ATP Finals 2023: Green Group scenarios going into the final day

Who gets to the SF?

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aldeayeah

aldeayeah

G.O.A.T.
The numbers for the green group depending on how the last day plays out:

Result (sets won)Sinner 2 - Rune 0Sinner 2 - Rune 1Rune 2 - Sinner 1Rune 2 - Sinner 0
Djokovic 2 - Hurkacz 01 Sinner
2 Djokovic		1 Sinner
2 Djokovic		Triple tie at 5-3 sets won
Djokovic guaranteed to qualify
Either Sinner or Rune qualifies
(see game win ratio explanation below)		1 Rune
2 Djokovic
Djokovic 2 - Hurkacz 11 Sinner
2 Djokovic		1 Sinner
2 Djokovic		1 Rune
2 Sinner		1 Rune
2 Sinner
Hurkacz 2 - Djokovic 11 Sinner
2 Djokovic		1 Sinner
2 Djokovic		1 Rune
2 Sinner		1 Rune
2 Sinner
Hurkacz 2 - Djokovic 01 Sinner
2 Djokovic		1 Sinner
2 Djokovic		1 Rune
2 Sinner		1 Rune
2 Sinner

(Game win ratio going into the last day: Sinner +6, Djokovic +1, Rune -3.
In this scenario, Djokovic would end up with at least +3 since he would have to beat Hurkacz 2-0
That means Djokovic is guaranteed to end up second at worst, since no result can have both Sinner and Rune at +3 or better)

(NOTE: There's a corner case that involves Hurkacz retiring, where Djokovic's game win would stay at +1, and so Djokovic might get eliminated if Rune beats Sinner 2-1 by exactly 4 games, depending on the total # of games played by each player. Now I'm no betting man, but this seems highly unlikely.)

Djokovic - Hurkacz will be playing first. Djokovic has to win 2-0 to keep Sinner honest, otherwise Jannik can just tank his match and qualify while kicking out Novak.

All three players in contention depend on themselves and are guaranteed to get to the SF in case they win 2-0.
 
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aldeayeah said:
The numbers for the green group going into the last day:

Result (sets won)Sinner 2 - Rune 0Sinner 2 - Rune 1Rune 2 - Sinner 1Rune 2 - Sinner 0
Djokovic 2 - Hurkacz 01 Sinner
2 Djokovic		1 Sinner
2 Djokovic		Triple tie at 5-3 sets won
Djokovic guaranteed to qualify
Either Sinner or Rune qualifies
(see game win ratio explanation below)		1 Rune
2 Djokovic
Djokovic 2 - Hurkacz 11 Sinner
2 Djokovic		1 Sinner
2 Djokovic		1 Rune
2 Sinner		1 Rune
2 Sinner
Hurkacz 2 - Djokovic 11 Sinner
2 Djokovic		1 Sinner
2 Djokovic		1 Rune
2 Sinner		1 Rune
2 Sinner
Hurkacz 2 - Djokovic 01 Sinner
2 Djokovic		1 Sinner
2 Djokovic		1 Rune
2 Sinner		1 Rune
2 Sinner

(Game win ratio going into the last day: Sinner +6, Djokovic +1, Rune -3.
In this scenario, Djokovic would end up with at least +3 since he would have to beat Hurkacz 2-0
That means Djokovic is guaranteed to end up second at worst, since no result can have both Sinner and Rune at +3 or better)

Djokovic - Hurkacz will be playing first. Djokovic has to win 2-0 to keep Sinner honest, otherwise Jannik can just tank his match and qualify while kicking out Novak.

