his defense has heavily dissipated. Plus Fed HAS made a good effort to come over his BH properly and has been a bit less stubborn in his tactics. Biggest thing is that Fed can count on plenty of free points taking advantage of Rafa returning from the toilet and then he’s now able to win many of the rallies.
 
It was clear that Nadal needed to stand closer to the baseline to return Federer's serve. Not something he feels comfortable changing for one match in a tournament. His return position worked against everyone else but Federer is a wily old fox with one of the best serves on tour.

Nadal also made some unforced errors even when he had Federer on the run. He needed to play shots like he did against Kyrgios in Beijing final. But Federer probably serves even better than Nick against Nadal and Nadal clearly is the more nervous player in their match-up these days.
 
BeatlesFan said:
The Secret Behind Federer’s Five-Match Win Streak Against Nadal

Roger Federer broke down Rafael Nadal’s much-vaunted return game during his 6-4, 6-3 victory in the Shanghai Rolex Masters final by hitting the corners of the service boxes at will, and by staying a step ahead in the guessing game of which corner he was aiming at next. Federer’s serve was completely dialed in, leaving Nadal to continuously play catch-up on the quick indoor court.

The pair has now played 38 times, with the Spaniard holding a 23-15 advantage. The following metrics show how dominant Federer was on serve and how Nadal was unable to make an impact on return.

Nadal Return Statistics v Federer

Lowest: 2nd Serve Return Points Won = 21% (3/14)

It was the lowest percentage of second serve points won by Nadal in their 38 matches. The next lowest was 25 per cent (5/20) won at Indian Wells earlier this year, when Federer dominated 6-2, 6-3. Overall, Nadal has won 50 per cent (679/1348) of second serve points head-to-head against Federer.

Lowest: Percentage Return Points Won = 18% (8/44)

The 18 per cent return points won represents a career low for Nadal against Federer. In all of their other matches, Nadal has averaged winning 38 per cent (1347/3570) of his combined first- and second-serve return points.

Equal Lowest: Total Return Points Won = 8

This ties the lowest total for first and second serve points won with their 2011 Nitto ATP Finals clash, which Federer won 6-3, 6-0. Those two matches represent the only two times out of 38 that Nadal has been in single figures for return points won.

Equal Third Lowest: Total First-Serve Return Points Won = 5

Nadal only won six points against Federer’s first serve in their 2017 Indian Wells encounter, and won one less Sunday in Shanghai, with just five points won.

2017 Shanghai Final - First Serve Location Deuce Court

It was all about the mix for the Swiss. Federer served 12 times out wide in the deuce court, and 14 times down the middle. This even mix constantly had Nadal guessing, and, more often than not, it was the wrong way.

Federer won 10 of 12 service points out wide in the deuce court, with four being backhand return errors from Nadal. Federer won a perfect 8/8 when he made his first serve down the middle T in the Deuce court, including four aces and a service winner.

In the ad court, Federer served 14 times out wide, making 10, and winning seven. He served nine times down the middle T, making eight, and winning five. Nadal had no idea where Federer was going, or when.

The Five-Match Win Streak

Federer has now beaten Nadal five straight times for the first time, with four victories coming this year, and one back in 2015. The following 10 metrics showcase just how dominant Federer’s serve has been during the five-match win streak.




    • When leading 15/0 on serve, Federer has held every time (42/42).
    • When Federer has been pushed to deuce, he has held 93 per cent (13/14) of the time.
    • Federer’s career first-serve percentage is 62 per cent. He is making 63 per cent (240/379) during the streak.
    • Federer has hit 52 aces and just seven double faults. Nadal has served just 14 aces, while also committing seven double faults.
    • Federer’s career first-serve points won is 77 per cent. He is winning 79 per cent (189/240) now against Nadal.
    • Federer has averaged saving 67 per cent of his break points in his career, but that has sky-rocketed to 80% (20/25) during the five-match win streak. Nadal is at 63 per cent.
    • Nadal has averaged winning 34 per cent of his first-serve return points for his career, but is only at 21 per cent (51/240) during the five matches.
    • Nadal has averaged winning 55 per cent of his second-serve return points for his career, but is only at 42 per cent (59/139) during the five matches.
    • Nadal has only won 19 per cent (4/21) of break points returning in the ad court.
    • Federer has only found himself down 0/30 seven times in the five matches, winning three of those games.
Nadal did make an adjustment in the Shanghai final by moving further back to return against Federer. That tactic worked for Nadal in the 2017 US Open final against Kevin Anderson, but didn’t make a difference against Federer yesterday.

