ATP Finals 2025 - Group Connors SF qualifying scenarios

[aldeayeah]

The ATP finals SF qualifying procedure is famously byzantine, so I made this helpful table for people to know what's at stake in the Connors Group final round:

These are the qualifying scenarios for each player:

- Alcaraz qualifies if he wins a single set, or if De Minaur wins.
- Fritz qualifies if he wins his match, or if he loses 1-2 and Alcaraz wins.
- Musetti qualifies if he beats Alcaraz 2-0, or if he wins 2-1 and De Minaur wins.
- De Minaur needs to beat Fritz 2-0, and hope for Alcaraz to win.

Some takeaways:

- Every player can still feasibly qualify for the SF or be eliminated going into the final RR match.
- Alcaraz, Fritz and Musetti can all top the group.
- Those three also have a result that guarantees them qualifying (a win or a 1-2 loss for Alcaraz, a win of any kind for Fritz, and a 2-0 win for Musetti)
- Because of how the sets won % are lined up, there will be no need to use the games won % as a tiebreaker. (Barring withdrawals or retirements which may throw everything out of whack.)

 

[aldeayeah]

On the other hand, Borg Group possible outcomes are way simpler:

1. Sinner
2. Whoever wins FAA vs Zverev

 

[Breakpointerer]

I knew the moment I saw it that it would be an avi shortly

 

[aldeayeah]

I knew the moment I saw it that it would be an avi shortly

Big hair Med will be back, but I'll be rocking this one for the rest of the week.

 

[Sudacafan]

The ATP finals SF qualifying procedure is famously byzantine, so I made this helpful table for people to know what's at stake in the Connors Group final round:

These are the qualifying scenarios for each player:

- Alcaraz qualifies if he wins a single set, or if De Minaur wins.
- Fritz qualifies if he wins his match, or if he loses 1-2 and Alcaraz wins.
- Musetti qualifies if he beats Alcaraz 2-0, or if he wins 2-1 and De Minaur wins.
- De Minaur needs to beat Fritz 2-0, and hope for Alcaraz to win.

Some takeaways:

- Every player can still feasibly qualify for the SF or be eliminated going into the final RR match.
- Alcaraz, Fritz and Musetti can all top the group.
- Those three also have a result that guarantees them qualifying (a win or a 1-2 loss for Alcaraz, a win of any kind for Fritz, and a 2-0 win for Musetti)
- Because of how the sets won % are lined up, there will be no need to use the games won % as a tiebreaker. (Barring withdrawals or retirements which may throw everything out of whack.)

Alcaraz clearly features in the majority of combination boxes, giving him the highest percentage among the four of his group.
Who comes next?

 

[aldeayeah]

Alcaraz clearly features in the majority of combination boxes, giving him the highest percentage among the four of his group.
Who comes next?

Alcaraz (14/16), Fritz (10/16), Musetti (6/16), De Minaur (2/16)

 

[aldeayeah]

AdM wins first set. And thus the probability space shrinks.

 

[GRASScaraz]

AdM wins first set. And thus the probability space shrinks.

This is good for Musetti, right?

 

[aldeayeah]

This is good for Musetti, right?

Yeah, Musetti wants AdM to win, that way he can qualify for SF even if he drops a set, and he'd also avoid Sinner.

(of course, he'd still need to beat alcaraz)

 

[aldeayeah]

Fritz is out after losing 0-2, and Alcaraz is now guaranteed to be in the semis. He'll be 1st ahead of AdM if he wins today, or 2nd behind Musetti if he loses.

 

[RSJfan]

The ATP Tour is too complicated for me to follow so I follow TTW instead. But I’m told not to worry because the ATP Tour supposedly adds up.

ATPTour
It all adds up

 

[Sudacafan]

Fritz is out

LOL, I already said this is not Laver Cup.

 

[Better_Call_Raul]

The ATP finals SF qualifying procedure is famously byzantine, so I made this helpful table for people to know what's at stake in the Connors Group final round:

These are the qualifying scenarios for each player:

- Alcaraz qualifies if he wins a single set, or if De Minaur wins.
- Fritz qualifies if he wins his match, or if he loses 1-2 and Alcaraz wins.
- Musetti qualifies if he beats Alcaraz 2-0, or if he wins 2-1 and De Minaur wins.
- De Minaur needs to beat Fritz 2-0, and hope for Alcaraz to win.

Some takeaways:

- Every player can still feasibly qualify for the SF or be eliminated going into the final RR match.
- Alcaraz, Fritz and Musetti can all top the group.
- Those three also have a result that guarantees them qualifying (a win or a 1-2 loss for Alcaraz, a win of any kind for Fritz, and a 2-0 win for Musetti)
- Because of how the sets won % are lined up, there will be no need to use the games won % as a tiebreaker. (Barring withdrawals or retirements which may throw everything out of whack.)

What on earth does the strike-through represent?

 

[aldeayeah]

It means I updated the table after the first set of Fritz vs Adm.