All three players in contention depend on themselves and are guaranteed to get to the SF in case they win 2-0.
Click to expand...
Thank you for the effort, mate.
 
aldeayeah said:
The numbers for the green group going into the last day:

Result (sets won)Sinner 2 - Rune 0Sinner 2 - Rune 1Rune 2 - Sinner 1Rune 2 - Sinner 0
Djokovic 2 - Hurkacz 01 Sinner
2 Djokovic		1 Sinner
2 Djokovic		Triple tie at 5-3 sets won
Djokovic guaranteed to qualify
Either Sinner or Rune qualifies
(see game win ratio explanation below)		1 Rune
2 Djokovic
Djokovic 2 - Hurkacz 11 Sinner
2 Djokovic		1 Sinner
2 Djokovic		1 Rune
2 Sinner		1 Rune
2 Sinner
Hurkacz 2 - Djokovic 11 Sinner
2 Djokovic		1 Sinner
2 Djokovic		1 Rune
2 Sinner		1 Rune
2 Sinner
Hurkacz 2 - Djokovic 01 Sinner
2 Djokovic		1 Sinner
2 Djokovic		1 Rune
2 Sinner		1 Rune
2 Sinner

(Game win ratio going into the last day: Sinner +6, Djokovic +1, Rune -3.
In this scenario, Djokovic would end up with at least +3 since he would have to beat Hurkacz 2-0
That means Djokovic is guaranteed to end up second at worst, since no result can have both Sinner and Rune at +3 or better)

Djokovic - Hurkacz will be playing first. Djokovic has to win 2-0 to keep Sinner honest, otherwise Jannik can just tank his match and qualify while kicking out Novak.

All three players in contention depend on themselves and are guaranteed to get to the SF in case they win 2-0.
Click to expand...
Thank you very much for the effort, pal.
 
I think hurkacz will at least get a set off Novak and could win. Therefore, if Rune beats Sinner in 3 then Novak is toast.

I see Sinner and Rune going through.
 
aldeayeah said:
The numbers for the green group depending on how the last day plays out:

Result (sets won)Sinner 2 - Rune 0Sinner 2 - Rune 1Rune 2 - Sinner 1Rune 2 - Sinner 0
Djokovic 2 - Hurkacz 01 Sinner
2 Djokovic		1 Sinner
2 Djokovic		Triple tie at 5-3 sets won
Djokovic guaranteed to qualify
Either Sinner or Rune qualifies
(see game win ratio explanation below)		1 Rune
2 Djokovic
Djokovic 2 - Hurkacz 11 Sinner
2 Djokovic		1 Sinner
2 Djokovic		1 Rune
2 Sinner		1 Rune
2 Sinner
Hurkacz 2 - Djokovic 11 Sinner
2 Djokovic		1 Sinner
2 Djokovic		1 Rune
2 Sinner		1 Rune
2 Sinner
Hurkacz 2 - Djokovic 01 Sinner
2 Djokovic		1 Sinner
2 Djokovic		1 Rune
2 Sinner		1 Rune
2 Sinner

(Game win ratio going into the last day: Sinner +6, Djokovic +1, Rune -3.
In this scenario, Djokovic would end up with at least +3 since he would have to beat Hurkacz 2-0
That means Djokovic is guaranteed to end up second at worst, since no result can have both Sinner and Rune at +3 or better)

Djokovic - Hurkacz will be playing first. Djokovic has to win 2-0 to keep Sinner honest, otherwise Jannik can just tank his match and qualify while kicking out Novak.

All three players in contention depend on themselves and are guaranteed to get to the SF in case they win 2-0.
Click to expand...
Great post, mate
 
Nice post, but I have a doubt. With the games "ratio", isn't it about the percentage, not the difference? I mean, ratio means division, not subtraction. For example, with 30 games won and 27 games lost, the ratio is 30/27 = 1.11. Not +3. And games won percentage would be 30/57 = 53%, in this case. Normally it wouldn't matter than much, but as Rune does not have a lot of games played (he did not have any calculated for Tsitsipas match), this might change things considerably.

d) If three (3) players are tied,
If three (3) players each have one (1) win, a player having played less than all three (3) matches is automatically eliminated and the player advancing to the single elimination competition is the winner of the match-up of the two (2) players tied with 1-2 records; or
Highest percentage of sets won; or
Highest percentage of games won; or
Click to expand...
 
You're correct, but the difference is still useful as an easy-to-calculate shortcut.

Even taking into account Rune's lower game count, what I said about Djokovic being guaranteed 2nd place in that scenario should still hold.
 
Djokovic_is_the_best#1 said:
I think hurkacz will at least get a set off Novak and could win. Therefore, if Rune beats Sinner in 3 then Novak is toast.

