ATP year-end #1?
- Thread starter Aabye5
- Start date
Mediterranean Might
Professional
I'm liking Nadal's chances if he can play the NA hardcourt swing. If not, then it's scary to say but Zed is looking in serious contention as is Alcaraz and of course Medvedev if he can bring his hardcourt form again this summer.
TripleATeam
G.O.A.T.
With Alcaraz out and Rafa the favorite to win RG, it would push Rafa to 5620 points. Since Wimbledon isn't rewarding any this year, it means that going into Canada it'll be Rafa with 5620, Alcaraz with about 3820, and everyone else even further back.
Canada/Cincinnati/USO - If Nadal can pull off about 1500 points here, that'll be fantastic for his chances (M1000 F + QF, USO SF). It should keep him well ahead of any of the others. I'd say at max, any of the next group (Alcaraz/Tsitsipas or potentially Zverev) would get 2500, so the gap could be at least 1000 points after USO.
Asia 500/Shanghai/Paris - Nadal will likely underperform, but as long as it's not Alcaraz or Tsitsipas eating up the points here it should be fine and he'd still have a lead.
ATP Finals - The points for grabs here are massive and a huge swing. It'll depend on Rafa's condition at this point in the year and the rest of the 4 top contenders. I see Nadal scraping up some RR wins, potentially the SF, but not the F.
Conclusion:
As long as Nadal does win RG, he's the favorite. To stay #1 until the end of the year, though, would take some help from Tsitsipas, Zverev, and notably Alcaraz. If any of them have a particularly great season on the late hard court, they'll be the favorite to win. Nonetheless, by default it should be Rafa.
Canada/Cincinnati/USO - If Nadal can pull off about 1500 points here, that'll be fantastic for his chances (M1000 F + QF, USO SF). It should keep him well ahead of any of the others. I'd say at max, any of the next group (Alcaraz/Tsitsipas or potentially Zverev) would get 2500, so the gap could be at least 1000 points after USO.
Asia 500/Shanghai/Paris - Nadal will likely underperform, but as long as it's not Alcaraz or Tsitsipas eating up the points here it should be fine and he'd still have a lead.
ATP Finals - The points for grabs here are massive and a huge swing. It'll depend on Rafa's condition at this point in the year and the rest of the 4 top contenders. I see Nadal scraping up some RR wins, potentially the SF, but not the F.
Conclusion:
As long as Nadal does win RG, he's the favorite. To stay #1 until the end of the year, though, would take some help from Tsitsipas, Zverev, and notably Alcaraz. If any of them have a particularly great season on the late hard court, they'll be the favorite to win. Nonetheless, by default it should be Rafa.
TimHenmanATG
Hall of Fame
Norrie.
martinezownsclay
Hall of Fame
Probably Nadal, even with his limited schedule.
Aabye5
G.O.A.T.
NOT NORRIE....
TimHenmanATG
Hall of Fame
Aabye5
G.O.A.T.
I don't see a real chance for Djokovic, because Wimbledon doesn't award points and he likely cannot play much in America. He cannot compensate for almost no Slam points.
D
Deleted member 791948
Guest
It'll be almost impossible for anyone else to win year-end-#1 if Nadal stays healthy 
He's also got a huge shot at Calendar Year Grand Slam, because he's the most likely winner of the US Open, and has been great at Wimbledon the last 2 years he played it (2018 and 2019).
He's also got a huge shot at Calendar Year Grand Slam, because he's the most likely winner of the US Open, and has been great at Wimbledon the last 2 years he played it (2018 and 2019).
Impossible. The Dude is not allowed to play USO. I think if he does not win Wimbledon, he may not qualify for the YEC
GabeT
G.O.A.T.
It’s incredible how consistently wrong you areIt'll be almost impossible for anyone else to win year-end-#1 if Nadal stays healthy
He's also got a huge shot at Calendar Year Grand Slam, because he's the most likely winner of the US Open, and has been great at Wimbledon the last 2 years he played it (2018 and 2019).
AnOctorokForDinner
Talk Tennis Guru
Nadal of course. Roflmao!
I Am Finnish
Bionic Poster
Fedr
DSH
Talk Tennis Guru
DIMI_D
Hall of Fame
Nadal If healthy will only play selectively as he always stated which is smart -
Wimby
Canada
Us open
Laver cup Exho
Paris masters
Tour finals
Obviously depends on how far he gets in the important comps obviously no points in Wimby just the prestige of a slam. That out-weights the points.
will come to how much the other guys play other tournaments to accumulate points.
Wimby
Canada
Us open
Laver cup Exho
Paris masters
Tour finals
Obviously depends on how far he gets in the important comps obviously no points in Wimby just the prestige of a slam. That out-weights the points.
will come to how much the other guys play other tournaments to accumulate points.
DSH
Talk Tennis Guru
By getting COVID a third time and claiming immunity…
Do you seriously think Tsitsipas will win outside clay. He is done for the season.
Zverev will be out for 4-5 months.
1.Nadal (if plays US and wimby)
2.Alcaraz
3.Medvedev
4.Zverev (if returns in time for USO)
5.Tsitsipas
6.Djokovic
Aabye5
G.O.A.T.
Rafa could very well earn the #1 ranking again, although whenever a player is injured I like to hear some news before granting them wins.
Actually, it might not be someone on that list at all
You were talking about year end NO 1.Rafa could very well earn the #1 ranking again, although whenever a player is injured I like to hear some news before granting them wins.
Actually, it might not be someone on that list at all
If he doesn't plays remaining two slams alcaraz will play atleast 10-12 events and will bridge the gap till the end of the year.
Historically Nadal hasn't been good in indoor so he has to earn maximum till USO to seal his spot.
Aabye5
G.O.A.T.
I can see that. I can also see some other players taking it away from Rafa and Carlitos.
Edit: although I won't mind if Alcaraz knocks Hewitt from his perch as youngest #1
T
TheNachoMan
Guest
lol
Aabye5
G.O.A.T.
President
Legend
Agreed. He will play a lot because he is young and can recover quickly. Nadal will only play a limited number of tournaments due to his age, Tsitsipas is in a funk, Zverev is injured, and Med really didn’t get enough points in the first half of the season.
Genious at Work
G.O.A.T.
As a Nadal fan it hurts me to see Djokerer fans scrapping for the marginally important records now that the slam race is at least temporarily out of reach.
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