Aslan Karatsev - A Top 10 or 20 Player?

[RaulRamirez]

It's always dangerous to jump on a bandwagon, and in this case, I don't know if there even is one.

"Karate Kid" Karatsev came, seemingly, out of nowhere this year to make the semis of the AO, and after an impressive (if at times, nervous) win versus Rublev today, can win a 500 tourney in Dubai tomorrow versus Harris, another underdog. His rank should vault into the 30s or even the 20s next week.

Of course, he's already 27 y.o., so I don't know what his potential is. I do love his DTL backhand (so smooth, and laserlike) and his forehand and ROS seem like plus shots. He's not a gazelle, but moves well, and is very strong - so he can hit very effective shots from defensive positions and also flick somewhat effortless winners. He even has decent touch on his rare forays to the net.

So, what do you think his potential is, say, in the next 3-5 years? A top-32, top 25, 20, a glimpse of Top 10? Or, just a nice little story for now...

 

[Nadal>>>>>Federer]

One of the cleanest ball-strikers right now after Novak. His game is visually appealing and the way he looks on court/plays the game is unique. There really is no clear comparison to make with him and other players (maybe agassi?). He moves well and doesn't have any clear weaknesses that have been shown so far. Seems to be very focused on court and doesn't show any nerves. Will be interesting to see how his game transitions to grass.

 

[taylor15]

I saw a breakdown of if the rankings didn’t remain frozen that he would be 11 currently

 

[Lleytonstation]

Just another guy who sneaked through in a slam within a weak field. He is riding on confidence right now similar to Tennys. Maybe he rides it out a few years and reaches top 50.

Not like he is beating top guys. No Rublev is not a top guy.

 

[Nadal>>>>>Federer]

Just another guy who sneaked through in a slam within a weak field. He is riding on confidence right now similar to Tennys. Maybe he rides it out a few years and reaches top 50.

Not like he is beating top guys. No Rublev is not a top guy.

he has already reached the top 50 and Rublev has played very well the past 6 months.

 

[Lleytonstation]

he has already reached the top 50 and Rublev has played very well the past 6 months.

Yes but he is not going to do much better. Can he play on grass? Clay? Can he keep the momentum? All things I don't see him doing.

 

[taylor15]

Just another guy who sneaked through in a slam within a weak field. He is riding on confidence right now similar to Tennys. Maybe he rides it out a few years and reaches top 50.

Not like he is beating top guys. No Rublev is not a top guy.

Loses the final and he’s 33, wins and he’s 26. This is with frozen ranking that is keeping Federer, Monfils, etc in the top 20

 

[Lleytonstation]

Loses the final and he’s 33, wins and he’s 26. This is with frozen ranking that is keeping Federer, Monfils, etc in the top 20

Rankings are all jacked up right now for a bunch of reasons and it's early in the season. Let's see where he is at the end of the year, my guess is somewhere in the 35-50 range.

 

[taylor15]

Rankings are all jacked up right now for a bunch of reasons and it's early in the season. Let's see where he is at the end of the year, my guess is somewhere in the 35-50 range.

Agreed that they are all jacked up. I feel for anyone making a good run right now that can’t get the rankings they should

 

[Winners or Errors]

Hasn't the guy been injured on and off his entire professional career? That would explain why now, in the latter half of his 20s, when he is healthy, he is beating guys he should probably have been beating anyway. I guess we'll see if he's just another Mr. Glass.

 

[Lleytonstation]

Hasn't the guy been injured on and off his entire professional career? That would explain why now, in the latter half of his 20s, when he is healthy, he is beating guys he should probably have been beating anyway. I guess we'll see if he's just another Mr. Glass.

But at his age wouldn't he of at least made ones decent run? He has done nothing in his career. Not even a small sign. No ATP wins.

