ATP Miami 2019 - Tsitsipas vs Shapovalov

Who will win?

  • Tsitsipas in 2

    Votes: 11 26.2%
  • Tsitsipas in 3

    Votes: 14 33.3%
  • Shapovalov in 2

    Votes: 1 2.4%
  • Shapovalov in 3

    Votes: 17 40.5%

  • Total voters
    42
very good match from what i saw of it...

don't know why Tpas does not slice that often to break up the rythum of his opponent.

although his BH was very good this match.

Shapo just has a little more pop and was consistent enough this match to eek it out.
 
Wow - all in all, really really high quality match. Very clean from both guys with the exception of the minor 2nd set dip from Tsip. Unreal serving that was decided by only a few crucial points
Would have been better to watch it with a slightly lower angle. The camera view was like birds-eye
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Scary think about Menace: He still has mostly peach fuzz - so he's going to get bigger and stronger. This is one powerful kid!

The Cat aka Felix is much the same. Doesn't this suggest yet another flip age, like right after Laver and Co.? @Meles
No. Felix is the only potential next level player. Guess he could be a Connors like figure, but not seeing a Borg yet and too soon for McEnroe. Shapo could get radically better from here on out and it seems quite likely. Really controlled play in the last two matches which is a huge step for him. All of these players are going to have big bumps up in level at age 22 or so. Djoko2011 went next level at age 24. Federe went ape in 2004 at 23. These guys all a long, long way from those final steps so just can't rule out Shapo who is turning 20 shortly. FAA is the one who is scary with 53.0% hard court points won this year so far. Same bday as Fed and just 18 right now 17-18 months younger than Shapo.
 
Scary think about Menace: He still has mostly peach fuzz - so he's going to get bigger and stronger. This is one powerful kid!

The Cat aka Felix is much the same. Doesn't this suggest yet another flip age, like right after Laver and Co.? @Meles
neither needs or probably wants to get stronger!

tennis isn't the WWE or whatever its called now :rolleyes:
 
No. Felix is the only potential next level player. Guess he could be a Connors like figure, but not seeing a Borg yet and too soon for McEnroe. Shapo could get radically better from here on out and it seems quite likely. Really controlled play in the last two matches which is a huge step for him. All of these players are going to have big bumps up in level at age 22 or so. Djoko2011 went next level at age 24. Federe went ape in 2004 at 23. These guys all a long, long way from those final steps so just can't rule out Shapo who is turning 20 shortly. FAA is the one who is scary with 53.0% hard court points won this year so far. Same bday as Fed and just 18 right now 17-18 months younger than Shapo.
DUH, Meles, way to totally miss my point. Both are the same in that they don't shave or barely need a razor, thus will gain more strength!

As opposed to some of these young guys who look like they finished puberty at age 13. (Exaggeration, but I feel like I have to be Captain Obvious tonight.)

FAA reminds me a bit of young Pancho Gonzalez (going on what I read about him) and young Sampras.) I like everything about his game. As for how much Denis can peak, I'm not the guy who predicts. I like his game but have doubts about how high anyone can rise in this era who is not over 6 feet tall.
 

Mainad

Bionic Poster
That was a helluva good match with outcome uncertain right up to the end!

Did think Stefanos would prevail in the end but Denis upped his level and was surprisingly clutch in those 2 final sets especially the breaker. He cut down on his usual errors and focussed on winning. Is he finally maturing into the kind of player we all suspected he could be? Tonight was certainly a promising start.
 
neither needs or probably wants to get stronger!

tennis isn't the WWE or whatever its called now :rolleyes:
It depends on where the extra strength takes place. In general players continue to sever better and better as they age, and return weaker. Anything that adds pop on the serve is a good thing if it doesn't cut down on agility and movement.

But I'm not a fan of bulking up. I think at the moment it's been a trend, nothing more. When these guys put on upper body muscle it's just extra weight to carry around unless it adds power to the strokes.
 
Why? Because the amazing logic of comparing Raonic and Shapo as similar just because they are both Canadian?

Look at all the other things they have in common: both extremely tall, both on the clumsy side, similar shots as well as similar looking.

Oh, wait? :D
Raonic partly hit speed bumps because of injury, I don't see Shap doing that, yet.

Actually, Shap looks to have more potential off the ground, and seems to rise to the occasion.

He should be top 5 soon. I think that Raonic had some top 5 ratings a while back.

Going forward, Shap has a good shot at a major.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
DUH, Meles, way to totally miss my point. Both are the same in that they don't shave or barely need a razor, thus will gain more strength!

As opposed to some of these young guys who look like they finished puberty at age 13. (Exaggeration, but I feel like I have to be Captain Obvious tonight.)

