ATP Finals 2024 - Turin

Who will win the 2024 ATP Finals?

  • Sinner

    Votes: 37 52.9%

  • Zverev

    Votes: 14 20.0%

  • Alcaraz

    Votes: 9 12.9%

  • Medvedev

    Votes: 1 1.4%

  • Fritz

    Votes: 5 7.1%

  • Ruud

    Votes: 2 2.9%

  • De Minaur

    Votes: 2 2.9%

  • Rublev

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    70
Winner Sinner

Winner Sinner

Professional
With Djokovic's forfeit we officially have the 8 participants in this edition of the Finals;

Sinner
Zverev
Alcaraz
Medvedev
Fritz
Ruud
De Minaur
Rublev

Some curiosities;

If this 2024 was the first season since 2002 in which no member of the big three won a slam, this edition of the Finals will be the first since 2001 in which no member of the big three will be presented.

This will be the second time since 2004 that the event's No. 1 seed is not a member of the big three, the other being Murray in 2016.

It truly is the end of an era.

Medvedev with Djokovic's forfeit is the one who rides the streak of most consecutive participations, with this one he reaches 6.
While in addition to that of Djokovic (7), that of Tsitsipas (5) was also interrupted.

De Minaur is the only one present for the first time.
 
Winner Sinner

Winner Sinner

Professional
Obviously we start on Sunday 10 November with the first day.

The groups still have to be drawn (it will take place on Thursday) but from what filters through, the first day regardless will be reserved for Sinner's group.
In fact it is said that the remaining tickets are doubled in price for Sunday 10th November compared to those for Monday 11th November.

The curiosity for the draw is to see if Alcaraz will end up in Sinner's group or in Zverev's group.
 
JJGUY

JJGUY

Hall of Fame
Rublev is playing right now he is up one set lead, Ruud not yet, I expect both of them would retire in coming days. For De Minaur, he made a last minute withdrawal from Belgrade!
 
JJGUY

JJGUY

Hall of Fame
Both Djokovic and Ruud already made the cut, the last spot was between De Minaur and Rublev.

9eXny3l.png
 
zvelf

zvelf

Hall of Fame
For entertainment purposes, I hope the groupings are:

Sinner
Alcaraz
Ruud
De Minaur

Zverev
Medvedev
Fritz
Rublev
 
J

JMR

Hall of Fame
Winner Sinner said:
With Djokovic's forfeit we officially have the 8 participants in this edition
Click to expand...
Not a forfeit. "Withdrawal" might be a more accurate term, although that usually implies the player was actually entered before pulling out. Here, Djokovic had qualified, but he announced his decision not to play immediately, before the draw.

Anyway, a forfeit is officially losing a scheduled match or game due to a refusal to play not caused by injury or illness, or (in a team sport) due to the refusal or inability to field an eligible team.
 
Pheasant

Pheasant

Legend
Here are the players' chances of winning, IMHO:

Sinner 40%
Zverev 25%
Medvedev 15%
Alcaraz 10%
Fritz 5%
de Minaur 2%
Rublev 1%
Ruud 1%
 
P

ppma

Professional
Pheasant said:
Here are the players' chances of winning, IMHO:

Sinner 40%
Zverev 25%
Medvedev 15%
Alcaraz 10%
Fritz 5%
de Minaur 2%
Rublev 1%
Ruud 1%
Click to expand...
Lol Rublev 1%.
I only want him in the finals to see if he suprises with new kinds injuring himself.
 
Winner Sinner

Winner Sinner

Professional
Pheasant said:
Here are the players' chances of winning, IMHO:

Sinner 40%
Zverev 25%
Medvedev 15%
Alcaraz 10%
Fritz 5%
de Minaur 2%
Rublev 1%
Ruud 1%
Click to expand...
I would never put Medvedev higher than Alcaraz, in fact perhaps I would even put Medvedev behind Fritz on a hierarchical level.
Obviously I'm talking about the involved Medvedev seen post-Wimbledon.


However, in Sinner's group, in addition to Alcaraz (I hope for a double challenge), I would like to see Ruud.
It's been a while since the 2 met, if I'm not mistaken since Vienna 2021, while obviously I don't consider their performance before the last Australian Open.
Matchups never seen or rarely seen are stimulating, while for example the one between Sinner and Medvedev would have become boring by now. :)

Possible iron round;

Sinner
Alcaraz
Fritz
De Minaur/Rublev

Such a group could lend itself to some unexpected surprises.
 
mightyjeditribble

mightyjeditribble

Legend
If Ruud, Rublev and de Minaur each win a RR match, Djokovic would drop out of the top 8. Assuming that he comes back in January to play the AO, being outside the top 8 seeds probably will not help his chances to win another GS title.