 

[Nadal>>>>>Federer]

Rankings are all jacked up right now for a bunch of reasons and it's early in the season. Let's see where he is at the end of the year, my guess is somewhere in the 35-50 range.

yeah he would be even higher without the jacked up rankings. Basically 80% of his points have come from 3 tournaments this year. It's not like he is holding on to a lot of points from cancelled tournaments. Dude is like 5th in the race to London and has absolutely been playing like it. He will already be higher than your guess just by entering tournaments for the rest of the year.

 

[Lleytonstation]

yeah he would be even higher without the jacked up rankings. Basically 80% of his points have come from 3 tournaments this year. It's not like he is holding on to a lot of points from cancelled tournaments. Dude is like 5th in the race to London and has absolutely been playing like it. He will already be higher than your guess just by entering tournaments for the rest of the year.

Look at the ATP race, it always looks this way early on without masters.

Fucsovics is 7, Bublik is 11, and Harris is 12. These won't stay as they never do.

 

[Nadal>>>>>Federer]

Look at the ATP race, it always looks this way early on without masters.

Fucsovics is 7, Bublik is 11, and Harris is 12. These won't stay as they never do.

fair point but all of those guys will almost always have an improved YE ranking compared to the previous year. Skepticism is fine but Karatsev has played up to his ranking at this point.

 

[Fabresque]

Karatsev just another example of Russian tennis continuing to pull away from USTA’s player development program. See previous examples - Rublev, Medvedev, Khachanov.

 

[RaulRamirez]

Yes but he is not going to do much better. Can he play on grass? Clay? Can he keep the momentum? All things I don't see him doing.

True, that's all unknown at this point. But in an environment where it's not that easy to shoot up, he came in to Dubai at 42 and should hit at least the lower 30s next week.

 

[SinneGOAT]

Yes but he is not going to do much better. Can he play on grass? Clay? Can he keep the momentum? All things I don't see him doing.

He won Hamburg last year but other than that he doesn’t seem like a good player on clay, heck I have barely seen him on clay. Never seen him on grass however, not sure his strokes will work or not on the surface.

 

[RaulRamirez]

Loses the final and he’s 33, wins and he’s 26. This is with frozen ranking that is keeping Federer, Monfils, etc in the top 20

Thanks. I knew it was something like that, but hadn't seen the exact numbers.

 

[taylor15]

Thanks. I knew it was something like that, but hadn't seen the exact numbers.

No problem. I got this from the atp live rankings site.

 

[James P]

Second big tournament of the year starts on Tuesday. Win or lose in Dubai (I think he wins), I'm very interested to see what he does in Miami.

 

[GhostOfNKDM]

25 slams guaranteed. 30 if goes vegan and trains in an empty swimming pool.

 

[aldeayeah]

Top 20 seems about right. Top 10 would require multi surface performances or beating the field consistently in hc

 

[yokied]

Anyone else shift uncomfortably in their chair when the emergence of new players exposes the objective lack of tennis knowledge in a lot of poasters here? And a lot of the nonsense is from veteran fangirls and hype merchants begging for new blood too. No wonder a lot of people leave.

The guy has serious game and is far more legit than most of the current real and ronafied top 30s. Apart from the obvious results that people are somehow sticking their heads in the sand about, he’s easily sitting very close to the top of a lot of key stats this year - groundstroke speeds, returns, winners and god knows what else. Every match, including vs Novak, was on his racquet. Sure, that’s definitely not gonna work on grass and clay .

Where he ends up is based entirely on his mentality and consistency. I have his HC A-game as comfortably top 5, B-game comfortably top 20. He’s only shown the A game in some stretches, like the demolition of Gerasimov and parts of the Schwartzman and Novak AO matches.

What is most impressive is a damn good winning mentality. He has retrieved situations, problem solved and won imperfectly with a rapidly-improving B-game when god mode is off. Which the knowledgeable folks here would know if, you know, they actually watched the tennis.

Bold call but I think he wins Dubai and Miami then we reassess. There’s nobody in Miami that he’s be afraid of. Med, maybe. There will be nerves and respect but I think he wins there too. The weapons are there.

