ATP M1000 Canada Open (Toronto) 2025

Who wins?

  • Total voters
    19
  • Poll closed .
Rattie

Rattie

G.O.A.T.
Top 16 of the 32 Seeds:
1. Alexander Zverev
2. Taylor Fritz
3. Lorenzo Musetti
4. Ben Shelton
5. Holger Rune
6. Andrey Rublev
7. Frances Tiafoe
8. Casper Ruud
9. Alex de Minaur
10. Daniil Medvedev
11. Karen Khachanov
12. Jakub Mensik
13. Flávio Cobolli
14. Francisco Cerundolo
15. Arthur Fils
16. Tomas Machac

Notable by their absence: Sinner, Alcaraz, Djokovic, Draper, Paul, Dimitrov, Bublik, Darderi, Hurkacz, and Baez.

Only 2 of the top 6 ranked players are competing in this Masters. Sinner, Alcaraz and Djokovic appear to be taking a good break coming off the grass/clay season in preparation for the hard courts. Draper, Paul, Dimitrov, Darderi, and Hurkacz have injuries especially unfortunate for Darderi who literally hurt his ankle in the last moments of taking the title in Umag yesterday!

Musetti since his injury in RG hasn’t been himself, losing in R1 at both Wimbledon to Basilashvili and Washington to Norrie.
Fils returns after a long break having been injured in RG and missing the entire grass season.
De Minaur took the title in Washington yesterday in a battle with Alejandro Davidovich-Fokina where he saved three championship points, looking to cement his place in the top 10. Despite his loss, ADF is playing some great tennis beating both Fritz and Shelton on route to the final and is now inside the top 20 for the first time.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1948782251258368372

https://twitter.com/x/status/1948790224253059355

So do we get an unexpected winner again as happened last year when Popyrin took the trophy (he’s the No 18 seed and defending champion) or do Fritz and Zverev take advantage of the absence of the big guns and meet in the final?
 
I guess we'll see if all those late night conversations with Toni and Rafa helped the Ziraffe. I'm interested in that storyline, but I think he'll remain Peter Pan.
 
I think the most likely final is Zverev v De Minaur.

So long as he's not too tired, De Minaur has a decent shot of grabbing an MS event here, though he'll probably need somebody else to take out Zverev.
 
Most bookies have Zverev and Fritz as joint favorites, and some have Fritz slightly ahead.

Not sure why, but I don't see it for Fritz at this event. He had a good grass-court season and he does have a good draw:

R2 - Carballes Baena/Ugo Caribelli (if this were clay, maybe they'd be a test)
R3 - probably Diallo (who shouldn't be as dangerous on the slower hard courts as he was at Wimbledon)
R4 - seeded to be Fils, but I think Fils is probably coming back too soon from his RG injury, so more likely Lehecka, who could be dangerous
QF - seeded to be Rublev, but might well be Mensik
SF - seeded to be Shelton, then Tiafoe, then De Minaur
F - seeded to be Zverev

Maybe it's because I think the courts in Canada tend to be slower than someone like Fritz would want them to be, and maybe it's because he was so gassed on Friday night against ADF, but I don't see Fritz getting this done. Stranger things have happened of course.
 
Rattie said:
I’d love to see Demon get a Masters title.
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This is probably as good a chance as he'll get, right, given that it's a good event for him (being the only one he has made a final of before), the field is depleted (no reason it won't be in future, though), and he comes in full of confidence, while that's not true of many of the other high seeds.

It's a very open tournament, though. Zverev and Medvedev are probably a bit better than the rest of the field on courts like these if they can play near their best, but that's unlikely for Medvedev and at best an open question for Zverev. The next crop of players are really pretty close to each other, so there are decent opportunities for Fritz, De Minaur, Rublev, Tiafoe, Shelton, and maybe Rune, Musetti, Mensik, Lehecka, and Cobolli.