Obviously, it's far from clear that these three will actually all be able to win a match; you could imagine a group Sinner-Alcaraz-Ruud-AdM and you wouldn't bet on it. Should Rublev and Ruud keep playing in Metz though, they could both pass Djokovic even before the Tour Finals start.

Dimitrov and Tsitsipas will be the alternates.
 
N

NYTennisfan

Hall of Fame
Everybody outside of Sinner, Zverev and possibly Fritz is in poor form. Don't see anybody outside of Sinner and Zverev having a shot at this. Not much drama really.
 
Tennisfan339

Tennisfan339

Professional
If I were Ruud I'd let Dimitrov or Paul play.

He lost 10 of his last 11 matches since his USO 3rd round win against Shang
US Open R4, L Fritz, 3-6 6-4 6-3 6-2
Davis Cup, L Rocha, 6-3 6-4
Laver Cup, L Cerundolo, 6-4 6-4
Laver Cup, L Shelton, 6-1 6-2
Tokyo R1, L Thompson, 7-6 6-1
Shanghaï R2, L Vukic, 6-4 6-4
Stockholm R2, W Sonego, 6-3 6-3
Stockholm QF, L Griekspoor 7-5 7-6
Basel R1, L Bautista-Agut 6-3 3-6 6-3
Paris-Bercy R2, L Thompson 7-3 3-6 6-4
Metz R2, L Bonzi, 6-4 6-4

Henrique Rocha was ranked around #200 in that Davis Cup match. Bonzi is ranked #125 and hasn't won a single match on the main tour this year before this week. If I don't count the RBA match, Ruud is literally his first victory this year. And even between RG and his 3 US Open wins, Ruud was already on a steep losing streak. Lost to Fognini, Monteiro, Korda and Auger-Aliassime. His results since Paris are cataclysmic. Not even worthy of a top-100. This is utterly embarrassing. How is he gonna stand a chance in Turin if he can't even win 1 match against weaker opponents? :unsure:
 
Last edited:
Winner Sinner

Winner Sinner

Professional
Tennisfan339 said:
If I were Ruud I'd let Dimitrov or Paul play.

He lost 10 of his last 11 matches since his USO 3rd round win against Shang
US Open R4, L Fritz, 3-6 6-4 6-3 6-2
Davis Cup, L Rocha, 6-3 6-4
Laver Cup, L Cerundolo, 6-4 6-4
Laver Cup, L Shelton, 6-1 6-2
Tokyo R1, L Thompson, 7-6 6-1
Shanghaï R2, L Vukic, 6-4 6-4
Stockholm R2, W Sonego, 6-3 6-3
Stockholm QF, L Griekspoor 7-5 7-6
Basel R1, L Bautista-Agut 6-3 3-6 6-3
Paris-Bercy R2, L Thompson 7-3 3-6 6-4
Metz R2, L Bonzi, 6-4 6-4

Henrique Rocha was ranked around #200 in that Davis Cup match. Bonzi is ranked #125 and hasn't won a single match on the main tour this year before this week. If I don't count the RBA match, Ruud is literally his first victory this year. And even between RG and his 3 US Open wins, Ruud was already on a steep losing streak. Lost to Fognini, Monteiro, Korda and Auger-Aliassime. His results since Paris are cataclysmic. Not even worthy of a top-100. This is utterly embarrassing. How is he gonna stand a chance in Turin if he can't even win 1 match against weaker opponents? :unsure:
Click to expand...
True, but having made the necessary distinctions, even in 2022 post US Open and pre ATP Finals he was anything but enthusiastic* (euphemism) and yet then in that edition of the Finals he even managed to play the final act against all odds.

*
250 Seoul
Eliminated in QF vs Nishioka(56)

500 Tokyo
Eliminated R32 vs Munar(58)

500 Basile
Eliminated R32 vs Wawrinka(194)

1000 Bercy
Eliminated R16 vs Musetti(23)
 
Aabye5

Aabye5

G.O.A.T.
Tennisfan339 said:
If I were Ruud I'd let Dimitrov or Paul play.