I see Sinner and Rune going through.
Click to expand...
anime-cute.gif
 
aldeayeah said:
You're correct, but the difference is still useful as an easy-to-calculate shortcut.

Even taking into account Rune's lower game count, what I said about Djokovic being guaranteed 2nd place in that scenario should still hold.
Click to expand...

Yes, I did some quick calculations and I think if Djokovic wins 2-0, he is guaranteed to finish in the top 2. He can even win the group.
 
Running the numbers for the worst case scenario for Djokovic if he wins 2-0:

Let's say Djokovic wins 7-6 7-6 (worst case scenario for him), he'd be at 51 - 48 (+3, 51.52%)

Then the best possible outcomes of Rune-Sinner (with the minimum amount of games, to maximize the difference in # of games played) would be:

6-0 0-6 6-2
Rune 28 - 27 (+1, 50.91%)
Sinner 40-38 (+2, 51.28%)
1 Djokovic 2 Sinner 3 Rune

6-0 0-6 6-1
Rune 28 - 26 (+2, 51.85%)
Sinner 39-38 (+1, 50.65%)
1 Rune 2 Djokovic 3 Sinner

Even in this extreme scenario, Djokovic is still guaranteed at least #2 if he wins in straights.
 
weakera said:
You get to choose where you hit the ball, if you lose a point you're -1, win a point +1, don't participate in the point outcome 0. Tiebreak tens style scorekeeping.
Click to expand...
That's kinda mean, then the stronger players will both try to play into the weaker player all the time.
I think it's more fair if you have an assigned direction to hit the ball (the direction could change every X points, to keep things balanced)
 
aldeayeah said:
That's kinda mean, then the stronger players will both try to play into the weaker player all the time.
I think it's more fair if you have an assigned direction to hit the ball (the direction could change every X points, to keep things balanced)
Click to expand...

I'd like to see it tried both ways.
 
With my system, camping the net becomes a very strong strategy, because you have so much time until the ball comes back.

With your system, you're encouraged to send the ball back to the player that just hit, and is likely out of position.

Clearly this needs further research. Let's call the Saudis for some financial support.
 
aldeayeah said:
With my system, camping the net becomes a very strong strategy, because you have so much time until the ball comes back.

With your system, you're encouraged to send the ball back to the player that just hit, and is likely out of position.

Clearly this needs further research. Let's call the Saudis for some financial support.
Click to expand...

It would reward players who play the angles best. The number of options in terms of what you can do with the ball increases exponentially.
 
...with three different surfaces?

I still find this tourney (format, etc.) odd, but the Sinner-Novak match was among the best matches I've seen this year.
Now, will Sinner have enough energy and motivation to beat Rune? What will Hubi bring?
I'll still "bet" on Sinner and Novak to advance.
 
RaulRamirez said:
...with three different surfaces?

I still find this tourney (format, etc.) odd, but the Sinner-Novak match was among the best matches I've seen this year.
Now, will Sinner have enough energy and motivation to beat Rune? What will Hubi bring?
I'll still "bet" on Sinner and Novak to advance.
Click to expand...

The surface point is good. I have as an aside also imagined a kind of Pokemon-style tennis match where the field is retractable and changes throughout the match.
 
theres one funny scenario where djoko and holger will have abs identical ratio by wins, sets (5-3) and games (51, 5152) ..which of course wont happen but still is there too between others.. with 51-48 (7-6 7-6) for djoko and holger winning with 6-4 6-7 6-2
 
alexio said:
theres one funny scenario where djoko and holger will have abs identical ratio by wins, sets (5-3) and games (51, 5152) ..which of course wont happen but still is there too between others.. with 51-48 (7-6 7-6) for djoko and holger winning with 6-4 6-7 6-2
Click to expand...
In that case Djokovic would win because of H2H (it is applied again whenever there is a 2-way tie)
 
maciej84 said:
H2H is not used, because three players are tied. In the case above, this is what decides:
Click to expand...
If Djokovic and Rune have the same exact sp% and gp% that means Sinner has a different gp%

At that point it becomes a 2-way tie and this rule applies:

If (i), (ii), (iii) or (iv) produce one (1) superior player (first place), or one (1) inferior player (third place), and the two (2) remaining players are tied, the tie between those two (2) players shall be broken by head-to-head record.