 

[Robert F]

He reminds me of the solid baseliners currently on tour with a little more umph. Thinking of Nishikori, RBA, Millman type. Really solid ground game, clean strokes, hit heavy but not overspun. I don't think he is fast as some of those guys, but the 2 hander and I wonder if he hits a heavier ball overall.

I think if he can maintain consistency from the baseline and keep close to the baseline he'll be able to take out a lot of the guys who stand 10 feet behind the baseline and hit heavy spin.
Will he have the mental confidence to keep that up against the bigger guns?

Current run makes me say top 20. If his mental game stays sharp, I think he can be a top 10. Look at some of the other top talent that falls so easily.

 

[beltsman]

Does he have the biggest FH in the game right now? Who is bigger?

 

[beltsman]

He reminds me of the solid baseliners currently on tour with a little more umph. Thinking of Nishikori, RBA, Millman type. Really solid ground game, clean strokes, hit heavy but not overspun. I don't think he is fast as some of those guys, but the 2 hander and I wonder if he hits a heavier ball overall.

I think if he can maintain consistency from the baseline and keep close to the baseline he'll be able to take out a lot of the guys who stand 10 feet behind the baseline and hit heavy spin.
Will he have the mental confidence to keep that up against the bigger guns?

Current run makes me say top 20. If his mental game stays sharp, I think he can be a top 10. Look at some of the other top talent that falls so easily.

wtf. Nishikori, RBA, MILLMAN? Just a little more oomph? Are we watching the same player? He hits FHs those players can only dream about.

 

[GhostOfNKDM]

Does he have the biggest FH in the game right now? Who is bigger?

Mine is adequate

 

[socallefty]

He is a top 20 player currently in terms of level. What he has going for him is that he is more offensive about hitting the ball early and has a lot of extra juice on his FH compared to most other top 30-50 players. To become top 10, he has to display top-10 level shot tolerance and consistency while preserving the extra pace of his FH and ability to control points by hitting on the rise - he lacks that still. Also, his serve is not a big weapon and his BH return is not top 10 level yet - to stay as a consistent top 10 player for many years, you need to be an above-average server and returner also in addition to being a great baseliner. I also wonder if he will do well on clay and slow hard courts, but I wouldn't be surprised if he does well on grass and during the indoor hard court season in addition to fast hard courts like Cinci, Shanghai and the AO.

He hung tough with Djokovic in many FH rallies at the AO, but lost the bulk of BH rallies and longer rallies where Djokovic moved him to both corners of the court. Djokovic outserved and outreturned him by a large margin also which is why it was a straight-set loss.

 

[norcal]

Wonder how he will do as the favorite against Harris, he was quite nervous trying to close out Rublev. Hope he gets his first title.

Beating Sinner and Rublev back to back at their own game is damn impressive. He looks better than the bottom half of the top 10 right now.

 

[GhostOfNKDM]

Wonder how he will do as the favorite against Harris, he was quite nervous trying to close out Rublev. Hope he gets his first title.

Beating Sinner and Rublev back to back at their own game is damn impressive. He looks better than the bottom half of the top 10 right now.

Harris seemed even more surprised to have won his SF

 

[Robert F]

wtf. Nishikori, RBA, MILLMAN? Just a little more oomph? Are we watching the same player? He hits FHs those players can only dream about.

He definitely hits it bigger and can do so from the baseline with authority. He reminds me of their workman attitude---clean strokes and attack when ready. Not a looper or a guy looking to do fancy shots. Hit solid groundies, work the point and attack.

 

[GhostOfNKDM]

He definitely hits it bigger and can do so from the baseline with authority. He reminds me of their workman attitude---clean strokes and attack when ready. Not a looper or a guy looking to do fancy shots. Hit solid groundies, work the point and attack.

Nalbandian like

 

[tsurismo5]

Possibly the next Kyle Edmund

 

[Dominic & Andrey]

Anyone else shift uncomfortably in their chair when the emergence of new players exposes the objective lack of tennis knowledge in a lot of poasters here? And a lot of the nonsense is from veteran fangirls and hype merchants begging for new blood too. No wonder a lot of people leave.