FAA reminds me a bit of young Pancho Gonzalez (going on what I read about him) and young Sampras.) I like everything about his game. As for how much Denis can peak, I'm not the guy who predicts. I like his game but have doubts about how high anyone can rise in this era who is not over 6 feet tall.
For Denis his height could be an advantage if he can get to a strong serve game and he's back on course for that goal.:p
 
The only downsides I see for Denis: Guys who win slams usually win at least 53% of points and 56% of games on their best surface, and even that's on the low side. So you are looking at a split like this:

80/32
82/30
.....
88/24

Hard is normally a good place to start except for guys like Nadal and Thiem.

Start here:

https://www.atptour.com/en/players/roger-federer/f324/player-stats?year=2002&surfaceType=hard

87/25, 53% of points.

But go back one year, to 2001

83/24, 52% of points, and you really want a decimal for points.

2003 was the year Fed took off, 87/28, ATP says 60% of points because they screwed up the whole year and have never admitted it. Probably around 57% of points, which is another level.

Then 2004 and over 60% of games and around 55% of points.

Shapo was 84/21 before Miami, around 52.5% of games which normally would be around 51-51.5% of points. So we have to watch him. If that goes up to 56% of games and 53% of points and stays there for a year, he'll be threatening at majors and winning big titles regularly. I don't think he's there yet.

FAA is already higher this year, and that's before Miami. He's got the right numbers for a future ATG, but we need them over more time to see how it levels out. If he keeps going up in these stats, he's going to be the guy to beat. He's got a better return game, and it's highly unlikely that he won't have a much more effective serve than Denis because of his height and easy power.
 
DUH, Meles, way to totally miss my point. Both are the same in that they don't shave or barely need a razor, thus will gain more strength!

As opposed to some of these young guys who look like they finished puberty at age 13. (Exaggeration, but I feel like I have to be Captain Obvious tonight.)

FAA reminds me a bit of young Pancho Gonzalez (going on what I read about him) and young Sampras.) I like everything about his game. As for how much Denis can peak, I'm not the guy who predicts. I like his game but have doubts about how high anyone can rise in this era who is not over 6 feet tall.
Shapo’s lefty serve will overcome the fact of being altitudinally challenged a couple of inches from prime height. Playing all those 40-30 and 30-40 points with his slice serve out wide is a big advantage. Best lefty server since Goran!
 
For Denis his height could be an advantage if he can get to a strong serve game and he's back on course for that goal.:p
Do you see his game stabilizing enough to get around 88% of games on HC on serve, and picking up those numbers on return? I think he's great fun to watch, but do you think he can get beyond being streaky?

When looking to the young guys who have a big upside on the serve, I always compare with young Fed. I think of his clean service game. You don't want to see a great server throwing away points on DFs even if they get a lot of aces, which is why I plot the net, subtracting DFs from aces and then seeing the result. For example, Fed served 405 aces but 203 DFs back in 2000, so a 2/1 ratio is not bad for a young player. He barely won 50% of points that year. We have to keep that in mind when watching young, aggressive players with a ton of talent who are still learning control and tactics.

Can you see him developing a Fed-like and Sampras-like serve dominant game at his height? He does have long arms, which makes him a "tall" six footer. I'd love to see a shorter guy win multliple majors again. But I won't really believe it until it happens, although 6 foot even is awfully close to that magic 6'1" height that was great for Sampras and Fed.
 
Shapo’s lefty serve will overcome the fact of being altitudinally challenged a couple of inches from prime height. Playing all those 40-30 and 30-40 points with his slice serve out wide is a big advantage. Best lefty server since Goran!
Yikes, all that enthusiasm, I thought you were @Meles. ;)

For the record, I REALLY hope you are right!

Incidentally, have you noticed that a number of stronger and more powerful servers than the norm (like Thiem) are lacking that sneaky wide slice? They serve over 130 mph but there is little element of surprise...
 
Yikes, all that enthusiasm, I thought you were @Meles. ;)

For the record, I REALLY hope you are right!

Incidentally, have you noticed that a number of stronger and more powerful servers than the norm (like Thiem) are lacking that sneaky wide slice? They serve over 130 mph but there is little element of surprise...
Yes, a lot of throwers instead of pitchers. Too bad fedr wasn’t a lefty with his variety...he might have 30 slams!
 
Yes, a lot of throwers instead of pitchers. Too bad fedr wasn’t a lefty with his variety...he might have 30 slams!
If lefties have such a huge advantage in tennis, we should see that statistically. Supposed 1/10 is left-handed, all people, so we could tally up the top players of all time and see how many of them are/were lefties. Today Nadal obviously, then both Connors and JMac, same era, and Laver. If 1/5 or 1/6 of the best is a lefty, then that would tend to confirm that idea. And I'm guessing it is a reasonable amount better than 1/10!
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Do you see his game stabilizing enough to get around 88% of games on HC on serve, and picking up those numbers on return? I think he's great fun to watch, but do you think he can get beyond being streaky?