See page 60: https://www.itftennis.com/media/9098/2023-atp-rulebook.pdf

(either way Djoko wins the tiebreaker)
 
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aldeayeah said:
If Djokovic and Rune have the same exact sp% and gp% that means Sinner has a different gp%

At that point it becomes a 2-way tie and this rule applies:

If (i), (ii), (iii) or (iv) produce one (1) superior player (first place), or one (1) inferior player (third place), and the two (2) remaining players are tied, the tie between those two (2) players shall be broken by head-to-head record.

See page 60: https://www.itftennis.com/media/9098/2023-atp-rulebook.pdf

(either way Djoko wins the tiebreaker)
Click to expand...
I am not 100% what each of them (i), (ii), (iii) or (iv) corresponds to, but it makes sense if 3 players have the same record (2-1), same set%, same game% and a 3 way H2H (lost to one, won against another), then there will literally be no tiebreaker left except rankings.

And if the game% produces a superior or inferior player, then the remaining 2 still have H2H as tiebreaker left, so no need to use rankings.
 
[content deleted by user]
 
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InsideOut900 said:
I am not 100% what each of them (i), (ii), (iii) or (iv) corresponds to, but it makes sense if 3 players have the same record (2-1), same set%, same game% and a 3 way H2H (lost to one, won against another), then there will literally be no tiebreaker left except rankings.

And if the game% produces a superior or inferior player, then the remaining 2 still have H2H as tiebreaker left, so no need to use rankings.
Click to expand...
The version in the website lacks the (i) (ii) (iii) indicators.

The full rule is as follows (from the PDF I linked):

d) If three (3) players are tied, then:
i) If three (3) players each have one (1) win, a player having played less than all three (3) matches is automatically eliminated and the player advancing to the single elimination competition is the winner of the matchup of the two (2) players tied with 1-2 records; or​
ii) Highest percentage of sets won; or​
iii) Highest percentage of games won; a player completing less than all three (3) matches is automatically eliminated and the player advancing to the single elimination competition is the winner of the match-up of the two (2) remaining players; or​
iv) The player positions on the Pepperstone ATP Rankings as of the Monday after the last ATP Tour tournament of the calendar year.​
v) If (i), (ii), (iii) or (iv) produce one (1) superior player (first place), or one (1) inferior player (third place), and the two (2) remaining players are tied, the tie between those two (2) players shall be broken by head-to-head record.​
​
tl;dr: if at any moment in the process it becomes a 2-way tie, you use the H2H to break the tie
 
threehandedbackhand said:
Hurkacz retiring would leave Djokovic at +1, what opens the door for both Rune and Sinner to advance to the semis.

To debunk WTF group

I am seeing many threads asking what are the chances of Sinner, Djokovic and Rune making it to the SF of WTF, so I wanted to thoroughly explain every possible case. First, lets write tiebreakers: 1. Most wins (if two guys win same number of matches, one with more matches played gets advantage)...
tt.tennis-warehouse.com tt.tennis-warehouse.com
Click to expand...
LOL that would be hysterical. Would also require a very specific kind of scoreline in Sinner - Rune though (Rune winning 2-1 with exactly 4 games difference)
 
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If Djokovic wins 2-0 he is through. That's a good thing at the very least. Keep this in mind nolefams if non nolefams make it like sinner is helping Nole or rune. The non nolefams will try to take credit AWAY from Nole even if he qualifies on his own.
 
Djokovic_is_the_best#1 said:
I think hurkacz will at least get a set off Novak and could win. Therefore, if Rune beats Sinner in 3 then Novak is toast.