More adjustments, more tweaks, and more video analysis of Federer’s streak will be needed by the Spaniard to figure out his recent returning conundrum.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/federer-brain-game-shanghai-2017-final
Click to expand...
Nads at @21% 2nd return points won sets off alarm bells.
 
Backspin1183 said:
It was clear that Nadal needed to stand closer to the baseline to return Federer's serve. Not something he feels comfortable changing for one match in a tournament. His return position worked against everyone else but Federer is a wily old fox with one of the best serves on tour.

Nadal also made some unforced errors even when he had Federer on the run. He needed to play shots like he did against Kyrgios in Beijing final. But Federer probably serves even better than Nick against Nadal and Nadal clearly is the more nervous player in their match-up these days.
Click to expand...

Yet Fed deemed it was necessary to overhaul his game for Nadal! However the upshot of it is that this improved backhand and court positioning will help Roger beat Novak again in 2018.
 
The first stat is also most impressive to me because Nadal was always the guy who could stop Federer's momentum on serve even sometimes when he got rolling. He was never comfortable against Nadal even when he was up 30 or 40-0, and I was even less comfortable watching it, but now he wins the first point and it's an automatic hold. That's impressive.

Standing farther back isn't the answer for Nadal either. He needs to stand closer. The problem for him is he's extremely uncomfortable doing it.
 
YellowFedBetter said:
Nadal was 6-6 against Fed on HC’s and 3-0 in slams before 2015. Only since Nadal’s movement has declined has Fed taken over on HC’s.
Click to expand...
yeah and fed sure moves like a spring chicken out there. Only reason Nadal was 6-6 on HC was because peak Nadal on HC took advantage of garbage Federer 4 times. What's happening now is simply making up for that, but not really, because 2017 Federer is nowhere near peak Federer and 2017 Nadal is one of the better versions of Nadal on HC, not the worst. Just proves that when the playing field is level, i.e. both are past their best, which it wasn't in most of their previous meetings which were prime Nadal vs declining Federer on slow courts, Federer is a much better HC player.
 
The analysis is flawed as it was an indoor match. It was 5-1 indoors before shanghai.

We will only know if Federer has worked Nadal out if he can beat this post Madrid (Nadal went up a few levels after beating Djokovic) Nadal on an outdoor hard court like at Flushing Meadows. Or on clay of course.
 
The big factors IMO:
- Fed's been hitting his BH well at the times he's encountered Rafa (I felt at other times this year it went away).
- Rafa's a bit slower, even compared to 2014/5. He's certainly striking the ball well tho.
- Rafa's ROS seems to be as bad as its ever been.
 
vex said:
The big factors IMO:
- Fed's been hitting his BH well at the times he's encountered Rafa (I felt at other times this year it went away).
- Rafa's a bit slower, even compared to 2014/5. He's certainly striking the ball well tho.
- Rafa's ROS seems to be as bad as its ever been.
Click to expand...

Those look more like excuses than factors IMO.
 
YellowFedBetter said:
I meant not stalking but literally following me on this site.

Maybe I am patronizing at times but I think it pales in comparison to the way others talk to me and the way I’ve been personally attacked at times. Mind you you haven’t done that and you’re not one of the worst offenders on here but I have to stand up for my feelings and thoughts. It’s why my friend Ghost has left this place for the next month. The fan wars just get tiresome.
Click to expand...
It's true, they do.

But to be fair, she didn't leave only because the fan wars get tiresome, she left because Rafa lost. Only then the fan wars are tiresome. If he had won, she would have sticked around because when your favorite is winning the fan wars are bearable.
 
