At what age would Alcaraz beat Sabalenka?

Age when Carlos was able to defeat A. Sabalenka.

  • Total voters
    45
ErnestoVillanuevaCagliate said:
I dont think Carlos was competing with any top 250 in his 14s. Where is that information ?. I think his challengurr debut was at 16 vs Jannik. You can see the match on yt.
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"In February 2018, aged 14, Alcaraz played his first professional tennis event as a qualifier at the Spain F5 ITF Futures in Murcia. He knocked out second seed and world No. 292 Federico Gaio in the first round, and proceeded to reach the quarterfinals."

He beat a top 300 player at 14, so at 14 he beats Sabalenka and fairly comfortably. At 13 hed have a shot.
 
ErnestoVillanuevaCagliate said:
Lets not forget that in 22 years tennis would have evolved significantly. Wta players get much better and Nole and Roger way way weaker.

So i wont bet on that.

Can current Roger beat Swiatek on clay if he prepares?. Yes i think in less than 2 months prep even at 45. But not at 60
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Well I made it about Sabalenka vs future old Nole and Roger who are much closer in age to her irl than, say, McEnroe. Otherwise we’re comparing different eras too

My calculus was something the likes of fit 60yo Fedovic > 13-14yo child prodigy > #1 WTA

This is not to disrespect women tennis. But it’s the topic here
 
From wiki:
In February 2018, aged 14, Alcaraz played his first professional tennis event as a qualifier at the Spain F5 ITF Futures in Murcia. He knocked out second seed and world No. 292 Federico Gaio in the first round, and proceeded to reach the quarterfinals. He collected his first two ATP points from this tournament, and entered the rankings as world No. 1414 on 26 February 2018.

In April 2019, at the age of 15, Alcaraz made his Challenger debut at the JC Ferrero Challenger in Villena, after receiving an invitation. He won his first round match against a 17-year old Jannik Sinner, who was on a sixteen-match winning streak.With this victory, Alcaraz became the first player born in 2003 to win a Challenger match. He was defeated in three sets by eighth seed Lukáš Rosol in the second round. One week later at the Murcia Open, he defeated fifth seed and world No. 140 Pedro Martínez in the second round, becoming the first Spanish player since Rafael Nadal to beat a top-200 opponent at age 15. Alcaraz went on to win four Challenger titles, three of them before the age of 18. He was the first player born in 2003 to reach a Challenger title match.

Safe to say around 14-15 would be virtually guaranteed.
 
ErnestoVillanuevaCagliate said:
I dont think is very realistic to think that Carlos at 13, barely in the puberty could beat 27 yo Sabalenka.

Lets remember that Ferrer was probably retired at that point, and not playing at 100%. I am talking about competitive matches.
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Remember what Karsten Brash (?) did to the Williams sisters. The gap isn’t in the hitting, Serena said the biggest issue for her was that her shots were no longer winners when she hit them against a man.

So if Ferrer is remarking that he’s hitting harder than his match pace and that 14yo Carlos was getting those balls back, that’s how he would beat a woman. Not by thundering the ball by her, but by reaching basically every one of her shots
 
Before reading any of the comments including yours OP, I would have guessed by age 16, Alcaraz would be winning just about every single time. So the toss up point might be 14 or 15? But I really have no idea because I did not even know who he was until he was 18? The mental aspect of the game is huge.

I will say current Sablenka is really killing it on the WTA. I did not watch the Kyrios circus match. She would have length over a young teenager Carlitos with her serve. Rest of her game is very solid. Actually, her mental game could improve a lot as well as her emotions...
 
objection_ said:
From wiki:
In February 2018, aged 14, Alcaraz played his first professional tennis event as a qualifier at the Spain F5 ITF Futures in Murcia. He knocked out second seed and world No. 292 Federico Gaio in the first round, and proceeded to reach the quarterfinals. He collected his first two ATP points from this tournament, and entered the rankings as world No. 1414 on 26 February 2018.

In April 2019, at the age of 15, Alcaraz made his Challenger debut at the JC Ferrero Challenger in Villena, after receiving an invitation. He won his first round match against a 17-year old Jannik Sinner, who was on a sixteen-match winning streak.With this victory, Alcaraz became the first player born in 2003 to win a Challenger match. He was defeated in three sets by eighth seed Lukáš Rosol in the second round. One week later at the Murcia Open, he defeated fifth seed and world No. 140 Pedro Martínez in the second round, becoming the first Spanish player since Rafael Nadal to beat a top-200 opponent at age 15. Alcaraz went on to win four Challenger titles, three of them before the age of 18. He was the first player born in 2003 to reach a Challenger title match.