I see Sinner and Rune going through.
Click to expand...
If Rune goes through and one of Djokovic/Sinner does not, it'd be unfair imo.
Additionally, atleast put as much trust in your guy as a critic of his (me) puts, he'd not lose to Hurkacz.
 
aldeayeah said:
Running the numbers for the worst case scenario for Djokovic if he wins 2-0:

Let's say Djokovic wins 7-6 7-6 (worst case scenario for him), he'd be at 51 - 48 (+3, 51.52%)

Then the best possible outcomes of Rune-Sinner (with the minimum amount of games, to maximize the difference in # of games played) would be:

6-0 0-6 6-2
Rune 28 - 27 (+1, 50.91%)
Sinner 40-38 (+2, 51.28%)
1 Djokovic 2 Sinner 3 Rune

6-0 0-6 6-1
Rune 28 - 26 (+2, 51.85%)
Sinner 39-38 (+1, 50.65%)
1 Rune 2 Djokovic 3 Sinner

Even in this extreme scenario, Djokovic is still guaranteed at least #2 if he wins in straights.
Click to expand...
I wrote some code that calculates all possible permutations of games won and lost in the Djokovic 2-0 and Rune 2-1 scenario (there are only 1692 anyway), and in all of them Djokovic goes through

If anyone wants to check the math, all scenarios are here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...hoDFaQO6IvIKQKK7SsP0DZhBs/edit?usp=drive_link
 
jm1980 said:
I wrote some code that calculates all possible permutations of games won and lost in the Djokovic 2-0 and Rune 2-1 scenario (there are only 1692 anyway), and in all of them Djokovic goes through

If anyone wants to check the math, all scenarios are here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...hoDFaQO6IvIKQKK7SsP0DZhBs/edit?usp=drive_link
Click to expand...
It’s fairly straightforward to show.

The current standings for games won vs games lost are:

Sinner: 32-26
Djokovic: 37-36
Rune: 16-19

Rune needs to win at least 5 more games than Sinner in his match tomorrow for his games won percentage to tie or eclipse Novak’s. This is because anything less than a 5 game swing in his favour would leave his games won percentage strictly lower than 20/19+20 = 51.28% (Djokovic’s minimum games won percentage contingent on a straight set win against Hurkacz is 51.52%), since the function x/2x-1 is decreasing in x and Rune must win at least 12 (greater than 4) games in a three set victory, where x denotes total games won in this instance (the denominator comes from adding total games won to total games lost to come to a percentage, where we have assumed a 4 game swing in Rune’s favour which leaves his total for games lost at one fewer than his total for games won, hence x+x-1=2x-1).

However if Rune does indeed win at least 5 more games than Sinner tomorrow then Jannik’s games won percentage must fall strictly below 32/31+32 = 50.79%, again since x/2x-1 is decreasing in x and Sinner must concede at least 12 (greater than 5) games in a three set loss (a 5 game swing leaves Sinner’s total for games lost at one fewer than his total for games won, hence the denominator as in the previous case), which is also lower than Novak’s minimum games won percentage contingent on a straight set victory.

Thus if Rune ties or eclipses Djokovic’s games won percentage tomorrow then it means that Sinner’s figure necessarily falls behind, which means Novak is through, and if Rune can’t tie or eclipse Djokovic’s games won percentage then Novak is also obviously through.

Since these two events are jointly exhaustive it means that Novak is guaranteed a place in the semis with a straight set win in this scenario.
 
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Mivic said:
It’s fairly straightforward to show.

The current standings for games won vs games lost are:

Sinner: 32-26
Djokovic: 37-36
Rune: 16-19

Rune needs to win at least 5 more games than Sinner in his match tomorrow for his games won percentage to eclipse Novak’s. This is because anything less than a 5 game swing in his favour would leave his games won percentage lower than 20/19+20 = 51.28% (Djokovic’s minimum games won percentage contingent on a straight set win against Hurkacz is 51.51%), since the function x/2x-1 is decreasing in x, where x denotes total games won in this instance (the denominator comes from adding total games won to total games lost, where we have assumed a 4 point swing in Rune’s favour which leaves his total for games lost at one fewer than his total for games won, hence x+x-1=2x-1).

However if Rune wins at least 5 more games than Sinner tomorrow then Jannik’s games won percentage must be less than 32/31+32 = 50.79% (again since x/2x-1 is decreasing in x and a 5 point swing leaves Sinner’s total for games lost at one fewer than his total for games won, hence the denominator as in the previous case), which is also lower than Novak’s minimum games won percentage contingent on a straight set victory.

Thus if Rune eclipses Djokovic’s games won percentage tomorrow then it means that Sinner’s figure necessarily falls behind Djokovic’s, which means Novak is through, and if Rune can’t eclipse Novak’s games won percentage then Djokovic is also obviously through.