When looking to the young guys who have a big upside on the serve, I always compare with young Fed. I think of his clean service game. You don't want to see a great server throwing away points on DFs even if they get a lot of aces, which is why I plot the net, subtracting DFs from aces and then seeing the result. For example, Fed served 405 aces but 203 DFs back in 2000, so a 2/1 ratio is not bad for a young player. He barely won 50% of points that year. We have to keep that in mind when watching young, aggressive players with a ton of talent who are still learning control and tactics.

Can you see him developing a Fed-like and Sampras-like serve dominant game at his height? He does have long arms, which makes him a "tall" six footer. I'd love to see a shorter guy win multliple majors again. But I won't really believe it until it happens, although 6 foot even is awfully close to that magic 6'1" height that was great for Sampras and Fed.
Shapo early 2018 was 66.7% serve points won and then fell off cliff with post Wimby serve change. With those early numbers Sampras only comparable. Now he’s around 68.0% which if that holds for year is nice step at age 20. 70.0% would render him much more effective on serve than Cilic. Shapo does it with first strike so ace/df may not work same for him.
 
That was a helluva good match with outcome uncertain right up to the end!

Did think Stefanos would prevail in the end but Denis upped his level and was surprisingly clutch in those 2 final sets especially the breaker. He cut down on his usual errors and focussed on winning. Is he finally maturing into the kind of player we all suspected he could be? Tonight was certainly a promising start.
if this is the future of tennis... i'm in ! :)
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Yikes, all that enthusiasm, I thought you were @Meles. ;)

For the record, I REALLY hope you are right!

Incidentally, have you noticed that a number of stronger and more powerful servers than the norm (like Thiem) are lacking that sneaky wide slice? They serve over 130 mph but there is little element of surprise...
Thiem primarily is going back to being a kick server. He certainly can pull wide on both sides, but such a serve has less disguise when you hit it all the time. The motion has less disguise and that is what you’ve probably picked up on. Thiem’s T serve is lacking some of the time and it is the heater you see most of the time. Massu seems to have his velocity down to more Nadal like levels for obvious reasons. Works very well when Thiem serves 70-80% first serves.

Shapo has hook serve which is another beast, but goal is to setup fist shot like with Thiem. As Shapo’s confidence grows it will be real asset on the ad side. Both serve very differently from what has been done before.:p
 
The next crop of potential top 10ers has arrived with a couple of Canadian teens in the group....but please, we can't be talking Slams yet. There is always new talent emerging, but we need to see it stick for a while before we talk slams.
 

EllieK

Professional
Very high quality match, especially the 3rd set. A few mistakes from Tsitsipas and great play from Shapo in the tie break was all that separated them. I'm excited about the future of the game with these two and a lot of the others in their age group. A lot to look forward to.
 
The next crop of potential top 10ers has arrived with a couple of Canadian teens in the group....but please, we can't be talking Slams yet. There is always new talent emerging, but we need to see it stick for a while before we talk slams.
Never too early to dream though. I'm pretty tired of the big 3 personally. Tennis should be a game of 20-somethings not 30-somethings. The unbridled enthusiasm and confidence of youth makes far more interesting matches than cool clinical precision of veterans.
 
Wow, what a great match! My wife and I stayed up past midnight to watch the conclusion. I like both players a lot, but was pulling for Shapovalov. Shapo has a wicked forehand and he started serving like a maniac in the 2nd set. This match was highly entertaining.

I'm drinking tons of coffee this morning to try and stay awake. But losing sleep over this match was definitely worth it. Congrats to both players for a great match. As long as Shapo doesn't play Federer, I will pull for him to win every single match.
 
Very high quality match, especially the 3rd set. A few mistakes from Tsitsipas and great play from Shapo in the tie break was all that separated them. I'm excited about the future of the game with these two and a lot of the others in their age group. A lot to look forward to.
But who's going to win the slams? Big 3 won't win all of them that much longer, so unless you think LostGen will monopolise the slams that big 3 don't get, some of these NextGen guys WILL be slam winners.

(Sent from my mobile phone.)
 

EllieK

Professional
If lefties have such a huge advantage in tennis, we should see that statistically. Supposed 1/10 is left-handed, all people, so we could tally up the top players of all time and see how many of them are/were lefties. Today Nadal obviously, then both Connors and JMac, same era, and Laver. If 1/5 or 1/6 of the best is a lefty, then that would tend to confirm that idea. And I'm guessing it is a reasonable amount better than 1/10!

And Nadal only plays lefty. He is right hand dominant. I wonder why Coric and Haase would choose to play right handed if being a leftie was such an advantage.
 
I think Tsitsipas will have an advantage on natural surfaces of grass and clay in the medium term.

Also, unlike Shapovalov, he have never lost to noobs in Slams since 2018, I mean, he is not likely to be upsetted.
 
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