I guess it would be fair to say that if ADF were able to bounce back from yesterday's disappointment, he should be in that long list of contenders, too, but it seems very unlikely to me that he can bounce back quickly enough. Sinner bounced back quickly from the RG disappointment, but: a) he's won comparable tournaments to RG before, and b) even he lost in Halle ten days after the RG loss, so he didn't win his very next tournament.
 
helterskelter said:
Most bookies have Zverev and Fritz as joint favorites, and some have Fritz slightly ahead.

Not sure why, but I don't see it for Fritz at this event. He had a good grass-court season and he does have a good draw:

R2 - Carballes Baena/Ugo Caribelli (if this were clay, maybe they'd be a test)
R3 - probably Diallo (who shouldn't be as dangerous on the slower hard courts as he was at Wimbledon)
R4 - seeded to be Fils, but I think Fils is probably coming back too soon from his RG injury, so more likely Lehecka, who could be dangerous
QF - seeded to be Rublev, but might well be Mensik
SF - seeded to be Shelton, then Tiafoe, then De Minaur
F - seeded to be Zverev

Maybe it's because I think the courts in Canada tend to be slower than someone like Fritz would want them to be, and maybe it's because he was so gassed on Friday night against ADF, but I don't see Fritz getting this done. Stranger things have happened of course.
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Fritz is also 4-6 lifetime in Canada. Doesn't tend to do well here.
 
placebo said:
Fritz is also 4-6 lifetime in Canada. Doesn't tend to do well here.
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Well, if he makes the QF this time, he will at least improve to 50-50 lifetime (7-7). I think he'll make R4, as I don't see Diallo being that dangerous on a slow hard court, but Lehecka could beat him.

Just noticed that if he does make the QF, he completes the set of QFs at MS events. Surprising that he's never made the QF in Canada yet has made the QFs twice in Monte Carlo, and once made the SF, and made the QF in Rome. RG is the only slam he's not made the QF of. He even has a win over Tsitsipas to his name in Monte Carlo, and Tsitsipas is a Monte Carlo all-time great with three titles to his name there.
 
helterskelter said:
This is probably as good a chance as he'll get, right, given that it's a good event for him (being the only one he has made a final of before), the field is depleted (no reason it won't be in future, though), and he comes in full of confidence, while that's not true of many of the other high seeds.

It's a very open tournament, though. Zverev and Medvedev are probably a bit better than the rest of the field on courts like these if they can play near their best, but that's unlikely for Medvedev and at best an open question for Zverev. The next crop of players are really pretty close to each other, so there are decent opportunities for Fritz, De Minaur, Rublev, Tiafoe, Shelton, and maybe Rune, Musetti, Mensik, Lehecka, and Cobolli.

I guess it would be fair to say that if ADF were able to bounce back from yesterday's disappointment, he should be in that long list of contenders, too, but it seems very unlikely to me that he can bounce back quickly enough. Sinner bounced back quickly from the RG disappointment, but: a) he's won comparable tournaments to RG before, and b) even he lost in Halle ten days after the RG loss, so he didn't win his very next tournament.
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I’m not convinced ADF won’t suffer from that loss. Alex seems to have turned around from the dark place he was in only recently. One thing is for sure, it’s a scrap now in the absence of the big names, a lot of the draw see an opportunity with this Masters. Rooting for Demon and Alejandro although they could meet again in the QFs.
 
Rattie said:
I’m not convinced ADF won’t suffer from that loss. Alex seems to have turned around from the dark place he was in only recently. One thing is for sure, it’s a scrap now in the absence of the big names, a lot of the draw see an opportunity with this Masters. Rooting for Demon and Alejandro although they could meet again in the QFs.
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I'm fairly convinced ADF will suffer from the loss. I don't expect much from him here as a result - I think he'd probably be best advised simply to withdraw.

Besides the disappointment of the loss, he also had three successive late night finishes, whereas ADM played earlier in the previous rounds. Plus ADF had two very long matches in three days. (ADM had two long matches in four days - his R16 match against Lehecka was long on Thursday - but I think his fitness means that shouldn't be too much of a problem).
 
helterskelter said:
I'm fairly convinced ADF will suffer from the loss. I don't expect much from him here as a result - I think he'd probably be best advised simply to withdraw.

