ATP 1000 Cincinnati Open 2025 Final - Jannik Sinner [1] vs. Carlos Alcaraz [2]

Winner?…

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Third Serve

Third Serve

Talk Tennis Guru
First tournament either player has entered since their Wimbledon showdown and now they’re back in the final.

Sinner’s looking to defend his 2024 title while Alcaraz hopes to win his first Cincinnati Open.

Who you got?

Also it’s a Monday final because why not?
 
Sinner in 2. Just get your serve over 60% and we know who's winning the match. Don't make it close Sinner, you're 24 now
 
Alcaraz is not fully there yet. Sinner will capitalize on his mental lagoons. Sinner in 2.
 
Third Serve said:
Alcaraz has reached at least the final in every tournament he’s entered since Monte-Carlo, seven straight. For Sinner that number would be ten if not for the loss to Bublik in Halle.
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Yes, I guess for Sinner, if you go by big titles, Sinner last failed to make the final back in Canada last year.
 
This is really a testament to how accurate the rankings are. Zverev gave it a good try and he's clearly the best of the rest but just isn't on Sinner/Alcaraz's level. He's the new gatekeeper. We desperately need a new young talent because Shelton and Draper are not touching them either. The next few years of big tournament winners are going to be very very top heavy.

With all that said though, Sinner in 2.
 
Post-Wimbledon, through the semifinals of Cincinnati, Alcaraz has reduced Sinner's lead in the ATP rankings by 1,200 points. Yes, you read that right: Alcaraz has gained on Sinner by 1200 points. If Alcaraz wins the Cincy final, his net gain will increase to whopping 1,550 points. If Sinner wins the final, Alcaraz's net gain will drop to 850 points -- which is still a very healthy move on his part.

The key principle to keep in mind as this part of the season moves along is that Alcaraz can gain on Sinner, and even pass Sinner, without beating Sinner.
 
I'll go with the person who didn't need 3 sets to beat MUGlev this tournament.

If only there was real competition, 2006 Federer or 2011 Djokovic would go undefeated, losing maybe 2 sets MAX ALL YEAR with this tour lineup. ROFLMAO
 
There aren't many times that you have to wait this long to get a opening line on a match. Oddsmakers have no idea how they're going to handicapped this lol. My guess is something like sinner at -165 to start.

as far as unpredictability and how neither player ever runs away with any match, this is about as good a rivalry as their husband, which is completely independent of surface.
 
I have some confidence given the conspicuous lack of a certain someone in the Alcaraz box this week.

However, Z's level was so poor, and the Rublev much such a diasaster, that it's hard to say Carlos is playing well coming into the match. At the very least, I hope he remembers Cincy 23 and makes a statement here that the USO is not just a foregone conclusion.
 
I'm sure both guys want this a lot- but this is really about positioning for USO, imo.
Not a terribly original thought, I know. ;)
 
Kralingen said:
I have some confidence given the conspicuous lack of a certain someone in the Alcaraz box this week.

However, Z's level was so poor, and the Rublev much such a diasaster, that it's hard to say Carlos is playing well coming into the match. At the very least, I hope he remembers Cincy 23 and makes a statement here that the USO is not just a foregone conclusion.
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Good job by Djok here in '23! Real good job; he toughed that one out.
 
Devin said:
I'll go with the person who didn't need 3 sets to beat MUGlev this tournament.

If only there was real competition, 2006 Federer or 2011 Djokovic would go undefeated, losing maybe 2 sets MAX ALL YEAR with this tour lineup. ROFLMAO
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Two ATg playing each others in final is not competition , okay? Care to tell me what ATG 2006 Fed played in cinci?
 
Last edited:
Kralingen said:
I have some confidence given the conspicuous lack of a certain someone in the Alcaraz box this week.

However, Z's level was so poor, and the Rublev much such a diasaster, that it's hard to say Carlos is playing well coming into the match. At the very least, I hope he remembers Cincy 23 and makes a statement here that the USO is not just a foregone conclusion.
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Well JCF should be given full credit ,they have been working together post Wimbledon to sort out Hc game.
 
Vincent-C said:
Too bad Blake was so prone to brain-farts (I'm being nice, here).

Edit: I was thinking of '06 YEC, but the point stands imo.
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Man I don’t wanna start it again but people downplaying Sinner is getting out of hand , i mean in what world playing an ATG who has one slam more than you is weaker than playing no ATG?
 
dking68 said:
He needs to do it. He’s 24 and is playing well. Why should he not win? After all he was embarrassed in front of his home crowd in Italy. He needs the win.
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I agree that Sinner needs the win- but his demise was predicted by many after that (cliffhanger) French loss.
Not by me, though. ;)
 
Devin said:
I'll go with the person who didn't need 3 sets to beat MUGlev this tournament.

If only there was real competition, 2006 Federer or 2011 Djokovic would go undefeated, losing maybe 2 sets MAX ALL YEAR with this tour lineup. ROFLMAO
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Ironically 2006 Fed and 2011 Djokovic didnt win Cincinati.
Fed was too tired after winning Canada (6 matches in 1 week) and lost Cincy early. After which byes for top seeds started.

Djokovic tanked the 2011 final (he actually retired) as he had a little niggle in wrists.
 
Sinner very much needs the win if he doesn't want to lose the #1 ranking any time before those 4 spring Masters he missed due to his ban will be played again. He needs around 3000 more points than Alcaraz until after the next Australian Open.

I think he gets the win tomorrow, but as always between them it won't be a total blowout I guess.
 
Sinner is definitely the favorite to win, being the better HC player by a considerable margin, with Alcaraz only winning Rotterdam this season when the Sinner blackhole isn't around to suck up the HC titles. Undoubtedly, however, Alcaraz has much more room to improve than Sinner does and could close the HC gap I believe as early as 2026.
 
Sinner is the heavy favourite here. My pick is Sinner in 3, but it could be Alcaraz in 3 as well.
The likelihood of outcomes imo -
Sinner in 3 > Alcaraz in 3 > Sinner in 2 > Alcaraz in 2
Albeit both players this week have barely played out of 3rd gear.
 
Rafa4LifeEver said:
Sinner is the heavy favourite here. My pick is Sinner in 3, but it could be Alcaraz in 3 as well.
The likelihood of outcomes imo -
Sinner in 3 > Alcaraz in 3 > Sinner in 2 > Alcaraz in 2
Albeit both players this week have barely played out of 3rd gear.
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I would say Sinner in 2 > Sinner in 3 > Alcaraz in 3 > Alcaraz in 2
 
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