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vex said:
The big factors IMO:
- Fed's been hitting his BH well at the times he's encountered Rafa (I felt at other times this year it went away).
- Rafa's a bit slower, even compared to 2014/5. He's certainly striking the ball well tho.
- Rafa's ROS seems to be as bad as its ever been.
Click to expand...
On the contrary. There was a thread showcasing how Rafa has had the best return of serve this year.
 
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Reactions: vex
Meles said:
Nads at @21% 2nd return points won sets off alarm bells.
Click to expand...
Those were indeed shockingly bad return numbers for Nadal. Interestingly, the other guy who really punished Nadal for standing way back for returns was Muller. So does this mean the brute power 140 mph serving guys like Kyrgios or Raonic badly lack guile?
 
mike danny said:
On the contrary. There was a thread showcasing how Rafa has had the best return of serve this year.
Click to expand...
If I'm not wrong this thread was opened by clayqueen. Well, she has the ability to find some strange stats. But in fact Nadal's return of serve outside of clay is really not good, and not just this year. After USO 2013 final Nadal played against Djokovic 7 times on hardcourt and broke him just TWICE. More than that, he had almost no break points. And Djokovic isn't even a great server. So I can't say I'm surprised with his return stats against Federer who serves much better. He has many problems on return, especially on the deuce side.
 
fedtennisphan said:
Ahhhh. A Djoke fan. That’s makes your analysis even less legit.
Click to expand...
When you can't make any good points this is what you devolve into ^^^

Hilarious that twice now you got the rug pulled out from under you and just spun onto a different topic with no self respect in trying to defend your earlier position. #Sad
 
Dolgopolov85 said:
Those were indeed shockingly bad return numbers for Nadal. Interestingly, the other guy who really punished Nadal for standing way back for returns was Muller. So does this mean the brute power 140 mph serving guys like Kyrgios or Raonic badly lack guile?
Click to expand...
Pretty obvious Nadal was damaged goods in this last match.:rolleyes: We'll see how damaged. Still considering Basel. A Nadal showing in Basel does make this beating more credible.:oops:

It means that on really fast courts everyone's serve is better with placement becoming more paramount much like grass. Everyone on a good day is a servebot.;) This last match brings up the good ole days of Sampras vs. Agassi at US Open/Wimbledon.
sleepy2.gif
 
Meles said:
Pretty obvious Nadal was damaged goods in this last match.:rolleyes: We'll see how damaged. Still considering Basel. A Nadal showing in Basel does make this beating more credible.:oops:

It means that on really fast courts everyone's serve is better with placement becoming more paramount much like grass. Everyone on a good day is a servebot.;) This last match brings up the good ole days of Sampras vs. Agassi at US Open/Wimbledon.
sleepy2.gif
Click to expand...

There's nothing obvious about it. He didn't look damaged to me at all. At the AO 2014 final when he played Wawrinka, he looked damaged but not in the Shanghai final!
 
cc0509 said:
There's nothing obvious about it. He didn't look damaged to me at all. At the AO 2014 final when he played Wawrinka, he looked damaged but not in the Shanghai final!
Click to expand...
Come on.:rolleyes: The only other player to get worse from Federer this year was Dolgopolov who is all over the place.:oops: 80% 2nd serve won in a match to me indicates a major problem (tanking or physical by opponent). It's pretty clear on this board what is going on
doggie-puppy1.gif

LOL no surface threads after Beijing, etc., but now they all come out after this match.:rolleyes:
 
Meles said:
Come on.:rolleyes: The only other player to get worse from Federer this year was Dolgopolov who is all over the place.:oops: 80% 2nd serve won in a match to me indicates a major problem (tanking or physical by opponent). It's pretty clear on this board what is going on
doggie-puppy1.gif

LOL no surface threads after Beijing, etc., but now they all come out after this match.:rolleyes:
Click to expand...

