At what age would Alcaraz beat Sabalenka?

Age when Carlos was able to defeat A. Sabalenka.

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ErnestoVillanuevaCagliate

ErnestoVillanuevaCagliate

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I ve been playing tennis for already 12 years, i even compited in some local tournaments with moderate success, altho i am nowhere near a top athlete, but i can consider myself a decent tennis player.

In my experience i had the oportunitie to hit and play somes games with some professional female players and i got eviscerated, no chance, despite them not being even top WTA Players. I think most of us tend to underrate the female tennis level.

My question is... At what age Carlos would be competitive with Sabalenka. We have to consider both play motivaded, healthy and with 100% effort.

This is my guess after watching Alcaraz for countless hours in all of his years.

At 13 YO and below. He gets demolised. Sabalenka wins 6-0 6-0 0% chance.

At 14 YO. He gets beaten badly, but rallies starts being competitive. 6-1 6-1 Sabalenka. Physical superiority still too big 1% chance of winning

At 15 YO. This is where it gets interesting. Matches are already competitive, but Sabalenka wins 85% of the time, 15% chance of winning

At 16 YO. This is the Sweet Spot, where matches are even. Physical qualities already matched. I would say is a coin toss, 50% of chance of winning for Carlos. Most matches are 3 setters competitive.

At 17 YO. Things start getting bad for Aryna. Now Physical superiority is a factor for Carlos, and he should win around 85% of the matches, like 6-2 6-3

At 18 YO. Aryna Chances become tiny, maybe winning 1 out of 100 encounters. Carlos is more mature, a physical beast and developed a ton of variety. Most matches are like 6-1 6-1.

From 19 YO to present, Arynas chances are in my perspective to win 1 out of 1000 matches, considering injuries, having a really bad day, cramping... we all know everything can happen in tennis. In this case Aryna would struggle to win 1 single game against this version of Carlos. I know am being too harsh on Sabalenka, but i admit she is a phenomenal fantastic player. I only wanted to do this as objective as possible.


What do you guys think? Lets talk about this, because to me is the intereesting way to compare female and male tennis.
 
Alkeey boi will beat her from 13-14 and onwards. Simply because Alcaraz, like Nadal was a prodigy in skills and physicality. He has stories about being too much of a prodigy . He was giving David Ferrer(? I might be misremembering but it was an established spaniard) fits in the practice session they had when he was 14. Ferrer noted how he was able to hit even harder than what he used to in actual matches and the ball kept coming back.
 
ForehandCross said:
Alkeey boi will beat her from 13-14 and onwards. Simply because Alcaraz, like Nadal was a prodigy in skills and physicality. He has stories about being too much of a prodigy . He was giving David Ferrer(? I might be misremembering but it was an established spaniard) fits in the practice session they had when he was 14. Ferrer noted how he was able to hit even harder than what he used to in actual matches and the ball kept coming back.
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I dont think is very realistic to think that Carlos at 13, barely in the puberty could beat 27 yo Sabalenka.

Lets remember that Ferrer was probably retired at that point, and not playing at 100%. I am talking about competitive matches.
 
ErnestoVillanuevaCagliate said:
I dont think is very realistic to think that Carlos at 13, barely in the puberty could beat 27 yo Sabalenka.

Lets remember that Ferrer was probably retired at that point, and not playing at 100%. I am talking about competitive matches.
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We just saw an inferior also-retired unfit Kyrgios jog his way to a match win against Sabalenka though. I'm sure even that Ferrer from 2018 was better than this Kyrgios.
 
FeroBango said:
We just saw an inferior also-retired unfit Kyrgios jog his way to a match win against Sabalenka though. I'm sure even that Ferrer from 2018 was better than this Kyrgios.
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That was a highly competitive match tho. Kyrgios is a formr top and sometimes still play and win ATP matches, he is only 29 too.

I dont think that is enough evidence, and i didnt see nick too out of form tbh, altho he was clearly superior.
 
I think by age 16 Carlos beats Sabalenka 95% of the time. This is when he made his ATP pro debut and was already a competitive player on the men's tour.
 