Safe to say around 14-15 would be virtually guaranteed.
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Yup

And LMAO at Carlos getting Sinner from literally jump street. Not much has changed

@MichaelNadal
 
Vincent-C said:
Oh, dear.. 67 year-old Mac would d. Sabalenka right now. Maybe our new expert can arrange the match..

New User™ w/ stupid, pointless hypotheticals calls TTW regulars "trolls".

rich..
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I am not saying he wouldnt i am asking how could that be possible ?. And i would certanly bet a lot of money on Aryna.

MC Will have huge physical disadvantages to Sabalenka at his age plus while ralling Sabalenka his strlnger and faster and has more stamina and IS OFC faster than 67 yo Mac. So how would he beat her ?. Dont see ir. John in his prime dosnt have a physical advantage since tennis was less physiaue those days. He relied on serve and volley and would win most of his service games altho in the retirn he Will strugglw and also in the rallies.

I am not making this emocional. Just trying to answer this as objetive as posible. I think Sinner would win 6-0 6-0 to prime John due to tennis Evolution too. Thats why i give Aryna a chance
 
Jav said:
Well I made it about Sabalenka vs future old Nole and Roger who are much closer in age to her irl than, say, McEnroe. Otherwise we’re comparing different eras too

My calculus was something the likes of fit 60yo Fedovic > 13-14yo child prodigy > #1 WTA

This is not to disrespect women tennis. But it’s the topic here
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Cant agree. If we say that 14 yo Alcaraz was at a 250 top level how on earth would 60 yo Federer better than that.

Roger at literally his last tour year was struggling to beat any players. Add to that 20 years. Not happening.
Tennis IS extremely fast and physical this days
 
ErnestoVillanuevaCagliate said:
Cant agree. If we say that 14 yo Alcaraz was at a 250 top level how on earth would 60 yo Federer better than that.

Roger at literally his last tour year was struggling to beat any players. Add to that 20 years. Not happening.
Tennis IS extremely fast and physical this days
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Fed reached the Wimbledon QF in his very last singles tournament and won the first 4 rounds easily too. Also he has all the time in the world to get better with his health now.

Depends on what we're talking about. If it's for one set? Sure? BO3? Would probably have to work on his fitness a bit. Longer match or a full tournament? No chance at this point. We're talking now when he's around 45 btw, at 60 no freaking way.
 
ErnestoVillanuevaCagliate said:
Cant agree. If we say that 14 yo Alcaraz was at a 250 top level how on earth would 60 yo Federer better than that.

Roger at literally his last tour year was struggling to beat any players. Add to that 20 years. Not happening.
Tennis IS extremely fast and physical this days
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tennis_pro said:
Fed reached the Wimbledon QF in his very last singles tournament and won the first 4 rounds easily too. Also he has all the time in the world to get better with his health now.

Depends on what we're talking about. If it's for one set? Sure? BO3? Would probably have to work on his fitness a bit. Longer match or a full tournament? No chance at this point. We're talking now when he's around 45 btw, at 60 no freaking way.
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Sure, 60 no way. But against ATP.

I’m talking 13yo Raz here. As much as a great child prodigy he was - honestly impressed by his W vs some pros at (late) 14 and 15 as shared by @objection_, didn’t know that.

But a fit Roger, who had kept his diet and most of the training regime. If he took the racket at 60 (which is sad to say but it’s 15 years from now, Raz will probably still be active) I think he could still prevail by sheer serve + ROS dynamic against a 13yo teen. Who, at that age becomes terribly dangerous to a female player, by other facets of the game.

Maybe I stretched it a bit, Idk. I’m no expert on hypotheticals. If it was 55yo Roger - 15yo Raz (what I voted btw) would it change much in terms of “betting” or “shame” (which again is not my intention, we’re just talking physical biology there)?
 
tennis_pro said:
Fed reached the Wimbledon QF in his very last singles tournament and won the first 4 rounds easily too. Also he has all the time in the world to get better with his health now.