He lost 10 of his last 11 matches since his USO 3rd round win against Shang
US Open R4, L Fritz, 3-6 6-4 6-3 6-2
Davis Cup, L Rocha, 6-3 6-4
Laver Cup, L Cerundolo, 6-4 6-4
Laver Cup, L Shelton, 6-1 6-2
Tokyo R1, L Thompson, 7-6 6-1
Shanghaï R2, L Vukic, 6-4 6-4
Stockholm R2, W Sonego, 6-3 6-3
Stockholm QF, L Griekspoor 7-5 7-6
Basel R1, L Bautista-Agut 6-3 3-6 6-3
Paris-Bercy R2, L Thompson 7-3 3-6 6-4
Metz R2, L Bonzi, 6-4 6-4

Henrique Rocha was ranked around #200 in that Davis Cup match. Bonzi is ranked #125 and hasn't won a single match on the main tour this year before this week. If I don't count the RBA match, Ruud is literally his first victory this year. And even between RG and his 3 US Open wins, Ruud was already on a steep losing streak. Lost to Fognini, Monteiro, Korda and Auger-Aliassime. His results since Paris are cataclysmic. Not even worthy of a top-100. This is utterly embarrassing. How is he gonna stand a chance in Turin if he can't even win 1 match against weaker opponents? :unsure:
Click to expand...

But then he'd be someone who wasn't...Ruud
 
Aussie Darcy

Aussie Darcy

Bionic Poster
Doubles groups:

Bob Bryan:
#1 Arevalo/Pavic
#4 Bolelli/Vavassori
#6 Bopanna/Ebden
#8 Krawietz/Putz

Mike Bryan:
#2 Granollers/Zaballos
#3 Koolhof/Mektic
#5 Purcell/Thompson
#7 Heliovaara/Patten
 
Aussie Darcy

Aussie Darcy

Bionic Poster
Singles groups:

Nastase group:
#1 Sinner
#4 Medvedev
#5 Fritz
#7 De Minaur

Newcombe group:
#2 Zverev
#3 Alcaraz
#6 Ruud
#8 Rublev
 
J

JMR

Hall of Fame
Aussie Darcy said:
Singles groups:

Nastase group:
#1 Sinner
#4 Medvedev
#5 Fritz
#7 De Minaur

Newcombe group:
#2 Zverev
#3 Alcaraz
#6 Ruud
#8 Rublev
Click to expand...
This comes very close to the logical, seed-based groupings that should be used uniformly: [1, 4, 5, 8] and [2, 3, 6, 7].
 
Winner Sinner

Winner Sinner

Professional
As a Sinner fan I think it was better to have Alcaraz in the group.
Now the chances that between the semi-final and the final he will have to meet his two main opponents (Zverev and Alcaraz) in sequence rather than letting them fight each other in the semi-final, increase dramatically. That said, Sinner doesn't have to fear anyone but it's others who have to worry about him.
 
Bride of Alcaraz

Bride of Alcaraz

Rookie
Winner Sinner said:
As a Sinner fan I think it was better to have Alcaraz in the group.
Now the chances that between the semi-final and the final he will have to meet his two main opponents (Zverev and Alcaraz) in sequence rather than letting them fight each other in the semi-final, increase dramatically. That said, Sinner doesn't have to fear anyone but it's others who have to worry about him.
Click to expand...
Little known fact, Alcaraz is 2-0 vs. Sinner this year on hardcourt on the ATP Tour!
 
N

NYTennisfan

Hall of Fame
Aabye5 said:
Looking at the groups, he has about a good a chance as anyone. I would appreciate a Rublev surprise, but that's unlikely.
Click to expand...
I'm as big an Alcaraz fan as any but his season was cooked the moment he lost the Gold Medal match, Sinner and Zverev are in much better form and even Fritz I'd place above him right now. I wouldn't say no chance because of course he's capable but I'd be shocked if he wins this thing.
 
Aabye5

Aabye5

G.O.A.T.
NYTennisfan said:
I'm as big an Alcaraz fan as any but his season was cooked the moment he lost the Gold Medal match, Sinner and Zverev are in much better form and even Fritz I'd place above him right now. I wouldn't say no chance because of course he's capable but I'd be shocked if he wins this thing.
Click to expand...

But Rublev and Ruud do not seem to be, and two have to make it through to the semis. Maybe one of them will surprise, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Agree about Zverev being in better form, so the question then becomes whether Alcaraz plays Sinner in the semis. Everyone keeps mentioning that Carlitos hasn't lost to him this year, but this surface would seem to favor Sinner. If somehow Zverev ends up playing Sinner in the semis, all bets are off.
 
Winner Sinner

Winner Sinner

Professional
For me the only real upset that could occur based on the seedings is Fritz's qualification against Medvedev.
In this scenario where perhaps they pass in strict order of placement, Sinner and Fritz on one side and Zverev and Alcaraz on the other, two controversial semi-finals could arise;

Sinner-Alcaraz
Zverev-Fritz

In practice, the two theoretical favorites of the tournament who meet their two bête noires in the season.
Having said that even if Medvedev and not Fritz passed, little would change in this respect, considering that Medvedev is also a type of opponent that Zverev is struggling to digest, especially since his return last year.
 