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13 possibly, 14 is going to be a herculean task based on Ferrer's words and the fact he could already beat challenger players. I'd say beyond 14 it's already impossible for Saba to win beyond circumstantial anomalies.

We're talking about puberty here, so even weeks or months can be significant in shifting the dynamics of play, let alone years.
 
If you look at the top wta players UTR it's close to atp players utr around the rank of ~1000 something like 12.5 i believe. It's a whole different game tbh.

EDIT: Coach Nick from intuitive tennis adressed this after the kyrgios saba match if you're interested.
 
Whenever he was going deep or winning Futures tournaments (15-16). At Challenger level she wouldn't stand a chance.
 
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It’s indirectly related to age. It is directly related to puberty. Within a year after puberty Alcaraz would’ve been able to beat Sabalenka

In 2017, a U-15 boys soccer team from Dallas soundly beat the US women’s national team in a scrimmage.
 
15 year looks quite fine.
Alcaraz at that stage will win against any woman player present or past.
Assuming there is no medical issue .
 
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ErnestoVillanuevaCagliate said:
I ve been playing tennis for already 12 years, i even compited in some local tournaments with moderate success, altho i am nowhere near a top athlete, but i can consider myself a decent tennis player.

In my experience i had the oportunitie to hit and play somes games with some professional female players and i got eviscerated, no chance, despite them not being even top WTA Players. I think most of us tend to underrate the female tennis level.

My question is... At what age Carlos would be competitive with Sabalenka. We have to consider both play motivaded, healthy and with 100% effort.

This is my guess after watching Alcaraz for countless hours in all of his years.

At 13 YO and below. He gets demolised. Sabalenka wins 6-0 6-0 0% chance.

At 14 YO. He gets beaten badly, but rallies starts being competitive. 6-1 6-1 Sabalenka. Physical superiority still too big 1% chance of winning

At 15 YO. This is where it gets interesting. Matches are already competitive, but Sabalenka wins 85% of the time, 15% chance of winning

At 16 YO. This is the Sweet Spot, where matches are even. Physical qualities already matched. I would say is a coin toss, 50% of chance of winning for Carlos. Most matches are 3 setters competitive.

At 17 YO. Things start getting bad for Aryna. Now Physical superiority is a factor for Carlos, and he should win around 85% of the matches, like 6-2 6-3

At 18 YO. Aryna Chances become tiny, maybe winning 1 out of 100 encounters. Carlos is more mature, a physical beast and developed a ton of variety. Most matches are like 6-1 6-1.

From 19 YO to present, Arynas chances are in my perspective to win 1 out of 1000 matches, considering injuries, having a really bad day, cramping... we all know everything can happen in tennis. In this case Aryna would struggle to win 1 single game against this version of Carlos. I know am being too harsh on Sabalenka, but i admit she is a phenomenal fantastic player. I only wanted to do this as objective as possible.


What do you guys think? Lets talk about this, because to me is the intereesting way to compare female and male tennis.
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14 Easy.
 
Bear in mind that Jennifer Capriati made the semi-finals of Roland Garros 1990 at the age of 14 years, 2 months, and 9 days. She got beaten pretty soundly by Seles in the semis, but she beat both the #12 seed (Judith Wiesner) and the #7 seed (Mary-Joe Fernandez, who had been runner-up at that year's Australian Open) en route.

If a girl can make a slam semi and beat top ten players less than 2.5 months past her 14th birthday, it seems likely that a boy could beat the #1 woman prior to his 15th birthday.

(In a minor tournament, Capriati beat Helena Sukova - then world #10 - when she was still 13. She also beat world #5 and reigning Roland Garros champion Arantxa Sanchez-Vicario 6-1 6-1 the week after she turned 14).
 
Gastino said:
If you look at the top wta players UTR it's close to atp players utr around the rank of ~1000 something like 12.5 i believe. It's a whole different game tbh.

EDIT: Coach Nick from intuitive tennis adressed this after the kyrgios saba match if you're interested.
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it really is. I don’t think people who haven’t watched live pro tennis can understand how big the gap is. Someone like Mayo would cook the entire WTA. WTA matches are often wilder rides though so fun in a different way.
 