Depends on what we're talking about. If it's for one set? Sure? BO3? Would probably have to work on his fitness a bit. Longer match or a full tournament? No chance at this point. We're talking now when he's around 45 btw, at 60 no freaking way.
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Yeah at 45 if he prepares for 3 months he can beat Sabalenka. Certanly not at 60 like some people siggest.
Dont underevaluate how insanely good she playa
 
Jav said:
Sure, 60 no way. But against ATP.

I’m talking 13yo Raz here. As much as a great child prodigy he was - honestly impressed by his W vs some pros at (late) 14 and 15 as shared by @objection_, didn’t know that.

But a fit Roger, who had kept his diet and most of the training regime. If he took the racket at 60 (which is sad to say but it’s 15 years from now, Raz will probably still be active) I think he could still prevail by sheer serve + ROS dynamic against a 13yo teen. Who, at that age becomes terribly dangerous to a female player, by other facets of the game.

Maybe I stretched it a bit, Idk. I’m no expert on hypotheticals. If it was 55yo Roger - 15yo Raz (what I voted btw) would it change much in terms of “betting” or “shame” (which again is not my intention, we’re just talking physical biology there)?
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The question here would be WHO is farthest from his physical peak a 60 yo Roger or a 14 Yo Alcaraz.
I think Roger IS way further thats why i think young Raz would prevail.

The important thing here IS the physical abilities at those ages and at being a woman
 
ErnestoVillanuevaCagliate said:
The question here would be WHO is farthest from his physical peak a 60 yo Roger or a 14 Yo Alcaraz.
I think Roger IS way further thats why i think young Raz would prevail.

The important thing here IS the physical abilities at those ages and at being a woman
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14yo may not even be at 95% of your peak adult's height just yet. In Carlos case that would be around 1'73m or less. And body mass not even 80%. Most of that difference being bones and muscles. Cardio maybe similar, relative to size. Even if 60yo Roger and Novak were as physically declined cause stamina (they definitely don't lose that much height or even muscles) they'd still be able to serve, and possibly even return better. That's not only because height but technique too. A 14yo is still adapting and underdeveloped in that regard. Whether that would be enough Idk, but it would serve Fedalovic well.
 
I've watched several practice sessions between Serena Williams and Saša Bajin, a guy who was outside of top 1000 and who never scored a single win on Tour, and it was quite obvious he would beat her (probably 6-3 6-2 or with a similar score) in a real match (the movement being the main reason). Alcaraz, who was already beating guys whose rankings was way above Bajin's, could only do better at the age of 14, much better. He would beat her all the time IMO.
 
Any teenager playing futures (16yo) beats averge WTA. Sabalenka is not the average WTA, but Carlos is not the average teenager playing ITFs at 16 either.

Also, seen what happened in the match with Kyrgios where he was playing at 30% intensity and -9% of court area, I say Carlos at 14 with a 65% winning chance for him.
 
Jav said:
14yo may not even be at 95% of your peak adult's height just yet. In Carlos case that would be around 1'73m or less. And body mass not even 80%. Most of that difference being bones and muscles. Cardio maybe similar, relative to size. Even if 60yo Roger and Novak were as physically declined cause stamina (they definitely don't lose that much height or even muscles) they'd still be able to serve, and possibly even return better. That's not only because height but technique too. A 14yo is still adapting and underdeveloped in that regard. Whether that would be enough Idk, but it would serve Fedalovic well.
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Here i found a nice video of Carlos playing at 14 YO.


From this video is quite obvious at least to me, that Aryna would be a massive favourite in this age. No height, no muscles, and serving from 110 kmh to 150 kmh.

No idea how Carlos would have a chance at 14 tbh looking at this video.
 
ErnestoVillanuevaCagliate said:
Here i found a nice video of Carlos playing at 14 YO.


From this video is quite obvious at least to me, that Aryna would be a massive favourite in this age. No height, no muscles, and serving from 110 kmh to 150 kmh.

No idea how Carlos would have a chance at 14 tbh looking at this video.
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He doesn't have the height nor muscles (compared to Challengers or ATP Tour). Raz in particular had ITF level already by 14 in that game, he was that good. But testosterone levels and fast-twitch muscle fibers are probably high enough. Also body fat index (I mean you would never guess Sinner's pace of ball by his body build at all; this is the same). See these BHs pace at 03:00 or court coverage at 01:02. Women just lack that.
 
