Dimitrov has only himself to blame. He had match points at 6-5 in the third, and he was playing beautifully. How he crumbled in the tiebreak is a mystery. I agree that it’s a pattern with Rune, I saw it too and was thinking along the same lines while watching. Anyhow it was a fun match and both players played high quality tennis at times. Very entertaining.
I actually rewatched most of the 3rd set with a tennis friend (who'd been watching Nole) to confirm my impressions. I generally don't watch Dimitrov, but was well aware of his big jump in form down in Australia this year and then recent near peak level in Miami (watched both.)
My additional takes on this match (which has been quite popular with many):
1. Dimitrov still is not all that effective on clay
2. Dimitrov (like Holger) was conserving energy much of the time in the match which had him shy away from grinding to beat Holger (which probably would have worked really well).
3. This led to both players playing very aggressively in the match which a lot of people seemed to have enjoyed.
Holger shut down those match points very well with some nice serving and then later some big first strikes off of first serves. Rune is very dangerous if you just try to play passively against him (even Djokovic's lock down mode fails) because Holger is going to take the bull by the horns and get very creative. On the first point of the TB he broke Grigor by coming to the net on a slightly delayed move and pounced on Grigor's cross court slice. He then held the next two points for 3-0, but Grigor just a mini-break down and then the tie-break lottery came through for Rune with the net cord that leaped over Grigor's attempted volley much to his chagrin. 4-0 and it was quickly downhill from there. One of the things you won't spot right off is that Grigor down 5-1 wanted to hit a dropshot, but Rune read it and so he tried to slice and jerked it into the net which didn't look very good, but he was blown up by Rune reading it. 6-1. (On the fake drop shot front, Holger did execute one on Grigor earlier in the set, but that was very planned.)
I believe Holger has now won seven straight deciding set tiebreakers and is 11-2 in TBs this year (which is good since this year would have been even worse.)
Overall I'm really disappointed with Holger's clay level so far. I'd hoped the increase in power of his shots would really help him, but the impact has been more subtle. He's almost certainly out of gas after these two three setters and there is no way he'll go deep at RG this year with this kind of inefficiency. It will be really hard to surpass his 2023 clay season since that was helped by Rome being quite cold and slow. Beating Grigor will help him try to keep in the top 8 for RG, but its more likely his ranking may drop as low as 16.