What interests me more is what would be the oldest age at which a top male player could beat Sabalenka or some other #1 woman.

Could Sampras (who is 54 and a half)? Surely he could - at least if he trained for a bit. (I'm more doubtful about Agassi winning than Sampras, because I think Agassi has chronic back pain, and because I think that Sampras would be better placed to dominate through sheer power off the first ball).

Could Edberg (who recently turned 60)? I think maybe? Probably? But I expect it would be close. I'm less convinced that Becker could beat Sabalenka, even though he's almost two years younger than Edberg, because I don't think he's in such good shape.

Could McEnroe, whose 67th birthday is today? That seems doubtful to me - there's a lot of muscle mass loss among 60-somethings, so I'm not sure he'd have a sufficient strength advantage any longer. But maybe I'm wrong.

Could Connors, who is now 73? That seems very unlikely to me.
 
Since the majority of you guys think that at 13 or 14 he could beat Sabalenka, i am creating a poll to study the results. That would be fascinating to have a time machine and have that match actually played.
 
helterskelter said:
Bear in mind that Jennifer Capriati made the semi-finals of Roland Garros 1990 at the age of 14 years, 2 months, and 9 days. She got beaten pretty soundly by Seles in the semis, but she beat both the #12 seed (Judith Wiesner) and the #7 seed (Mary-Joe Fernandez, who had been runner-up at that year's Australian Open) en route.

If a girl can make a slam semi and beat top ten players less than 2.5 months past her 14th birthday, it seems likely that a boy could beat the #1 woman prior to his 15th birthday.

(In a minor tournament, Capriati beat Helena Sukova - then world #10 - when she was still 13. She also beat world #5 and reigning Roland Garros champion Arantxa Sanchez-Vicario 6-1 6-1 the week after she turned 14).
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Different times, WTA level was less profesionalized, probably difference in levels with the ATP was even higher back then, thats why nowadays we dont see those 14 yo winning in the WTA. Also woman develops early the puberty.
 
helterskelter said:
What interests me more is what would be the oldest age at which a top male player could beat Sabalenka or some other #1 woman.

Could Sampras (who is 54 and a half)? Surely he could - at least if he trained for a bit. (I'm more doubtful about Agassi winning than Sampras, because I think Agassi has chronic back pain, and because I think that Sampras would be better placed to dominate through sheer power off the first ball).

Could Edberg (who recently turned 60)? I think maybe? Probably? But I expect it would be close. I'm less convinced that Becker could beat Sabalenka, even though he's almost two years younger than Edberg, because I don't think he's in such good shape.

Could McEnroe, whose 67th birthday is today? That seems doubtful to me - there's a lot of muscle mass loss among 60-somethings, so I'm not sure he'd have a sufficient strength advantage any longer. But maybe I'm wrong.

Could Connors, who is now 73? That seems very unlikely to me.
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Thats pushing it a little bit too much in my opinion.

We have to keep in mind that the advantage that male have are purely physical, neither Sampras at 54 or Agassi at 56 today are fitter than Sabalenka, by any means.

In my opinion Sabalenka would beat them easily at their current age of course, because she is just simply fitter, and the physical advantage dissapeared.

Same of course with Edberg, and Mcnroe wont be able to win a single game.

My question with John, and this is a very serious one... could he at his PRIME beat Sabalenka? Thats actually interesting, because tennis evolved so much, now the serve and volley strategy dosnt work as well, and his forehand and backhand can be exploited in rallies to someone like Aryna, also ball speed was way slower those days.
 
helterskelter said:
What interests me more is what would be the oldest age at which a top male player could beat Sabalenka or some other #1 woman.

Could Sampras (who is 54 and a half)? Surely he could - at least if he trained for a bit. (I'm more doubtful about Agassi winning than Sampras, because I think Agassi has chronic back pain, and because I think that Sampras would be better placed to dominate through sheer power off the first ball).

Could Edberg (who recently turned 60)? I think maybe? Probably? But I expect it would be close. I'm less convinced that Becker could beat Sabalenka, even though he's almost two years younger than Edberg, because I don't think he's in such good shape.