The guy has serious game and is far more legit than most of the current real and ronafied top 30s. Apart from the obvious results that people are somehow sticking their heads in the sand about, he’s easily sitting very close to the top of a lot of key stats this year - groundstroke speeds, returns, winners and god knows what else. Every match, including vs Novak, was on his racquet. Sure, that’s definitely not gonna work on grass and clay .

Where he ends up is based entirely on his mentality and consistency. I have his HC A-game as comfortably top 5, B-game comfortably top 20. He’s only shown the A game in some stretches, like the demolition of Gerasimov and parts of the Schwartzman and Novak AO matches.

What is most impressive is a damn good winning mentality. He has retrieved situations, problem solved and won imperfectly with a rapidly-improving B-game when god mode is off. Which the knowledgeable folks here would know if, you know, they actually watched the tennis.

Bold call but I think he wins Dubai and Miami then we reassess. There’s nobody in Miami that he’s be afraid of. Med, maybe. There will be nerves and respect but I think he wins there too. The weapons are there.

I agree with most of the things, but do you think as of right now on hard court he is better than Zverev and Tsitsipas ? I want to see him at Miami but I think it will be tougher for him than in Dubai

 

[-NN-]

There is 100% a bandwagon. The Aslan army is growing by the minute.

All aboard. Choo Chooooo.

 

[-NN-]

It's always dangerous to jump on a bandwagon, and in this case, I don't know if there even is one.

"Karate Kid" Karatsev came, seemingly, out of nowhere this year to make the semis of the AO, and after an impressive (if at times, nervous) win versus Rublev today, can win a 500 tourney in Dubai tomorrow versus Harris, another underdog. His rank should vault into the 30s or even the 20s next week.

Of course, he's already 27 y.o., so I don't know what his potential is. I do love his DTL backhand (so smooth, and laserlike) and his forehand and ROS seem like plus shots. He's not a gazelle, but moves well, and is very strong - so he can hit very effective shots from defensive positions and also flick somewhat effortless winners. He even has decent touch on his rare forays to the net.

So, what do you think his potential is, say, in the next 3-5 years? A top-32, top 25, 20, a glimpse of Top 10? Or, just a nice little story for now...

It seems suspicious to suppose someone who erupts at 27 in tennis, who has shown good ball in just a few tournaments, is going to become some mainstay top player.


And yet I think that's exactly what's going to happen, health permitting.


He made Rublev look like a kid. No ordinary tennis player does that. And he hits a MONSTER ball off both wings. You mention his DTL BH, which is glorious, but what about also how he's able to clown opponents in CC BH exchanges, and just rips on them extraordinarly hard. What an immense ballstriking talent he has, no?

That doesn't mean he's gonna beat Harris today though. He did only serve at around 50% in the SF.

Really looking forward to the Dubai Final, and I dunno if you've been watching Harris but he's been playing mighty fine ball.

Still, I assume Aslan is gonna get the job done. If Harris serves as he has been doing though then Karatsev can't afford to really slip up.

 

[junior74]

I know we discussed Karate Kid earlier, @RaulRamirez . I was very impressed by his striking when I saw him playing challengers last year. He seemed to have a game of much higher quality than his ranking. A trait he shared with hundreds of players who never break into top 100. It's incredible to see what can happen with players when they improve their mentality through results. Harris, as well. Super exciting player, who suddenly seems to understand he has the ability to beat anyone.

I always like players with clean games. Karatsev's is super clean. And he has elements of Federer in him: The ability to put different amount of spin on each stroke; not the "modern" groundstroke idea, which is basically the wish to be able to hit the same stroke every time, by being perfectly positioned for it, in order to make no mistakes.

 

[BGod]

Well honestly in the 2016-present era the Top 11-20 group is extremely flimsy. It's not what it use to be. Might as well just look at the Top 32 rankings which for the moment Karatsev fits. As many have mentioned he had injury issues. Reminds me of Mishca Zverev in his career a bit, obviously riding high on momentum now that will likely sputter out come clay.