Besides the disappointment of the loss, he also had three successive late night finishes, whereas ADM played earlier in the previous rounds. Plus ADF had two very long matches in three days. (ADM had two long matches in four days - his R16 match against Lehecka was long on Thursday - but I think his fitness means that shouldn't be too much of a problem).
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I don’t agree that ADF should withdraw. He is playing great tennis, why would he do that? He beat two top 10 opponents and narrowly missed out on a title. Good luck to him in Canada.
 
Rattie said:
I don’t agree that ADF should withdraw. He is playing great tennis, why would he do that? He beat two top 10 opponents and narrowly missed out on a title. Good luck to him in Canada.
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Up to him, of course, and if he plays Toronto, I wish him well. But if does play, I think there's a pretty good chance of him losing his opening match (which is scheduled to be against either Moutet or Brooksby, and so isn't easy) and then feeling even worse about yesterday's loss.
 
Sinner is screwed, he's skipping Canada which he's defending 200 points at.
Alcaraz is skipping Canada which he's defending ZERO points at.
And then they go to Cincinnati where Sinner is defending 1000 points, while Alcaraz only has to defend 10 points.
And the US Open where Sinner is defending 2000 points, Alcaraz only 50 points.
Say goodbye to the #1 ranking Sinner, and congrats to Alcaraz the 2022 and 2025 Year-End-#1.
 
ALCARAZWON said:
Sinner is screwed, he's skipping Canada which he's defending 200 points at.
Alcaraz is skipping Canada which he's defending ZERO points at.
And then they go to Cincinnati where Sinner is defending 1000 points, while Alcaraz only has to defend 10 points.
And the US Open where Sinner is defending 2000 points, Alcaraz only 50 points.
Say goodbye to the #1 ranking Sinner, and congrats to Alcaraz the 2022 and 2025 Year-End-#
Click to expand...
Are you going to paste this over here ? https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...d-not-age-well-post-your-samples-here.787896/
 
Draw looks open so there could well be another surprise Canada winner. I'm going to throw my hat in with Jiri Lehecka, not based on anything in particular he's done recently, but on an inkling that his powerful flat hitting and big serving will reach a match-winning crescendo for a week or so which will top whoever else also happens to be playing well. This title success will of course be followed up by a straight sets second round defeat to Damir Dzumhur at the US Open.
 
I really want to like Fonseca but his fans are so obnoxious I find myself rooting against him lol.

I remember Schoolkate taking a set off Sinner (AO I think?) and he's seems like a nice bloke so I'll back him.
 
Oh no, future GOAT lost again. Good he's only 18. Alcaraz won his first slam with 19, so Fonseca has some time.
 
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Vincent-C said:
whose alracaz
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The Humble Calf. He never used to be so Humble but then he won a silver medal and it brought him down to earth a bit. Also, he learned about Bovine Humility.

Anyway, I just said that for the record. No reason to expect Fonseca to match Alcaraz age for age. Sinner didn't win an MS event until three days before his 22nd birthday, which is more than three years older than Fonseca is now. One doesn't have to be a prodigy to become a top player.
 
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helterskelter said:
The Humble Calf. He never used to be so Humble but then he won a silver medal and it brought him down to earth a bit. Also, he learned about Bovine Humility.

Anyway, I just said for the record. No reason to expect Fonseca to match Alcaraz age for age. Sinner didn't win an MS event until three days before his 22nd birthday, which is more than three years older than Fonseca is now. One doesn't have to be a prodigy to become a top player.
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Agreed on Fonseca- I think he'll do fine, and look forward to watching him rise. But this place *is* largely a flavor-of-the-week club..
 
Arthur needs to face the side fence when tossing the ball for serving. He's facing the net while tossing the ball... Not good for maximum body rotation.
 
norcal said:
I really want to like Fonseca but his fans are so obnoxious I find myself rooting against him lol.

I remember Schoolkate taking a set off Sinner (AO I think?) and he's seems like a nice bloke so I'll back him.
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Scholkate got the skills to trouble higher ranked players.
 
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