Could McEnroe, whose 67th birthday is today? That seems doubtful to me - there's a lot of muscle mass loss among 60-somethings, so I'm not sure he'd have a sufficient strength advantage any longer. But maybe I'm wrong.

Could Connors, who is now 73? That seems very unlikely to me.
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If it's Roger or Novak and they keep relatively fit (like keeping up the gluten-free diet and vaxes away lol) I'm willing to bet 60+.
 
ErnestoVillanuevaCagliate said:
Thats pushing it a little bit too much in my opinion.

We have to keep in mind that the advantage that male have are purely physical, neither Sampras at 54 or Agassi at 56 today are fitter than Sabalenka, by any means.

In my opinion Sabalenka would beat them easily at their current age of course, because she is just simply fitter, and the physical advantage dissapeared.

Same of course with Edberg, and Mcnroe wont be able to win a single game.

My question with John, and this is a very serious one... could he at his PRIME beat Sabalenka? Thats actually interesting, because tennis evolved so much, now the serve and volley strategy dosnt work as well, and his forehand and backhand can be exploited in rallies to someone like Aryna, also ball speed was way slower those days.
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I take it you don't accept that Karsten Brasch (sp? destroyed 18 years or so old Williams sisters while drinking beer?
 
ErnestoVillanuevaCagliate said:
How can you be so sure?. Sabalenka is an animal of a player ripping forehands and with a powerful serve. Carlos probably at that age wasnt prepared physically or mentally to hold that pressure we should take that in consideration
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Alcaraz was already knocking at a top 250/300 ranking at 14. The top WTA players are roughly the equivalent of ATP top 500-1000. He's not losing to Sabalenka when hes already competing with ATP pros.
 
ErnestoVillanuevaCagliate said:
Thats pushing it a little bit too much in my opinion.

We have to keep in mind that the advantage that male have are purely physical, neither Sampras at 54 or Agassi at 56 today are fitter than Sabalenka, by any means.

In my opinion Sabalenka would beat them easily at their current age of course, because she is just simply fitter, and the physical advantage dissapeared.

Same of course with Edberg, and Mcnroe wont be able to win a single game.

My question with John, and this is a very serious one... could he at his PRIME beat Sabalenka? Thats actually interesting, because tennis evolved so much, now the serve and volley strategy dosnt work as well, and his forehand and backhand can be exploited in rallies to someone like Aryna, also ball speed was way slower those days.
Click to expand...

Sampras at 54 isn't fitter than Sabalenka, but he is still probably much stronger. I think he'd win if he got in decent enough shape. You might be right that she'd beat Edberg. For a long time, he was said to be in very good shape for his age, but I don't know whether he still is, and by 60 he will have lost a decent amount of muscle mass, though not anywhere near as much as McEnroe.

Yes, McEnroe in his prime would beat Sabalenka easily.
 
tennis_pro said:
Alcaraz was already knocking at a top 250/300 ranking at 14. The top WTA players are roughly the equivalent of ATP top 500-1000. He's not losing to Sabalenka when hes already competing with ATP pros.
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That seems a bit generous to me.

Agreed on Alcaraz. As I mentioned in a previous post, 14-year-old girls have beaten women in the top ten. Alcaraz at 14 wouldn't have lost against a 14-year-old girl.
 
ErnestoVillanuevaCagliate said:
Different times, WTA level was less profesionalized, probably difference in levels with the ATP was even higher back then, thats why nowadays we dont see those 14 yo winning in the WTA. Also woman develops early the puberty.
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It's not the case that a 14-year-old girl is stronger than a 14-year-old boy. It might be true at 10 or 11, if the girl has hit puberty and the boy hasn't. So, whatever a 14-year-old girl can do, the top 14-year-old boy can do more.

In my view, the early 1990s was one of the stronger eras in women's tennis. I don't agree that it wasn't professionalized. It's true that strength matters more now than it did then (in both men's and women's tennis) and that that has made younger players less competitive than they were. Even so, just a few years ago, in 2019, Coco Gauff made round 4 of Wimbledon when she was 15 years and 3 months old, and that was at her weakest slam.
 
helterskelter said:
Sampras at 54 isn't fitter than Sabalenka, but he is still probably much stronger. I think he'd win if he got in decent enough shape. You might be right that she'd beat Edberg. For a long time, he was said to be in very good shape for his age, but I don't know whether he still is, and by 60 he will have lost a decent amount of muscle mass, though not anywhere near as much as McEnroe.