T

tudwell

G.O.A.T.
NYTennisfan said:
I'm as big an Alcaraz fan as any but his season was cooked the moment he lost the Gold Medal match, Sinner and Zverev are in much better form and even Fritz I'd place above him right now. I wouldn't say no chance because of course he's capable but I'd be shocked if he wins this thing.
Click to expand...
Zverev won Paris but before that he lost to Musetti (ranked 17) in Vienna and Goffin (66) in Shanghai. Carlos lost to Machac (33) in Shanghai and then to Humbert (18) in front of a raucous home crowd in Paris, but before those two tournaments won Beijing, beating Sinner in the process. Obviously Paris is the most relevant of all these results, but it's not like Zverev's on the hottest of streaks or like Carlos hasn't even been winning matches. He's certainly done much better post-US Open than he did last year, and last year he made the semis in Turin.

I mean, I still have Zverev as second favorite based on Paris and his history at this tournament, but not all that far in front of Alcaraz.
 
Winner Sinner

Winner Sinner

Professional
Zverev is the first favourite, as befits those who in training on the central court yesterday beat Alcaraz 6-4 2-1, and today Sinner 7-6. :)
 
travlerajm

travlerajm

Talk Tennis Guru
Indoor conditions versus outdoor conditions matters a lot. Flat ball hitters do better indoors. Grinders and spinners do better outdoors. Also, the condition of the air in Paris this year was unusually dry and not very representative of typical moderate humidity indoor conditions.
 
N

NYTennisfan

Hall of Fame
tudwell said:
Zverev won Paris but before that he lost to Musetti (ranked 17) in Vienna and Goffin (66) in Shanghai. Carlos lost to Machac (33) in Shanghai and then to Humbert (18) in front of a raucous home crowd in Paris, but before those two tournaments won Beijing, beating Sinner in the process. Obviously Paris is the most relevant of all these results, but it's not like Zverev's on the hottest of streaks or like Carlos hasn't even been winning matches. He's certainly done much better post-US Open than he did last year, and last year he made the semis in Turin.

I mean, I still have Zverev as second favorite based on Paris and his history at this tournament, but not all that far in front of Alcaraz.
Click to expand...
He should make the semis but I can't see him winning this tournament in current form. 1st round loss to Oldfils, 2nd rounder to random Dutch guy then he did win Beijing which was a nice surprise but losing to Machac and Humbert in back to back tournaments should never be acceptable for a top player, that's 4 losses in big tournaments post Olympics against players he should beat in his sleep. Sinner has been miles better this late summer and fall outside of the one head to head.

With that said, I think he'll be refreshed and in better form to start 2025 but for all intents and purposes that Gold Medal loss to Djokovic derailed his season, he hasn't been nearly the same since.
 
Winner Sinner

Winner Sinner

Professional

ATP Finals Betting Odds​

  • Jannik Sinner @ 2.25 (+125)
  • Carlos Alcaraz @ 3.00 (+200)
  • Alexander Zverev @ 7.50 (+650)
  • Daniil Medvedev @ 10.00 (+900)
  • Taylor Fritz @ 17.00 (+1600)
  • Andrey Rublev @ 21.00 (+2000)
  • Alex de Minaur @ 21.00 (+2000)
  • Casper Ruud @ 41.00 (+4000)
 
T

tudwell

G.O.A.T.
NYTennisfan said:
He should make the semis but I can't see him winning this tournament in current form. 1st round loss to Oldfils, 2nd rounder to random Dutch guy then he did win Beijing which was a nice surprise but losing to Machac and Humbert in back to back tournaments should never be acceptable for a top player, that's 4 losses in big tournaments post Olympics against players he should beat in his sleep. Sinner has been miles better this late summer and fall outside of the one head to head.

With that said, I think he'll be refreshed and in better form to start 2025 but for all intents and purposes that Gold Medal loss to Djokovic derailed his season, he hasn't been nearly the same since.
Click to expand...
I mean, I can see why you see it that way, and I do think Cincy and the US Open were very much an Olympics hangover, but after that he rebounded quite well. Including Davis Cup and Laver Cup, he won some 12 matches in a row before losing to Machac. Even if you don't want to count Laver Cup, he's gone 11-2 since the US Open. 15-3 with both exhibitions included. Last year he was 5-3 between the US Open and Turin, so he's in a lot better form now. Will that translate into a YEC title? Probably not, but with Djokovic out of his way (and his own better form), the path seems a bit easier than last year.
 
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