ATP500 Japan Open, Tokyo 2023

Who wins?


  • Total voters
    16
  • Poll closed .
Shame for Hurkacz. Well, it was always going to be a challenge backing up his heroics in Shanghai in the week directly after. Hopefully he will get a rest and make a final push for the WTF ... Although his chances probably aren't that good to make it.
 
De Minaur toying with Diego.

At one point was 4-0 up with a double break, Schwartzman had won just 1 points in each game totalling 4.

Anyway, first set bagel delivered.
 
Not just top 20, he's still top 10! Even worse.
Exactly! Am I wrong or compare this crop of top 20 or 30 to 2003-2009 or 2012-2018.....way less "upsets".
I keep an eye on challenger level tournaments and there have been so many top 200 players beating top 100 players it's quite unbelievable....
 
Karatsev thru against Zhang, 6-3, 6-4. Aslan wasn't serving particularly well, under 50% first serves, but lost only one point behind it. And he won't almost 70% of his second serves. Zhang was certainly no Agassi today. No break points for Zhang.
 
Shelton has a very Nadal-esque CC forehand, same whip to it and a way to reset points

It is not so much the Nadal whip as the regular lefty trick to play to the weaker side of the right hander with a lot of spin from time to time.

To little data but funny to look at the guys getting the fewest backhand DTL winners in the last 52 weeks. Do you spot some tendency?

Player​
Matches​
SnV Freq​
SnV W%​
Net Freq​
Net W%​
FH Wnr%​
FH DTL Wnr%​
FH IO Wnr%​
BH Wnr%​
BH DTL Wnr%​
Drop Freq​
Drop Wnr%​
RallyAgg​
ReturnAgg​
6​
10.9%​
58.8%​
11.8%​
68.6%​
14.7%​
23.7%​
11.3%​
9.3%​
9.8%​
0.9%​
46.7%​
-8​
8​
7​
4.6%​
82.6%​
12.1%​
71.6%​
18.2%​
24.9%​
12.4%​
6.8%​
9.5%​
2.1%​
32.4%​
27​
29​
5​
7.6%​
75.0%​
13.1%​
63.6%​
10.4%​
15.7%​
2.9%​
4.6%​
8.8%​
1.9%​
33.3%​
-43​
-38​
8​
1.0%​
50.0%​
10.3%​
64.2%​
12.3%​
20.8%​
7.2%​
7.2%​
7.5%​
0.6%​
42.9%​
-46​
-37​
10​
11.2%​
61.2%​
12.9%​
65.6%​
15.2%​
25.1%​
7.9%​
4.0%​
5.2%​
2.1%​
13.8%​
-9​
28​
 
Here we have the upper part of the same stat:

A bit too few matches for Old Stan for my taste but it shows a lot of good swinging. Thiem and Wawrinka have arguably a one-hander as an attacking asset while Tsitsipas has it not. Medvedev, Djokovic, Sinner and Alcaraz exactly in the order I anticipated and also ranked by their aggressiveness.

Match Charting Project: Men's Tactics Leaders: Last 52
Player​
Matches​
FH Wnr%​
FH DTL Wnr%​
FH IO Wnr%​
BH Wnr%​
BH DTL Wnr%​
11​
14.7%​
21.3%​
21.7%​
11.3%​
33.9%​
15​
15.5%​
20.2%​
15.7%​
7.4%​
33.8%​
22​
13.3%​
16.5%​
9.5%​
9.1%​
32.0%​
17​
19.7%​
25.5%​
23.1%​
11.5%​
30.9%​
19​
17.7%​
21.2%​
14.7%​
10.9%​
30.7%​
19​
14.4%​
23.3%​
11.6%​
7.1%​
30.5%​
31​
15.4%​
18.6%​
12.1%​
9.0%​
30.4%​
21​
14.1%​
20.8%​
17.1%​
6.9%​
28.9%​
20​
23.4%​
27.1%​
27.1%​
7.3%​
27.7%​
15​
13.9%​
18.1%​
18.5%​
7.7%​
27.1%​
28​
14.5%​
20.0%​
10.2%​
6.2%​
26.5%​
13​
12.9%​
16.4%​
9.1%​
7.1%​
23.8%​
51​
17.1%​
24.4%​
13.1%​
8.6%​
23.8%​
10​
10.3%​
15.5%​
6.1%​
4.4%​
22.5%​
12​
12.8%​
15.8%​
15.3%​
4.0%​
22.2%​
16​
11.7%​
13.9%​
11.0%​
4.8%​
22.2%​
48​
12.8%​
19.1%​
13.6%​
6.3%​
21.9%​
6​
9.5%​
12.4%​
4.3%​
5.0%​
21.4%​
13​
10.8%​
13.0%​
18.1%​
7.2%​
21.3%​
42​
13.6%​
17.8%​
16.0%​
7.4%​
20.6%​
15​
14.6%​
19.7%​
8.1%​
8.6%​
20.5%​
16​
12.8%​
19.7%​
8.8%​
7.5%​
20.0%​
73​
10.6%​
14.6%​
14.0%​
6.3%​
20.0%​
 
Shintaro moves so fast!!! That running backhand passing shot to end the first set was unbelievable. He had to sprint from one tram line to the other while hitting 2hbh DTL.
 
Shame Shelton slumped so bad in the middle part of the season... Just a handful more wins here and there, and he would have had a real shot at Turin - where his game and overall presence would have definitely been an asset. Love him or hate him, the kid can catalyze attention like few others in the current tennis landscape.
 
Mochizuki makes Nishikori and Nishioka look like Schwarzenegger and Stallone. Incredible talent though, remember watching him win Wimbledon in 2019 with one of the most exciting and unusual tennis displays ever seen. Almost impossible to be a factor in the pro ranks with that type of game and that type of physique... But he has slowly worked on "standardizing" his play style, and it's great to see that he can perhaps at least make it onto the main tour.
 
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So an all unseeded lineup coming in the SF's...

Mochizuki
Popyrin
Karatsev
Shelton
Giron

One of those guys will be the champ..
These un-anticipated results are interesting, The 'underdogs' biting back! Loool! None of Paul / Auger Aliassime / de Minaur could even manage a set off their opponent.

Most higher ranked players seem allergic to reaching the deeper stages of tournaments of late . This leaves an ideal opportunity for some of the normally classed
' also rans' to find momentum, and perhaps win a title - making hay whilst the sun shines.

Mochizuki, ranked 215 / Popyrin, ranked 41 / Karstsev, ranked 50 / Giron, ranked 79 and Shelton - ranked 19. One of these will lift the trophy. The obvious choice seems to be Shelton on ranking. That will make some on this board even more miserable! Looool!
 
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