Yes, McEnroe in his prime would beat Sabalenka easily.
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Strenght isnt that important in Tennis. Devon Larrat is way stronger than Sabalenka and he would get destroyed.

Advantages come from speed movement reaction reflexes and from now Sabalenka is better at that than Pete.

His only hope would be to hit a lot of serves and win in a tiebreak but i still think Aryna would soffocate him and he is gassed.

So i am curious. How is Mcenroe even on his prime beating Sabalenka?.

Apart from his better serve and better volley other shots are better from Aryna. And physical advantage isnt there.

I mean i am not sure. But if we pick peak John vs for example peak Swiatek on Rolland Garros i am not sure at all who wins. Tennis evolved inmensively that Sinner would double bagel John every time they played. Too much speed.

Btw the people who voted 10 yo are probably trolling haha
 
tennis_pro said:
Alcaraz was already knocking at a top 250/300 ranking at 14. The top WTA players are roughly the equivalent of ATP top 500-1000. He's not losing to Sabalenka when hes already competing with ATP pros.
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I dont think Carlos was competing with any top 250 in his 14s. Where is that information ?. I think his challengurr debut was at 16 vs Jannik. You can see the match on yt.
 
Jav said:
If it's Roger or Novak and they keep relatively fit (like keeping up the gluten-free diet and vaxes away lol) I'm willing to bet 60+.
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Lets not forget that in 22 years tennis would have evolved significantly. Wta players get much better and Nole and Roger way way weaker.

So i wont bet on that.

Can current Roger beat Swiatek on clay if he prepares?. Yes i think in less than 2 months prep even at 45. But not at 60
 
ErnestoVillanuevaCagliate said:
What do you guys think? Lets talk about this, because to me is the intereesting way to compare female and male tennis.
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Many 14's have gone through Kzoo and done well. They have practiced with and done well against (in practice matches) Kzoo College, Western Michigan U players. Occassionally a few Michigan State or U of M players have accompanied their coaches and in their recruiting efforts have had their guys hit with noted 14's who are able to stay in rallies with those top D1 college players for the most part.
 
ErnestoVillanuevaCagliate said:
Strenght isnt that important in Tennis. Devon Larrat is way stronger than Sabalenka and he would get destroyed.

Advantages come from speed movement reaction reflexes and from now Sabalenka is better at that than Pete.

His only hope would be to hit a lot of serves and win in a tiebreak but i still think Aryna would soffocate him and he is gassed.

So i am curious. How is Mcenroe even on his prime beating Sabalenka?.

Apart from his better serve and better volley other shots are better from Aryna. And physical advantage isnt there.

I mean i am not sure. But if we pick peak John vs for example peak Swiatek on Rolland Garros i am not sure at all who wins. Tennis evolved inmensively that Sinner would double bagel John every time they played. Too much speed.

Btw the people who voted 10 yo are probably trolling haha
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Strength is very important in tennis. It's not all there is to it, but if two players are in the same ballpark in technique, strength matters as much as speed, movement, etc.

McEnroe in his prime did have a physical advantage over Sabalenka. He was much stronger and had quicker reflexes, etc. Tennis hasn't evolved all that much. McEnroe would be more likely to beat a top male player of today than to lose to Sabalenka.
 
FeroBango said:
David Ferrer said a 14 to Carlos ran him very close in a match going on to say he let David win in a breaker.
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Yeah I recently watched an interview where Ferrer tells that story. He said at that time he was top 10 in the world and needed someone to train with. So he ran into Ferrero and JC told him "hey I have this 14yo who it's very good, you should hit with him". David was like "You shure? Don't make me waste my time". JC insisted. So David recalls when he finally started hitting with Carlos he began pressing more and more with heavy rallies and the ball kept coming back with even more pace. So to finish training they played a TB, according to David's words Carlos was in position to win it but instead he let himself lose to not disrespect David.
 
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