But listen, if Thomas Johansson can win a Slam and MaValai Washington make a Slam Final, Karatsev has a puncher's chance.

 

[yokied]

Well, @Dominic & Andrey, we’re about to find out, as they say. If Aslan wins Dubai, I accept it is likely that he will have a lapse somewhere in Miami after winning his first title. But if he can just keep his clutch B-game rolling, I like his level to win there too.

IMHO the level he has shown is enough to take care of pretty much everyone except Novak on HC at the moment. So yes I expect him to be going very deep at HC events this year.

 

[wang07]

Everything is possible in the Career Inflation Era™

 

[ewiewp]

Rankings are all jacked up right now for a bunch of reasons and it's early in the season. Let's see where he is at the end of the year, my guess is somewhere in the 35-50 range.

If it's back to 1 year window, he might be ranked higher like 20s or higher?

He is very unlucky. He was side lined w/ injury in 2019 and by the he came back in 2020, covid struck.

He is quite disadvantaged in ranking wise.

 

[Sysyphus]

might be a bit Verdascoesque in the sense that when they are hot they may look like they have really top-tier games, but they aren't really able to sustain it outside of some hot runs. Or at least that's what I figure will be the case with Aslan. Hard to imagine that he'll suddenly turn into some top 10 mainstay, but who knows.

though I see I'm being a bit harsh on Verdasco here. He was sniffing at the edges of the top 10 even before his fabled AO run in 2009 (where he was aged 25), and then spent the next few years ranked around the edge of the top 10. So he had a solid few years there.

 

[mike danny]

Top 20 seems about right. Top 10 would require multi surface performances or beating the field consistently in hc

So, Medvedev basically.

 

[RaulRamirez]

It seems suspicious to suppose someone who erupts at 27 in tennis, who has shown good ball in just a few tournaments, is going to become some mainstay top player.


And yet I think that's exactly what's going to happen, health permitting.


He made Rublev look like a kid. No ordinary tennis player does that. And he hits a MONSTER ball off both wings. You mention his DTL BH, which is glorious, but what about also how he's able to clown opponents in CC BH exchanges, and just rips on them extraordinarly hard. What an immense ballstriking talent he has, no?

That doesn't mean he's gonna beat Harris today though. He did only serve at around 50% in the SF.

Really looking forward to the Dubai Final, and I dunno if you've been watching Harris but he's been playing mighty fine ball.

Still, I assume Aslan is gonna get the job done. If Harris serves as he has been doing though then Karatsev can't afford to really slip up.

I did see (most of) both semis yesterday -- an unexpectedly terrific day of tennis. I could have started a thread on Harris, who's younger, and has the bigger serve, but I'm not ready to even speculate on him yet.

...agreed that Karatsev is extremely solid from both wings and I think his ROS can be even more of a weapon. He may not be able to produce great results this year on clay and at Wimbledon, but my guess is that his game should travel pretty well to all surfaces.

 

[ND-13]

Given Shwartzman, Isner, Fognini are all making a trip to top 10, I would say 6-10 is the ceiling for any (professional) player who picks a tennis racket

 

[AceSalvo]

Top 10 easily with the current level of competition. And Aslan is getting there one way or the other.

 

[Deleted member 771911]

Slam semi, atp 500 title, he's a solid top twenty player. Seems like one of those players who could bandy about from 09-19 in the rankings.

 

[Omega_7000]

Slam semi, atp 500 title, he's a solid top twenty player. Seems like one of those players who could bandy about from 09-19 in the rankings.

He could be top 15 top 10 type player....not sure if he is good enough to contest major titles

 

[BGod]

Top 10 now. I mean Raonic has won 1, ONE ATP 500 title his entire career. Finished YE #3 once.

 

[mike danny]

He should be top 20 or top 15, IMO. But it depends how he does the rest of the year. Hope the doesn't fizzle out.