ATP Finals 2023: Red Group scenarios going into the final day

[aldeayeah]

The numbers for the red group depending on how the last day plays out:

Result (sets won)	Alcaraz 2 - Medvedev 0	Alcaraz 2 - Medvedev 1	Alcaraz 1 - Medvedev 2	Alcaraz 0 - Medvedev 2
Zverev 2 - Rublev 0	1 Alcaraz 2 Medvedev	1 Medvedev 2 Alcaraz	1 Medvedev 2 Zverev	1 Medvedev 2 Zverev
Zverev 2 - Rublev 1	1 Alcaraz 2 Medvedev	1 Medvedev 2 Alcaraz	1 Medvedev 2 Zverev	1 Medvedev 2 Zverev
Zverev 1 - Rublev 2	1 Alcaraz 2 Medvedev	1 Alcaraz 2 Medvedev	1 Medvedev 2 Alcaraz	1 Medvedev 2 Alcaraz
Zverev 0 - Rublev 2	1 Alcaraz 2 Medvedev	1 Alcaraz 2 Medvedev	1 Medvedev 2 Alcaraz	1 Medvedev 2 Alcaraz

This one is much easier than the other group. Med's already in, Rublev's already out. There are a couple of triple tie scenarios thrown in, but Alcaraz always beats Zverev in those because of the set win %.

tl;dr: If Alcaraz wins OR if Zverev loses, Alcaraz goes to the semis. If Zverev wins AND Alcaraz loses, Zverev goes to the semis.

Alcaraz - Medvedev will be playing first. If Alcaraz wins, Zverev - Rublev will be a dead rubber.

 

[nolefam_2024]

No comments since yesterday. This is the difference between Nole and Alcaraz. No one cares about Raz today and even though many don't like Nole they are interested in what happens.

 

[RaulRamirez]

I'd much rather see Alcaraz advance than Zverev, and this is still setting up well for him, despite Z defeating him.
I think he'll find a way to defeat Med, who doesn't have as much incentive -- but it won't be easy.

 

[RaulRamirez]

No comments since yesterday. This is the difference between Nole and Alcaraz. No one cares about Raz today and even though many don't like Nole they are interested in what happens.

Also, Novak's match is coming within the hour and Alcaraz isn't till tomorrow.
Yes, Novak is the bigger comment reply-generator, but it's also more immediate.

 

[aldeayeah]

No comments since yesterday. This is the difference between Nole and Alcaraz. No one cares about Raz today and even though many don't like Nole they are interested in what happens.

No weird scenarios here either. It's only between Zed and Alcaraz.

 

[jm1980]

Alcaraz - Medvedev will be playing first. If Alcaraz wins, Zverev - Rublev will be a dead rubber.

This scheduling makes no sense

 

[aldeayeah]

Yeah I also would have scheduled the other way to avoid the possibility of a dead rubber.

 

[Djokodalerer31]

So even if both Alcaraz and Zverev lose their rubbers, then Alcaraz advances anyway?...is that it?...imho Zverev is way more likely to beat Rublev, than Alcaraz to beat Medvedev anyway, so i don't think that Alcaraz will advance...it will probably be Medvedev and Zverev! Easiest opponent for the final in these conditions for Novak would probably be Alcaraz, ironically (He, who on paper should be the most difficult...), then Zverev and finally Sinner! I think Novak can handle first two, but Sinner - i dunno...i would rather either Zverev or Alcaraz take him out in semis, but it probably won't happen...

 

[tennis3]

tl;dr: If Alcaraz wins OR if Zverev loses, Alcaraz goes to the semis. If Zverev wins AND Alcaraz loses, Zverev goes to the semis.

Alcaraz - Medvedev will be playing first. If Alcaraz wins, Zverev - Rublev will be a dead rubber.

Without a day off, Medvedev can't give a full effort like Sinner. He'd be too tired the next day.

 

[InsideOut900]

Yeah I also would have scheduled the other way to avoid the possibility of a dead rubber.

The winner of this group faces Djoko, so it could be they want to schedule Djoko's match during daytime and since Zed plays at night, in case he qualifies, he has more than half a day to recover.

With this scheduling, no matter the order of the group, each of them will have at least 1 day to recover assuming Sinner plays the night slot. (Medvedev/Raz would have 1.5 days even if either places 2nd)

 

[aldeayeah]

The winner of this group faces Djoko, so it could be they want to schedule Djoko's match during daytime and since Zed plays at night, in case he qualifies, he has more than half a day to recover.

With this scheduling, no matter the order of the group, each of them will have at least 1 day to recover assuming Sinner plays the night slot. (Medvedev/Raz would have 1.5 days even if either places 2nd)

Good point. The winner of the group is guaranteed to come out of the Alcaraz - Med match so it makes sense for them to play the first slot.

Also, there's a decent chance that both semifinalists come out of that match, so that's another reason to have them first, to maximize rest time going into the semis.