I'm sorry but nothing indicated to me that Nadal was injured. Maybe he was a bit fatigued but injured?
I didn't see it. Remember Federer thrashed Nadal at IW and Miami too! ;)
 
The only flawness of Fed when facing Nadal was his backhand in the past years. And attacking Fed's backhand swing is the core of Nadal's playing tactics when fighting Fed .But the bigger racquet changes everything and helps Fed handle nadal' s forehand at his will.Then here comes the problem for Nadal.When Nadal finally senses that Fed's backhand has become so solid(even out of his imagination) and combative,and not a flawness any more, he is confused and has no idea how to make an appropriate plan. In fact,the only weapon he can depend on is his serve,especially at big points.In the mid-rang even long-rang rallies,Nadal lost many many more points than ever before.This pattern makes Nadal feel anxious and not as confident as before.All these factors above explain why Nadal becomes Fed's pigeon in these recent consecutive 5 matchs.And the trend maybe continues if Nadal fails to figure out how to play "this" Fed who has a flawless backhand.
 
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Backspin1183 said:
It was clear that Nadal needed to stand closer to the baseline to return Federer's serve. Not something he feels comfortable changing for one match in a tournament. His return position worked against everyone else but Federer is a wily old fox with one of the best serves on tour.

Nadal also made some unforced errors even when he had Federer on the run. He needed to play shots like he did against Kyrgios in Beijing final. But Federer probably serves even better than Nick against Nadal and Nadal clearly is the more nervous player in their match-up these days.
Click to expand...

He did stand closer at the start of the match, then moved back when that didn't work
 
The real secret is the half volleying with flat power..Nadal's western grip can't handle the speed of the ball reaching him. Fred's shots don't loop anymore, it is linear. which causes trouble to Nadal. He used to make shots swerve with his smaller frame, works against the tour but not Nadal.
 
slal1984 said:
Those are some good stats....There is just no one like Federer when his game is on. His game truly shines on this surface, he made Nadal look like a noob, that's how good he is.
Click to expand...

Fred on hardcourts is like Nads on clay. Like a pig in mud. They love their surfaces.
 
The secret is that Roger Federer Team has received an email the night before the AO final. It was the right moment with the right content, apparently (and based on Federer's interviews after that match) it worked well for Federer.

Who knows... maybe it is Nadal's turn next time!
 
Meles said:
Pretty obvious Nadal was damaged goods in this last match.:rolleyes: We'll see how damaged. Still considering Basel. A Nadal showing in Basel does make this beating more credible.:oops:

It means that on really fast courts everyone's serve is better with placement becoming more paramount much like grass. Everyone on a good day is a servebot.;) This last match brings up the good ole days of Sampras vs. Agassi at US Open/Wimbledon.
sleepy2.gif
Click to expand...
It's not about the courts. Fed pummelled Nadal even harder at slow and high bouncing Indian Wells. Nadal has to do something about his return as well as Fed's backhand return. I disagree with the VB supposition that Nadal wasn't yet back to his best at IW. That is just denying that he is out of answers for now against Fed and Shanghai has called the bluff on the Emperor's new clothes. Just as Fed made changes to his gameplan to prolong his career, so too Nadal can't obstinately stick to patterns that worked for him in the past.
 
Dolgopolov85 said:
It's not about the courts. Fed pummelled Nadal even harder at slow and high bouncing Indian Wells. Nadal has to do something about his return as well as Fed's backhand return. I disagree with the VB supposition that Nadal wasn't yet back to his best at IW. That is just denying that he is out of answers for now against Fed and Shanghai has called the bluff on the Emperor's new clothes. Just as Fed made changes to his gameplan to prolong his career, so too Nadal can't obstinately stick to patterns that worked for him in the past.
Click to expand...
Honestly you may just be right. Nadal statistically better the 2nd half of season and this is post the clay confidence boost, but frankly it's hard to get around head to head issues. The answer lies somewhere in between your assertion and the Nadal totally damaged goods in Shanghai final; we'll probably find out by WTF at the latest.:cool: ....... Nadal appears to have withdrawn from Basel so he was definitely damaged coming into Shanghai final. This to me says Federer's form is no better than what he displayed against Delpo; encouraging, but not as unbeatable as the Shanghai final made him look.o_O The good news; Nadal won't be a threat again until 2018. Fed fans can breathe easy.:p
 
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