Since those two events are jointly exhaustive it means that Novak is guaranteed a place in the semis with a straight set win in this scenario.
Click to expand...
My original concern were edge cases with three way ties, or a tie between Djokovic and Sinner with Rune ahead of both. But yeah, the math doesn't allow for this
 
After Djoko beat Hubi 2-1, we can have these scenarios:

Result (sets won)Sinner 2 - Rune 0Sinner 2 - Rune 1Rune 2 - Sinner 1Rune 2 - Sinner 0
Djokovic 2 - Hurkacz 11 Sinner
2 Djokovic		1 Sinner
2 Djokovic		1 Rune
2 Sinner		1 Rune
2 Sinner

Will Jannik tank?? Stay tuned.
 
If Rune wins today, more power to him, but I can picture this conversation between an interviewer and Holger.

I: Congrats, Holger.
H: Thanks, man.
I: So, can you explain how you advanced over Djokovic when he beat you head to head?
H: Yes, I beat Sinner, and Novak lost to him.
I: Great. So the three of you split your three matches, right?
That seems to equalize things, so it must have come down to your other common opponent?
H: Yes, Sinner beat a mostly healthy Tsitsipas 2 sets to none, I beat an injured Tsitsipas 2 games to one, and Novak beat a fresh Hurcacz 2 sets to one.
I: (sarcastically) Oh, so that explains it.
H: Dude. I'm through, okay?!
 
RaulRamirez said:
If Rune wins today, more power to him, but I can picture this conversation between an interviewer and Holger.

I: Congrats, Holger.
H: Thanks, man.
I: So, can you explain how you advanced over Djokovic when he beat you head to head?
H: Yes, I beat Sinner, and Novak lost to him.
I: Great. So the three of you split your three matches, right?
That seems to equalize things, so it must have come down to your other common opponent?
H: Yes, Sinner beat a mostly healthy Tsitsipas 2 sets to none, I beat an injured Tsitsipas 2 games to one, and Novak beat a fresh Hurcacz 2 sets to one.
I: (sarcastically) Oh, so that explains it.
H: Dude. I'm through, okay?!
Click to expand...
It's the same in slams.

Kyrgios made Wimbledon final after Rafa withdrew.

Players make deep rounds on the basis of withdrawal injuries all the time.

If Novak had never lost to sinner, he would lead the group. After losing to sinner, he should not be sad if he gets knocked out. It's part of the game.

So Novak loses to sinner and if rune beats sinner, I think he definitely deserves it.
 
nachiket nolefam said:
It's the same in slams.

Kyrgios made Wimbledon final after Rafa withdrew.

Players make deep rounds on the basis of withdrawal injuries all the time.

If Novak had never lost to sinner, he would lead the group. After losing to sinner, he should not be sad if he gets knocked out. It's part of the game.

So Novak loses to sinner and if rune beats sinner, I think he definitely deserves it.
Click to expand...
I think you missed the point(s) and possibly the humor/irony.

Whether fair or not (perhaps that's a slightly different discussion), it's a much different dynamic in a standard knockout draw than it is in this (kind of) round robin.
Withdrawals and injury retirements can still happen, but not with replacement players mid-tourney...in a RR system predicated on records versus common opponents!
While I don't think that Sinner will tank, just the fact that it's being discussed as a possibility points out some of the absurdity.
In a knockout draw, you can't lose -- let alone tank strategically -- and advance.

(And I'm criticizing the format and rules; if Novak, Fed, Agassi...my neighbor's aunt...anyone...advanced due to absurd circumstances, my reaction would be the same.)
 
Sinner should aim for 1st and avoid Medvedev in the semis. Zverev is the much easier road to the final. Have Djokovic and Medvedev tire each other out in the semis is best bet.
 
robert.s said:
Sinner should aim for 1st and avoid Medvedev in the semis. Zverev is the much easier road to the final. Have Djokovic and Medvedev tire each other out in the semis is best bet.
Click to expand...
If Sinner gets 1st place, Med can strategically tank against Alcaraz to avoid Djokovic and play Sinner instead
 
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