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ErnestoVillanuevaCagliate said:
Here i found a nice video of Carlos playing at 14 YO.


From this video is quite obvious at least to me, that Aryna would be a massive favourite in this age. No height, no muscles, and serving from 110 kmh to 150 kmh.

No idea how Carlos would have a chance at 14 tbh looking at this video.
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I love the faint and half-assed claps. Reminds me of my school talent show.
 



Here we have another interesting piece of evidence, playing at 14 yo and 2 months, and tbh i am starting to think that even at this age, he would have some chances vs Aryna.

Maybe they should organize some matches like the Battle of The Sexes, between some amazing 14 yo prodigy and Sabalenka, or vs someone like Pete Sampras vs Aryna, to promote WTA Tennis and see real competitive matches between male and female players.
 
The original battle of the sexes was like you describe, as it was 55-year-old Bobby Riggs (who won both three pro slams and three amateur slams between 1939 and 1949) versus first Margaret Court and then Billie Jean King. Riggs beat Court but lost to King.

It's one reason I'm pretty sure that now 54-year-old Sampras could also beat Sabalenka. (Note that Sampras's stature in men's tennis is greater than that of Riggs, whereas Sabalenka's is not comparable to Court or King, given that on her 28th birthday in May she will have four slam titles. If she achieves the sort of longevity of Djokovic or Serena Williams, perhaps she will one day rival King, though Court is surely out of reach).

I do think it's a much more open question whether 60-year-old Edberg could beat Sabalenka, and I suspect that now 67-year-old (as of yesterday) McEnroe could not do so. Men at 54 still have a big strength advantage over 27-year-old women, but by 67 much of that has gone.

It'd be interesting to see 54-year-old Sampras versus 14-and-2-months old Alcaraz. In a one-set match, I think the 54-year-old should win. In a best-of-five, they might well not last. Best of three might be fairest, as a middle ground between prioritizing the first-strike ability of the 54-year-old and the stamina of the 14-year-old.

I'm confident that 44-year-old Federer could still beat any 14-year-old boy (even Alcaraz) pretty easily if he wanted to.
 
I would love to see an actual clash between Lleyton Hewitt (who turns 45 next week) and Cruz Hewitt (who turned 17 in December).

I suppose that by now Cruz would probably win. Even a year ago, I'm pretty sure Lleyton would have won. A boy of 16 and 2 months is still not going to be strong enough to contain the power of an adult man, and a man of 43/44 has not lost much muscle mass at all.

But it is also important to remember that people age at different rates, at both ends of the age spectrum. What Alcaraz could do at 14, most boys of 14 could not do, because he was much stronger than most boys his age. The same was true of Nadal. That's why they are the only teen slam champions in men's singles since Sampras in 1990. Nowadays, the physical attributes of your regularly developing teen (speed, quick reflexes, ability to change direction on a dime) are not going to get you to a slam title - to win a slam as a teen, you have to be precociously mature in terms of muscular development and strength. Thus, Boris Becker might have been able to win a slam as a teen were he the age of Nadal or Alcaraz, but Mats Wilander or Michael Chang would not have been able to do so. Similarly, some middle-aged men maintain fitness and strength much better than do others. That's why I'm not 100% sure it would be impossible for 60-year-old Stefan Edberg to play Sabalenka competitively but I do doubt that 58-year-old Boris Becker could do so.

I wonder to what extent there's a strong positive correlation between maturing early and aging early. Nadal matured much quicker than either Federer or Djokovic, and while all three last won a slam aged 36, there's no question that Nadal overall didn't quite have the same longevity as either Federer or Djokovic. Similarly, Alcaraz matured much more quickly than Sinner. I wonder to what extent that gives us good grounds to expect Sinner to have the superior longevity. I do believe that Sinner will have slightly better longevity than Alcaraz and thus that they will decline at around the same time (rather than Sinner doing so 18 months-two years earlier), but that's more because I think Sinner's game looks to be one that is more reliant on technique than on stamina - Sinner's stamina is already suspect - than because Sinner matured later.
 
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helterskelter said:
McEnroe in his prime did have a physical advantage over Sabalenka. He was much stronger and had quicker reflexes, etc. Tennis hasn't evolved all that much. McEnroe would be more likely to beat a top male player of today than to lose to Sabalenka.
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Wat?
 
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